2025 年 07 月 11 日 煤炭 稳中求胜，红利为锚 年初至 630 煤炭板块涨跌幅-12%，位居行业最末：2025 年上半 年，由于国内供应端以能源保供作为生产目标的方向并未发生改 变，供应充足与下游补库积极性放缓相互叠加使得价格持续缺乏 向上动能，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价从年初的 765 元/吨下跌 150 元/吨至 615 元/吨，持续处于中长期合同合理区间之内，且 3 月 下旬以来持续低于中长期合同价格；2025H1 均价为 678 元/吨， 同比-23%。京唐港主焦煤从年初的 1520 元/吨下跌 290 元/吨至 1230 元/吨，当前位于近五年来最低点；2025H1 均价 1383 元/吨， 同比-39%。现货价格的持续下跌引发投资者对于板块业绩稳定性 的质疑，叠加市场对于煤炭基本面继续供需宽松的一致预期使得 股价持续承压，截至 6 月 30 日，煤炭板块（申万）涨跌幅-12.29%， 跑输沪深 300，并位居申万行业跌幅最末。细分板块看，动力煤 （申万）涨跌幅-10.11% ，焦煤（申万）涨跌幅-19.04%。 迎峰度夏高温来袭，关注三季度电煤需求向上弹性：1）供给： 内产方面，国 ...

Group 1 - The recent learning session by Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission focused on cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, indicating a shift in the industry towards "cross-border clearing + asset tokenization" as Chinese securities firms upgrade their virtual currency trading licenses [1] - The brokerage sector is experiencing a bullish sentiment due to increased trading volumes, with daily average stock trading reaching 1.6 trillion yuan, a nearly 60% year-on-year increase, and margin financing remaining high at 1.8 trillion yuan, up nearly 20% year-on-year [2] - The implementation of reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the relaxation of IPO regulations are expected to improve the investment banking business for brokerages, with a significant increase in IPO projects being processed [2] Group 2 - The industry has seen multiple significant merger and acquisition events in 2023, indicating a sustained interest in M&A themes [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued a plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, which may lead fund managers to increase allocations to currently underweighted sectors, including non-bank financials [3] - Historical data suggests that during bullish market expectations, the brokerage index's price-to-book (PB) ratio can quickly recover to above 2 times, with the current PB ratio at 1.47, indicating substantial potential for growth in the brokerage sector [4]

Group 1 - Needham downgraded CoreWeave's rating from "Buy" to "Hold," citing that the $9 billion acquisition of Core Scientific is strategically significant but appears overvalued [1] - The acquisition is expected to release an additional 150MW to 200MW of IT capacity for high-performance computing (HPC) and AI workloads [1] - Analysts believe the deal will provide CoreWeave with high-quality underlying infrastructure, reduce capital costs through asset-backed securities financing, save $500 million in annual operating expenses, and bring in an internal data center operations team [1] Group 2 - Following the acquisition announcement, several securities firms, including Stifel and Mizuho, downgraded their ratings on CoreWeave [2] - As of Thursday's market close, CoreWeave's stock fell by 9.64% to $138.29, despite a year-to-date increase of 246% [2]

Core Insights - The bond market is experiencing a significant decline in yields, with "AAA" rated credit bonds reaching historical lows, prompting traders to engage in frequent wave trading to capture small profit margins [1][4][5] - The overall investment environment is shifting towards low-risk assets due to increased volatility in stocks and funds, leading to a preference for stable, low-risk investments [3][12] Bond Market Trends - The issuance rates for "AAA" rated credit bonds have dropped significantly, with examples such as Huadian International's bond at 1.89% and Zhongshan Public's bond at 1.66%, marking record lows for similar ratings and terms [1][4] - The yield for 1-year "AAA" rated city investment bonds has decreased to as low as 1.67%, down from approximately 2.5%-2.8% in the same period last year, indicating a drop of 80-110 basis points [4][5] Trading Strategies - The importance of wave trading has increased as the yield spread narrows, with traders aiming for small gains of 1-2 basis points per transaction [1][2] - Institutions are increasingly adopting high-frequency trading strategies to capitalize on short-term market fluctuations, with a notable rise in participation from public funds, insurance asset management, and bank wealth management subsidiaries [7][12] Investment Challenges - The low yield environment presents challenges for institutions, as they struggle to meet liability requirements while facing limited profit margins [8][9] - The scarcity of high-yield assets is becoming more pronounced, with banks unable to invest in the stock market due to regulatory constraints, leading to a focus on the bond market for asset allocation [9][10] Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue experiencing downward pressure on yields due to monetary policy shifts and economic challenges, with the potential for further interest rate cuts [5][6] - Institutions are advised to diversify their portfolios by incorporating longer-duration bonds, industry bonds, and equity assets to enhance yield potential in a low-rate environment [12][14]

2025年7月11日星期五 ➢ 中美外长或会晤；OPEC+讨论暂停 增产。A股日内强势，但尾盘有一定 抛压。上证指数涨0.48%报3509.68点， 盘中创9个月新高；深证成指涨0.47%， 创业板指涨0.22%。房地产、银行板 块拉升。港股震荡走强。香港恒生 指数收盘涨0.57%报24028.37点，恒 生科技指数跌0.29%，恒生中国企业 指数涨0.83%。内房股走强、券商、 科技走强。大盘成交额2467.275亿港 元。外盘方面，欧洲三大股指收盘 涨跌不一。美国三大股指小幅收涨， 道指涨0.43%，标普500指数涨0.27%， 纳指涨0.09%。美国国务卿卢比奥计 划与中国外长王毅会晤。OPEC+讨 论10月起暂停增产。 资料来源：彭博 | 24028.37 | | --- | | 23720 | | 24325 | | 23981.74 | | 23597.41 | | 21627.71 | | 52.84 | 183 35 3511-15 XIN YONGAN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED Units 3511-15, 35/F, Cosco To ...

提问 如何理解配置先行？ 唐军 配置先行是相对过去大家比较熟知的、从选人角度出发来做FOF投资的一种理念。配置先行的意思 是，我们先要有自己的配置框架、配置观点，然后去选择符合我们配置观点的基金经理或基金产品。 提问 做"配置先行"需要什么能力？ 截至2025年6月30日，由唐军管理的中泰天择稳健6个月持有A近2年、近1年的排名分别为3/135、2/179 （数据来源：国泰海通证券，产品分类为普通FOF低仓位）， 但我们今天更希望向您呈现的，是这位基 金经理的投资框架。 提问 用一句话来介绍，你会怎么说？ 唐军 我是一个配置先行的FOF基金经理，就是通过自上而下的配置，以FOF这种形式，希望能给投资者带 来更稳健、更高的收益风险比的投资回报。 唐军 一是要有一个相对独立或者客观的配置的 分析框架 ，这样才能有比较独立的配置观点。 二要有选择最优的配置工具来实现配置观点的能力，这就是通常所说的 优选基金的能力 。 三是要有严格的、科学的 风险预算框架 。很多人理解做配置就是对资产进行择时，这个通俗的理解其实 也没错，但择时的胜率不会很高，所以它需要有严格的风险控制，或者说在风险预算的框架体系下，我们 才能够使资 ...

据IMF数据显示，全球外汇储备管理机构在第一季度将避险资产配置从日元转向瑞士法郎。这些资金在 1月至3月间抛售了创纪录的943亿美元日元，同时买入了667亿美元瑞士法郎，导致截至3月31日，瑞士 法郎在全球储备中的占比跃升至0.76%。（彭博） ...

Group 1 - Strong performance of brokerage stocks, with notable increases: Nanhua Financial up 94.2% to HKD 0.435, Zhongzhou Securities up 64.14% to HKD 3.25, and Lihua Securities Holdings up 49.36% to HKD 0.233 [1] - The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region's "Stablecoin Regulation" will officially take effect on August 1, 2025, allowing firms like Guotai Junan International and Tianfeng International Securities to provide virtual asset trading services to professional investors [1] - Market trading volume has recently increased, enhancing the pricing attractiveness of the securities sector, with a focus on internal issues expected in the near term [1] Group 2 - Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a study session on July 10 regarding the development trends and strategies for cryptocurrencies and stablecoins [2] - The competition in on-chain finance is expected to intensify as more players enter the stablecoin market, with a shift in asset anchoring from primarily U.S. Treasury bonds to a diversified asset base [2] - Stablecoins are anticipated to play a significant role as important payment tools, enhancing asset investment activity and liquidity in financial innovation [2]

7月10日晚间，正在开展A股市场有史以来最大规模吸收合并重组的中国船舶和中国重工发布 2025年半年度业绩预增公告。 数据显示， 中国船舶预计2025年上半年实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润28亿元至31亿元之 间，同比增长98.25%至119.49%；中国重工预计上半年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 15亿元至18亿元之间，同比增长181.73%至283.08%。 对于业绩大幅增长的原因，中国船舶表示，报告期内，公司聚焦主责主业，在确保生产安全的 前提下，狠抓生产保交付，提升精益管理水平，生产效率稳步提升；船舶行业整体保持良好发 展态势，公司手持订单结构升级优化；报告期内交付的民品船舶价格同比提升，建造成本管控 得当，营业毛利同比增加；联营企业的经营业绩持续改善。 中国重工表示，报告期内，公司把握船舶行业发展态势，进一步发挥主建船型批量建造优势， 强化精益管理，深化成本管控，着力提升效率效益，交付的民船产品数量大幅增加，营业收入 相应增长，经营业绩同比明显提升。 免责声明 文章封面图来源于AI，以上观点来自相关机构，不代表天天基金的观点，不对观点的准确性 和完整性做任何保证。收益率数据仅供参考，过往业绩和走 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed an overall upward trend on July 11, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.94%, and the ChiNext Index gaining 1.19% [1][2] - The total market turnover reached 1.03 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase compared to the previous day [2] Key Sectors - The financial sector performed strongly, with major financial stocks leading the market rally [2] - The rare earth sector experienced a "blowout" performance, with significant gains in related stocks such as Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel, both hitting the daily limit [6][7] - Other sectors like CRO, fintech, and lithium extraction from salt lakes also saw upward movement, while education, photovoltaic, and circuit board sectors faced corrections [2] Rare Earth Sector - Rare earth and rare earth permanent magnet stocks surged, with Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel both reaching their daily limit [6] - The price of rare earth concentrate for related transactions was adjusted to 19,109 yuan per ton (excluding tax), a 1.5% increase from the previous quarter [8] - Demand for rare earth materials is expected to grow, with projections indicating that global demand for praseodymium and neodymium oxide will reach 117,000 tons and 126,900 tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.7% and 8.4% [9] Fintech Sector - Fintech stocks saw significant gains, with companies like Guoao Technology and Anshuo Information rising over 14% [11] - Major state-owned banks also reached new highs, contributing to the overall positive sentiment in the fintech sector [13] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market mirrored the gains in the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.9% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 2.08% [4] - Chinese brokerage stocks surged, with Zhongzhou Securities experiencing a rise of over 75% at one point during the trading session [15]