Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, a major tax and spending initiative pushed by Trump, has passed both the House and Senate, awaiting Trump's signature [2][3][4] - The bill plans to reduce taxes by $4 trillion over the next decade while cutting at least $1.5 trillion in spending [5] - The bill is seen as a continuation of Trump's 2017 tax cuts, with increased spending on border security, defense, and energy production [6] Group 2 - Economists argue that the bill disproportionately benefits the wealthy through significant tax cuts, while essential healthcare and welfare programs for lower-income groups face substantial cuts [7] - The bill proposes to raise the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion, potentially increasing the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade according to the Congressional Budget Office [8][9] - The International Monetary Fund has warned that Trump's tax plan may exacerbate the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt burden [10] Group 3 - Traditional energy sectors, such as oil, natural gas, and coal, are expected to benefit from the bill, while renewable energy sectors like wind and solar will lose support [17] - The bill is anticipated to support the stock market, particularly benefiting cyclical industries, energy companies, industrial firms, financial sectors, and consumer goods due to reduced taxes and increased infrastructure spending [17] - The potential weakening of trust in the U.S. dollar and government bonds may lead to significant changes in the cryptocurrency market, with increased demand for cryptocurrencies as a hedge [17]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismisses concerns about the potential depreciation of the dollar undermining its status as the global reserve currency, emphasizing that the strength of the dollar is not directly linked to its price [1][2] Group 1: Dollar's Status and Policy - The dollar index has dropped nearly 11% in the first half of the year, marking the worst performance since 1973, amid concerns over Trump's policies, including tariffs and diplomatic stances [1] - Bessent asserts that the Trump administration is taking long-term measures to maintain the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [1] - He questions the notion that the current environment presents an opportunity for reduced reliance on the dollar, emphasizing that a reserve currency must allow for free trading [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Federal Reserve - Bessent expresses skepticism about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, indicating that the two-year U.S. Treasury yield suggests the benchmark rate is too high [2] - The current target for the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, while the two-year Treasury yield is approximately 3.76% [2] - He notes that if the Fed does not lower rates, the potential cut in September could be more significant [2] Group 3: Debt Strategy and Management - Bessent discusses the debt management strategy, indicating that the Treasury will consider the high two-year yield when making decisions about debt repayment [4] - He refrains from commenting on predictions regarding the reduction of the federal deficit by up to $11 trillion over the next decade due to Trump's policies, stating that long-term forecasts are difficult [4] - The next quarterly refinancing meeting is scheduled for July 30, where any changes in debt strategy will be announced [4]

25 年有望穿越债务周期，运营业务继续助 力转型突围 核心观点 近期，公司召开股东大会，管理层表示 2025 年到期债务已做好偿债铺排，年底有息负债 余额降至 1400 亿元左右。公司发布 5 月运营数据，1-5 月，公司运营业务收入 110.2 亿，同比持续增长。 资料来源：公司数据. 东方证券研究所预测. 每股收益使用最新股本全面摊薄计算. 龙湖集团 00960.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年07月02日） | 9.62 港元 | | 目标价格 | 10.24 港元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 19.68/7.33 港元 | | 总股本/流通 H 股（万股） | 698,718/698,718 | | H 股市值（百万港币） | 67,217 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 房地产 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 07 月 04 日 | 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 公司凭借大体量且较为优质的经营性资产融资置换信用债以优化债务结构，财务安 全性提升。行业下行期开发业务形成一定拖累，而经营业务支撑利润基本盘， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements by Atlanta Fed President Bostic highlight a cautious approach towards U.S. economic policy amid uncertainty, advocating for patience and a wait-and-see strategy to avoid detrimental adjustments in interest rate policy [1][3]. Economic Policy and Uncertainty - Bostic emphasized that making significant adjustments to monetary policy in the current uncertain environment is unwise, noting that the resilience of the U.S. macroeconomy provides a buffer for policymakers [3]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged this year, indicating a wait for more key economic signals before making decisions [3]. Tariff Policy and Inflation - Bostic is particularly focused on the impact of tariff policies, suggesting that price increases due to tariffs may manifest gradually rather than as a sudden spike, potentially leading to rising inflation expectations over time [4]. - He warned that if his assessment is correct, the U.S. economy could face prolonged high inflation pressures, which would pose significant challenges for future Federal Reserve policy decisions [4]. Labor Market Observations - Despite a positive employment report for June, Bostic noted subtle changes in the labor market, such as a slowdown in hiring, indicating a gradual softening of the labor market [4]. - He strongly advised the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to remain patient and wait for clearer economic conditions before making decisions to avoid unnecessary market volatility [4]. Government Debt Concerns - Bostic pointed out that the rising U.S. government debt levels will have significant implications for policymakers, as high debt servicing costs could crowd out resources for other important economic activities [5]. - He highlighted that the recently passed tax and spending bill could increase the deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion over ten years, raising concerns about the potential impact on fiscal policy and interest rates [5]. - Bostic expressed worry that if financial markets perceive the U.S. government debt as a rising risk, interest rates may move independently of Federal Reserve policy, creating substantial challenges for monetary policy formulation [5].

Core Points - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, heavily promoted by President Trump, was passed in the House of Representatives after a lengthy voting process [1][4] - The bill was approved in the Senate with a narrow margin of 51-50, with Vice President Vance casting the tie-breaking vote [2][4] - The legislation aims to reduce taxes by $4 trillion and cut spending by at least $1.5 trillion over the next decade [6][7] Legislative Process - The bill faced significant challenges in both the House and Senate, with debates and procedural votes extending over several days [4][5] - In the House, the bill passed with a slim margin of 219 votes in favor to 213 against, despite opposition from some Republican members [4][5] - The Senate's voting process was marked by a record-long debate, including a forced reading of the entire bill text [4][6] Financial Implications - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. debt ceiling by $5 trillion, leading to an average annual deficit of 7% and an increase in national debt by over $3.3 trillion by fiscal year 2034 [7][10] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill will result in a significant income disparity, with the wealthiest households seeing an increase in income while the poorest will experience a decrease [8][9] Political Dynamics - The passage of the bill highlights the deep polarization within U.S. politics, with significant dissent among Republican factions and unified opposition from Democrats [9] - The bill is expected to be a focal point in the upcoming midterm elections, with potential repercussions for Republican control of Congress [9] Economic Outlook - Analysts predict that the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill will exacerbate the already growing U.S. debt, which has surpassed $36 trillion [10] - The dollar has shown signs of weakness, recording its worst performance in decades, which may be linked to the anticipated economic impacts of the new legislation [10]

6月非农数据好于预期提振美元反弹，7月3日，国际金价高位回落，收盘跌近1%。 当天纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年8月黄金期价收盘下跌32.7美元，收于每盎司 3336美元，跌幅为0.97%。 强劲的非农数据一扫前一日ADP就业数据的阴霾，显示美国劳动市场依然具韧性，同时也令交易员削减 了对美联储可能于7月降息的押注。数据公布后，金价自日内高点跳水超1%。 当天纽约市场成交最活跃的9月白银期货上涨25美分，报每盎司37.040美元，涨幅为0.68%。 3日CME"美联储观察"工具最新数据显示，市场认为美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为95.3%，此前一日 这一概率仅为74.7%。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 在此背景下，纽约股市三大股指3日集体走高，标普500、纳斯达克指数均创下收盘新高。资本市场的强 劲表现，削弱了黄金的吸引力。而美元指数也从近期低位反弹，同样抑制了金价的上涨动能。 不过，有分析人士也表示，尽管短期金价面临回调压力，但美国即将生效的"大而美"税收和支出法案， 可能导致美国债务继 ...

Group 1 - The Atlanta Fed President Bostic emphasizes the need for patience in economic policy amid uncertainty, suggesting that a wait-and-see approach can prevent policy reversals on interest rates [1] - Bostic notes that the macroeconomic resilience provides space for maintaining patience, especially as Fed officials await the impact of tariffs and regulatory changes on the economy [1] - There is a divergence among Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts, with 10 decision-makers expecting at least two cuts by 2025, while 7 believe rates will remain unchanged throughout the year [1] Group 2 - The June employment report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics exceeded expectations, reducing market expectations for a rate cut in July [2] - Bostic acknowledges signs of softening in the labor market, including a slowdown in hiring, but asserts that the job market has not deteriorated [2] - The potential impact of rising U.S. government debt levels on decision-making is highlighted, with concerns that debt servicing costs may crowd out other activities, affecting prices and employment in a substantial way [2]

贝森特多次强调，他仅对美联储既往货币政策发表评论，而不会谈及其未来的决策。尽管如此，贝森特 坚持认为"两年期美债收益率正在传递隔夜利率过高的信号"。目前美联储设定的联邦基金利率目标区间 为4.25%-4.5%，而两年期国债收益率已回落至3.76%附近。 贝森特表示："目前我们的实际利率非常高"，他指的是经通胀调整后的利率。贝森特补充称："但再次 强调，这是他们(美联储)的决定。如果他们不降息，那可能意味着9月的降息幅度会更大。" 利率期货市场显示，交易员押注美联储将在9月会议上至少降息25个基点，而在7月会议上则预计不会有 任何变动。 当被问及是否同意美国总统特朗普关于美联储应将利率下调三个百分点的观点时，贝森特没有正面回 答。他重申市场正在释放降息信号，并补充说，在第一任期中，特朗普"在降息时机上，比美联储更正 确"。 智通财经APP获悉，美国财政部长贝森特质疑美联储政策制定者在利率问题上的判断，并重申他认为两 年期美国国债收益率释放出基准利率过高的信号。贝森特周四在接受采访时表示："联邦公开市场委员 会(FOMC)在利率决策上似乎存在判断偏差。" 当被问及政府住房金融主管Bill Pulte要求美联储主席 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices rose, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new highs [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 344.11 points (0.77%) to 44828.53 points, the Nasdaq rose by 207.97 points (1.02%) to 20601.10 points, and the S&P 500 gained 51.93 points (0.83%) to 6279.35 points [1] Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expected 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% [6] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating reduced inflationary pressure [6] - The ISM services index rose to 50.8 in June, indicating a return to expansion after a contraction in May [7] Tax Legislation Impact - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's large-scale tax and spending bill, which is expected to be signed into law [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the tax bill could complicate efforts to reduce fiscal deficits and debt burdens in the coming years, potentially increasing the deficit by $3.3 trillion [8][9] Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit widened in May to $71.5 billion, a 19% increase from April, driven by a larger decline in exports compared to imports [10] Company News - Lucid Motors reported a record delivery of 3,309 vehicles in Q2, a 38% year-over-year increase, with total deliveries for the first half of the year reaching 6,418, up nearly 50% from the previous year [11] - The growth in Lucid's deliveries is attributed to the rapid expansion of the global electric vehicle market and successful brand positioning [11]

美财长：或会在初期通过发行短债来满足融资需求 金十数据7月4日讯，美国财政部长贝森特周四表示，共和党的全面减税和支出法案颁布后，美国的融资 需求可能会上升。在债务上限限制解除后，财政部可能会通过增发短期美债来补充国库账户的资金。贝 森特表示："这项立法也帮助我们摆脱了那个糟糕的债务上限困境，正因为如此，我们此前不得不限制 发行债务。因此，我们很可能会在初期通过发行短期美债来补充财政部的一般账户。" ...