Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff measures announced by President Trump may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, as they could reignite inflation concerns [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee indicated that the new tariffs, effective August 1, which impose a 35% tariff on certain Canadian imports and a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, could complicate the inflation outlook [1] - The previous pause on high tariffs had alleviated market concerns about rising prices, paving the way for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Position - Goolsbee expressed that the latest tariffs make it more challenging to support the interest rate cuts that Trump advocates for, suggesting a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve until the situation becomes clearer [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the extent of the impact these tariffs will have on the economy, with Goolsbee hoping that businesses do not feel they are back in the same situation as in early April [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicated that new tariff threats may delay interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The potential for new tariffs introduces uncertainty in economic conditions, which could impact the timing of monetary policy adjustments [1] - Goolsbee's comments suggest that external factors, such as trade policies, are influencing the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [1]

Market Overview - US stock market opened lower on July 11, but later showed signs of recovery with major indices narrowing their losses [1] - Gold and Bitcoin prices surged, with gold rising over 1% to exceed $3360 per ounce and silver increasing by more than 3% [3] Cryptocurrency Sector - Cryptocurrency stocks saw significant gains, with Bit Origin rising over 40% [2] - Bitcoin increased by more than 6.5%, despite nearly 280,000 liquidations in the past 24 hours [2] Electric Vehicle Industry - NIO's stock surged over 7% following the announcement of its new model, the Ladao L90, with a starting price of 279,900 yuan for purchase and 193,900 yuan for battery rental [3] - The Ladao L90 is set to officially launch at the end of July, with deliveries starting on August 1 [3] Trade Policy and Economic Outlook - President Trump announced plans to impose a 15% or 20% tariff on nearly all remaining trade partners, raising concerns in the market [4][5] - The Royal Bank of Canada has pushed back its forecast for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts from September to December, citing the need for more time to assess inflation and labor market conditions [5]

比特币创新高 概念股领涨 随着下周多部加密货币相关法律在美国国会进入审议环节，加密货币再次点燃投资者热情。比特币近两个交易日连续上涨，并在今日盘中创下了11.8万美元 的历史新高。 下周开始，加密货币三大法案——《天才法案》（《GENIUS法案》）、《明确性法案》（《CLARITY法案》）和《反央行数字货币监控国家法案》将在美国 众议院同步进入审议阶段。这一立法"组合拳"标志着美国加密监管进入关键转折期。三大法案同步审议的特殊性在于其系统性：《天才法案》试图将稳定币纳 入美元储备体系，《反央行数字货币监控国家法案》剑指隐私货币与央行数字货币，《明确性法案》则聚焦监管权划分。这种"三位一体"的立法设计，既反映 了共和党推动加密行业合规化的决心，也暴露出两党在监管逻辑上的根本分歧。若立法落地，美国将成为首个为稳定币、隐私币和监管框架同步立法的国 家，其影响将远超国界，成为全球加密监管的标杆。 分析认为，三大法案将极大提升加密货币行业长期以来所要求的监管透明度。 加密货币交易所Bitfinex的衍生品主管贾格・库纳就表示："我们预计，此前因监管不确定性而持观望态度的资金将重新流入。即便最终通过受阻，立法层面 的参与 ...

加拿大皇家银行将美联储降息时间预测从9月推迟至12月。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Royal Bank of Canada has revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut from September to December, indicating that policymakers require additional time to assess inflation and labor market conditions [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Forecast - The expectation for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts has been pushed back from September to December [1] Economic Conditions - The delay in the interest rate cut is attributed to the need for more evaluation of inflation and labor market status by decision-makers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold continues to rise due to heightened market risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Concerns over President Trump's recent tariff announcements have increased market uncertainty, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Trump's proposals include new tariffs on imports from Canada, Brazil, and copper, which have contributed to the rising demand for gold [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - Market expectations for a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve are supporting investor demand for gold [1] - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting indicate that only a few officials expect no interest rate cuts this year, further bolstering gold's appeal [1]

Group 1 - The Australian National Bank (NAB) analysts indicate that current uncertainties provide stable support for the US dollar, which may continue to perform strongly if the situation persists for several weeks, particularly due to insufficient market digestion of tariff news [1][2] - The US government's proposed comprehensive tariff plan, especially new taxes on imports from Canada and Brazil, has increased market uncertainty, enhancing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The UK experienced an unexpected GDP contraction of 0.1% in May, reflecting significant downside risks to economic growth, which puts further downward pressure on the British pound [2] Group 2 - The Dutch International Group (ING) analysts state that even if a trade agreement between the EU and the US is reached, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro to dollar exchange rate, which is primarily driven by US Federal Reserve monetary policy and economic data [3] - Kenanga economists predict that concerns over US tariffs are expected to pressure the Malaysian ringgit (MYR), with the USD/MYR exchange rate anticipated to fluctuate between 4.25 and 4.28 [1] - Nomura Securities highlights that the US tariff policy may indirectly weaken Singapore's export-dependent economy, with specific industry tariffs potentially causing direct economic impacts [2]

本月美联储议息会议，是否降息已经不再是市场唯一关注的问题，"谁支持、谁反对"反而成了最大看点。 据追风交易台，渣打最新报告指出，美联储7月30日召开的议息会议可能出现罕见的两位理事投反对票，暗示降息进程即将开 始：美联储理事鲍曼和沃勒预计将反对维持利率不变，转而支持降息25个基点，这将是自1993年以来首次出现两位理事在同一次 会议上投出反对票。 这种不同寻常的分歧可能预示着美联储政策立场的重大转变，市场可能会将这两票反对解读为FOMC更鸽派立场的前兆，进一步 作出积极反应。 两位理事明确表达降息立场 两位理事都已表态，倾向支持在7月降息。 据华尔街见闻此前文章，沃勒已明确表示，最早可以在7月降息，他认为FOMC应将关税驱动的价格上涨视为一次性因素。沃勒 不认为劳动力市场强劲到足以维持二轮工资和价格上涨。 对外，市场可能将此视为政策转向的前奏：即使7月不降息，9月或12月也更有可能行动。 渣打认为，市场可能对反对票的出现做出积极反应，预计2025年和2026年将有更多降息，导致美债收益率曲线前端牛市走陡。根 据5月至今的数据，美元与短期利率之间存在正相关关系，短期利率下降可能对美元构成阻力。美股市场过去对增加 ...

Group 1 - The divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials highlights the challenges in decision-making regarding inflation and interest rates, with Daly suggesting a milder impact from tariffs and Musalem emphasizing the delayed effects [1][6] - Daly's confidence stems from companies' ability to manage cost pressures through supply chain negotiations, profit margin compression, and operational efficiency, as evidenced by the increase in inventory turnover rates among U.S. importers [3][6] - The latest data supports Daly's assessment of the U.S. economy, showing a moderate cooling with consumer spending growth slowing but not contracting, a stable labor market, and inflation trending towards the 2% target [6][9] Group 2 - Concerns about the global implications of U.S. trade policy changes are rising, with warnings from industry leaders about potential risks to small businesses and the broader economy [9] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma regarding interest rate adjustments, as market expectations for a rate cut in September have increased significantly, reflecting uncertainty in the economic outlook [9]