国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕4月28日在国新办举行的新闻发布会上介绍，稳就业稳经济推动高质量发 展的若干举措包括五方面内容，其中在营造稳定发展的良好环境方面，主要包括持续稳定和活跃资本市 场、持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势、加大对实体经济的金融支持等举措。(智通财经) ...

Group 1 - The recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to "continuously stabilize and activate the capital market," reflecting a more proactive policy stance compared to previous statements focused solely on stability [1][2] - The capital market is seen as a strategic component in the overall economy, with its stability crucial for improving market expectations, boosting investor confidence, and promoting consumption and investment, especially during economic restructuring [1][2] - Experts suggest that an active capital market can lower financing costs and enhance capital allocation efficiency, thereby better serving the real economy [3][4] Group 2 - Various government departments and market participants have taken measures to maintain market stability in response to global financial market impacts, demonstrating the adequacy of policy tools and the ongoing optimization of market stabilization mechanisms [2] - The meeting indicated a commitment to further reforms aimed at facilitating the entry of long-term funds into the market, which is expected to enhance market vitality and attract more investment [3][4] - Recommendations include optimizing listing and financing systems for quality tech companies, enhancing strategic reserves for market stability, and encouraging mergers and acquisitions to improve the quality of listed companies [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to consolidate the stability of the real estate market, indicating a shift towards a more stable outlook for the sector [5][6] - The policies implemented since late 2024 have shown effectiveness in stabilizing the real estate market, with signs of recovery becoming evident [6][7] - There is still room for further recovery in the fundamentals of the real estate market, and expectations for continued easing policies are warranted [7][8] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The real estate market has shown a trend of narrowing declines in sales, with a notable increase in the number of cities experiencing rising housing prices [7] - In March 2025, the number of cities with rising residential sales prices increased, with first-tier cities showing a slight increase in prices [7] Policy Impact - The Central Political Bureau's recent statements reflect a commitment to ongoing support for the real estate market, including urban renewal and high-quality housing supply [5][10] - The shift in language from "promoting recovery" to "consolidating stability" indicates a more confident approach to managing the real estate sector [6] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include companies with strong credit profiles and those that can effectively meet the needs of improvement-oriented customers, such as Greentown China and China Overseas Development [8] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, like China Resources Land and Longfor Group, are also highlighted [8] - The growing scale and penetration of the second-hand housing market present significant opportunities, with firms like Beike-W and I Love My Home being noted for their potential [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The new housing transaction area has increased month-on-month, continuously consolidating the stability of the real estate market. In the 17th week of 2025, the new housing transaction area in 68 cities increased by 14% month-on-month but decreased by 23% year-on-year. The total transaction area from the beginning of the year to date is 39.57 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4% [4][18][55] - The central government emphasizes the need to prevent and resolve risks in key areas of the real estate sector, implement urban renewal actions, and accelerate the construction of a new development model for real estate [4][5][55] Summary by Sections Sales Sector - In the 17th week of 2025, the new housing transaction area in 68 major cities was 2.12 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23% and a month-on-month increase of 14%. Cumulatively, the transaction area from the beginning of the year to date is 39.57 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 4% [6][18] - The transaction area of second-hand houses in 20 cities was 2.33 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6% and a cumulative transaction area of 33.55 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18% [33] Investment Sector - In the 17th week of 2025, the total planned land area launched in 100 major cities was 19.15 million square meters, with a transaction area of 13.14 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 31%. The average transaction premium rate was 4.3% [39] - Specific cities like Nanjing and Hangzhou saw significant land transactions, with Nanjing selling 8 residential plots for a total of 8.457 billion yuan [39] Financing Sector - In the 17th week of 2025, the issuance of credit bonds was 11.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29% but a month-on-month increase of 21%. The cumulative issuance of credit bonds was 133.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24% [45][55] Market Performance - The real estate index fell by 1.31% in the week of April 21-25, 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 0.38% [50]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The new housing transaction area has increased month-on-month, continuously consolidating the stability of the real estate market. In the 17th week of 2025, the new housing transaction area in 68 cities increased by 14% month-on-month but decreased by 23% year-on-year. The total transaction area from the beginning of the year to date is 39.57 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4% [4][18] - The central government emphasizes the need to prevent and resolve risks in key areas of the real estate sector, implement urban renewal actions, and accelerate the construction of a new development model for real estate [4][5] - The financing side shows a month-on-month increase in domestic credit bond issuance, with a total issuance of 11.65 billion yuan in the 17th week, a year-on-year decrease of 29% but a month-on-month increase of 21% [45] Summary by Sections 1. Market Stability and Policy Support - The central government and local governments are implementing policies to support the real estate market, including optimizing housing provident fund policies in Hangzhou to support employees in purchasing affordable housing [4][5][14] 2. Sales Performance - The new housing transaction area in 68 major cities decreased by 23% year-on-year but increased by 14% month-on-month. The second-hand housing transaction area in 20 cities increased by 6% year-on-year but decreased by 7% month-on-month [6][33] 3. Investment Trends - The total land transaction area in 100 major cities decreased by 31% year-on-year, with a transaction premium rate of 4.3%. The land transaction area in first-tier cities decreased by 74% year-on-year [39][40] 4. Financing Conditions - The issuance of domestic credit bonds has shown a month-on-month increase, with a total issuance of 116.5 billion yuan in the 17th week, despite a year-on-year decrease of 29% [45][47] 5. Weekly Market Review - The real estate index fell by 1.31%, underperforming the broader market, which saw the CSI 300 index rise by 0.38% [50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [13]. Core Insights - Increasing the supply of high-quality housing is expected to positively impact consumer demand and stabilize land finance. Housing serves as both an investment and a consumer good, with high-quality housing representing a new consumption category that can alleviate pressures from oversupply and income expectations [2][10]. - The policy goal of stabilizing the market is becoming more proactive, with improved market expectations. The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, highlighting structural opportunities in core areas and quality properties [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality housing supply in opening up new market space amid weak overall supply-demand dynamics, which is crucial for boosting consumer demand and stabilizing land finance [10]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 1.13% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.51%, ranking 30 out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 3.74%, with a slight outperformance of 0.02% relative to the CSI 300 [7][16]. - The performance of the development sector was primarily negative, while property management and rental sectors saw some gains [7]. Policy Developments - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need to increase the supply of high-quality housing and optimize existing property acquisition policies. Local policies, such as Xiamen's new housing voucher initiative, aim to enhance flexibility and efficiency in housing choices [8][18]. - The report notes that the focus on urban renewal and the construction of a new real estate development model is crucial for maintaining market stability [10][18]. Sales Data - In sample cities, new home sales showed a year-on-year decline of 6.8%, while second-hand home sales increased by 20.1%. Year-to-date, new home sales are up 1.0%, and second-hand sales are up 29.3% [9][19]. - The report indicates that the sales performance of new homes is under pressure, while second-hand homes are performing relatively well [9][19].

2025 年 04 月 27 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 落实"先手"政策，充实"后手"储备 ——2025 年 4 月政治局会议解读 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 华宝证券 1/9 策略周报 相关研究报告 束？ —策略周报》2025-04-06 2、《A 股情绪有所降温，等待新催化 — 策略周报》2025-03-23 3、《风格切换了？ —策略周报》2025- 03-16 4、《"两会行情"来临，如何应对？— 策略周报》2025-03-02 5、《春季躁动已至，科技领衔 —策略周 报》2025-02-09 投资要点 中共中央政治局 4 月 25 日召开会议。通过对比发现，此次政治局会议与以 往相比更加侧重于"积极应对关税影响"。总体有七大重点：1）正视外部关税 冲击，做好积极应对；2）二季度尽快落实已出台"先手"政策，增加"后 ...

今天早上，中信证券发布研报称，2023年10月以来，中央汇金通过增持ETF有效稳定资本市场预期、提振投资者信 心。根据公募基金2023年第四季度至2025年第一季度披露的持有人数据，汇金持有的ETF份额未曾出现环比净减少 的情况，诸如"汇金通常在市场阶段性上涨后卖出"等传言与实际情况完全不符。 最近两个交易日，市场走势较弱。中信证券认为，2025年4月以来，汇金持有的ETF获明显的资金净流入，且结构上 更加均衡。A股也是中国应对贸易战中提振信心的关键环节，应充分相信国家维护资本市场稳定的决心。 "国家队"未减持ETF 中信证券直言，"国家队"未曾减持ETF。 2025年4月以来，汇金积极增持ETF有效稳定资本市场预期、提振投资者信心。但同时市场有传言称汇金通常在市场 阶段性上涨后卖出（如2024年第四季度）、近期的增持行为将对未来行情构成减持压力，基于事实数据，此类揣测 与实际情况完全不符。由于季报并不披露基金前10大持有人的信息，中信统计了2023年第四季度至2025年第一季度 公募基金季报披露的"单一投资者持有份额比例达到或超过20%"的申赎情况（中央汇金2023年10月公告买入ETF， 2023年年报开 ...

文 ｜ 裘翔 2 0 2 3年1 0月以来，中央汇金通过增持ETF有效稳定资本市场预期、提振投资者信心。根据公募基金2 3Q4 - 2 5Q1季度披露的持有 人数据，汇金持有的ETF份额未曾出现环比净减少的情况，诸如"汇金通常在市场阶段性上涨后卖出"等传言与实际情况完全不 符。2 0 2 5年4月以来，汇金持有的ETF获明显的资金净流入，且结构上更加均衡。我们认为，A股也是中国贸易战中提振信心的 关键环节，应充分相信国家维护资本市场稳定的决心。同时，本文汇总了对这一揽子ETF资金流的跟踪测算方式，供投资者参 考。 ▍ 汇金持有的ETF份额未曾出现净减少的情况。 2 0 2 5年4月以来，汇金积极增持ETF有效稳定资本市场预期、提振投资者信心。但同时市场有传言称汇金通常在市场阶段性上 涨后卖出（如2 4Q4）、近期的增持行为将对未来行情构成减持压力，基于事实数据，此类揣测与实际情况完全不符。由于季 报并不披露基金前1 0大持有人的信息，我们统计了2 3Q4 - 2 5Q1公募基金季报披露的"单一投资者持有份额比例达到或超过 2 0%"的申赎情况（中央汇金2 0 2 3年1 0月公告买入ETF，2 0 2 3年年 ...

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