由于通胀放缓且有迹象表明经济在高借贷成本的压力下陷入困境，俄罗斯央行近三年来首次下调利率。俄罗斯央行周五将基准利率大幅下调100个基点至 20%。 此次降息发生在通胀放缓之际，同时有迹象表明高借贷成本正使经济陷入困境。接受彭博调查的5位经济学家中有1人预测降息200个基点，另有4人预期将维 持21%的历史高位不变。 央行在政策声明中表示，"当前通胀压力(包括基础通胀)持续减弱，""紧缩货币政策对需求的抑制效果正通过通胀下行日益显现。" 自去年10月以来，决策者始终维持高利率以对抗两倍于4%目标水平的通胀。但随着物价增速放缓迹象显现，政府部长和商界领袖近期频频发声呼吁宽松政 策以支持战时经济。 俄罗斯央行2022年以来首次下调基准利率 政府对经济下行风险担忧加剧，多数行业已出现萎缩。经济部长马克西姆.列舍特尼科夫在议息会议前公开呼吁降息刺激增长，称部分领域降温过快。行长 埃尔维拉.纳比乌琳娜将于莫斯科时间下午3点举行新闻发布会。 纳比乌琳娜的货币政策已初见成效。央行数据显示，经季节调整的年化通胀率从3月的7%降至4月的6.2%。复兴资本估计5月该指标已回落至4%的目标水 平。截至6月2日，年通胀率降至9.8%。 ...

俄罗斯央行行长纳比乌琳娜：如果预算的通胀抑制效果低于预期，这将需要对货币政策进行调整。 ...

日前，江苏省人民政府发布《关于印发江苏省实施提振消费专项行动若干措施的通知》，其中提到， 2025年新建改扩建80所义务教育学校；鼓励有条件的地方试行将"五一"前3个工作日、"国庆"前3个工作 日分别设置为中小学春假和秋假；加大租房以及建造、翻建、大修自住住房等提取住房公积金支持力 度，支持有条件的地方允许购房人父母、子女按规定提取住房公积金支付购房首付款，提高住房公积金 贷款额度、优化贷款条件；鼓励用人单位和职工通过集体协商确定灵活休假和弹性工作方式。推进落实 父母育儿假制度，鼓励夫妻共享育儿假等。(南京发布) ...

诉讼驳斥美国联邦政府此举是为了"维护国家安全"的说法，表示该公告是政府报复行动的加剧和强 化。 特朗普4日签署公告，以所谓维护国家安全的名义限制哈佛大学国际学生签证，暂停在哈佛大学学 习或参加交流项目的外国公民入境。 新华社华盛顿6月5日电 美国联邦法官5日颁布临时限制令，阻止特朗普政府执行4日颁布的对哈佛 大学国际学生实行签证限制的公告。 哈佛大学5日说，已修改一项针对特朗普政府禁止其招收国际学生的现有诉讼，提请法院阻止特朗 普政府4日颁布的对哈佛大学国际学生实行签证限制的公告。联邦法官在校方提交修改后的诉讼后仅四 小时就颁布这一临时限制令。 修改后的法庭文件说，特朗普暂停哈佛大学国际学生签证的公告违宪，"国土安全部部长和总统大 笔一挥，就试图抹去哈佛四分之一的学生""没有国际学生，哈佛就不是哈佛"。 哈佛大学当天在官网上发表声明说，"这是联邦政府针对哈佛大学的又一非法报复"，哈佛大学将继 续保护其国际学生和学者。 特朗普再次入主白宫后，已经对美国多所高校"开火"，声称如果校方不调整政策，将面临削减资金 的后果。特朗普政府的主要要求包括根除"校园内的反犹主义"、废除高校向少数族裔倾斜的多元化举措 等。 美国 ...

美联储哈克：硬数据依然强劲，美国经济具有韧性，但基础面存在压力。尚不清楚政策调整将如何影响 经济。 ...

总结 新的 由于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对全球贸易的冲击使通胀和经济前景黯淡，欧洲央⾏将第⼋次降低利率。 据彭博社调查的 所有分析师称，存款利率将于周四下调四分之⼀个百分点⾄2%。预计9⽉份将再次下调，届时 与美国的谈判应该已经结束，新的预测将揭⽰关税的全部影响。 ⼀致预期欧洲央⾏六⽉降息 2025/6/5 13:14 贸易乱局拖累经济，欧洲央⾏将降息 - 彭博 经济学 | 中央银⾏ 贸易乱局拖累经济，欧洲央⾏将降息 作者：Jana Randow 2025年6⽉5⽇中午12点（GMT+8） 周四，德国总理弗⾥德⾥希·梅尔茨还将在⽩宫与特朗普讨论贸易问题，⽽北约国防部⻓将讨论提⾼⽀出⽬标和对 乌克兰的⽀持，这凸显了欧洲央⾏必须应对迅速变化的全球形势。 点击此处关注欧洲央⾏ TLIV 博客 利率 ⽆论是鹰派还是鸽派的政策制定者都表⽰，他们已经基本完成了降低借贷成本的措施，其中⼀些⼈甚⾄公开讨论放 慢宽松步伐。 欧洲央⾏管理委员会委员法⽐奥·帕内塔上周表⽰，通货紧缩"⽬前已接近完成"。这⼀⾔论可能意味着欧洲央⾏将 对政策声明中的措辞进⾏调整，并在 7 ⽉份暂停通货紧缩。 Explore Offers Get unli ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent calls from multiple Federal Reserve officials for cautious interest rate cuts due to concerns that President Trump's tariff policies may lead to long-term inflation, particularly affecting public inflation expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming policy meeting [1] - Some economists and Fed officials believe that Trump's tariff policies will lead to rising inflation and unemployment, as well as slower economic growth [1] - Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed that the inflation caused by tariffs might be a one-time shock, suggesting potential rate cuts by the end of the year [1][3] - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated that it is too early to determine if the inflation impact from tariffs is temporary, complicating the Fed's assessment of future inflation trends [1][3] Group 2: Inflation Data and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% in April, a slowdown from 0.7% in March [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since April 2021 [3] - Some analysts believe that the better-than-expected inflation data may be interpreted by the Fed as a calm before a storm, leading to a wait-and-see approach [3] Group 3: Tariff Policy Implications - Trump's tariff policies have seen significant increases, with an average tariff rate on China reaching as high as 165% before being reduced to around 50% following a phase trade agreement [5] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff implementation has raised concerns about its long-term impact on inflation, as gradual policy changes may affect consumer and business behavior [4][5] - Fed Governor Lisa Cook emphasized the need for potential interest rate hikes to prevent rising inflation expectations, noting that trade policies are beginning to impact the economy [6] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The sustainability of tariff-induced inflation is contingent on the evolution of trade policies and their economic impact, with short-term effects already visible [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's policy adjustments will be cautious, closely monitoring economic data and the effects of tariff policies [7] - In the long run, as the economic impact of tariffs becomes more pronounced, the necessity for Fed rate cuts may increase, leading to a more dovish policy stance [7]

当地时间6月4日，根据美国白宫发布的一份声明，美国总统特朗普全面暂停12个国家的公民以移民和非 移民身份进入美国，这些国家分别是阿富汗、缅甸、乍得、刚果共和国、赤道几内亚、厄立特里亚、海 地、伊朗、利比亚、索马里、苏丹和也门。 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is experiencing significant fluctuations, with a notable decline in new home sales and second-hand home prices in 2024, but signs of recovery are emerging in 2025 [1][3][4] Market Performance - In 2024, the national new residential sales area decreased by 12.9%, and second-hand home prices fell across all major cities, with Xiamen seeing a drop of 13.1% [1] - By April 2025, 22 out of 70 major cities reported a month-on-month increase in new home prices, and the transaction volume of second-hand homes in core areas like Beijing and Shanghai surged by 30% year-on-year [3] Policy Changes - The central government is actively promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, with measures such as reducing down payment ratios to 15% and lowering mortgage rates to just above 3% [3] - A significant investment plan for 2025 includes the addition of 1 million urban village renovation projects and the conversion of existing housing stock into affordable housing [3] Market Segmentation - Major cities and strong second-tier cities are stabilizing due to economic vitality and population inflow, while third and fourth-tier cities are struggling with significant declines in land sale revenues and high inventory levels [4][5] - In June 2025, the average new home price in Zhengzhou was 13,404 yuan per square meter, with core area properties showing strong sales, while suburban areas continued to see price declines of 3%-8% [3][4] Investment Opportunities - The shift in policy to classify real estate as "mass consumption" is expected to stimulate demand, particularly for larger homes with improved standards [5] - Financial innovations such as REITs for affordable housing and commercial properties are providing new funding avenues for developers, potentially stabilizing returns for investors [5] Future Outlook - Predictions indicate that core city home prices may rise by 3%-5% with transaction volumes increasing by 15%, while third and fourth-tier cities may continue to see price declines of 3%-8% [6] - The overall sentiment suggests that the real estate market is nearing a bottom, with a high probability of recovery in the coming year [5][6]

Group 1 - The U.S. job market has experienced a significant slowdown, with hiring rates dropping to the lowest level in two years, far below economists' expectations, leading to increased rate cut predictions [1][3] - In May, ADP reported an increase of only 37,000 jobs, which is the lowest since March 2023 and significantly below the expected 114,000 jobs, with the previous month's figure at 62,000 [1][3] - The data indicates a notable decline in employer demand for new employees, contrasting with the relatively stable job growth observed in previous months [3] Group 2 - Key industries such as business services, education, and healthcare are experiencing layoffs, while trade, transportation, and manufacturing are also reducing positions; only the leisure and hospitality sector and financial activities are seeing job growth, which is insufficient to offset declines in other sectors [3] - Wage growth has stagnated, with salary increases for job switchers at 7% and for retained employees at only 4.5% [4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to show a slowdown in job growth compared to April, with the unemployment rate remaining stable; however, the ADP data raises concerns about potential policy adjustments by the Federal Reserve [6]