换资前言： 面对剧烈波动的市场行情，我们需要的是等待机会，一击而中，而不是在频繁的交易中迷失自己！合理 的把控仓位，利用支撑和阻力位下单，让每一单有理可依，有迹可循。买卖点位不应该是随意进场，请 对自己的资金负责，永远记住一句话，专业的人做专业的事，一切实战只为盈利，合作只为双赢。经常 做错方向和进出场点位把控的不是很好，操作中亏损的朋友，可与晟富一起交流。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周三（7月2日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于3340美元/盎司附近。特朗普减税议案点燃 避险热潮，美联储降息预期再升温 ，黄金市场在2025年7月初迎来了新一轮的上涨热潮，现货黄金价格 周二飙升逾1%，触及6月24日以来的最高水平3357.82美元/盎司，收盘报3338.77美元/盎司，为连续两 个交易日上涨。这一涨势不仅受到美国参议院通过特朗普"大而美"减税与支出议案的推动，还与即将到 来的7月9日贸易关税暂停期限、全球储备货币格局的讨论以及美联储货币政策的最新动向密切相关。日 内将可关注美国6月挑战者企业裁员人数(万人)、美国6月ADP就业人数(万人)等数据，市场预期偏向利 空金价 ...

据新华社报道， 当地时间7月1日，美国国会参议院以51票赞成、50票反对的表决结果通过"大而美"税 收与支出法案 。对经济状况更为敏感的道指收涨，在前一日创下新高的纳指、标普500指数走低。 金价油价反弹 当地时间7月1日，美股科技股遭到抛售，特斯拉股价盘中重挫逾7%，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真 实社交"上发帖，回应美国企业家马斯克对其力推的"大而美"减税及支出法案的抨击。 特斯拉盘中暴跌逾7% 当地时间7月1日，美股迎来下半年首个交易日，三大指数表现分化。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道指 涨0.91%，纳指跌0.82%，标普500指数跌0.11%。 随着美国参议院通过"大而美"税收与支出法案，对经济较为敏感的道指走高，材料板块以及小盘股表现 亮眼；被视为经济晴雨表的道琼斯运输业平均指数（DJT）飙升2.85%，创下自5月12日以来的最大单日 涨幅。 在近期积累了一定涨幅后，美股科技股遭到抛售。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，万得美国科技七巨头指 数下跌1.18%，英伟达、Meta跌逾2%，微软跌逾1%，谷歌母公司Alphabet微跌；苹果涨1.29%、亚马逊 涨0.49%。 特斯拉盘中一度暴跌逾7%，收跌5 ...

一、基本面 制造业低迷：6月制造业PMI显示制造业依然低迷，关税政策的不确定性导致供应链瓶颈，工厂等待原材料时间延长，企业对长期采购决策持谨慎态度。 黄金周二（7月2日）早盘开盘后就一路慢涨，欧盘延续上涨，到美盘初最高上涨至3358附近，美盘震荡下探3337/3336附近，日线收出一根阳线。 1、特朗普减税议案通过：7月1日，美国参议院通过特朗普"大而美"减税与支出议案，该议案预计将在未来十年内导致财政赤字增加3万亿美元。这会刺激通 胀压力，加重美国债务负担，而黄金作为传统避险资产，在这种情况下吸引了更多投资者关注，推动价格上涨。 2、贸易政策不确定性：美国财政部长贝森特警告称，随着7月9日贸易关税暂停期限临近，各国可能面临大幅提高的关税税率。特朗普对日本等国可能征收 更高关税的表态，加剧了市场对全球贸易环境的紧张情绪，进一步推动金价上涨。 3、美国经济数据复杂： 职位空缺增加：美国5月职位空缺意外增加37.4万个，达到776.9万个，超出市场预期。 支撑位上，关注3315-3310区域支撑，这里是5日均线和60日均线目前位置，金价转强站上均线上方，回落关注均线支撑情况。 劳动力市场动能减弱：5月裁员人数减少 ...

点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 我在前文《》谈及黄金的日线走势的时候，提到了重要的均线。当然啦，如果你们认真看留言板的话，实际上应该知道是哪一天，看图(绿色线)—— 6月27日金价收盘在3273美元/盎司，已经形成了破位。不过根据《四维共振》基础篇的突破三原则，即突破在外，保持在外，充分回吐，还需要一次回抽 确认。 汇丰银行最新的一份报告剖析黄金的走势逻辑，并指出，黄金的上涨动能或已接近极限。 那么，之所以说这条均线重要，是因为年内的这一波黄金上攻行情，实际上是经历了去年10月底到今年1月中旬的一波收敛整理。均线系统在收敛之后， 再次扩散，形成了均线系统的看多做多走势。 大家可以仔细日线图，从今年1月至今，价格从未有效击穿过这根均线。如今是年内首次失而复得，变相的也在意味着有部分之前做多的资金在出逃。 或者我这么直白的跟你讲， 这次是假破位，那么下次呢？ 当然，从日线的区间来看，目前整体震荡的态势倒没有发生变化。 汇丰在最新报告中写道，虽然地缘政治风险、央行购金需求和美元走弱等因素将继续支撑金价在历史高位运行，但随着实物需求减弱、供应增加、美联储 降息预期减弱等因素的影响，预计2025年下半年金价 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：美元怎么了？ 国内商品方面，黑色系与地产后周期品种承压，情绪偏弱。黑色系中，焦煤和焦炭价格跌幅较大，分别下 跌 3.32%和 2.46%，铁矿石、螺纹钢分别下跌 1.32%、0.20%，仅热轧卷板录得 0.06%的小涨。后地产链的玻璃同 样表现较弱，大幅下跌 3.73%。此外，光伏产业链上游的工业硅与多晶硅价格也出现明显回调，分别下跌 4.31% 和 2.39%。 复盘与思考: 7 月 1 日，股债双牛。股市中季末走弱的几个板块均迎来反弹，债市收益率在季初宽松的底色下重回下行。 除了股债以外，黄金与美元是另一条重要主线，美元指数经历"九连跌"后来到 96.5 附近，黄金价格顺势反 弹，各交易所金价涨幅均在 1.40%以上。 美元到底发生了什么？2025 上半年，美元指数累积跌幅达到 10.8%，创出最近 52 年（1973 以来）上半年 最糟糕表现。今日美元指数继续下跌 0.3%。近期美元指数疲软，可能受到几个因素影响： 一是降息预期升温，CME FedWatch 显示，美联储 9 ...

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Global stock market risk appetite has steadily increased, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching record closing highs [1] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6204.95 points, up 25% from its low on April 9, while the Nasdaq rose over 34% from its low [5] - The Korean Composite Index surged over 28%, leading global stock markets, while the German DAX index saw a cumulative increase of 20% [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices rose significantly, with a 25.59% increase in the first half of the year, following a 19% rise in Q1 and a 6% increase in Q2 [1][8] - Platinum experienced a notable "catch-up" rally, with a cumulative increase of 48% in the first half of the year, while silver futures rose by 32.61% [1] - The COMEX gold futures saw a 5.67% increase in Q2, while platinum prices surged approximately 36.14% in the same period [8] Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index fell over 10% in the first half of the year, marking the largest decline since 1973, while non-US currencies strengthened [1][5] - The euro appreciated by 13.8% against the dollar, and both the yen and pound rose by 8% [1] Group 4: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices experienced wide fluctuations, with WTI crude oil reaching a high of nearly $80 per barrel and a low of around $55 [10] - OPEC+ has begun increasing production, with plans to add approximately 1.37 million barrels per day by July [11] - Analysts predict that oil prices may have reached their peak for the year, with expectations of a downward trend influenced by OPEC+ production increases [11]

金十数据7月1日讯，瑞郎兑美元升至逾10年高位，因美国政策的不确定性令美元承压，并促使投资者转 向避险资产。分析师称，瑞郎和欧元是投资者寻求美元替代品的主要受益者。荷兰国际银行分析师 Chris Turner在一份报告中表示，瑞郎在瑞士国债收益率较低的情况下仍大涨，暗示"美元的流动性替代 品问题正在发挥作用。"他表示，对美联储可能比此前预期更早降息的预期日益增强，这令美元承压。 政策不确定性重创美元 瑞郎触及10年高点 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have seen a significant pullback after reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, with geopolitical factors and central bank purchases continuing to support gold, but prices may be nearing a peak due to weakening physical demand, increased supply, and a slower-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][6][12]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Total gold supply is projected to increase from 4,950 tonnes in 2023 to 5,190 tonnes in 2025, driven by mine production and old gold scrap recovery [2]. - Jewelry demand, which constitutes about half of global gold consumption, is expected to decline significantly, with a 21% year-on-year drop in Q1 2025 to 380.3 tonnes [21]. - Investment demand remains strong, with gold ETFs seeing a net increase of 7.94 million ounces in 2023, reaching 90.79 million ounces [14]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical risks have historically supported gold prices, but the market's response may have reached saturation, as evidenced by the failure to surpass the April high following tensions with Iran [6]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated rate cuts are expected to be less aggressive than previously thought, which could negatively impact gold prices [12]. - Global trade growth is projected to slow, with only a 1.8% increase expected in 2025, which typically supports gold prices [9]. Group 3: Central Bank Purchases and Future Projections - Central bank demand for gold remains robust, with purchases expected to total 955 tonnes in 2025, although this is lower than previous years [28]. - HSBC has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 to $3,215 per ounce, with a trading range of $3,100 to $3,600 per ounce [2]. - The forecast for gold prices in 2026 is set at $3,125 per ounce, indicating a potential decline in price momentum [2].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' flow analysis team indicates that the S&P 500 index is expected to continue its upward trend this month due to four main factors: improving liquidity, declining market volatility, easing recession fears, and seasonal benefits, although this upward momentum is anticipated to weaken in August [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has the potential to extend its 25% increase since the April low, with the last monthly decline occurring in July 2014 [1] - Historically, July is one of the strongest months for the S&P 500, with an average return of 1.67% since 1928, and the first two weeks of July are typically the best-performing period of the year [1] Group 2: Supporting Factors - In addition to seasonal factors, the current rally is supported by declining volatility, which improves capital flows and market sentiment, with an estimated $80 billion expected to flow into global equity markets over the next month [4] - The liquidity environment remains favorable, with effective risk transfer capabilities providing a healthier trading environment [4] - Investor sentiment on Wall Street has improved significantly, with reduced tensions in the Middle East and progress on several trade agreements under the Trump administration [4] Group 3: Market Concerns - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns regarding concentrated leadership in certain sectors, the performance of low-quality stocks, and a significant increase in bullish positions [5] - Important economic indicators, including U.S. employment data, will be released this week, which could impact market sentiment [5] - Citigroup's stock strategists express caution, noting that the current rally has led to substantial profits for long positions, particularly in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indices, with average holding returns around 5%, raising the risk of profit-taking potentially limiting further upside [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the tracking of U.S. labor data and the implications for Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations, indicating a potential delay in such actions [1] - There is speculation about gold prices potentially reaching 3350, reflecting market reactions to economic indicators and monetary policy [1]