Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in German government bond yields, highlighting the movements in 10-year, 2-year, and 30-year bonds during the week of July 4, with specific attention to the impact of the U.S. non-farm payroll report on these yields [1]. Summary by Category 10-Year Government Bonds - The yield on German 10-year government bonds decreased by 0.8 basis points to 2.607%, with a cumulative increase of 1.5 basis points for the week [1]. - The yield had previously dropped to 2.542% before rebounding to 2.675% on July 2 [1]. 2-Year Government Bonds - The yield on 2-year German bonds fell by 1.8 basis points to 1.816%, with an overall decline of 4.4 basis points for the week [1]. - The trading range for the 2-year bonds was between 1.875% and 1.799%, with a notable recovery following the U.S. non-farm payroll report on July 3 [1]. - The yield fluctuated below 1.860% from June 30 to July 3, but the rebound was short-lived, leading to further declines on July 4 [1]. 30-Year Government Bonds - The yield on 30-year German bonds increased by 0.9 basis points to 3.087%, with a total rise of 1.7 basis points for the week [1]. Yield Spread - The spread between 2-year and 10-year German bond yields increased by 1.174 basis points to +78.909 basis points, with a cumulative rise of 6.128 basis points for the week [1].

Core Points - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" was passed in the U.S. House of Representatives with a vote of 218 to 214, and is set to be signed by Trump on July 4 as a celebration of Independence Day [1] - The act is a significant tax and spending bill, extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, raising the debt ceiling, and increasing spending on border security, defense, and energy production [1][3] - Critics argue that the act primarily benefits wealthy individuals and corporations while low-income populations bear the brunt of the cuts to social welfare programs [1][5] Tax Cuts and Revenue Impact - The act is estimated to reduce U.S. tax revenue by approximately $4.5 trillion over the next decade, with many tax cuts from the 2017 act being made permanent [3][4] - Corporate tax rates will be permanently reduced from 35% to 21%, and additional tax incentives for business investments will be extended [3][4] - The act raises the state and local tax deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000, benefiting households earning between $200,000 and $500,000, particularly in high-tax states [4] Social Welfare and Healthcare Cuts - The act is projected to cut $1.5 trillion in spending over the next decade, disproportionately affecting low-income populations [5] - Medicaid funding is expected to be reduced by about $1 trillion, potentially leaving 12 million low-income individuals without healthcare coverage [7] - The tightening of eligibility for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) may lead to a $300 billion reduction in spending [8] Debt and Fiscal Concerns - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the act will increase the federal deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion over the next decade, raising annual deficit rates to around 7% [9] - The debt ceiling will be raised by $5 trillion, with projections indicating that by 2034, U.S. national debt could reach 124% of GDP, the highest in history [9][11] - Interest payments on federal debt are already surpassing military spending, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability [11] Defense and Energy Spending - The act includes an additional $150 billion for defense spending, with a focus on missile defense systems and military priorities [13] - Approximately $175 billion will be allocated for immigration and border enforcement, including $46.5 billion for border wall construction [14] - The act significantly reduces incentives for clean energy while increasing support for traditional energy sectors, reflecting a shift in U.S. energy policy [14][15]

Core Points - The recent passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" in the U.S. Congress reflects a significant shift towards austerity measures that disproportionately affect lower-income individuals and workers [4][10] - The act extends tax benefits for the wealthy while cutting food assistance and medical subsidies for the poor, indicating a regression to a more conservative societal structure reminiscent of the Cold War era [6][10][11] - The U.S. is facing a growing national debt, nearing $35 trillion, with interest payments exceeding $1 trillion annually, prompting the need for spending cuts [9] Summary by Sections Legislative Changes - The "Big Beautiful Act" passed with a narrow vote of 218 to 214, with no Democratic votes in favor and only two Republicans opposing [4] - Key provisions include the extension of tax benefits for the wealthy and cuts to food assistance and medical subsidies for the poor [4][10] Economic Context - Over the past decade, average wage growth in the U.S. was around 3% annually before the pandemic, but real purchasing power has stagnated despite nominal increases of over 5% in recent years [6] - The wealth of the top 10% of Americans increased by over 15% in the past year, driven by stock market and real estate gains, while lower-income households have seen their savings diminish [7] Social Implications - The cuts to welfare programs, including a 4% reduction in food assistance and over 1% in children's health insurance subsidies, suggest a return to a society where the working poor must work harder for less support [10][11] - The current economic environment is characterized by a strong dollar and high interest rates, which may lead to further cuts in education and housing subsidies if fiscal pressures continue [13] Consumer Sentiment - Despite rising stock markets, consumer confidence remains low, with many Americans expecting negative economic conditions in the near future [15] - The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" indicates a prioritization of corporate interests and fiscal strength over the welfare of ordinary workers, raising concerns about the long-term societal impact [15][17]

Group 1 - International silver prices maintained a critical level at $36.30, with a daily high of $36.93 and a low of $36.60, indicating market stability [1] - The U.S. employment report for June exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4%, suggesting a robust labor market [2] - The optimistic economic data from the U.S. supported a rise in the dollar, impacting silver prices positively [3] Group 2 - Silver prices closed at $36.85, marking a 0.80% increase, and are approaching a double bottom pattern, indicating potential upward movement [3] - A breakthrough above the June 26 high of $36.83 is necessary for silver to challenge the year-to-date high of $37.31 [3] - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $37.49 and $38.00, while a drop below $36.00 could lead to further declines [3]

| 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | 昨日收盘价 | 102.514 | 102.644 | 106.255 | 106.365 | 109.105 | 109.180 | 121.13 | 121 | | | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.512 | 102.642 | 106.250 | 106.345 | 109.130 | 109.210 | 121.18 | 121.04 | 涨跌 | 0.002 | 0.002 | ...

2025年记账式附息(十一期)国债第二次续发行已完成招标工作。本次国债计划续发行1310亿元，实际续 发行面值金额1310亿元。经招标确定的续发行价格为100.66元，折合年收益率为1.62%。本次国债续发 行部分从招标结束后至7月7日进行分销，从7月9日起与原发行部分3400亿元合并上市交易。(财政部) ...

金十数据7月4日讯，巴克莱分析师Moyeen Islam在一份报告中说，近期长期英国国债收益率的波动凸显 出英国国债市场的脆弱性。周三，30年期英国国债收益率攀升至5.452%的四周高点，因投资者担心英 国新任财政大臣的前景以及财政规则的变化。 长期英国国债收益率波动凸显出市场的脆弱性 ...

由于财政刺激需时才会对实体经济带来影响，预计明年美国经济增长应会改善。若资本支出的税务优惠 追溯至2025年1月生效，企业或会较消费者更快作出反应，以争取最大税务优惠。但企业能否及时行动 仍不明朗。尽管如此，增长改善料难以抵销税收减少对财政赤字的影响。 除非最终法案出现重大修改，根据美国国会预算办公室估计，该法案在未来十年将令赤字增加超过2万 亿美元。2024年赤字占美国国内生产总值的6.4%，是和平时期及非衰退期间的最高水平。鉴于缺乏处 理赤字的计划，预计未来二至三年美国政府赤字将维持在目前的高位。 普徕仕指出，今年美国经济放缓，新财政刺激方案可为其提供及时支持。消费支出和企业信心有望获得 急需的提振。虽然该法案将支持经济活动，但受关税影响，美国今年经济增长预期仍将低于趋势水平。 然而，普徕仕的基本预测是美国经济仍有望避开衰退。 美国众议院周四(3日)通过税收与支出法案(又称"大而美法案")，法案将送交给特朗普签署，预计能在美 国独立日(4日)前正式生效。普徕仕首席美国经济学家Blerina Uruci表示，"大而美法案"虽可支持增长， 但连同关税等其他因素，可能为通胀带来上行风险。加上近期缺乏处理赤字的计 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Musk and Trump centers around the "Big and Beautiful Act," which has passed a procedural vote and is close to becoming law, with Musk vehemently opposing it and threatening to form a new political party if it passes [1][3][5]. Group 1: Legislative Developments - The "Big and Beautiful Act" passed with a narrow margin of 51 votes in favor and 49 against, moving closer to becoming law [3]. - The act includes significant budget cuts, such as a $4 trillion tax reduction over the next decade, while also raising the estate and gift tax exemption limits [5][7]. - The act's passage is expected to exacerbate the already dire fiscal situation in the U.S., with potential debt growth exceeding initial estimates [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The act is projected to cut nearly $1 trillion from Medicaid, making it harder for low-income families to access healthcare [7]. - Food assistance program age limits have been raised, increasing food insecurity among low-income groups [7]. - The act plans to raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, adding to the current national debt of over $37 trillion, with annual interest payments already exceeding $1.3 trillion [8]. Group 3: Musk's Position and Actions - Musk has previously advocated for government spending cuts and has implemented measures that saved approximately $130 billion in federal spending during his tenure [11]. - His opposition to the "Big and Beautiful Act" stems from a belief that it will lead the country deeper into debt, contradicting his earlier efforts to streamline government expenditures [10][11]. - Musk's warnings about the U.S. nearing bankruptcy highlight his concerns regarding the fiscal direction of the country under current policies [10]. Group 4: Trump and Federal Reserve Dynamics - Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates, claiming that timely action could save the U.S. trillions in interest payments [13][15]. - The ongoing tension between Trump and the Federal Reserve reflects a broader struggle over economic policy, with Trump pushing for lower rates while Powell maintains an independent stance based on economic data [15][18]. - The situation illustrates a complex interplay between legislative actions and monetary policy, with potential implications for the U.S. economy moving forward [18].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年7月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230499 投资咨询证号：Z0000990 联系方式：0575-85229759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：银行间主要利率债收益率整体稳中稍降，超长期国债及10年国开债则表现略弱。国债期货窄幅震荡为主，30年期主力合约跌0.02%，5年及2年 期主力合约微升。资金面更显宽松，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率继续下行，幅度超4个bp，目前位于1.31%位置，七天质押式回购利率下行超3个bp。 跨季后资金有望延续偏松局面，但仍不足以推动市场打破当前低波动状态。 2、资金面：7月3日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了572亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量572亿元，中标量572亿元。Wind数 据显示，当日5093亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼4521亿元。 3、基差：TS ...