Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating," with short - term prices expected to be on the stronger side [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - Macro - favorable news such as "anti - involution," Shanxi's crude steel reduction, and "urban renewal" has fermented, leading to a significant upward movement in prices. The market is dominated by macro - policy imagination during the off - season. The fundamentals have no significant contradictions, and the rally in the futures market has spurred downstream restocking, causing spot prices to rise in resonance. In the short term, prices are expected to run strongly [1][2]. - The expectation of a new round of supply - side reform for steel is increasing, and the warming market sentiment has spurred speculative demand, forming a positive feedback for the industrial chain. Against the backdrop of decent spot fundamentals, the futures market is expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations [2]. Carbon Element - In Shanxi, the coal mines affected by previous accidents are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production. Overall, supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [6]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal and a high - level urban renewal meeting has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [6]. Steel - The supply - side contraction expectation formed by the "anti - involution" policy and Shanxi's production - limit news, as well as the demand - side improvement expectation such as "urban renewal," have jointly promoted the futures market to be strong. After the futures rally, spot trading sentiment has improved. This week, the supply and demand of rebar have both decreased, and inventory has continued to decline; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both decreased, and inventory has slightly increased; the supply and demand of the five major steel products have both decreased, and inventory changes are limited, with the absolute inventory at a relatively low level over the years. In the short term, with the warming of the macro - sentiment and no obvious negative factors in the fundamentals, steel prices are expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume has decreased. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With good market sentiment and decent fundamentals, the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise rather than fall [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The fundamentals are stable, and the price is oscillating. The apparent demand and production of rebar have slightly decreased, in line with off - season characteristics, and the total inventory has continued to decline, indicating some resilience in off - season demand. After the market sentiment has warmed up, raw material prices have risen significantly, and the futures price has oscillated upward. This week, the average daily arrival volume of scrap steel has slightly increased but is still lower than the same period last year, and resources are slightly tight. After the rise in steel prices, the profitability of some electric furnaces has recovered, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased; the iron - making volume of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also decreased. Although the arrival volume has slightly increased this week, the daily consumption is at a relatively high level in the same period, and factory inventories have slightly decreased [10]. Coke - The futures price of coke has strengthened following coking coal. On the supply side, most coke enterprises are maintaining normal production, while a small number of enterprises with poor profitability have reduced production, and coke production has slightly decreased. On the demand side, the average daily iron - making volume has decreased this week but remains at a high level year - on - year. Steel mills' profitability is good, and they are actively restocking. Recently, the futures market has been strong, and arbitrage demand has been actively purchasing, leading to a rapid reduction in coke inventories of coke enterprises. The current supply - demand pattern of coke has further improved. In the short term, coke prices are likely to rise rather than fall under the strong pull of raw coal prices [10][11][13]. Coking Coal - Market sentiment has been high, and coking coal prices have continued to rise. On the supply side, coal mines affected by previous accidents in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production, and overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports. Upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories, and the positive market sentiment remains, so the futures market is expected to be supported in the short term [11][12][13]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing. In the short term, one should wait and see the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, downstream expectations may improve, leading to a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long run, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [14]. Soda Ash - The supply - side over - supply pattern has not changed. The market has spread the news of "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry, with an expected significant reduction in daily melting, and the current daily melting of photovoltaic glass has slightly decreased, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with weak demand expectations. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to cut prices. Sentiment is interfering with the futures market, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Although the short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, the over - supply problem still exists after the positive feedback. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and in the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [6][14][16]. Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6][16]. Ferrosilicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for ferrosilicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia and Qinghai has caused the ferrosilicon futures price to rise strongly, but this news has been proven false. During the steel tender period, the amount of low - priced goods in the market has decreased, and the strong futures market has driven up the spot price. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened. The supply of ferrosilicon is increasing. The downstream demand for steelmaking remains resilient. Attention should be paid to the price of this round of steel tenders. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [18][19].

其 他 报 告 2025年07月11日 晨会纪要 | 国内市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 上证综合指数 | 3510 | 0.48 | 1.40 | | 深证成份指数 | 10631 | 0.47 | 1.25 | | 沪深300指数 | 4010 | 0.47 | 1.54 | | 创业板指数 | 2190 | 0.22 | 1.50 | | 上证国债指数 | 226 | -0.02 | 0.16 | | 上证基金指数 | 6949 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 资料来源:同花顺iFinD | 海外市场 | | 涨跌幅（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘 | 1日 | 上周 | | 中国香港恒生指数 | 24028 | 0.57 | -1.52 | | 中国香港国企指数 | 8668 | 0.83 | -1.75 | | 中国台湾加权指数 | 22693 | 0.74 | -0.14 | | 道琼斯指数 | 44458 | 0.49 | 2.30 | | ...

【市场数据】 截至10日收盘，上证综指涨0.48%，报3509.68点；科创50指数跌0.32%，报979.99点；深证成指涨 0.47%，报10631.13点；创业板指涨0.22%，报2189.58点。 4、据智通财经，7月10日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。法新社记者提问，美国总统特朗普昨天 宣布将对进口的铜征收50%的关税，理由是国家安全，请问中方对此有何评论？"这个问题我们立场非 常明确。"毛宁强调，我们一贯反对泛化国家安全概念，我们也始终认为关税战、贸易战没有赢家，滥 施关税不符合任何一方的利益。 5、7月10日，据央视新闻，针对《关于在政府采购活动中对自欧盟进口的医疗器械采取相关措施的通 知》，财政部对有关方面关注的问题进行了解答。解答提到，对于4500万元人民币以上的医疗器械政府 采购项目，未分包开展采购的，非欧盟企业提供的自欧盟进口的医疗器械占比不得超过该项目合同总金 额的50%；分包开展采购的，非欧盟企业提供的自欧盟进口的医疗器械占比不得超过分包后单个采购包 合同金额的50%。采购人分包开展采购时，应当结合采购实际，按照专业类型、专业领域、规格等次 等，对采购项目合理分包。 6、据央广网 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to deepen capital market reforms and enhance communication with local governments to support high-quality development in Henan province [1] Group 1: Capital Market Reforms - The CSRC plans to comprehensively deepen capital market reforms tailored to local needs [1] - There will be improvements in institutional frameworks and product supply within the capital markets [1] Group 2: Support for Innovation and Quality - The focus will be on integrating technological and industrial innovation while improving the quality of listed companies [1] - The CSRC will also work on risk prevention in the financial sector [1] Group 3: Market Expansion and Rural Support - Efforts will be made to expand the breadth and depth of futures market services [1] - The CSRC will support rural revitalization and targeted assistance initiatives [1]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting focused on advancing the rectification of issues identified in the central ecological environment protection inspection, emphasizing the importance of implementing the "Ecological Environment Protection Inspection Work Regulations" to enhance ecological governance and promote sustainable development in Jiangsu [1][2]. Group 1: Key Actions and Strategies - The provincial leadership stressed the need for a pragmatic approach to ensure thorough rectification of inspection issues, with a focus on systematic and comprehensive measures to address problems effectively [2]. - Emphasis was placed on the importance of accountability, with a clear delineation of responsibilities among party and government officials to ensure effective implementation of rectification measures [2][3]. - Continuous monitoring and emergency response mechanisms are to be strengthened to combat pollution and ensure the safety of water bodies, particularly Lake Tai, during the summer [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework and Governance - The "Ecological Environment Protection Inspection Work Regulations" were highlighted as a crucial framework for standardizing inspection processes and enhancing the effectiveness of ecological governance [1][4]. - The meeting included discussions on the progress of rectification efforts across various cities and departments, indicating a collaborative approach to addressing ecological issues [4]. - The need for innovation and reform in ecological governance was emphasized, with a focus on integrating technology to improve monitoring and problem-solving capabilities [3].

河南省委书记刘宁王凯会见中国证监会主席吴清 智通财经7月11日电，据"河南发布"消息，7月10日，河南省委书记刘宁、省长王凯在郑州会见中国证监 会党委书记、主席吴清一行。 刘宁、王凯代表省委、省政府向吴清一行表示欢迎，对中国证监会长期以来给予河南金融工作的支持帮 助表示感谢。刘宁说，河南深入贯彻落实习近平总书记关于金融工作的重要论述和在河南考察时重要讲 话精神，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，聚焦"1+2+4+N"目标任务体系，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳 预期，经济社会保持平稳健康发展。特别是河南近年来紧扣高质量发展首要任务，全方位推进防风险、 强监管、促发展，做好科技金融、绿色金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融"五篇大文章"，不断健全 资本市场体系，大力培育市场经营主体，促进债券市场、期货市场蓬勃发展。希望中国证监会一如既往 支持河南发展，在优质上市公司培育和境内外发行上市、融入服务全国统一大市场、加强金融监管、化 解金融风险等方面给予更多指导和政策支持，更好为实体经济发展注入"金融活水"，推动我省金融事业 再上新台阶。我们将打造更优环境、提供更好保障，大力支持中国证监会在豫机构工作，携手推动资本 市场健康发展 ...

Core Insights - The extreme high temperatures in China are becoming a new normal, with temperatures exceeding 40°C expected to be more common this summer [2] - The tourism industry, traditionally busy during the summer months, is experiencing a significant decline in visitor numbers due to extreme heat [3][4] - The changing consumer mindset towards leisure and vacation is leading to a shift away from traditional scenic spots to new entertainment options [11][20] Group 1: Impact of Extreme Heat on Tourism - On July 10, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued over 200 high-temperature warnings, indicating that most regions experienced temperatures above 35°C, with many exceeding 37°C [1] - Theme parks and outdoor attractions are seeing a 30% drop in daily visitor numbers due to extreme heat, with many visitors unable to stay for long periods [4][5] - Even in cooler mountainous areas, visitor numbers are down as the distance from urban centers and the extreme heat deter potential tourists [6][7] Group 2: Changing Consumer Preferences - The traditional view of visiting scenic spots for leisure is shifting; families are now prioritizing comfort and convenience over visiting crowded tourist attractions [9][10] - The core purpose of summer travel for families has evolved to simply finding places for children to expend energy while adults relax, rather than visiting traditional scenic spots [19][20] - New leisure and entertainment options are increasingly attracting visitors away from traditional scenic areas, as they offer more appealing experiences during extreme heat [21][22] Group 3: Strategies for Scenic Areas - Scenic area operators are recognizing that extreme heat is not the sole reason for declining visitor numbers; a lack of innovative attractions is a significant factor [28] - Some scenic areas are adapting by extending operating hours into the evening, adding cooling features, and hosting events to attract visitors despite the heat [30][31][32] - Operators are aware of the competitive landscape, with urban commercial complexes increasingly drawing visitors away from traditional scenic spots [23][24]

Group 1 - As of July 10, 2025, 187 A-share listed companies have disclosed their half-year performance forecasts, with 139 companies expecting profit increases, accounting for 74.33% [2] - The sectors showing significant growth include power, semiconductors, wind power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture, indicating a positive market sentiment [2] - Notably, 67 companies anticipate a net profit growth of over 100%, with 20 companies expecting over 300% growth, and 7 companies projecting over 1000% growth [3] Group 2 - The top performer, Huayin Power, forecasts a profit increase of up to 4423%, while other notable companies like First Technology and Tianbao Infrastructure expect increases of 2835% and 2329%, respectively [3] - A total of 38 companies are expected to report net profits exceeding 5 billion yuan, with Industrial Fulian leading at an estimated 12.158 billion yuan [4] - The significant profit growth for Huayin Power is attributed to increased power generation and decreased fuel costs [5] Group 3 - A-share profitability is stabilizing, with a reported net profit growth of 3.63% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery from a previous decline [6] - Analysts suggest that improving performance expectations can stabilize market sentiment and reduce short-term volatility, particularly in sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery [6] - The ongoing development of the AI industry and high demand in electronics and communications sectors are expected to maintain positive growth trends [6]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Henan provincial leaders and the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the importance of capital market reform and financial support for Henan's economic development [1] Group 1: Economic Context - Henan has a large economic scale, advantageous geographical location, solid industrial foundation, and vast market potential [1] - Recent achievements in building a modern industrial system and fostering new productive forces in Henan are highlighted as impressive [1] Group 2: Regulatory Support - The CSRC expresses gratitude for the support from Henan's provincial government and emphasizes the need for deepening communication and cooperation with local authorities [1] - The CSRC aims to implement the decisions of the Central Committee and the State Council, focusing on stability while promoting progress [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The CSRC plans to enhance the capital market by improving systems and product supply, leveraging multi-level market functions [1] - Key areas of focus include supporting technological and industrial innovation, improving the quality of listed companies, managing financial risks, expanding the futures market, and aiding rural revitalization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rising rice prices in Japan have become a critical issue in the upcoming Senate elections, with the government facing criticism for its handling of the situation and the role of the agricultural cooperative (JA) being scrutinized [1][2][3]. Group 1: Rice Price Crisis - Japan has been experiencing a "rice shortage" since last summer, leading to skyrocketing rice prices and political turmoil [1][2]. - Although rice prices have decreased from their peak, they remain significantly higher than the same period last year, contributing to the declining approval ratings of Prime Minister Kishida's administration [2][3]. - The resignation of former Agriculture Minister Takumi Eto, due to his comments about never having bought rice, highlights the political ramifications of the rice price crisis [2]. Group 2: Role of Agricultural Cooperatives - The Japanese agricultural cooperative (JA) has been criticized for its role in maintaining high rice prices through policies that limit rice production [3][9]. - The JA has historically been a powerful entity in Japan, with significant political influence and a close relationship with government officials, forming a "political-agricultural" triangle that hinders agricultural reform [10][11]. - The JA's financial power is substantial, with over 100 trillion yen in deposits and more than 10 million members, complicating efforts for reform [9][10]. Group 3: Government Response and Reforms - In response to the rice price crisis, the government has taken measures to bypass the JA, including direct purchases from farmers and selling reserve rice through free contracts [5][6]. - New Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi has implemented policies aimed at increasing rice production, which the JA has historically opposed [5][6]. - The government's attempts to reform the JA have faced resistance, as the cooperative's influence remains strong, particularly in rural areas where the ruling party relies on JA support [13][14]. Group 4: Political Implications - The upcoming Senate elections are expected to focus on rice price management and agricultural policies, with the ruling party's performance potentially affected by its handling of the rice crisis [2][14]. - The intertwining of agricultural policies with political interests complicates the government's ability to implement effective reforms without alienating key support bases [13][14]. - The situation presents a significant challenge for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, as it navigates the complexities of agricultural policy and electoral support [14].