■王丽新 6月16日，国家统计局公布最新数据，2025年5月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比 下降，同比降幅继续收窄。 在笔者看来，尽管5月份房价出现短暂波动，但市场"止跌回稳"的核心趋势未发生改变。在政策环境逐 步改善的背景下，"稳楼市"还需继续努力。下一阶段，各地要积极主动适应房地产市场供求关系发生重 大变化的现实，稳中求进，持续夯实三大动力，支撑市场走出平稳曲线。 6月13日召开的国务院常务会议强调，要扎实有力推进"好房子"建设，纳入城市更新机制加强工作统 筹，在规划、土地、财政、金融等方面予以政策支持。 "好房子"以住宅品质为切入点，可提升城市品质，比如老旧小区改造、完整社区建设、市政设施修缮更 替以及公共配套补短板等；拉动新增投资和消费，比如推动产城融合、住宅销售、家装改造等多方面消 费。 第三，"盘存量""优增量"有序落实，打通梗阻。厘清不同区域房地产市场特征与问题，是"稳楼市"、化 解风险的关键点。这意味着要对全国房地产已供土地和在建项目进行摸底，更精准地盘活存量，保证交 付，同时优化增量供应，更为顺畅地加快风险出清。此前，处置存量商品房、盘活存量用地和商办用房 等工作已有序推 ...

文章指出，"18条"政策措施在"鼓励企业优化开发"方面，消除开发建设障碍，完善规划条件和相关配套 设施要求，合理调整开竣工日期，依法免除因自然灾害、疫情导致的违约责任；在"促进市场流通转 让"方面，充分发挥土地二级市场作用，推进房地产用地"带押过户"，配合司法及破产处置，优化分割 开发程序，支持合作开发；在"规范政府收购收回"方面，强调了应依法收回的情形，协商收回的可采取 等价置换等方式，收回收购土地用于保障性住房的，可通过地方政府专项债券等资金予以支持，但要量 力而行，坚决避免新增地方政府隐性债务。"18条"是系统施策的"政策工具箱"，限定时限、限定范围、 封闭运行，在风险可控的前提下，为企业缓解资金困难和压降债务提供"套餐式"政策支持。 文章表示，"18条"出台一年来，各地既坚持原则又积极创新，部分省市结合本地实际陆续出台相关规定 或实施细则，细化流程、规范操作，推进各项措施落地见效，形成了一批鲜活生动的典型案例，起到了 良好的示范效应。 文章称，当前，我国城镇化发展实现从重数量的外延式扩张向重品质的内涵式发展转变，房地产市场供 求关系发生重大变化，进入加快构建房地产发展新模式的重要时期。构建房地产的新模 ...

以下文章来源于真叫卢俊 ，作者真叫卢俊团队 真叫卢俊 . 认认真真聊地产，实实在在谈买房。 来源丨 真叫卢梭 （ID： zhenjiaolujun0426 ） 作者丨 乔不丝 图源丨Midjourney 你知道吗，现在的上海，正在被400多家购物中心包围。 从平均值来看， 上海约每8万人就拥有一家大型购物中心，而东京平均每20万人以上才有一家大型购 物中心。 上海人均商业面积， 仅次于迪拜，是东京的3倍。 即便已繁华到了天花板的程度，上海的商业依旧持续爆发。 今年全年上海预计新开商业约60个，总规模超过三百万平，其中闵行新开商业体量居全市首位，预计 新开12家商业，面积超过一百万平... 这是上海商业建立起来的庞大版图。 而以下是另外一组关于消费的数字。 | 今年第一季度，上海全市社会消费品零售总额增速为负。 | | --- | | | 社会消费品零售总额 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025年3月 | | | | | 指标 | 3月 | 比去年同月 | 1-3月 | 比去年同期 | | | (亿元) | 增长(%) | (亿元) | 增长 (%) ...

Group 1 - The company plans to engage in a financing lease sale-and-leaseback transaction with State Grid International Financial Leasing Co., Ltd., with a financing amount not exceeding 500 million RMB [1][2] - The transaction does not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring as defined by the regulations [1][2] - The financing amount falls within the board's approval authority and does not require submission to the shareholders' meeting for approval [1][2] Group 2 - The board of directors approved the financing lease sale-and-leaseback proposal during the 17th meeting of the 11th session on June 17, 2025, which does not require shareholder approval [2] - The transaction involves the sale and leaseback of certain production equipment and facilities from the Jiamusi Thermal Power Plant, with clear ownership and no significant disputes or legal issues [2] - The financing lease will allow the company to activate existing assets, broaden financing channels, and meet funding needs, promoting sustainable and healthy development without affecting the normal use of the leased assets [2]

Group 1 - Shanghai has over 400 shopping centers, with an average of one large shopping center for every 80,000 people, compared to Tokyo's one for every 200,000 people [1] - Shanghai's per capita commercial area is second only to Dubai and is three times that of Tokyo [2] - Despite reaching a high level of commercial development, Shanghai's commercial sector continues to expand [3] Group 2 - In 2023, approximately 60 new commercial projects are expected to open in Shanghai, totaling over 3 million square meters, with Minhang leading with 12 new openings exceeding 1 million square meters [4] - The retail sales growth rate in Shanghai for the first quarter of this year was negative, indicating a disconnect between the increase in shopping centers and consumer spending [5][8] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in March were 128 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year, with a total of 4.06 billion yuan for the first quarter, also down 1.1% [7] Group 3 - Shanghai is entering a phase of oversupply in commercial space, leading to many shopping centers being abandoned or underperforming [8][9] - Numerous shopping malls in prime locations have closed, including well-known brands like Pacific Department Store and Isetan [10][11] - The opening of new malls has not translated into increased consumer traffic, resulting in many becoming deserted [12][13] Group 4 - The Aegean Shopping Center in Minhang, which opened in 2017, has seen a significant decline in outdoor retail space, with a vacancy rate of nearly 90% [22][29] - The area around Longbai, once bustling with foreign investment, has also seen a decline in activity, with many businesses closing [35][36] - Newer commercial developments, such as The Roof, are struggling to maintain consumer interest despite their architectural appeal [50][51] Group 5 - The once-thriving Qipu Road wholesale market has seen rental prices plummet from 70,000 yuan to 500 yuan per month, indicating a significant decline in demand [61][62] - Some shopping centers are now offering rent-free options, only requiring payment of property fees, highlighting the drastic changes in the market [90][93] - Successful transformations of some markets into high-end shopping areas contrast sharply with those that have failed to adapt [94][96] Group 6 - Wanda Group has sold off a significant number of its commercial assets, including over 30 Wanda Plazas in the past two years, due to high debt levels [100][102] - The company has shifted to a light-asset model, retaining operational rights while selling properties to insurance companies [109] - Other real estate companies, including Vanke and Shimao, are also divesting commercial assets to improve liquidity [115][118] Group 7 - The commercial real estate sector is transitioning from expansion to efficiency, with a focus on optimizing existing assets rather than acquiring new ones [129][130] - The market is witnessing a "new metabolism," where successful businesses adapt and thrive while others are left behind [131][134] - The competition in the commercial sector has entered a new phase, emphasizing the importance of consumer engagement and operational sustainability [136][138]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, the total social financing increased by 22,894 billion yuan, which is 2,271 billion yuan more than the same period last year[2] - The stock growth rate of social financing recorded 8.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous value[2] - New RMB loans in May amounted to 6,200 billion yuan, which was lower than expected, indicating a need for improved effective financing demand[2] Group 2: Government Financing and Loan Trends - Government bonds increased by 14,633 billion yuan in May, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion yuan, supporting social financing expansion[9] - Corporate loans increased by 5,300 billion yuan, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 2,100 billion yuan, influenced by global trade tensions[10] - Resident loans increased by 540 billion yuan, but this also represented a year-on-year decrease of 217 billion yuan, showing weak leverage willingness post-interest rate cuts[10] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Policy Implications - M2 growth rate in May recorded 7.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, likely due to slowed credit expansion[14] - M1 growth rate improved by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3%, reflecting the impact of recent financial support policies on market confidence[14] - Future strategies should focus on enhancing fiscal efforts and coordinating monetary policy to stimulate financing willingness in the real economy[19] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential underperformance of policy implementation, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and unexpected developments in US-China trade tensions[21]

关注财政投放节奏 证券研究报告|银行 强于大市(维持) [Table_ReportType] ——银行行业月报[Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 06 月 16 日 [事件Table_Summary] ： 中国人民银行发布 2025 年 5 月金融统计数据报告、5 月社融存 量以及增量统计数据报告。 投资要点： 5 月社融存量增速 8.7%，增速持平于 4 月：5 月，社融新增 2.29 万亿元，同比多增 0.2 万亿元。5 月社融实现同比多增，主要受 政策性因素引导即政府债持续加速发行支撑，整体看仍体现了 稳增长的特征。5 月政府债净融资规模 1.46 万亿元,同比多增 0.2 万亿元。5 月末，社融存量规模 426 万亿元，同比增速 8.7%， 增速环比持平于 4 月。其中，2025 年 1-5 月，政府债净融资额 达到 6.31 万亿元，同比多增 3.82 万亿元。 需求端待进一步打开：企业端，5 月新增 5300 亿元，同比少增， 其中，短期贷款增加 1100 亿元，同比多增；中长期贷款增加 3300 亿元，同比少增；票据融资增加 746 亿元，同比少增。综合考 虑企业端的融资情况，5 ...

2025.06. 16 13日，国务院常务会议审议通过《关于进一步完善信用修复制度的实施方案》。这是继6月1日起实 施新修订的《保障中小企业款项支付条例》后，决策层对盘活存量做出的新努力。 国家统计局数据显示，2024年末，规模以上工业企业的应收账款总额达26.06万亿元，同比增长 8.6%。这意味着随着各级政府存量资产结构的重置和盘活，若机关事业单位、国企等能践行《保障 中小企业款项支付条例》，将极大地改善企业和居民部门的流动性，为实体经济注入更多活力，让 M1活起来。 此外，关键是适度清除一些有碍企业并购重组甚至破产出清的政策和制度，强化产业链供应链治理， 减轻产业链供应链上主导企业对上下游信用的占用压力，积极引导金融机构强化供应链金融服务能力 和效率，降低供应链金融的融资成本。 前五个月未贴现银行承兑汇票增加1343亿元，同比多增1662亿元，其中5月单月为-1163亿元，这反 映银行在供应链金融方面存在较大发展空间，更反映很多产业链供应链上的主导企业对供应商的资金 本文字数：1560，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 一财评论员 存量盘活正呈雷霆之势。 13日央行公布的最新金融数据显示，前五个月社会融资规 ...

唯有在政府、企业和居民三部门中都能正视风险，正本清源地防风险，经济体系才能疏通各种卡点堵 点，风险才能得到规制，信用才能获得解放。 存量盘活正呈雷霆之势。 13日央行公布的最新金融数据显示，前五个月社会融资规模增量累计为18.63万亿元，同比多增3.83万亿 元；5月社融增量为2.29万亿元，同比多增2247亿元；M2同比增长7.9%，M1同比增长2.3%，M2-M1剪 刀差5.6个百分点，较4月缩小0.9个百分点。 今年以来对社融贡献最大的是政府债券。前五个月政府债券净融资6.31万亿元，同比多增3.81万亿元， 几乎与前五个月社融3.83万亿元的同比多增规模相当。其中，各级政府发行的置换债券贡献最大，预计 今年已发行的置换债券对应置换的贷款约2.3万亿元。 各级政府资产负债结构重整的成效日益凸显，有助于强化政府对经济增长的可控性，提高经济定点突破 能力，也增强了各级政府扩信用的能力，为激活和助推经济提供可能。 当然，真正激活经济的新库存周期，需要决策层将重心放在盘活企业和居民的资产负债结构，真正让 M1有效活跃起来，让实体经济流动起来。 13日，国务院常务会议审议通过《关于进一步完善信用修复制度的实施方案 ...

宏 观 研 究 金融数据 2025 年 06 月 15 日 M1 增速缘何回升？ —— 5 月金融数据点评 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 贾东旭 A0230522100003 jiadx@swsresearch.com 联系人 贾东旭 (8621)23297818× jiadx@swsresearch.com 事件：6 月 13 日，央行公布 2025 年 5 月中国金融数据，信贷余额同比下行 0.1 个百分点 至 7.1%，社融存量同比持平于至 8.7%，M2 同比下行 0.1 个百分点至 7.9%。 ⚫ 核心观点：随后续政策性金融工具推出，信贷表现或趋于稳定。 5 月金融数据中最突出的变化是 M1 增速回暖，主要原因或有两点：其一，去年 "资金 防空转" 政策下的低基数效应；其二，房地产销售边际回暖带动资金注入企业端。5 月 M1 同比回升 0.8 个百分点，一方面源于去年"资金防空转"治理，使企业活期存款基数 快速下降；另一方面，5 月商品房成交同比降幅收窄，部分资金转化为企业活期存款。 新增社会融资规模同比多增幅度收窄，主要是由于政府债 ...