首席点 评 ： 迸发前的平静 中办、国办：关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点深化改革创新扩大开放的意见。《意见》提到，推进金 融、技术、数据等赋能实体经济高质量发展。人民日报头版任正非访谈：国家越开放，会促使我们更加 进步。美商务部长称中美谈判 " 进展顺利 " 。美总统特朗普：洛杉矶骚乱事件是 " 外国入侵 " 。美国财 长贝森特被视作下一任美联储主席的人选之一。此后，美国白宫驳斥媒体关于贝森特可能会是下一任美 联储主席潜在人选的报道。美国 " 稳定币法案 " 本周三程序性投票，为快速立法铺路。 " 稳定币法案 " 若通过，将为美元挂钩代币的监管框架奠定基石。 重点品种： 贵金属、股指、原油 贵金属 ：金银走势分化，黄金延续震荡，白银连续走强。中美高级官员在伦敦展开新一轮贸易谈判， 市场期待相关进展。美国 5 月非农就业新增 13.9 万，超市场预期 13 万，失业率稳定在 4.2% ，工资增 长超出预期，短期降息预期降温，黄金一度回落，而白银在金银比价高位、行情突破走高、经济数据好 于预期的带动下继续走强，金银比价呈现修复。此前美国总统特朗普将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关 税从 25% 提高至 50% ，市场担 ...

黄金周二（6月10日）早盘弱势下跌，在下探3302/3301附近后止跌转涨，午后加速上涨，欧盘以及美盘初保持震荡上涨，最高上涨至3349附近后受阻下跌， 尾盘最低跌至3319附近，日线收出一根十字阴线。 一、基本面 1、地缘政治与经济不确定性 俄乌冲突加剧：俄军对乌军事设施集群打击，乌克兰无人机袭击致俄机场关闭，地区安全局势紧张推升黄金避险买需。 全球经济风险：世界银行警告贸易壁垒和关税上调可能导致全球贸易停滞，美国实际关税税率升至近百年最高，黄金作为保值资产吸引力增强。 1、日线级别：黄金昨天早盘时段先下探后回升，随后进入慢涨阶段，但晚间冲高后又回落，最终日线收出十字阴线。这一形态表明短期行情陷入震荡，多 空双方在当前价位附近展开激烈争夺。 2、中美贸易谈判 谈判进展成为金价回调主因：市场预期谈判若达成协议，将缓解贸易紧张局势、提振全球经济，减少对避险资产的需求。 3、今日重点关注 美国CPI数据：市场预计5月核心CPI同比或升至2.9%，高盛预测年底核心CPI可能因特朗普关税政策攀升至3.5%。通胀回升可能削弱美联储降息预期，利空 黄金。 美联储政策预期：期货市场预计9月美联储降息概率约60%，但降息幅度 ...

Group 1 - US stock market experienced a third consecutive day of gains, with the S&P 500 index reaching a new high not seen in at least three months, driven by optimism surrounding international trade negotiations [1] - Tesla led the technology sector's rise, with its stock increasing by over 5%, while Intel saw its largest single-day gain since April 9, rising nearly 8% [1] - The World Bank downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4 percentage points to 2.3%, citing higher tariffs and policy uncertainties as significant obstacles to the global economy [5] Group 2 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw mixed performance, with NIO rising over 5% and iQIYI and New Oriental both increasing by more than 2%, while Tencent Music fell by nearly 1% [2] - Circle, a stablecoin company, experienced a drop of over 8%, reversing some of its recent gains after a cumulative increase of over 270% in the previous three trading days [3] - McDonald's faced its seventh consecutive day of decline, marking the longest losing streak since 2013, while 10 out of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 index saw gains, with the energy sector performing the best [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant adjustment, with all three major indices declining collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.46% to 3335.75 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.97% to 10504.33 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.15% to 2103.70 points. Over 4000 stocks declined, with less than 500 stocks rising, indicating a pessimistic market sentiment [1][2]. Reasons for Decline - External factors impacting the market include changes in the Federal Reserve's policy expectations, which have cooled interest rate cut anticipations, leading to pressure on global risk assets and foreign capital outflow from A-shares. Additionally, geopolitical tensions have heightened risk aversion, prompting some funds to withdraw from the stock market [3]. - Internal economic data has shown weakness, with recent PMI, consumption, and industrial value-added data falling short of expectations, raising concerns about the strength of economic recovery. Certain sectors, such as real estate and consumer electronics, have reported declining performance, negatively affecting related sectors [3]. - There is pressure on the funding side, with northbound capital experiencing a net outflow exceeding a specified amount, and margin trading balances declining, indicating reduced activity of leveraged funds [3]. Sector Performance - Leading sectors that faced declines include: - New Energy: Major stocks like CATL and LONGi Green Energy fell due to rumors of industry overcapacity. - Consumer Electronics: Stocks within the Apple supply chain collectively retreated. - Brokerage: The brokerage sector faced pressure due to low market trading activity [5]. - Defensive sectors, such as agriculture and pharmaceuticals, remained relatively stable, while high-dividend assets like banks and public utilities attracted risk-averse funds [5]. Investment Strategies - Companies suggest that the market may continue to experience fluctuations in the short term, advising investors to focus on policy catalysts and firms with strong earnings certainty. It is recommended to control positions to avoid blind bottom-fishing and to wait for market stabilization signals [4][5]. - Attention should be given to policy developments, such as increased growth stabilization measures or favorable capital market reforms, and to prioritize defensive sectors like consumer goods and pharmaceuticals that are undervalued [5].

港股方面，近期新消费、创新药等板块带动港股风险偏好整体偏强，短期趋势或延续；从中期来看， AH股溢价当前处于较低位置，美债利率维持高位也使得港股性价比不高，这可能给港股带来中期的调 整压力。 原油方面，关税缓和或短期提振原油情绪，但全球原油需求仍可能受关税拖累，OPEC+充足闲置产能 加大供给上行风险，油价或震荡偏弱。 黄金方面，关税带来的经济政策不确定性，以及美元信用遭质疑让金价中长期利好趋势有望保持，短期 金价波动难免。 (责任编辑：叶景) 海外方面，美国5月就业数据出现一定分化，新增非农整体超预期，ADP偏弱，美国就业情况短期没有 急剧恶化的风险，但仍有所放缓。薪资环比增速出现大幅反弹，考虑到基数效应以及对等关税冲击，美 国通胀将在Q2末~Q3反弹，美联储预计按兵不动维持观望状态，市场预期首次降息在9月。 国内方面，中美关税缓和后，5月制造业PMI受出口需求拉动有所回暖，生产指数和新订单、新出口订 单指数均有所回升，印证了出口链景气度的修复；购进价格和出厂价格均有所下降，反映了需求不足和 国际油价下跌的影响。关税政策的中期前景仍有较大不确定性，预计财政政策继续发力。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周央行超预 ...

6月10日亚洲时段，现货黄金延续上周五跌势，伦敦金现价围绕3307美元/盎司震荡，早盘最低触及3301.85美元/盎司，较 前一交易日下跌0.52%。美元指数同步走强，亚盘最高触及99.3050，当前报99.2390，较周一收盘价上涨0.27%。 | 美元指数 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | S FX DINIW √ √ 外汇 ■ Level1基础行情 | | | | ② 已添加 | | 99.239000 +0.2690 +0.2700% | | | | | | 交易中 06-10 11:02 北京时间 | | | | | | 行情 | | | | | | 今开 98.9730 | 最高 | 99.3050 | 买入价 | 99.2320 | | 昨收 98.9700 | 最低 | 98.8940 | 卖出价 | 99.2450 | | - 现货黄金 XAUUSD | | | | | | 3308.26 -17.35 (-0.52%) | | | | | | on 1000 color. 2000 2000 0000 AUT | | | | | | 昨 ...

周二(6月10日)亚市盘中，现货黄金走势偏弱运行，截至发稿报3306.09美元/盎司，跌幅0.56%，今日金价开盘于3327.38美元/盎司，最 高上探3327.59美元/盎司，最低触及3301.54美元/盎司。 四小时图，上周金价走高两次在3397附近受阻走跌，且非农数据后金价下行到趋势线位置收盘，当前金价走势偏低位震荡，形成对四 小时均线向下突破走势，继续加剧四小时均线向下交叉排列，维持四小级别偏空指引参考，走势上暂时维持在低位的窄幅震荡，在前 期的支撑带附近给到反弹的力度和延续度都不算太大，要注意可能出现的震荡修复完成走出二次下跌。小时级别目前K线也是承压短 周期均线维持偏弱运行走势，关注下短线的调整修复情况。今天金价还有继续下跌的空间和需求。 黄金价格现在处于趋势线上交投，趋势线昨日上破后这是首次触及，今日操作思路是依靠此位置去看反弹后再看金价向下去试探这个 趋势线的支撑情况。现在盘面上看，3310是上一波反弹的起点，可以作为一个进场点位去下看，其次是3321这里是下行途中的第一次 反弹起点，可以作为一个短期的压制位参考；下方支撑初步参考昨日低点3293附近，有效跌破后可以下看周评目标3273附近。具 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have seen a slight increase, currently trading around $3317.62 per ounce, supported by safe-haven buying due to unrest in Los Angeles [1] - Last week, gold prices experienced volatility, initially rising nearly 3% to around $3380, before fluctuating due to poor U.S. economic data and optimistic international trade news [1] - The U.S. dollar rose by 0.47% to 99.20, influenced by better-than-expected employment growth in May, which may delay potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 2 - The technical outlook for gold shows it is trading within a range, with current prices near $3300, indicating market indecision [4] - Key resistance and support levels for gold are identified at $3330 and $3285 respectively, with potential movements towards $3355 or $3250 depending on market dynamics [4] - The interplay between expectations of the Federal Reserve's actions and global trade uncertainties is crucial for gold price movements [4]

Group 1 - The market showed a positive trend last week, with major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index leading the gains [2] - Economic recovery is expected to continue in the second quarter, supported by a gradual improvement in exports following tariff reductions [3] - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% in May, indicating a slight recovery in production and demand [3] Group 2 - Domestic demand is anticipated to become the core driver of economic growth in the second half of the year, especially as real estate sales show signs of weakness [4] - Government bond issuance has accelerated, with net financing reaching 6.4 trillion yuan from January to May, exceeding the same period last year by 3.7 trillion yuan [4] - The U.S. job market remains resilient, with May non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, surpassing expectations [5] Group 3 - The employment data in the U.S. alleviates recession concerns and supports the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates [5] - The overall economic environment is stabilizing, with limited downside risks due to the gradual recovery and support from policies [7] - Short-term market sentiment may be positively influenced by upcoming discussions between U.S. and Chinese leaders [7]

美国劳工统计局公布的五月非农就业报告显示，尽管市场对经济放缓的预期较为强烈，但实际结果出乎意料，非农就业人口增幅虽有所放缓，但仍高于市场 预期。根据调整后的数据，五月美国非农就业人口增加了十三点九万人，创下自二月以来的新低，尽管如此，这一增幅仍高于市场预期的十三万人。 与此同时，失业率保持在百分之四点二的水平，连续三个月未发生变化，这也消除了市场对劳动力市场大幅放缓的担忧。尽管新增就业的增幅低于前几个月 的表现，但整体失业率的稳定无疑为经济前景注入了一丝乐观的信号。 然而，值得注意的是，虽然五月的就业增长好于预期，但此前两个月的就业数据被 大幅下修，合计修正幅度达到九点五万人。这意味着，虽然五月的表现稍显强劲，但前两个月的调整削弱了这一点。 薪资增长方面，五月的平均时薪环比 上升百分之零点四，高于预期的百分之零点三和前值的零点二。同比增幅则为百分之三点九，超出了百分之三点七的预期。这一数据虽未引发过度担忧，但 工资的温和上升仍为美联储未来政策决策提供了参考依据。分析人士指出，尽管薪资增速上升，但当前水平尚不足以促使美联储立刻采取行动干预。 行业方面，美国医疗领域继续引领就业增长，新增就业岗位达到六点二万个，表 ...