近段时间市场中对银行负债压力的话题讨论较多。不少投资者认为，在 5 月 20 日新一轮存款降息后，大量存款流向银行理财等资管产品，因此明显加大了银行 的负债压力。 我们认为，在讨论的初始应厘清负债压力的概念：首先，所谓的负债压力，既取 决于负债缺口的规模，也取决于缺口补充的难度。其次，对负债缺口的衡量有两 个不同的尺度，一个是相对于监管指标的，另一个是相对于银行自身诉求的。 2025 年 6 月 29 日 总量研究 由银行负债压力想到的 ——2025 年 6 月 29 日利率债观察 要点 1、由银行负债压力想到的 不难看出，银行以此方式所获得的存款规模时点数的提升并无法提高其支持实体 经济的质效，而且还会降低自身乃至于行业的盈利能力。我们认为，这是典型的 内卷式竞争。 规模情结所导致的内卷在资产端也有体现，其结果是形成了贷款利率的不合理下 行。譬如，今年一季度曾出现过利率 2.5%左右的消费贷产品。综合存、贷款两 端来看，规模情结压低了银行业的净息差和利润增速，影响了金融支持实体经济 的可持续性，亦制约了货币政策的空间。 我们注意到，近些年货币当局充分发挥利率自律机制作用，规范存贷款市场竞争 秩序，取得了很好 ...

特别申明： 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 为何银行有阶段性提高利率吸存的诉求？有些银行可能是由于今年5月降息后存款增速不及年初制定的目 标，有些银行可能是担心规模排名下滑，还有些银行可能是想借此机会提高自家的排名。总而言之，以上 皆是规模情结在作祟。 不难看出，银行以此方式所获得的存款规模时点数的提升并无法提高其支持实体经济的质效，而且还会降 低自身乃至于行业的盈利能力。我们认为，这是典型的内卷式竞争。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 由银行负债压力想到的 近段时间市场中对银行负债压力的话题讨论较多。不少投资者认为，在5月20日新一轮存款降息后，大量 存款流向银行理财等资管产品，因此明显加大了银行的负债压力。 我们认为，在讨论的初始应厘清负债压力的概念：首先，所谓的负债压力，既取决于负债缺口的规模， ...

聚烯烃：短期偏高，趋势仍有压力 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 聚丙烯供需 02 聚乙烯供需 03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 PP：趋势偏弱 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 ◆ 首先、当前中东情况趋向暂停，此前多头核心驱动消失。在供应端，目前检修量不足以改变供需格局， 新增产能大大抵消了供应端的努力。需要看到中国化债压力、欧美衰退压力等宏观因素配合国内产能扩 张的趋势，趋势压力仍在； ◆ 第二、站在中期角度看，供应端新增产能压力主要集中在上半年，虽然当下市场对贸易战好转的乐观因 素预期抢出口，但这并不改变总量供应过剩、下游低利润导致无力正反馈，因此高位仍然需要保持谨慎； ◆ 第三、从宏观角 ...

近日，在社交平台上有消费者表示，此前在泡泡玛特官方渠道购买的潮玩产品，未能如订单所显示的最 晚发货时间进行发货。 在泡泡玛特官方抽盒机小程序直播间中，亦有网友留言表示，希望直播间主播帮忙跟进延迟发货等情 况。直播间主播以直播间为售前部门为由，建议网友咨询售后客服解决。但网友表示，售后客服并未能 很好地解决问题。有消费者日前也向记者反馈，原本应该在这几天收货的泡泡玛特商品并未到货。 有用户直指泡泡玛特发货机制为"霸王条款"。该用户在6月23日发起投诉，6月11日于微信小程序点击发 货，约定的72小时发货变成7天左右，最终13天都还未发货，联系客服只答复尽快发货。用户表示若再 未在当天发货，将起诉品牌的不合理条约。该条投诉已在当天得到品牌回复，该用户最终表示涉诉问题 已解决。 出现延迟发货的情况，到底是与近期促销订单激增有关，还是与网友猜测的产能跟不上有关？记者就这 一问题向泡泡玛特求证，公司暂无回应。 至于订单已排到9月的热门预售产品，Labubu前方高能系列的产能是否能如约完成发货，泡泡玛特公司 也暂无回应。此前记者从知情人士处获悉，泡泡玛特的工厂主要在广东省东莞市，急剧增长的需求已让 泡泡玛特感受到了压力， ...

以下文章来源于财经天下WEEKLY ，作者财经天下 财经天下WEEKLY . 《财经天下》周刊官方账号，提供有品质的深度报道，讲述中国企业在时代浪潮中的精彩故事。 如果说小米SU7撞脸保时捷，那么小米YU7从面相上看有不少法拉利的影子。不少网友调侃：这是雷军继给 年轻人造出"保时捷"后，又造了一辆"法拉利"。之前小米SU7以21.59万元的价格向市场扔了一张"王炸"，如 今小米YU7又让市场沸腾了。 01 25.35万元起，小米YU7卖爆了 3分钟，大定突破20万台；1小时，大定突破28.9万台。6月26日晚，小米汽车首款SUV——YU7上市，以其 惊人的大定数据成为当晚的微博爆词。 20万台是什么概念？2024年全年，蔚来的销量约22.19万台，小鹏汽车全年交付量刚超过19万台，而去年"成 绩单" 破50万台的理想汽车，平均到每个月的销量也只有4万多台。而且从市场热度看，小米YU7仅用3分钟 就超过了小米SU7上市后24小时的大定订单数。 有销售称，试驾通道会在6月27日开启，从目前的咨询量看，不排除之后会采取"拼车"方式试驾。也就是 说，一辆YU7同一时间会邀请2～4个客户试驾。 "'法拉利'还是比'保时 ...

为何这么说？关键原因就是产能。 大家看看SU7的产能提升，北京一期工厂是给SU7用的，计划产能是每年15万台，一个月大约是1.2-1.5 万台左右。后来订单太多，不得不24小时连续开工，变成一个月产能2.5-3万台。 小米YU7最新锁单数据来了，按照小米官方说法，YU7汽车 2 分钟大定 19.6 万台，锁单 12.2 万台，1小 时大订28.9万台，而18小时锁单量超24万台。 这些数据还在持续不断的攀升，大家认为，24小时锁单铁定超过30万台，只不过后面没公布了，因为没 有意义了，24万台锁单，估计早就将2025年的产能抢光了。 我想，很多人都预料到了小米YU7的火爆，但没有预料到它会这么火爆，已经不能用常理来解释了，真 的是全球汽车史上的奇迹。 不过，别看小米YU7卖的这么多，事实上，在目前这个基础之上，它卖的越多，雷军的麻烦就越大。 24万台锁单，意味着最大产能开启后，都需要8个月，而前面2-3个月产能会少一些，意味着至少1年的 产能，就已经被抢光了。 接下来，小米愁的就是交付，那边欠了SU7一屁股车，这边欠了YU7又一屁股车。这不是大麻烦是什 么？什么时候交付，用户会不会造反？产能爬坡、工厂扩建、供 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing number of individuals unable to repay their mortgages, which is a growing concern amidst fluctuating housing prices [1][9]. Group 1: Housing Market Dynamics - The housing market is experiencing price fluctuations, with some areas seeing price corrections due to regulatory measures, which can create psychological pressure for existing mortgage holders [9][10]. - The traditional view of homeownership as a symbol of success is being challenged as many individuals face financial burdens due to mortgage repayments [3][7]. Group 2: Personal Stories and Impacts - Personal anecdotes illustrate the emotional and financial strain of mortgage debt, such as the case of Xiao Li, whose stable mortgage turned into a significant burden after a job loss [3][6]. - The narrative of Wang Ayi emphasizes the generational debt transfer, where parents feel obligated to support their children in home purchases, impacting their own financial stability [6][7]. Group 3: Coping Strategies - Individuals are exploring various strategies to cope with mortgage pressures, including reducing expenses, seeking additional income, or even opting to stop mortgage payments altogether [11]. - The case of Zhang demonstrates a shift towards prioritizing personal freedom and self-investment over maintaining homeownership under financial strain [11]. Group 4: Societal and Governmental Roles - The article calls for a balanced approach from both individuals and the government to address the challenges faced by mortgage holders, advocating for more supportive policies [10][15]. - It emphasizes the need for a more compassionate and humanized environment to help individuals navigate the complexities of mortgage debt and housing pressures [15].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time closing highs, confirming a technical bull market with a cumulative increase of over 20% since the low on April 8 [1][2] - For the week, the S&P 500 rose 3.44%, the Nasdaq increased by 4.25%, and the Dow Jones gained 3.82%, indicating strong market rebound momentum and improved risk appetite [2] Sector Performance - Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, the consumer discretionary sector led gains, while the energy sector lagged [3] - Nike's stock surged by 15.2%, significantly contributing to the index's performance after the company provided better-than-expected first-quarter revenue guidance and announced supply chain optimization plans [3] - Technology stocks performed strongly, with Google and Amazon rising over 2%, and Nvidia and Meta increasing by more than 1%, with Nvidia hitting a new high [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 2.3% year-over-year in May, with the core PCE index increasing by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3] - Consumer confidence significantly improved, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rising to 60.7 in June, the highest level in four months, reflecting better economic outlook and reduced concerns about personal finances [3] Federal Reserve Expectations - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path have adjusted, with a 76% probability of a rate cut in September and a reduced likelihood of a cut in July at 19% [4] Commodity Market - In the commodities market, gold prices fell by 1.6% to $3287.6 per ounce, while WTI crude oil rose by 0.43% to $65.52 per barrel, and Brent crude increased by 0.16% to $66.80 per barrel [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's annual stress test results indicate that major U.S. banks have sufficient capital buffers to withstand severe economic downturns, paving the way for potential increases in dividends and stock buyback plans [1][2] Group 1: Stress Test Results - The stress test involved 22 large banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs, which can absorb over $550 billion in potential losses while maintaining credit supply to consumers and businesses [1] - The results provide a basis for assessing the systemic health of banks and serve as a critical reference for market analysts and investors, particularly regarding capital returns [1] Group 2: Regulatory Context - The stress test is seen as a focal point in the ongoing debate between regulatory agencies and banking lobbyists, with calls for increased transparency and reduced burdens on banks [2] - The current regulatory environment is influenced by officials appointed during the Trump administration, who are advocating for relaxed regulations, including lowering capital requirements [2] Group 3: Future Implications - Analysts expect all banks to pass the stress tests smoothly, leading to potential approval of capital plans by the Federal Reserve, which may result in increased dividends or stock buybacks [2] - There are concerns from Democratic lawmakers and consumer advocacy groups regarding proposed reforms that could reduce the volatility of test results, emphasizing the importance of maintaining robust capital as a safeguard against financial crises [2]

22家美国大型银行通过了美联储的年度压力测试，表明它们能够承受严重的经济衰退，并为增加回购和 股东分红奠定了基础。测试结果显示，即使在假设的经济衰退情景下，这些银行也能承受超过5500亿美 元的损失，并保持普通股一级资本充足率高于4.5%的最低要求。(新浪财经) ...