以下文章来源于国民经略 ，作者凯风 国民经略 . 在这里，读懂中国经济、城市和楼市 本文来自微信公众号： 国民经略 ，作者：凯风，题图来自：AI生成 01 人口危机最严峻的国家，出手了。 就此而言， 与其说是"单身税"，不如说是"全民生育税"。 不过，这笔税费与医疗保险深度捆绑，收入越高缴的越多，无论本国国民还是外国人，只要缴纳医疗 保险，都避无可避。 同时，无论有没有孩子都要出钱，而最终受益的只有育儿家庭，这与"单身税"或"丁克税"、"无孩 税"有了一定重合。 虽然并非传统"单身税"，但"单身税"之说并非空穴来风，在历史上"国家级逼婚"层出不穷。 古希腊、罗马曾对超过婚龄的单身男士征收"单身税"，有地方超过30岁的未婚男性，或被剥夺选举 权。 即使到了近现代，"单身税"仍然不绝于书。 苏联曾专门征收"未婚、独身和少子女公民税"，后调整为面向已婚无子女人士征收，即"无孩税"，直 到1992年才正式取消。 日本政府计划于2026年4月起实施"儿童与育儿支援金"制度，向所有人征收每年2400日元～12000日 元 （约120元～600元） 税费，用于补贴育儿家庭。 | 年收入 | 2026年度 | 2027年度 ...

以下文章来源于和讯商业 ，作者孟圆 商业世界的故事、逻辑、认知。由"和讯商业"团队出品。 和讯商业 . " 旺仔的眼睛是向上看的， 这 代表 旺旺 随时都要保持向上的目标 。 " 旺旺的创始人 蔡衍明 曾这 样说过。 然而， 6 月 24 日发布的财报却显露了向上的艰难： 2024 财年营收 235.11 亿元，同比微降 0.3% ； 净利润 43.36 亿元，同比增长 8.6% ， 呈现增利不增收，多项细分业务普遍承压。 纵观近十年，旺旺业绩发展接近停滞。百亿级大单品旺仔牛奶增长乏力，能显著拉动增长的新品仍未 出现，旺旺渐 渐 " 不旺 " 了 。 除了卖零食，旺旺这些年没少跨界，从医疗、酒店到保险、房地产，乃至养老、宠物、美妆、潮牌， 诸多热门赛道尝试均未激起水花。 今年 3 月，"旺旺集团"更名为"中国旺旺"（ 00151.HK ）引发情怀点赞，也未能转化为实际增长。 "旺旺近十年缺乏靓丽表现，甚至可以说在慢慢被边缘化，步入'中年节点'。" 食品 产业 分析师朱丹 蓬认为，无论品类创新、产品迭代还是渠道与营销升级，旺旺均未展现出足够亮点。尤其在休闲食品 领域，零食量贩渠道的崛起及特色新品的冲击，正对其构 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese government plans to implement a "Child Future Strategy" starting in 2026, requiring all citizens and businesses to pay a "support fund" through health insurance surcharges, with monthly contributions expected to range from 250 to 700 yen by 2028 [3] - The initiative aims to address Japan's declining birth rate, which is projected to fall below 700,000 newborns in 2024, with a birth rate of 1.2, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 [5] - The strategy includes expanding child allowances and providing educational subsidies to encourage marriage and childbirth among young people [5] Group 2 - In contrast, China faces similar demographic challenges, with a population decrease of 2.08 million in 2023 and a natural growth rate of -0.15‰, alongside a declining birth rate of 9.02 million [5] - The Chinese single population exceeds 240 million, with over 77 million living alone, indicating a significant economic burden on this demographic, which could be exacerbated by a potential "single tax" [6] - China has implemented various measures to encourage childbirth, including the promotion of two-child and three-child policies, extended parental leave, and increased investment in childcare services [7]

Group 1: Geopolitical Tensions and Market Reactions - The Iranian parliament has decided to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil transport, following a U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities [1][3] - The U.S. military's operation involved 125 aircraft and targeted three major Iranian nuclear sites, escalating tensions in the region [1][3] - Brent crude oil prices surged by 8%, exceeding $96 per barrel, as traders anticipated a potential blockade of the Strait [3][5] Group 2: Impact on Global Energy Supply - Asian countries, particularly China, Japan, and South Korea, heavily rely on the Strait for oil imports, with China importing 5 million barrels daily, which constitutes half of its oil imports from the Middle East [3][5] - If the Strait is closed, these countries may have to rely on strategic oil reserves, significantly impacting their energy security [5] Group 3: Shipping and Insurance Costs - Major shipping companies, including Maersk, have initiated emergency plans, rerouting over 50 oil tankers around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing travel distance by 7,000 kilometers and shipping costs by 250% [5][7] - War insurance costs for tankers have skyrocketed, with additional millions required per vessel [5] Group 4: Economic Consequences and Predictions - If oil prices stabilize above $120 per barrel, a global recession similar to the 1973 oil crisis could occur, as warned by Deutsche Bank [11] - The automotive industry is particularly vulnerable, with European manufacturers predicting a reduction of 100,000 vehicles per day if the blockade lasts over two weeks [13] Group 5: Strategic Implications for Major Players - Russia stands to benefit significantly from rising oil prices, gaining an additional $300 million in revenue for every $10 increase in oil prices [8] - U.S. shale oil producers are also expected to profit, with a 12% increase in drilling activity reported in a week due to rising prices [8] Group 6: Military and Security Developments - The U.S. Fifth Fleet has entered a state of full readiness, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has deployed its navy, indicating a potential escalation in military conflict [13][15] - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz poses a risk of becoming a flashpoint for broader military conflict, with significant implications for global supply chains [9][15]

Core Viewpoint - The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, coupled with U.S. involvement, has led to increased tensions, particularly regarding the potential closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, which could have significant implications for global energy markets. Group 1: Oil Supply Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil transport route, with approximately 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily, accounting for 30% of global seaborne oil trade and about 20% of global oil liquid consumption. A closure could result in a supply reduction of over 18 million barrels per day, nearly a 20% drop in global supply, potentially driving oil prices to $100 per barrel [3][4][6]. Group 2: LNG Trade Disruption - The Strait is also vital for liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, with around 95% of LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE relying on this route. A closure could lead to a 20% decrease in global LNG supply, significantly impacting energy markets in Europe and Asia, particularly raising prices in these regions [3][4]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Risks - Closing the Strait would likely trigger a global energy crisis, exacerbating geopolitical tensions. The economies of the U.S. and Europe heavily depend on Middle Eastern oil imports, and a blockage could lead to soaring energy prices and inflation, threatening economic stability, especially in Europe, which is already facing energy supply challenges due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4][6]. Group 4: Limitations of Alternative Routes - While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have some pipelines that bypass the Strait, their combined nominal capacity is only 6.7 million barrels per day, with 4.3 million barrels per day currently idle. This is insufficient to meet the daily demand of 17 million barrels, indicating that alternative routes cannot adequately mitigate the impact of a closure [6][7]. Group 5: Military and Energy Security Risks - Iran's threat to close the Strait could provoke military conflict with the U.S., which has deployed significant military resources in the region to ensure the passage remains open. Iran's growing military capabilities pose a risk of interference in the Strait, potentially escalating international tensions and complicating regional security [7].

邓正红软实力表示，伊朗和以色列之间的停火虽然脆弱，但至今仍在维持，地缘性软实力弱化。随着地缘政治担忧的消退，交易员已将注意力重新转向市场 基本面，而基本面继续表明下半年供应充足，供应端硬实力强势。8个欧佩克联盟成员国的增产正在加剧看空基调，石油软实力受压。邓正红理论中"商业模 式三齿轮结构"在此情境下体现为：战略齿轮——欧佩克市场份额争夺；战术齿轮——地缘风险定价模型调整；执行齿轮——实际产量与出口量变化。 【人物简介】邓正红，中国软实力之父，创立邓正红软实力思想和智库，建立软实力理论、软实力宇宙哲学、软实力函数、软实力指数工具、软实力油价分 析模型、商业模式效度齿轮结构和基于价值创新的科学-技术-产业三椎体模型，开创能源软实力、低碳软实力和产业软实力，第一个对软实力系统量化与价 值评价，拥有基于企业、城市、国家之软实力指数与软实力价值评估计算一整套自主知识产权，独家发布企业（世界软实力500强、中国上市公司软实力100 强、央企软实力排名）、城市（中国内地城市和地区软实力排序、中国国家高新区软实力排序）和国家（全球软实力100强）三大软实力排行榜，国家电网 《企业软实力丛书（核心价值、核心模式、核心实力）》 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government is implementing a nationwide social security fee, termed as "child-rearing support fund," to address the severe declining birth rate, rather than a tax specifically targeting single individuals [1][3]. Group 1: Population Crisis - Japan's birth rate has reached a historic low of 1.2, with only 758,600 births in 2023, significantly below the 2.1 needed to maintain population levels [1][3]. - The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research had predicted that the birth rate would fall below 760,000 by 2035, but this milestone was reached 12 years earlier than expected [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Implications - By 2028, the government plans to allocate 3.6 trillion yen annually for measures against declining birth rates, with 1 trillion yen sourced from the child-rearing support fund [3]. - The fee structure is income-based, with individuals earning 2 million yen paying 2,400 yen in 2026, increasing to 4,200 yen by 2028, while those earning over 10 million yen will pay 12,000 yen in 2026 and 19,800 yen in 2028 [3]. Group 3: Social Equity Concerns - The policy has sparked debates over social equity, as families with children can receive various subsidies, while single individuals or childless couples bear the financial burden without compensation [3][5]. - Over 60% of respondents oppose the policy, particularly younger individuals who feel it unfairly shifts the financial responsibility of child-rearing onto them [5]. Group 4: Structural Changes in Society - The lifelong unmarried rate has surged, with over 25% of men and nearly 20% of women choosing to remain single, reflecting a significant societal shift [5]. - Factors such as unstable income, high housing costs, and work pressure deter young people from marriage and childbearing, indicating that economic incentives alone may not suffice to encourage higher birth rates [5][6]. Group 5: Policy Implementation Challenges - The policy is viewed as a wealth redistribution mechanism, transferring resources from childless individuals to families with children, which may create adverse incentives [7]. - Concerns exist regarding the effective use of funds for child-rearing support and the potential for misuse or inefficiency in the implementation of the policy [7]. Group 6: Long-term Considerations - The policy may exacerbate societal divisions between single individuals and families, highlighting the tension between personal choice and collective societal interests [9]. - A comprehensive approach addressing systemic issues such as housing affordability, job stability, and educational burdens is essential for effectively tackling the declining birth rate [9].

Core Viewpoint - The incident involving the founder of Cat King Audio, Zeng Dejun, and Xiaomi's CEO Lei Jun highlights the impact of social media on public perception and the importance of crisis management in business operations. The event has raised questions about respect and public relations in the corporate world [1]. Group 1: Incident Overview - Zeng Dejun's video recalls a meeting over ten years ago with Lei Jun, where he felt disrespected after Lei dismissed his smart speaker project, stating it was a waste of time [3]. - The video sparked widespread discussion online, with many criticizing Lei Jun's attitude and calling for more respect from business leaders [4]. - Zeng later clarified that his comments were not intended as a malicious critique of Xiaomi, but rather an expression of personal disappointment [5]. Group 2: Xiaomi's Response - Xiaomi's executive Wang Hua responded, stating that Zeng's account of the meeting was inaccurate, as the project discussed was a WiFi audio system, not a smart speaker, which did not exist at that time [7]. - Wang emphasized that the alleged "cold treatment" and Lei's quick departure did not occur, asserting that Xiaomi maintains respect for entrepreneurs throughout the investment process [8]. - He reiterated Xiaomi's commitment to transparency and respect in dealings with all entrepreneurs, highlighting the importance of accurate recollection of events [9]. Group 3: Media and Public Opinion - The incident illustrates the rapid spread of information in the social media age, where personal grievances can quickly escalate into major public discussions [11]. - Media coverage has been criticized for being overly emotional and lacking fact-checking, complicating the situation further [12]. - Companies must develop effective crisis management strategies to address public relations challenges, as timely and clear communication is essential to restore trust [13]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The event underscores the complex relationship between public opinion, media influence, and crisis management in the modern business landscape [15]. - Companies and public figures must navigate the challenges of maintaining their image while managing personal emotions and public perceptions [15].

Group 1 - Japan's newborn birth rate has fallen below 700,000, with a total fertility rate dropping to below 1.2, breaking historical records. It is projected that by 2070, Japan's population may decrease from 120 million to 87 million [2][3] - The Japanese government is implementing a "Child and Childcare Support Fund" system starting in April 2026, which will impose monthly fees on individuals aged 20 and above without children and earning over 2 million yen annually, including foreign residents. The fees will range from 200 to 1,000 yen per month, with a maximum of 1,650 yen [3][4] - This initiative has been interpreted by the public as a "single tax," leading to significant controversy and debate among citizens regarding the fairness of taxing individuals for not having children [7][12] Group 2 - Concerns are raised that if the trend of declining birth rates continues, Japan's population could drop to 50 million by 2100, predominantly consisting of elderly individuals. This demographic issue is echoed in other countries, such as China, where the elderly population is also increasing significantly [13]

日本政府最近宣布的一项新政策让人大跌眼镜，从2026年开始，所有加入公共医疗保险的日本公民，无论婚 育状况如何，都将被征收一项名为"儿童支援金"的费用。 这项政策因其"劫贫济富"的特性被愤怒的单身人士直接称为"单身税"。 按照官方公布的标准，年收入越高缴纳越多，到2028年，高收入者每年最高需缴纳19800日元（约合人民币 900元）。 表面上看，这笔钱不算多，但它背后折射出的社会矛盾却异常尖锐。 政府试图用经济手段解决少子化问题，而年轻人则认为这是对他们生活选择的变相惩罚。 这项政策最引人注目的地方在于它的梯度设计，2026年政策刚实施时，年收入200万日元（约合人民币9万 元）的上班族每月需缴纳200日元，年收入400万日元的缴纳400日元。 以此类推，年收入达到1000万日元的高收入人群每月需缴纳1000日元。 | | 4800円 | 6600円 | 7800円 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600万円 | 7200円 | 9600円 | 12000円 | | 800 FH | 9600円 | 12600円 | | | 1000万+ | 12000円 | 16200円 | ...