证券研究报告 陆家嘴论坛：货币政策对内搞活市场， 对外加快开放 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 19 日│中国内地 动态点评 研究员 常慧丽，PhD SAC No. S0570520110002 SFC No. BJC906 changhuili@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 研究员 易峘 SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 evayi@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 6 月 18 日（周三），2025 年陆家嘴论坛在上海开幕。开幕式上，央行行长 潘功胜宣布 8 项金融开放措施，聚焦金融基础设施、数字金融、跨境贸易和 监管创新，显示央行搞活国内金融市场、加大对外开放的政策取向。 在政策立场方面，货币政策对内或以结构性政策为主，进一步降准降息空 间可能有限。潘行长在主题演讲中对货币政策的阐述不多，提及央行坚持支 持性货币政策立场，并表示将继续做好货币政策框架转型的评估和完善。如 我们在中期策略报告《"再平衡"中孕育新机遇》（2025/6/3）中分析，银行 净息差偏低可能制约央行进一步降息的幅度，预计下半年小幅降准 50 个基 ...

Group 1: Core Policies Announced - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced eight policy measures to be implemented in Shanghai, focusing on enhancing financial infrastructure and services [2][3] - Establishment of an interbank market trading report database to analyze transaction data across various financial sub-markets [2] - Creation of a digital RMB international operation center to promote the internationalization of digital currency [2] Group 2: Support for Financial Center Development - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced a joint action plan with the Shanghai government to support the construction of an international financial center [4] - Encouragement for innovation in technology finance and cross-border finance, including the establishment of financial asset investment companies in Shanghai [4] - Recent approvals for insurance asset management companies in Shanghai, indicating ongoing support for financial openness [4] Group 3: Innovation in Capital Markets - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced the "1+6" policy measures to enhance the STAR Market, including the establishment of a growth tier for technology companies [6][7] - Introduction of six reform measures aimed at improving the listing process and support for high-quality technology enterprises [6][7] - Plans to establish a specialized technology company in Shanghai to enhance asset management services and investment capabilities [7]

证券研究报告 | 2025 年 06 月 19 日 $$\overline{{{\prod_{i\in\mathbb{N}}}}}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}\frac{\bigtriangleup}{\bigtriangleup}$$ 制作：产品中心 重点推荐 《固收|利率专题——政策性金融工具的历史与当下》 1、历史上的政策性金融工具。此前推出政策性金融工具是在 2022 年， 彼时通过发行开发性金融债券筹资补充重大项目资本金，作为逆周期调节 手段应对经济下行压力。再往前追溯，2015-2017 年，国开行、农发行还 曾定向发行专项建设债券，用于支持国家重大项目建设，二者在形式上有 所类似，均由政策性银行募集资金并投放至特定领域，形成支持。上述两 项工具均是在逆周期调节，稳住经济大盘、增强地方投资能力的背景下推 出的，具有撬动实体信贷、增强财政可持续性、运作更为市场化、成本低、 投放快等特点，但在支持力度、投资领域、运作模式等方面又略有差异。 2、新型政策性金融工具或有哪些关注？与前两轮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced eight significant financial opening measures, including the expansion of the carbon reduction support tool, which aims to enhance green finance and support the country's dual carbon goals [1][3]. Group 1: Carbon Reduction Support Tool - The carbon reduction support tool was established in 2021 and targets 21 national financial institutions, focusing on clean energy, energy conservation, and carbon reduction technologies [1]. - The implementation period of the carbon reduction support tool has been extended to the end of 2027, as per the guidelines issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council [1]. Group 2: Challenges Faced - There are multiple challenges in the implementation of the carbon reduction support tool, including a lack of unified standards for green project recognition, which complicates verification and measurement of carbon reduction [2]. - The tool's coverage is limited, failing to support key areas needed for achieving carbon peak goals, and financial institutions are cautious in their operations, leading to limited scale [2]. - There is a need for improved risk compensation and incentive mechanisms, as some financial institutions show low enthusiasm for participation [2]. - Regional disparities exist, with the supply capacity of green projects in central and western regions being lower than that in eastern regions [2]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The expansion of the carbon reduction support tool signifies a deepening reform phase for green structural tools, potentially leading to innovations in supported areas, financial products, and accompanying policy mechanisms [3]. - Shanghai's role as a testing ground for these policies reflects a combination of policy testability and institutional leadership, with plans to explore diverse green financial tool designs [3]. - The global landscape of green finance is entering a phase of both competition and cooperation, and through structural monetary policy, China can enhance its climate financial governance capabilities [3].

郭嘉昆18日表示，当前台海和平稳定的最大破坏因素就是"台独"分裂活动和外部势力干涉。G7如果真 的关心台海和平，那就要恪守一个中国原则，明确反对"台独"，支持中国统一。当前东海、南海局势总 体保持稳定，G7应尊重地区国家通过对话协商解决问题、维护和平稳定的共同努力，停止借涉海问题 挑动地区国家关系，加剧地区紧张局势。郭嘉昆还称，所谓中国"市场扭曲""产能过剩"完全是伪命题， G7以此为借口行贸易保护主义之实，实质是遏制打压中国产业发展，是将经贸问题政治化、工具化。 外交学院教授李海东18日接受《环球时报》记者采访时表示，卡尼的总结延续了西方一贯的对华负面叙 事和对抗思维，缺乏新意，也缺乏建设性。这份总结中提到亚太安全、台海、东海、南海等议题，虽然 表面上是"关切稳定"，但实际上是充满偏见地对中方进行指责。这些措辞不仅毫无缓和摩擦的意图，反 而是在刻意制造危机、混淆视听，把自身在地区制造动荡的责任甩锅给中方，是一种典型的"贼喊捉 贼"做派。 【环球时报报道 记者 李萌 陈青青】当地时间6月17日，加拿大总理卡尼发表七国集团（G7）峰会主席 国总结，再次操弄涉华议题，在台湾、南海、东海等问题上说三道四，污蔑抹黑所 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced eight policy measures to be implemented in Shanghai to support economic recovery and financial market stability [1][2] - Establishment of an interbank market trading report database to analyze trading data across various financial sub-markets [1] - Creation of a digital RMB international operation center to promote the internationalization of digital currency [1] Group 2 - Development of a personal credit reporting agency to provide diversified credit products for financial institutions [1] - Launch of offshore trade finance service reform pilot in the Lingang New Area to support offshore trade development [1] - Introduction of offshore bonds to broaden financing channels for enterprises involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [2] Group 3 - Optimization of free trade account functions to enhance efficient capital flow between quality enterprises and foreign funds [2] - Innovation in structural monetary policy tools, including pilot projects for blockchain letters of credit refinancing and cross-border trade refinancing [2] - Collaboration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission to promote RMB foreign exchange futures trading [2] Group 4 - Discussion on global financial governance, emphasizing the need for improved international monetary systems and cross-border payment frameworks [3] - Advocacy for stronger economic supervision by international financial organizations to assess global risks and support economic globalization [3] - Commitment to reform and multilateralism to contribute to a fair and resilient global financial governance system [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced eight policy measures to enhance Shanghai's status as an international financial center, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and offshore trade financial service reforms [1][2]. - The establishment of the digital RMB international operation center aims to improve the RMB's position in the international monetary system, facilitate cross-border trade, and lower traditional payment costs [2][3]. - The offshore trade financial service reform pilot in Shanghai's Lingang New Area reflects China's emphasis on international trade and offshore finance, aiming to broaden financing channels for enterprises involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [3][4]. Group 2 - The introduction of structural monetary policy tool innovations in Shanghai includes trials for blockchain credit refinancing and cross-border trade refinancing, which are expected to enhance financing support for foreign trade enterprises [4][5]. - The collaboration between the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to promote RMB foreign exchange futures trading is anticipated to create favorable conditions for managing exchange rate risks for financial institutions and enterprises [5][6]. - The development of a diversified foreign exchange market product series is expected to attract more international investors, enhancing market liquidity and activity, while also boosting confidence in holding RMB assets among foreign investors [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve will consider enhancing communication tools, such as the dot plot [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is exploring improvements in its communication strategies to better convey monetary policy intentions [1]

智通财经6月19日电，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储将考虑加强沟通工具的改进，例如点阵图。 鲍威尔：美联储将考虑加强沟通工具的改进 ...

点击按钮▲立即报名 央行宣布8项重磅金融开放举措 6月18日，2025陆家嘴论坛开幕。本届论坛的主题为"全球经济变局中的金融开放合作与高质量发展"，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在致开幕词并主 题演讲时宣布了8项重磅金融政策。 具体包括，设立银行间市场交易报告库，设立数字人民币国际运营中心，设立个人征信机构，在上海临港新片区开展离岸贸易金融服务综合改革 试点，发展自贸离岸债，优化升级自由贸易账户功能，在上海"先行先试"结构性货币政策工具创新，会同证监会研究推进人民币外汇期货交易。 （央视新闻） ｜点评｜ 央行的8项举措，主要涵盖了金融监管、数字金融、跨境金融等方面，积极推动开放的信号明显，政策的创新性和针对性也有所加强。 当前外贸形势较为复杂，央行不断拓宽人民币跨境贸易的融资渠道，用再贴现等工具支持进出口企业，能够将资金更精准地输送到企业手中。 同时，设立数字人民币国际运营中心，拓展跨境支付场景，也能进一步推动人民币国际化进程，助力上海的国际金融中心建设。 6月18日，A股三大指数小幅收涨，军工板块涨幅居前。截至收盘，航空航天ETF（159227）涨幅1.17%，在全市场军工类ETF中涨幅居前。持 仓股长城军工涨停， ...