点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 光大研究一周热榜，精选"光溯" 小程序本周阅读量前十研报。 No.1 龄听光的声音/洞悉光的观察/了解光的态度 望向新高－－2025年中期策略 张宇生,王国兴,张卓然,郭磊 策略月报 整体来看，去年9月以来的市场行情已从政策驱动逐步转向基本 面与流动性驱动，未来市场行情演绎的节奏或可参照2019年。 展望下半年，市场仍存在一些预期差，如短期基本面改善的持 续性、资金持续流入及新兴产业发展带来的机遇等。因此我们 认为，下半年市场将开启下一阶段上涨行情，并有望突破2024 年下半年的阶段性高点。 长按识别小程序码进入 光大证券小程序 阅读全文 洞悉光的观察 / 聆听光的声音 / 了解光的态度 725W. No.2 龄正光的皇景烟落米的碰蓉 ...

Core Concepts - Trend following is not blind speculation; it emphasizes acting in accordance with market trends and avoiding counter-trend operations [1] - Price reflects all fundamentals, sentiment, and policies, ultimately manifesting in price trends [2] - Cut losses quickly and let profits run; quickly stop losses on losing trades while holding profitable trades until the trend ends [3] - Trends have inertia; once established, they are more likely to continue than to reverse [4] - Do not predict; instead, react to market signals and follow trends [5] Trend Identification - Moving Average System: A bullish signal occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average (e.g., 5-day > 20-day) [6] - Channel Breakout: Enter long when price breaks above the N-day high and short when it breaks below the N-day low [6] - Momentum Indicators: An expanding MACD histogram indicates trend acceleration [6] - Trend Structure: Higher highs and higher lows indicate an uptrend, while lower highs and lower lows indicate a downtrend [6] - Volatility Confirmation: A breakout of the Average True Range (ATR) from recent averages signals trend initiation [6] Strategy Execution - Entry Rules: Enter trades on price breakouts with increased volume or on pullbacks to moving averages [7] - Position Sizing: Limit single trade risk to 1% of total capital [7] - Stop Loss Settings: Use volatility-based stops (±2 times ATR) or structural stops based on previous highs/lows [7] - Profit Taking Logic: Implement trailing stops based on a percentage retracement from the highest price [7] - Multi-Market Adaptation: Different strategies for various asset classes, such as focusing on moving averages for stock index futures and momentum indicators for cryptocurrencies [7] Risk Management - Diversification: Hold 5-10 non-correlated trend positions simultaneously [8] - Leverage Control: Limit futures leverage to 5 times and cryptocurrency leverage to 3 times [8] - Drawdown Triggers: Enforce a 50% reduction in positions if account drawdown reaches 15% [8] - Correlation Monitoring: Reduce positions if the correlation coefficient among holdings exceeds 0.7 [8] Cognitive Misconceptions - Trend following is not equivalent to long-term holding; exit immediately when a trend ends [9] - Holding periods typically range from days to months, not high-frequency trading [9] - Avoid over-optimization, which can lead to failure in real trading [9] - Emotional interference can lead to premature exits; adhere to trailing stops [9] Practical Cases - Oil Price Crash 2020: Trend signals indicated a short position after breaking the 200-day moving average [10] - Nvidia AI Surge 2024: Trend initiation was confirmed by a weekly MACD crossover [10] - Federal Reserve Rate Hikes: The dollar index rose 15% during the 2022 rate hike cycle, validating breakout strategies [10] - Bitcoin Halving Trends: Historical data shows significant price increases following halving events [10]

来源：喜娜AI 财政部加强险资长周期考核，助力资本市场稳定发展 7月11日，财政部发布通知，加强国有商业保险公司长周期考核，将净资产收益率和资本保值增值率考 核调整为"当年度+3年周期+5年周期"结合。此举旨在引导保险资金长期稳健投资，降低短期波动影 响，提升权益投资积极性，发挥保险资金"压舱石"作用。保险资金来源稳定、偿付周期长，长周期考核 机制建立后，有望加大A股投资比例，稳定资本市场，优化投资生态。 详情>> 外卖补贴大战周末重启，行业竞争或常态化 "休整"一周后，7月12日外卖补贴大战再度开启，淘宝闪购和美团外卖话题冲上热搜。美团送出线下咖 啡茶饮通兑券，淘宝闪购发放188元红包。此前上周末外卖大战订单量爆发，港股相关茶饮股上涨。但 商家担心补贴是"过山车"式，平台补贴或难持续，这场"闪电战"可能演变成周度、月度常态化交锋。 详情>> 稀土价格持续上调，相关企业业绩预增 7月10日晚间，北方稀土、包钢股份拟上调2025年第三季度稀土精矿关联交易价格。近一年来，稀土精 矿交易价格持续上调，北方稀土业绩大幅预增，7月11日强势涨停，总市值逼近1000亿元。国投证券认 为稀土涨价可期，需求端新能源车等需求高 ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【玉米、生猪、鸡蛋期货行情分析及策略建议】玉米方面，长线呈区间运行，中线可低多，短期拍卖持 续，价格向下寻支撑。短期，进口玉米拍卖成交率降、溢价缩窄，现货看涨预期弱，整体弱稳。中期， 进口谷物和替代减量，供给宽松或趋紧，价格重心偏强，但价差收窄、小麦替代增，上方空间不宜乐 观。长期，政策粮投放和小麦替代限制价格，维持进口替代和种植成本定价，关注政策导向。策略上， 2509合约支撑2300 - 2320，支撑有效可波段做多。 生猪方面，长线高空，中线区间，短线反弹试探压 力。短期，支撑压力并存，猪价震荡。中期，2 - 5月新生仔猪增加、出栏体重降幅有限，下半年供给或 增，猪价上涨难。长期，能繁母猪存栏高、生产效率升，全年产能将兑现。策略上，2509合约第一压力 14400 - 14600，第二压力14800 - 15000；2511合约关注13800压力。 鸡蛋方面，蛋价或确认阶段性底 部，期货交易基差逻辑。短期，供给稳定，下跌空间有限，或确认底部。中期，集中淘汰和中秋旺季或 使8 - 9月现货反弹，高点取决于淘鸡节奏。长期，三季度养殖利润转正，四季度 ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【玉米、生猪、鸡蛋期货行情分析及策略建议】玉米期货方面，长线呈区间运行，中线适合低多思路。 短期进口玉米拍卖持续，成交率降低、溢价幅度缩小，现货市场看涨预期减弱，整体弱稳。中期进口谷 物缩量和替代减量，国内供给宽松格局或趋紧，价格重心偏强，但玉米价差收窄、小麦替代增加，上方 空间不宜乐观。长期政策粮源投放和小麦替代限制价格，维持进口替代和种植成本定价逻辑，关注政策 导向。策略上，2509合约支撑关注2300 - 2320，有效可波段做多。生猪期货，长线宜高空，中线呈区间 运行，短线反弹试探压力。短期猪价震荡，中期2 - 5月新生仔猪增加，出栏体重降幅有限，供给增量预 期仍在，上涨难。长期能繁母猪存栏高于正常，生产效率提升，全年产能将持续兑现。策略上，2509合 约第一压力14400 - 14600，第二压力14800 - 15000；2511合约关注13800压力。鸡蛋期货，蛋价或确认 阶段性底部，按基差逻辑交易。短期供给稳定，下跌空间有限。中期集中淘汰和中秋旺季或使8 - 9月现 货反弹，高点取决于淘鸡节奏。长期若三季度养殖利润转正，四季度供给压力 ...

中经记者 罗辑 北京报道 截至7月11日晚间，9家上市券商发布2025年上半年业绩预告，全员实现净利润大幅增长。随着上半年A 股活跃度回升，券商业绩也水涨船高。多位券商分析师认为，券商板块作为"牛市旗手"，在当前A股重 回活跃的背景下，业绩提升、预期加码，板块有望强势领涨。 业绩暴涨 具体来看，9家首批披露业绩预告的上市券商全员实现业绩预增。9家券商整体净利润或超90亿元，业绩 平均增幅在3倍左右。不过，不同券商之间净利润规模和增长幅度差异较大。 2025年中报券商业绩预告 证券简称 业绩预告摘要 红塔证券 净利润约65137.0800万—69629.3000万元,增长45%—55% 国信证券 净利润约36334.1400万—40424.7400万元,增长51%—68% 华林证券 净利润约27000万—35000万元,变动幅度为118.98%—183.86% 国盛金控 净利润约478000万—553000万元,变动幅度为52%—76% 华西证券 净利润约44500.00万—57500.00万元,变动幅度为1025.19%—1353.90% 哈投股份 净利润约38003.8200万元,增长约233.10% 财达 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown significant upward movement, with over 120 funds being liquidated and some funds achieving returns exceeding 88% as of June 30, 2025 [1] - The Huashang Runfeng Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund C (007509) has ranked first among its peers over the past three and five years, demonstrating strong performance under the management of fund manager Hu Zhongyuan since March 2019 [1][4] - Hu Zhongyuan has a solid financial background and 11 years of experience in the securities industry, focusing on risk-return ratios in his investment philosophy [2][5] Group 2 - Hu Zhongyuan believes that the current market has significant potential, with structural trends expected to dominate in the second half of the year, supported by positive signals from multiple departments to stabilize the stock market [3] - The current liquidity in the market and the declining value of real estate assets make equity assets more attractive for wealth management among residents [3] - Emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and solid-state batteries are expected to provide more structural investment opportunities in the A-share market [3] Group 3 - The Huashang Runfeng Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund A has also performed well, ranking 2nd and 3rd in its category over the past three and five years, respectively [4] - The fund's performance from 2019 to 2024 shows a net value growth rate of 16.03%, 59.02%, 8.69%, 3.05%, 0.74%, and 32.90%, compared to its benchmark growth rates [4][5] - The fund has undergone changes in management, with Hu Zhongyuan taking over in March 2019 and continuing to manage the fund to date [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that gold prices are on the rise, with bullish sentiment targeting a price level of 3400 [1] - The article suggests that market participants should consider their strategies for the upcoming week in light of the ongoing upward trend in gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic scrap steel prices are fluctuating, with a tightening market and cautious procurement by steel enterprises, leading to a short-term stable and volatile outlook for the scrap steel market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Heavy scrap steel prices increased by 5 CNY/ton across major steel enterprises compared to the previous week [1]. - In the Central China region, heavy scrap steel prices are showing a slight upward trend, with prices reaching 2500 CNY/ton at Ansteel and 2590 CNY/ton at Wugang, an increase of 20 CNY/ton [2]. - In the North China region, heavy scrap steel prices have rebounded slightly, with prices at 2520 CNY/ton at Shougang Qian'an, an increase of 20 CNY/ton [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The overall market for scrap steel is tight, influenced by high temperatures and rainy weather affecting collection, processing, and transportation, leading to reduced output and tightening social inventory [1]. - In the South China region, scrap steel consumption has significantly decreased due to production cuts in long-process steel enterprises and increased shutdowns in electric arc furnace steel enterprises [2]. - The Northwest region's scrap steel prices are stable, with weak market transactions and average delivery conditions expected to lead to a consolidation phase [3]. Group 3: Regional Insights - In East China, scrap steel prices remain stable, with low consumption from steel enterprises and average transaction conditions [1]. - The Southwest region shows mixed price trends, with some increases and decreases based on individual processing site conditions [2]. - The Northeast region's scrap steel prices are stable, with cautious market sentiment and average procurement enthusiasm from steel enterprises [3].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 3550 points on July 11, 2023, marking a 1.09% increase for the week [1][5] - The total market turnover on July 11 was 1.74 trillion yuan, the highest in over three months, with a significant increase of 221.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2][4] - The overall market saw 2960 stocks rise, with 68 hitting the daily limit up, while 2206 stocks declined [2] Sector Performance - Non-bank financials, computers, and steel sectors led the market gains, with respective increases of 2.02%, 1.93%, and 1.93% [2] - The real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors were the top performers for the week, with gains of 6.12%, 4.41%, and 3.96% respectively [3][5] - The rare earth permanent magnet sector saw significant activity, with companies like Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel hitting the daily limit up following positive earnings forecasts [3] Fund Flow and Investor Sentiment - Despite the market rebound, there was a cautious sentiment among investors, with a net outflow of over 14 billion yuan from the main funds on July 11 [4] - The computer, non-bank financial, and non-ferrous metal sectors saw the largest net inflows, amounting to 36.91 billion yuan, 32.78 billion yuan, and 7.22 billion yuan respectively [4] - The overall market capitalization of A-shares reached 102.11 trillion yuan, setting a new historical high [4] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market is likely to continue its upward trend, driven by steady volume release and potential inflow of new capital [5][6] - There is an expectation of a new phase of market growth in the second half of the year, with a focus on sectors such as consumption, technology, and dividend stocks [6]