机构分析认为，法案进一步提升美国未来债务压力，预计这将导致中长期长端美债利率中枢上行。 受关税方面消息影响，美国股市主要股指7日全线下跌，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.94%，标准普尔500 种股票指数下跌0.79%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.92%。 欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔7日表示，欧盟仍在争取于7月9日前与美国达成一项原则性的双边贸易协 议，目前欧盟与美国仍在继续接触。 吉尔说，欧盟始终致力于达成一项有利于欧盟企业、消费者和全球经济的协议。此外，欧盟也已准备好 应对所有结果的选项，包括反制清单，但暂不打算启动该程序。 新华财经北京7月8日电美国国债收益率周一（7月7日）延续涨势，10年期美债收益率涨3.36个基点，报 4.38%；2年期美债收益率涨1.46个基点，报3.89%。2年期与10年期美债利差走阔约2个基点。超长期美 债收益率涨幅超过4个基点，收益率曲线趋向陡峭。 特朗普7月4日签署"大而美"税收和支出法案，标志着这一备受争议的法案正式成为法律。 美国总统特朗普7日表示，将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40% 不等的关税。特朗普在信中警告上述国家领导人称，如果想 ...

特朗普"极限施压"美联储降息的真实目的曝光。 7月6日消息，《华尔街日报》资深央行记者Greg Ip发表文章称，特朗普近期密集要求美联储主席鲍威尔降 息，他希望通过更低的利率来满足自己的财政优先目标，为美国国会刚通过的减税法案提供更便利的融资支 持。 Greg Ip表示，特朗普正试图打破预算赤字与利率之间的传统联系。传统经济学理论认为，大规模借贷会推高 利率，从而抵消减税带来的好处。但特朗普的策略是通过向美联储施压，强制降低利率来配合其财政政策目 标。 文章警告称，这种"财政主导"模式在历史上通常与阿根廷等新兴市场的弱央行相关联，往往会导致通胀、危机 和经济停滞的组合。然而，在短期内，这种模式可能会成为强有力的经济刺激手段，这也解释了美股市场在此 预期下不断创出历史新高。 《华尔街日报》资深央行记者Greg Ip在最新发布的文章中表示，美国总统特朗普要求美联储降息的目的是， 希望通过更低的利率来满足自己的财政优先策略。文章警告称，这种"财政主导"模式往往导致通胀、危机和经 济停滞的"危险组合"。 7月7日，美国财长贝森特表示，市场可能在将特朗普的降息观点计入价格。贝森特认为，今年剩下的时间将会 降息两次。关键 ...

金十数据7月8日讯，当地时间7月7日，国际信用评级机构穆迪维持以色列长期本币和外币评级为 Baa1，并表示以色列与伊朗的直接军事冲突将进一步加剧公共财政压力。该评级反映出，自2023年10 月以来，地缘政治风险上升导致以色列财政状况疲软。穆迪预计，由于国防开支增加和经济增长放缓， 中期内以色列的债务与国内生产总值（GDP）之比将达到75%左右的峰值。在以色列与伊朗的军事冲突 开始之前，该评级机构曾预测这一比值将达到70%的峰值。 穆迪维持以色列Baa1评级 警告与伊朗冲突将加剧财政压力 ...

Group 1 - The South Korean National Assembly recently passed a supplementary budget of approximately 31.8 trillion KRW (about 31.8 trillion KRW equals 100 billion RMB) to stimulate economic recovery amid challenges such as weak consumption and rising trade risks due to the US's so-called "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - The supplementary budget is expected to increase South Korea's GDP growth rate by 0.14 to 0.32 percentage points, with institutions like Goldman Sachs and Barclays raising their GDP growth forecasts to around 1% [2] - The budget includes 12.17 trillion KRW for consumer vouchers and 10.3 trillion KRW to cover tax revenue shortfalls, along with debt relief measures for small and micro enterprises [1] Group 2 - Concerns are rising regarding the increasing fiscal burden, as the total fiscal expenditure in 2025 is projected to reach 703.3 trillion KRW, with government debt as a percentage of GDP rising from 48.4% to 49.1% [2] - The supplementary budget was passed just before the deadline for US tariff negotiations, with South Korean officials engaging in discussions with US counterparts regarding tariff exemptions [2]

Group 1 - Germany is planning to provide billions of euros in subsidies to energy-intensive industries as part of Chancellor Merz's commitment to enhance the competitiveness of German heavy industry, with an estimated investment of around €4 billion [1] - The number of German companies eligible for electricity price subsidies is set to increase from 350 to 2,200, aimed at reducing electricity costs for industrial enterprises [1][2] - The German government emphasizes that supporting industrial enterprises is crucial for maintaining employment amid weak economic growth [1][2] Group 2 - The subsidy plan will cover up to 50% of electricity costs for companies over the next three years, particularly benefiting the chemical, glass, and plastics industries [2] - The plan aligns with the new EU state aid framework, which allows member states to subsidize industrial electricity costs to aid decarbonization efforts [2] - There is ongoing debate regarding the electricity subsidy, with some factions arguing for broader relief measures that include households and smaller businesses [2][4] Group 3 - The expansion of the subsidy reflects Germany's increased support for its industrial sector, particularly in light of significant job losses in the past year [3] - The chemical industry, seen as a barometer for the economy, has shown improved business sentiment, with the business climate index rising significantly [3] - However, there are concerns that the subsidy may undermine incentives for long-term renewable energy contracts and could negatively impact small businesses [4] Group 4 - Germany has one of the highest electricity prices globally, with an average price of €0.38 per kWh in the first quarter of this year [5][6] - The current electricity tax structure places a heavier burden on households compared to industrial users, raising concerns about the government's commitment to reducing energy costs for the public [6] - The new spending plans may conflict with EU fiscal rules, as Germany's federal deficit is projected to increase significantly over the coming years [6]

美国劳动参与率下降，尤其在青年和高龄人口中，失业率虽降低但与失 业金申请等高频指标背离，预示未来失业率可能上升，需警惕劳动力市 场潜在风险。 非农就业数据修正可能大幅下调 2025 年一季度数据，每月或下修 7-8 万人。6 月私人非农收入因工时减少和工资下降而放缓，若持续将与消 费疲软相符。 6 月失业率意外降至 4.12%，但部分原因是人口退出劳动市场，并非市 场回暖。预计未来失业率仍将小幅上升，年底或达 4.4%-4.5%，超过 自然失业率水平。 特朗普政府的移民限制政策短期内压低失业率，减税政策刺激总需求， 但长期限制移民不利于总需求，削弱 GDP 和就业增长。今年劳动市场预 计保持平稳，失业率温和回升。 美联储 9 月首次降息概率较高，年内或降息两次，受当前劳动市场状况 及特朗普政府财政政策影响。需关注降息对市场情绪和资金流向的潜在 影响。 市场情绪遇上大美丽法案 20250707 摘要 Q&A 上周美国市场有哪些重要变化？ 上周美国市场出现了多项重要变化，首先是劳动数据的发布。由于独立日假期， 劳动数据提前一天公布。尽管数据显示非农就业超预期，但从结构上看，劳动 市场的韧性并没有表面上那么强。具体 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced a significant increase, rising by $62.76 or 1.92% for the week ending July 4, marking the best performance in three weeks [1] - The rise in gold prices was driven by uncertainties in trade negotiations and concerns over fiscal risks associated with the "Big and Beautiful" plan, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a weakening dollar [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data released showed an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1%, which overshadowed some of the positive momentum in the gold market [2] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" remains, with President Trump announcing plans to impose tariffs of up to 70% on certain goods, which has attracted safe-haven buying in gold [3] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill is projected to increase the existing $36.2 trillion national debt by $3.4 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the stability of the debt market [4] - Speculative long positions in gold are increasing, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reporting an increase of 7,918 contracts to a total of 443,920 contracts as of July 4 [6]

美国财长贝森特：（关于财政部和美联储的职位）：我将按照总统的意愿行事。 ...

Core Points - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by President Trump on July 4 marks a significant legislative move, reflecting Republican priorities and diminishing Democratic political capital [1][2] - The bill extends many provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, increasing tax exemptions and military spending while cutting social welfare programs [1][3] - Critics argue that the bill disproportionately benefits high-income earners and exacerbates income inequality, with potential negative impacts on low-income households [2][6] Tax and Spending Provisions - The bill raises tax exemption thresholds, including a $25,000 exemption for tip income and a $12,500 exemption for overtime income, while also increasing military spending by $157 billion [1][3] - It eliminates subsidies for clean energy and imposes stricter work requirements for Medicaid, affecting over 7 million people by 2034 [3][4] - Food stamp benefits will be reduced for approximately 40 million people, impacting vulnerable populations including children and the elderly [3][4] Economic Implications - The effectiveness of the tax cuts in stimulating economic growth is questioned, with historical data suggesting limited impact on growth and increasing federal debt [7][8] - The new tariffs are expected to have a negative effect on the economy, with rising consumer costs and potential inflationary pressures [8][9] - Employment levels may not improve significantly, as the bill's measures to increase work requirements could overlook the contributions of undocumented workers [9] Political Context - The passage of the bill reflects a partisan divide, with Republicans leveraging their slim majority to push through legislation that may disadvantage Democrats ahead of the midterm elections [2][6][10] - The upcoming midterm elections will serve as a referendum on the bill, influencing the political landscape for both parties [10]

Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory recorded at 1144.16 tons on July 3, a decrease of 8.17 tons from the previous trading day [1][2] - COMEX gold price closed at 3346.50 USD/ounce on July 4, up 0.31%, with an intraday high of 3355.00 USD/ounce and a low of 3332.80 USD/ounce [1][2] Group 2 - The recent fiscal legislation proposed by Trump aims to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent and introduces new tax deductions, including exemptions for tips and overtime pay [2] - The legislation includes significant cuts to Medicaid, making it harder for low-income Americans to qualify, and tightens food stamp regulations [2] - The bill allocates over 46 billion USD for border security and immigration enforcement, while raising the debt ceiling by 5 trillion USD [2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the new fiscal legislation will increase the U.S. deficit by 3.4 trillion USD over the next decade [2] - The national debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 97.8% to over 125%, significantly higher than the CBO's earlier forecast of 117.1% [2]