展望后市，分析人士认为，情绪价值与体验消费精准触达当下需求痛点，其商业价值正在快速兑现，新 消费板块趋势性行情有望延续。 ● 谭丁豪 葛瑶 2025年新消费板块成港股关注焦点，7月8日老铺黄金股价盘中再创历史新高。消费逻辑正悄然发生转 变，供给侧改革成为驱动行业增长的核心引擎。同时，政策支持、消费倾向转变与产业创新三重因素共 振，推动新消费板块持续走强。 供给端驱动消费升级 7月8日，老铺黄金上涨4.54%，盘中股价触及1108港元/股，再创历史新高。今年以来，"港股三姐妹"中 的泡泡玛特、老铺黄金分别累计上涨201.96%、352.48%，蜜雪集团股价距发行价累计上涨166.17%；此 外，多只新消费标的表现同样亮眼，毛戈平累计上涨81.67%，布鲁可、古茗距发行价分别累计上涨 142.92%、178.67%。 中信建投证券纺服轻工及教育行业首席分析师叶乐认为，新消费业态的出现主要源于两方面因素：一是 消费行业投资逻辑正从需求端逐步转向供给端。过去消费增长多由需求拉动，而近年来需求端增速放 缓，市场更关注具备产品创新、技术创新能力的企业。这类企业能够通过创新开拓新需求，实现非线性 高增长。二是"95后""0 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rise on July 8, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3500 points, driven by a surge in the "anti-involution" concept sector, particularly the photovoltaic (PV) industry [1] - Multiple stocks in the photovoltaic supply chain experienced significant gains, with Yamaton achieving a rare "limit-up" performance, and the PV leader ETF rising over 5% [1] - The main contract for polysilicon reached its limit-up price, increasing by 7% to 38,385 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on July 3 to discuss accelerating high-quality development in the photovoltaic industry, indicating a focus on structural reforms [4] - JinkoSolar noted that silicon material prices are dynamically related to industry inventory levels and downstream operating rates, suggesting a consensus in the industry for "anti-involution" to drive long-term price recovery [4] - Huachuang Securities reported that recent calls for "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic sector, including silicon material storage and glass production cuts, have strengthened expectations for supply-side structural reforms [4] Group 3 - On June 29, a significant article highlighted that the top ten domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers decided to collectively reduce production by 30% due to market supply-demand imbalances [5] - The head of the Guangzhou Institute of Energy Research stated that the reduction aims to seek greater survival space amid an oversupply situation in the photovoltaic industry [5] - Guolian Minsheng Securities emphasized that the photovoltaic glass industry has notable first-mover advantages and significant economies of scale, with leading companies gaining a competitive edge in supply chain management [5]

Core Viewpoint - Peter Navarro criticizes Jerome Powell, suggesting he may become the worst Federal Reserve Chairman in history if he continues with tight monetary policy despite data suggesting a need for rate cuts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Historical Comparisons - Navarro compares Powell to past Federal Reserve Chairmen, including Arthur Burns, who maintained low interest rates leading to inflation, and Alan Greenspan, who raised rates unnecessarily, contributing to the dot-com bubble and subsequent recession [4]. - Ben Bernanke is mentioned for failing to foresee the 2008 financial crisis, which escalated due to his inaction [5]. Group 2: Powell's Tenure - Powell's tenure began with a commitment to a supportive stance, but he aggressively raised rates during a period of low inflation and high growth under Trump, misjudging the economic impact of tax cuts and deregulation [4][6]. - In 2018, despite moderate inflation and a strong labor market, Powell's Federal Reserve raised rates four times, leading to a significant slowdown in economic momentum, with GDP growth expectations dropping from over 3% to 1.5% [6].

有色金属周报(工业硅&多晶硅) 情绪带动，硅系价格走势坚挺 2025年7月8日 宏源期货研究所 010-8229 5006 祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060） 摘要 | | 工业硅 | 多晶硅 | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 成本&利润：西南产区逐步进入平水期，电力成本逐步下移， |  供给端：7月部分企业出现增产，主要集中在西南地区和青 | | | 硅煤、硅石等原料价格亦有下探。成本端对硅价支撑不足。 | 海地区，也有部分企业停产检修，增减相抵后，预计月产 | |  | 供给端：西南地区个别地区开始实行丰水期优惠电价，且厂家 | 量增至11万吨左右。 | | | 有长单需交付，开炉增加，此外，北方内蒙古、甘肃及宁夏地 |  需求端：偏弱。终端来看，在行业抢装下，1-5月光伏新增 | | | 区开炉亦有增加，贡献主要增量；新疆地区个别小厂开炉增加， | 装机197.79GW，累计同比增加142.72%，严重透支下半年 | | | 大厂开炉减少，预计后期供应或增加。 | 需求，国内订单萎缩明显，海外订单相对稳定，远期组件 | |  | 需求端：7月多晶硅头部企业有增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant surge due to the "anti-involution" trend, which aims to eliminate low-price competition and promote high-quality development [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 8, the A-share photovoltaic sector saw a broad rally, with stocks like Topray Solar and Tongwei Co. hitting the daily limit, while Daqo New Energy and Aiko Solar rose over 10% [1][2]. - The CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index increased by over 5% in a single day, and the photovoltaic ETF funds also saw gains of around 5% [2]. - In the Hong Kong market, the photovoltaic solar energy index rose by 6.17%, with companies like Shunfeng Clean Energy and Sunshine Energy experiencing significant increases of 30.43% and 15.48%, respectively [3][4]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Response - The surge in the photovoltaic sector is largely attributed to recent government initiatives aimed at curbing "involution" in competition, as highlighted by various government meetings and articles advocating for high-quality development [5][6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need to eliminate low-price competition and improve product quality within the photovoltaic industry [5]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic demand for photovoltaic installations surged in May 2025, with a record addition of 92.92 GW, marking a 388.03% year-on-year increase [6][8]. - However, the industry is expected to see a significant decline in installation numbers following the rush to secure policy benefits, indicating a potential return to more sustainable levels [6]. - Exports of photovoltaic components have been lackluster, with a 4% year-on-year decline in the first five months of 2025 compared to the previous year [8][10]. Group 4: Material Supply and Pricing - The price of silicon materials, which significantly impacts the photovoltaic industry, is under pressure due to high inventory levels and low demand, with current production capacity nearing its limits [15][17]. - The average price of domestic polysilicon has decreased to 35 yuan per kilogram, reflecting ongoing challenges in the supply chain [19]. - The industry faces difficulties in achieving "anti-involution" primarily at the silicon material level, while other segments like silicon wafers and modules may see easier adjustments through capacity restrictions [20].

Core Viewpoint - The effectiveness of cyclical investment is recovering, with indicators showing a positive correlation between stock price movements and recent earnings growth since June, suggesting that market performance is increasingly guided by economic conditions [1] Group 1: Resource Products - Price Increases: Resource products such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals have seen continuous price increases due to tight supply and marginal demand improvement, leading to higher earnings certainty for Q2 [1] - Supply Clearing: Industries like steel, building materials, coal, and chemicals are experiencing accelerated supply reduction, which, combined with demand recovery, is expected to enhance earnings elasticity and reverse industry challenges [2] - Q2 Earnings Clues: Key resource product categories with significant earnings revisions since Q2 include building materials (coatings, glass fiber, cement), chemicals (fertilizers, pesticides), steel (special steel), and non-ferrous metals (nickel, cobalt, gold, copper) [2] Group 2: AI Computing Power - Performance Divergence: Since June, there has been a notable divergence within the AI sector, with upstream hardware (PCB, optical modules) outperforming midstream software services and downstream applications [3] - North American Computing Chain: The North American computing chain, represented by optical modules and PCBs, has shown enhanced earnings certainty, with significant upward revisions in Q2 earnings, contrasting with downward adjustments in domestic computing chains [3] - Earnings as a Key Driver: The performance of various segments within the AI industry has been closely correlated with the extent of Q2 earnings revisions, indicating that earnings certainty is becoming a critical factor in pricing within the tech sector [3]

每经编辑｜彭水萍 今日A股三大指数集体上涨，沪指涨0.7%，深成指涨1.47%，创业板指涨2.39%，北证50指数涨1.36%，全市场成交额达1.47万亿元。光伏50ETF（159864） 今日涨幅达5.9%。 上涨驱动因素分析 "反内卷"行情再起 迄今为止，光伏行业共经历了两次"反内卷"行情： 第一次是在去年四季度，"反内卷"趋势下行业逐渐形成自律：2024年10月，中国光伏行业协会举行防止行业"内卷式"恶性竞争专题座谈会，发布公允组件成 本，供全行业和政府监管部门参考，旨在破除行业"内卷式"竞争，促进行业健康发展；2024年11月，工信部公告了《光伏制造行业规范条件（2024年 本）》；2024年12月，数家光伏企业在中国光伏行业协会的组织下，签订了自律公约。 第二次就是在当下，"反内卷"预期再起：2025年6月29日，人民日报发表文章《在破除"内卷式"竞争中实现高质量发展》，点名光伏行业"内卷式"竞争； 2025年7月1日，中央财经委员会第六次会议明确要求，依法治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出，成为国家层面给出的"反内卷"政策新信号； 2025年7月3日，工业和信息化部主持召开的第十五次制造业 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 王彦青 来源 | CFC金属研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 核心观点 政策交易或移至时点的确认： 短期来看市场仍在交易供给侧调控预期，政策走强下硅料厂报涨又反过来加重多头情绪，预期交易 的情绪底已经基本显现。从预期交易角度看，我们认为应当继续保持对本轮供给侧调控力度的信心，产能兼并、落后产能淘汰以 及低价商品调控等均是值得期待的方向；但从节奏上看，预计后市交易节奏或将逐步转移到对政策落地时点的确认，随着市场分 歧加剧，盘面波动或将继续放大 弱现实下，议价权或仍未转移： 但弱现实压力也是当下的行情的隐忧，7月受头部厂商复产影响，多晶硅环节大幅增产，同时8月 供应压力或也将继续增加，然而下游硅片环节专业化厂商出现减产直接利空多晶硅需求，下半年多晶硅或将重回累库通道。因 此，现货的议价权或仍在下游手中，硅料厂报涨后下游能否顺利接受依然存在变数 策略上关注跨品种对冲： 因此总体来看，情绪底后多晶硅期货继续上行需要额外的利多继续刺激，但短期看并未见到基本面的改 善以及时点的确认，故高波动下单边策略或有波动加大风险，策略上可以关注跨品种交易加以对冲保护。相对确定的是，供给 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices in China experienced collective gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.39% [1][3]. - The photovoltaic sector saw significant ETF performance, with multiple ETFs such as the Photovoltaic 50 ETF rising by 5.90% and the E Fund Photovoltaic ETF increasing by 5.57% [1][10]. Sector Performance - In the A-share market, the telecommunications, power equipment, and electronics sectors led the day with gains of 2.89%, 2.3%, and 2.27% respectively, while utilities, banking, and household appliances lagged behind with declines [6]. - Over the past five trading days, the construction materials, steel, and comprehensive sectors showed strong performance with increases of 5.71%, 5.43%, and 3.67% respectively [6]. ETF Market Activity - The overall performance of ETFs indicated that thematic stock ETFs had the best average gain of 1.46%, while bond ETFs showed no change [8]. - The top-performing ETFs included the Photovoltaic 50 ETF, Photovoltaic Leader ETF, and E Fund Photovoltaic ETF, with returns of 5.90%, 5.57%, and 5.57% respectively [10]. - The top three ETFs by trading volume were the A500 ETF Fund, A500 ETF Huatai Baichuan, and A500 ETF Jiashi, with trading volumes of 3.73 billion, 3.37 billion, and 3.09 billion respectively [12][13]. Investment Trends - There is a notable influx of capital into the technology innovation sector, highlighted by the rapid issuance of the first batch of 10 technology innovation bond ETFs, which collectively raised 30 billion yuan [2]. - The introduction of technology innovation bond ETFs is seen as strategically significant, filling a gap in public funds within the "technology finance" bond fund sector and promoting targeted investment in hard technology [2].

证券研究报告 | 固定收益研究*周报 2025 年 07 月 08 日 固定收益研究 债市周观察（6.30-7.6）——"反内卷"和"供给侧改革 2.0"成 热门话题 上周，资金面跨季后回归充裕，DR007 中枢进一步下移至 1.42%附近，但 宽松流动性未能有效传导至债市利率，没有货币政策触发因素下，收益率 难以继续下台阶，债市延续窄幅波动。6 月初以来市场就开始博弈可能会 重启买卖国债，且对 7 月打开降息窗口也有一定猜测，临近季末，央行通 过延迟公布买卖国债数据和二季度货币政策例会通稿删除"择机降准降 息"表述的方式，释放信号瓦解了市场一致预期。7 月 2 日，央行公布 6 月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况，当月重启买卖国债预期完全落空。 另外，6 月 30 日，国家统计局公布了当月 PMI 数据，制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，前值为 49.5%，仍处于收缩区间，对债市影响不大。 7 月 1 日召开中央财经委员会第六次会议，会议中释放出"反内卷"的信 号，强调"要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业 提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出"。会议引发对"供给侧改革 2.0" 的政策导向预期 ...