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如何看待5月后煤炭板块走势?
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-04 23:30
报告要点 [Table_Summary] 五一期间,坑口动力煤价仍有回落,受大秦线检修结束影响,港口调入增加&下游需求疲软致港 口库存高位运行,预计节后煤价仍有回落压力。不过当前煤炭板块仍存积极因素:1)旺季补库 &夏季高温有望推动需求季节性改善;2)进口煤量有望继续收缩;3)估值&持仓在近 2-3 年偏 低;4)煤炭和内需相关性偏高防御属性有望较强,因此建议关注未来 1-2 个季度内动力煤板块 配置价值。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 如何看待 5 月后煤炭板块走势? SAC:S0490516080003 SAC:S0490519030001 SAC:S0490517070008 SAC:S0490522090003 SAC:S0490524120007 SFC:BUT918 SFC:BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 如何看待 5 ...
淮北矿业(600985):煤炭量价影响利润 新项目推进公司稳步成长
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 00:41
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in Q1 2025 financial performance, with revenue and net profit dropping sharply due to lower production and sales volumes in the coal sector, alongside price reductions in various products [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.0% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 690 million yuan, down 56.5% year-on-year [1] - The adjusted net profit was 670 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 59.96% year-on-year [1] Coal Production and Sales - The company's coal production in Q1 2025 was 4.31 million tons, a decrease of 17.73% year-on-year [1] - Coal sales volume was 2.97 million tons, down 26.18% year-on-year [1] - The average selling price of coal was 938 yuan per ton, a decline of 20.3% year-on-year [1] - The cost per ton was 520 yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year, resulting in a gross profit of 418 yuan per ton, which is a 28.4% decrease year-on-year [1] Chemical Sector Performance - The company’s anhydrous ethanol project, with a capacity of 600,000 tons, commenced production in 2024 and is expected to contribute profits in 2025 [2] - In Q1 2025, the production and sales of anhydrous ethanol were 100,000 tons and 90,000 tons respectively, generating revenue of 440 million yuan [2] - The production and sales of coke were 740,000 tons and 700,000 tons, down 15.2% and 18.8% year-on-year respectively, with a selling price of 1,499 yuan per ton, a decrease of 35.2% [2] - Methanol production was 120,000 tons, up 31.16% year-on-year, while sales were 40,000 tons, down 47.23% year-on-year [2] Project Development - The company is advancing several new projects, including an 8 million ton coal project expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [3] - Non-coal business includes the acquisition of 10 million tons of limestone resources and the establishment of 7 mines, increasing limestone production capacity to 27.4 million tons per year [3] - The company is also progressing on a 2×660MW supercritical power generation project, expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [3] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 56.9 billion yuan, 58.3 billion yuan, and 57.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year changes of -13.60%, +2.51%, and -1.93% respectively [3] - Expected net profits for the same period are 3.39 billion yuan, 3.94 billion yuan, and 4.64 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -30.3%, +16.3%, and +18.0% respectively [3]
航天工程(603698):一季度业绩同比大幅增长,新签订单稳步推进
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-01 05:44
丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨航天工程(603698.SH) [Table_Title] 一季度业绩同比大幅增长,新签订单稳步推 进 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年一季度报告,2025 年第一季度营业收入 8.47 亿元,同比上升 256.78%;归 母净利润 0.34 亿元,同比上升 163.97%;扣非归母净利润 0.33 亿元,同比上升 172.17%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 魏凯 侯彦飞 SAC:S0490520080009 SAC:S0490521050002 SFC:BUT964 SFC:BVN517 航天工程(603698.SH) cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 一季度业绩同比大幅增长,新签订单稳步推进 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司发布 2025 年一季度报告,2025 年第一季度营业收入 8.47 亿元,同比上升 256.78%;归 母净利润 0.34 亿元,同比上升 163.97%;扣非归母净利润 0.33 亿元,同比上升 172.17%。 事件评论 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% ...
2025年一季度数据及业绩综述:一季度业绩下降,静待需求好转
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-01 01:53
证券研究报告 一季度业绩下降,静待需求好转 ➢ 业绩总结:一季度煤炭板块业绩整体下降。 ➢ 从整体看,2025年Q1中信煤炭板块归母净利润合计241.2亿元,同比下降41.5%。分子版块来看, 动力煤板块利润下降35.9%,无烟煤板块利润下降37.6%,炼焦煤板 块利润下降69.5%,焦炭板块利润减亏,其他煤化工板块利润下降64.5%。37家上市公司中,25家上市公司盈利,比去年同期减少2家。25家盈利的上市公司中,归属 母公司净利润同比下降的有23家。 投资建议:一季度受假期、气温偏高等因素影响,需求偏弱,供给增加,煤价下降,但动力煤企业因长协价格制度,一季度业绩相对偏稳。需关注后续需求好转;预计 煤价短期仍有下行压力,5月中旬有望反弹。政策方面,煤炭协会发倡议要求,控制产量,提高质量。当前需求或为全年底部,供应下降,旺季煤价有望反弹,维持行业 "看好"评级。逢低布局高股息动力煤公司。优先关注动力煤公司中国神华、陕西煤业、中煤能源等;焦煤公司关注淮北矿业、潞安环能等;同时关注利润同比改善的焦 炭公司金能科技、美锦能源等。 风险提示:海外经济放缓;产能大量释放;新能源的替代;安全事故影响。 ——2025年一季 ...
山西焦煤:做优做强主业与提质增效并进,公司业绩改善可期-20250430
Xinda Securities· 2025-04-30 10:23
证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 山西焦煤(000983) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号:S1500518070001 联系电话:010-83326712 邮 箱:zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高 升 能源、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号:S1500524100002 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编:100031 [Table_Title] 做优做强主业与提质增效并进,公司业绩改善可期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 30 日 [Table_S 事件:2025 ummar年y]4 月 28 日 ,山西焦煤发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报, 2024 年全年,公司实现营业收入 452.90 亿元,同比下降 18.43%,实现归 母净利润 31.08 亿元,同比下降 54.10%;扣非后净利润 30.15 亿元,同比 下降 55.77%。经营 ...
山西焦煤(000983):做优做强主业与提质增效并进,公司业绩改善可期
Xinda Securities· 2025-04-30 09:03
投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号:S1500518070001 联系电话:010-83326712 邮 箱:zuoqianming@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 山西焦煤(000983) 高 升 能源、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号:S1500524100002 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编:100031 [Table_Title] 做优做强主业与提质增效并进,公司业绩改善可期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 30 日 [Table_S 事件:2025 ummar年y]4 月 28 日 ,山西焦煤发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报, 2024 年全年,公司实现营业收入 452.90 亿元,同比下降 18.43%,实现归 母净利润 31.08 亿元,同比下降 54.10%;扣非后净利润 30.15 亿元,同比 下降 55.77%。经营 ...
大秦铁路(601006):煤炭需求偏弱,成本刚性上涨
HTSC· 2025-04-30 08:58
证券研究报告 大秦铁路 (601006 CH) 煤炭需求偏弱,成本刚性上涨 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 30 日│中国内地 | 铁路运输 | 大秦铁路发布 24 年报与 25 年一季报,24 年实现营收 746 亿元(yoy-7.9%), 归母净利 90.4 亿元(yoy-24%),后者低于我们预期(100.4 亿元)约 10%, 主因 4Q 人工与折旧成本超预期;25 年 1Q 实现营收 178 亿元(yoy-2.6%)、 归母净利 25.7 亿元(yoy-15.6%),后者基本符合我们预期(26.06 亿元)。 公司执行高分红政策,24 年度分红比例达到 57.3%。公司拟派发 24 年末期 股息0.14元(含税),连同中期股息0.12924元(含税),折合股息率为3.98%。 公司股息率在低利率环境下仍有吸引力,维持"增持"评级。 24 年回顾:煤炭安监、降雨偏多与进口煤增长拖累货运 24 年大秦线 1Q/2Q/3Q/4Q 运量同比下降 6/8/13/1%。运量下滑,主因:1) 24 年山西煤炭产量因"三超 ...
广汇能源:煤炭产销增长,高股息凸显价值-20250430
Tebon Securities· 2025-04-30 06:55
资格编号:s0120523050002 邮箱:zhaikun@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱:xiejy@tebon.com.cn [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 广汇能源(600256.SH) 2025 年 04 月 30 日 买入(维持) 所属行业:石油石化/炼化及贸易 当前价格(元):5.73 证券分析师 翟堃 市场表现 -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 广汇能源 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -6.83 | -6.83 | -5.91 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -3.25 | -1.96 | -4.81 | | 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《广汇能源( 600256.SH):聚焦能 源主业,具有稀缺"成长"属性》, 2024.9.20 广汇能源(600256.SH):煤炭 产销增长,高股息凸显价值 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 财务报 ...
广汇能源(600256):煤炭产销增长,高股息凸显价值
Tebon Securities· 2025-04-30 06:41
广汇能源(600256.SH) 2025 年 04 月 30 日 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 买入(维持) 所属行业:石油石化/炼化及贸易 当前价格(元):5.73 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号:s0120523050002 邮箱:zhaikun@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱:xiejy@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 广汇能源 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -6.83 | -6.83 | -5.91 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -3.25 | -1.96 | -4.81 | | 资料来源:德邦研究所,聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《广汇能源( 600256.SH):聚焦能 源主业,具有稀缺"成长"属性》, 2024.9.20 广汇能源(600256.SH):煤炭 产销增长,高股息凸显价值 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 事件: ...
大秦铁路一季度净利润下滑超15% 预计全年营收有望实现正增长
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao· 2025-04-30 04:32
Core Viewpoint - Daqin Railway reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025 and the full year 2024, indicating a challenging operating environment due to reduced coal transport volumes and increased costs [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Daqin Railway achieved operating revenue of 17.801 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.56%, and a net profit of 2.563 billion yuan, down 15.76% [1]. - For the full year 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 74.627 billion yuan, a decline of 7.89%, and a net profit of 9.036 billion yuan, down 24.44% [1]. Coal Transport Dynamics - Coal transport remains the primary revenue source, accounting for 72.88% of the company's main business income in 2024 [2]. - The total coal transport volume in 2024 was 58.907 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, influenced by upstream supply constraints and environmental regulations [2][5]. - The overall coal supply-demand situation is loose, with domestic coal prices declining significantly, impacting the company's revenue from coal transport [3][4]. Market Conditions - The domestic coal market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with the CCTD reference price for 5500 kcal thermal coal at 658 yuan per ton, down 20.91% year-on-year [3]. - The company faces challenges from high coal inventories, low prices, and increased competition from imported coal, which is affecting its operational performance [5][6]. Future Outlook - Daqin Railway aims for a slight increase in revenue and transport volumes in 2025, projecting operating revenue of 78 billion yuan and a cargo transport volume of 710 million tons [6]. - The company anticipates challenges in maintaining coal transport volumes due to external factors such as stricter regulations and shifts towards green energy [5][6].