Core Insights - The article indicates that U.S. housing prices are expected to continue rising, with a projected average annual increase of 3.5% in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index until 2027 [1] - Nearly all surveyed analysts believe that Trump's tariff policies will hinder housing construction, reflecting a negative outlook on market affordability and liquidity [1] - Long-term bond yields have surged, limiting the downward movement of mortgage rates, which will continue to pressure affordability in the housing market [1] Survey Findings - A survey conducted by Reuters from May 19 to June 3 involved 27 real estate analysts, who expressed a more pessimistic view compared to three months prior [1] - The analysts had previously predicted improvements in market affordability and liquidity, but recent tax and spending legislation is expected to increase U.S. debt, dampening their optimism [1] - Approximately 90% of respondents indicated that U.S. tariffs would lead to a reduction in affordable housing construction [1]

Core Insights - The continuous rise in Australian housing prices has significantly increased the difficulty for young people to purchase homes [1][3] - The analysis by PropTrack reveals that housing costs have outpaced wage growth, creating substantial barriers for first-time buyers [3] Queensland - The difficulty of purchasing a first home in Queensland is now five times greater than in 1980 [1] - In Brisbane, the average house price in 1980 was AUD 32,750, which has increased by 420% when adjusted for inflation, equating to AUD 174,600 today [3] Victoria - In the 1980s, a house in Toorak cost AUD 160,500, equivalent to AUD 824,000 today, while current property values in the area have reached AUD 4.8 million, nearly six times the original price [3] - The median house price in Greater Melbourne is slightly above AUD 900,000, with properties in outer suburbs like Ferntree Gully now exceeding AUD 870,000 [3] South Australia - In Adelaide, the median house price has surged to AUD 832,500, which is 8.49 times the 1990 median price of AUD 98,000, adjusted for inflation [3] Northern Territory - In Darwin, buyers are currently paying 31% less than in 2010, with apartment prices dropping by 54% [4] - Stuart Park is the only area experiencing price increases, with the median house price rising from AUD 786,700 to AUD 891,000 [4] New South Wales - In Sydney, current housing prices are four times higher than in 1980, with an average house price of AUD 147 million projected for 2025 [6] - The average house price in 2010 was AUD 600,000, which, when adjusted for inflation, is approximately AUD 874,300, indicating that even past buyers paid significantly less than current prices [6]

Core Insights - The Australian Home Value Index increased by 0.5% month-on-month in May 2025, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1] - Year-on-year, the index grew by 3.3%, the lowest level since August 2023 [1] - All capital cities in Australia experienced price increases in May, with the smallest rise being 0.4% [1] Market Dynamics - The growth in housing prices is attributed to the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate cuts in February and May, along with expectations of further rate reductions [1] - The auction clearance rates in the housing market have improved following the May rate cut, indicating a positive outlook for housing prices in June and the remainder of the year [1] Regional Performance - The median housing value in Australia reached approximately AUD 831,300 (around RMB 3.8485 million) in May [2] - The median housing value for the eight capital cities was about AUD 911,500, while the median for regional areas was approximately AUD 678,800 [2] - Sydney and Melbourne saw month-on-month increases of 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of 1.1% and -1.2% [2] - Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth experienced month-on-month increases of 0.6%, 0.4%, and 0.7%, with year-on-year increases of 7.1%, 8.6%, and 8.6% respectively [2]

金十数据6月2日讯，荷兰国际集团货币分析师Chris Turner在报告中称："英镑保持相对支撑，尤其是兑 美元。"他表示，随着利率下降，周一英国房价数据的好转可能有助于支撑英国经济。Nationwide 的数 据显示，上个月的房价比一年前上涨了3.5%。LSEG数据显示，英镑兑美元GBP/USD升至1.3557的日内 高点，逼近上周1.3593美元的三年高点。 分析师：房价数据好转有助于支撑英国经济 英镑保持坚挺 ...

Core Insights - Sydney is projected to become the most expensive city in the world for housing within the next 12 months, with a median price-to-income ratio of 13.8 times [1][7] - The Demographia International Housing Affordability Report highlights that Australia is one of the least affordable housing markets globally, with no major market meeting affordability standards [1][3] - The report indicates that other major Australian cities like Adelaide, Brisbane, and Melbourne also have high price-to-income ratios, contributing to the overall housing affordability crisis in the country [1][4] Housing Market Trends - Australia's median house prices are now double those in the United States and significantly higher than in the UK, reflecting a dramatic increase from a median multiple of 2.8 in 1987 to over 5.6 today [3] - The report ranks Sydney second globally for housing affordability, with other cities like Adelaide and Melbourne also ranking high on the list of least affordable markets [4][7] - Recent auction activity in Sydney has shown a surge in buyer interest, with a notable auction resulting in a property selling for 5.5 million AUD after a competitive bidding process [8][10] Auction Market Dynamics - The preliminary clearance rate for major cities reached 70%, indicating a robust auction market following recent holidays and elections [8][10] - Sydney's auction market is experiencing a significant increase in participation, with an average of 8.3 registered bidders per auction, more than double the usual level [10] - Factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts and a clear election outcome have contributed to improved market confidence among buyers [12]

02 从香河到次贷危机：《置身事内》中的"杠杆缓冲"密码 你好呀，我是京京，这是我第108篇原创文章。 读书写作实现自由职业的北漂姑娘，今天更要加油鸭！ 01 香河房价腰斩：一个县域楼市的兴衰镜像 曾经被视为"北京后花园"的香河，房价从2013年的千元时代飙升至 2016年的22900元 / 平米，投资客蜂 拥而至的狂热背后，是"京津冀一体化"规划下的区域价值想象。 但2017年廊坊限购令落地后，房价一路跌回千元区间，甚至出现"免费送房无人问津"的景象。 这场楼市过山车不仅暴露了县域房地产依赖外部利好的脆弱性，更折射出中国城镇化进程中局部市场供 需失衡的典型困境--当政策红利退潮、投资需求离场，缺乏真实居住支撑的房价泡沫终将破裂。 当我们把目光从香河的困局回溯到2008年那场席卷全球的金融风暴，兰小欢教授在《置身事内》一书中 揭示了中国独特的应对密码。 书中精辟分析指出，当欧美深陷次贷危机泥沼时，中国之所以能相对"独善其身"，一个关键因素在于当 时居民部门较低的杠杆率提供了宝贵的缓冲空间。 政府通过"四万亿"刺激计划及配套的土地财政、金融政策和宽松信贷环境，强力托底经济，尤其刺激了 房地产市场和基础设施建设。 ...

《悉尼晨锋报》5月31日报道，悉尼CBD 10公里范围内且房价低于200万澳元的热门 城区吸引了许多潜 在买家。 买家们急于在更多降息措施出台、市场竞争加剧之前抢 购房产。 澳联储今年已两次下调官方利率，并暗示将进一步降息。加上联邦大选结果明朗， 市场信心和恐慌性 购房情绪都出现显著增强。 因此，许多人预测，内西区、南区和西南区的一些更受欢迎的城区可能会出现房价 增长。 Domain的Nicola Powell表示："随着利率进一步下调，很可能为房地产市场提供更 多动力。随着抵押贷 款利率持续下降，这将提振买家情绪和信心。" "由于料将继续降息，我们预计这将推高房价，尽管可负担性不足将抑制价格增 长，尤其是在那些房价 低于200万澳元的黄金地段。不过，这种增长不会达到之前 繁荣时期的水平。" | Suburb | Median | Annual Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Redfern | $2,000,000 | 10.7% | | Newtown | $1,827,500 | 5.0% | | Erskineville | $1,910,000 | 10.7% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is expected to continue its downward trend into 2025, with significant declines in both sales volume and prices, as predicted by Li Ka-shing in 2018 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January to April 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 29,252 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2% [2]. - The sales revenue of new commercial housing was 28,067 billion yuan, down 28.3%, with residential sales revenue declining by 31.1% [2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, 53 out of 70 major cities experienced a month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices, with 12 cities seeing a drop of over 1.5% [2]. Group 2: Predictions and Trends - The real estate market is expected to undergo three major changes in the second half of 2025: 1. Price differentiation will occur, with previously declining prices in second and third-tier cities stabilizing, while core areas of first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen will start to see price corrections [6]. 2. The government will intensify market rescue efforts, with more policies expected to be introduced, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions and further reductions in mortgage rates [6]. 3. A significant reshuffling of real estate companies is anticipated, particularly affecting those with high debt ratios (70%-80%) that are facing financial difficulties [8]. Group 3: Li Ka-shing's Insights - Li Ka-shing's 2018 prediction highlighted that high property prices in mainland China were unsustainable and would eventually lead to a return to housing's fundamental purpose, warning investors to be cautious [4]. - He also indicated that companies with high debt and declining sales would face bankruptcy or restructuring, while financially stable firms would survive [4].

Core Insights - The current real estate market in first-tier cities is experiencing a phenomenon of "panic selling," with a significant increase in property listings and a notable decrease in transaction volumes [1][5] - The overall trend indicates a downward trajectory for housing prices, driven by various factors including reduced demand for mortgages and ineffective government policies [3][7][8] Group 1: Panic Selling Phenomenon - In the past three months, there has been a 32.7% year-on-year increase in the number of second-hand homes listed in first-tier cities, while transaction volumes have decreased by 18.3% [1][5] - In addition to first-tier cities, second and third-tier cities are also witnessing a surge in listings, with cities like Chongqing exceeding 200,000 listings and some cities experiencing daily new listings that are five times the transaction volume [1][5] Group 2: Price Downward Trend - As of the first quarter of 2025, 53 out of 70 major cities in China have reported a month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices, with 12 cities experiencing declines greater than 1.5% [5][7] - The significant drop in housing prices is attributed to the loss of profit-making opportunities in the market, prompting many investors to liquidate their assets [5][7] Group 3: Decline in Mortgage Demand - There has been a sharp decline in the demand for housing loans, with new long-term loans for households amounting to 382.7 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of 123.5 billion yuan or 24.4% year-on-year [7] - The decline in demand is primarily due to residents' income levels being insufficient to support high housing prices and a general pessimism regarding future price trends [7] Group 4: Ineffectiveness of Government Policies - Since 2024, various government measures aimed at stabilizing the housing market, such as lifting purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios, have had limited success in reversing the downward trend in housing prices [8] - The current market adjustment is characterized by a longer cycle compared to previous downturns, with an average price drop exceeding 30% since 2021 [11] Group 5: Characteristics of Current Market Adjustment - The current market adjustment has lasted three years, indicating a longer cycle compared to past adjustments [11] - The sequence of price declines has been evident, with second and third-tier cities experiencing initial drops followed by first-tier cities [12] - A significant number of real estate companies are facing bankruptcy or restructuring, with 27 major firms reported to have declared bankruptcy or entered restructuring as of April 2025 [15]

金十数据5月29日讯，美国全国房地产经纪人协会周四发布的数据显示，上月美国成屋待完成销售跌幅 创下2022年9月以来最大，凸显春季销售季表现低迷，潜在买家因高昂的要价和借贷成本望而却步。这 一令人失望的数据表明，二手房市场将持续低迷，直至房价从创纪录水平回落、抵押贷款利率从当前的 7%降至更接近6%的水平。尽管更多房主开始挂牌出售房屋，但仍有部分人在等待更便宜的融资选择。 NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun强调，当前市场"完全由抵押贷款利率主导"。尽管住房库存有所增加， 但我们并未看到房屋销售上升。较低的抵押贷款利率是吸引购房者重返市场的关键。 美国成屋待完成销售创近两年最大跌幅 高房价与利率压制春季购房市场 ...