Core Insights - The report indicates a "relatively hot" market sentiment with a composite score of 66, suggesting a positive outlook for market performance [5][12] - Recent policy support and improved market sentiment are driving a gradual upward trend in the market [12] Hot Topics Tracking - **Data Theme**: The National Data Bureau and the State Administration for Market Regulation have introduced measures to enhance data circulation efficiency, potentially increasing efficiency by 30% [6] - **Cross-Border Payment Theme**: The People's Bank of China has released a draft for the rules governing the Renminbi cross-border payment system, aiming to simplify participation conditions for foreign institutions [6] - **Innovative Drug Theme**: The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission have issued measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, emphasizing the use of medical insurance data in drug research [6] Market Sentiment Analysis - The market sentiment temperature indicator shows a trend where scores below 30 provide support for the market, while scores above 90 indicate resistance [12] - The report suggests that during "relatively hot" market conditions, investors may consider increasing their investments while remaining cautious of potential overheating risks [24] Major Capital Flows - The report lists significant net inflows for various stocks, with "跨境通" (Cross-Border Communication) leading at 85,258.43 million [13] - Conversely, notable net outflows were observed in "中油资本" (China Oil Capital) with -76,258.27 million, indicating investor caution in certain sectors [15] Industry Performance - The report highlights the performance of various industries, with significant net inflows observed in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and electronics, while industries like pharmaceuticals and defense showed substantial net outflows [20][21]

朱杰进认为，美元霸权的建立始于布雷顿森林体系，其"实力"与"虚力"的匹配曾支撑美国主导的国际货 币秩序。但1971 年 "尼克松冲击"后，美元虽脱离黄金锚定，却凭借SWIFT系统网络效应、国际治理体 系授权等"虚力"延续霸权。当前美国推动稳定币发展，美国官方虽宣称旨在巩固美元的霸权地位，但此 举实际上可能会削弱SWIFT体系以及整个美元霸权的传统优势，存在"自毁长城"的风险。 圆桌会上，复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院国际政治系教授朱杰进围绕稳定币发展与美元霸权的深层 关联展开分析，指出稳定币在跨境支付领域的崛起可能对国际货币体系产生结构性影响，在一定程度上 会削弱美元霸权。 然而，随着美国在世界经济中的实力不断衰落，美元霸权本身的内在困境逐渐显现。1971 年的 "尼克松 冲击" 中，美国表示不再承担 "双挂钩" 的责任，但此时 "虚力" 的作用凸显出来 —— 美元依然被视为国 际储备货币。 2025年6月17日，美国参议院通过稳定币相关法案后，美国国内出现了诸多批评声音，认为该法案会损 害美元霸权。但美国财长贝森特认为，稳定币将提升美元霸权。实际上，在稳定币发行的过程中，美国 的国内政治考量显然要优先于国际 ...

Group 1 - Hainan's cross-border tourism is experiencing a surge due to favorable policies such as 240-hour visa-free transit and "buy and refund" tax refund policies, with Haikou Customs reporting a total of 8,433 flights and cruises monitored, and 1.196 million people traveling in and out, representing year-on-year increases of 18.47% and 20.6% respectively [1] - The international air routes from Hainan have been expanded, with new flights added to Tokyo, London, and Jeddah, and Sanya now offering routes to Seoul and St. Petersburg, resulting in a total of 69 international routes covering 21 countries and regions, and 36 cities as of June this year [1] - Sanya has attracted nearly 500,000 overnight international visitors in the first half of the year, with major tourist sources being Russian-speaking countries and South Korea, highlighting the appeal of Sanya's tourism products like diving, surfing, and golf to young South Koreans [1] Group 2 - Hainan's outbound tourism remains strong, with approximately 40 travel groups sent out each month to popular destinations such as Singapore, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, and South Korea, according to a local travel agency [2] - The ongoing development of Hainan's free trade port policies and the expansion of its flight network are enhancing its openness to the world, with Haikou Customs committed to providing efficient supervision and high-standard services for cross-border travelers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Cross-Border One Lock" rapid customs clearance model in Fuzhou marks a significant advancement in enhancing logistics efficiency for goods transported from Fujian to Hong Kong and beyond, contributing to the high-quality development of Fujian's export-oriented economy [1][2] Group 1: Model Overview - The "Cross-Border One Lock" model integrates the "Road Cross-Border Rapid Customs Clearance" reform by the General Administration of Customs of China and the "Multi-Modal Transport Convenience Plan" by Hong Kong Customs, facilitating a streamlined customs supervision process [1] - This model allows for deep cooperation among customs authorities in Fujian, Guangdong, and Hong Kong, enabling export express shipments to be released after document declaration and sealing with a smart lock in Fuzhou, followed by automatic release at the Shenzhen port [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Compared to traditional road transfer models, the "Cross-Border One Lock" utilizes secure smart locks and 5G IoT technology, allowing for real-time tracking of vehicle locations and transport trajectories through satellite positioning [2] - The new model reduces the transit time from Fuzhou to Hong Kong to just 16 hours, a reduction of 6-8 hours compared to the previous model, resulting in a 28% savings in logistics costs [2] Group 3: Future Developments - The Fujian Provincial Department of Commerce plans to continue expanding the application scope and service functions of the "Cross-Border One Lock" model, aiming to build a more efficient and convenient international logistics channel [2]

稳定币抬头的洗钱风险值得警惕。 近日，据媒体报道，义乌已有零星商户接收稳定币，虽未出现传闻中"月流水10亿美元"的盛况，却也给 市场敲响了警钟。这种看似便捷的支付方式，若放任其游走在监管边缘，很可能成为洗钱分子的"暗 道"。不仅将扰乱现有的金融秩序，还可能冲击实体经济秩序。 不同于币值大起大落的比特币，稳定币有一套维持币值稳定的特殊机制，生来就带着"交易工具"的属 性。 一方面，由于匿名化、去中心化的手段，用户身份通常以钱包地址呈现，而非真实姓名。使得资金流向 难以追踪，为洗钱分子掩盖资金来源提供了便利。 技术上也有办法，区块链虽然藏得住人，却记着每一笔账，可以开发专门的监测工具，顺着交易记录追 根溯源。 普及稳定币风险知识也至关重要。要让商户明白，看似轻松的交易背后，稍有不慎就可能卷入违法漩 涡。 此外，由于稳定币跨境流动特性，单一国家的监管难以奏效，需加强国际协作，建立跨境反洗钱信息共 享机制，联合打击利用稳定币进行的跨国洗钱活动。 当然，跨境支付确实需要创新。以中国香港试点与数字人民币协同发展的合规路径已在探索之中。或许 将来，在外贸集中的自贸区，试点离岸人民币稳定币，既能满足商家需求，又能把交易圈在阳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adoption of stablecoins for cross-border payments is still limited among merchants in key Chinese markets, with many expressing a lack of understanding and concerns about compliance and costs [1][2]. Group 1: Merchant Awareness and Usage - Most merchants in Yiwu and Shenzhen are unaware of stablecoins, with only a few expressing interest in using them for transactions [1][2]. - A small number of merchants indicated they might consider using stablecoins for international payments, but none reported having completed such transactions [2]. - Merchants primarily rely on traditional payment methods like cash and Alipay for foreign transactions, with one merchant mentioning a recent $30,000 transfer via Alipay [2]. Group 2: Stablecoin Characteristics and Market Dynamics - Stablecoins, such as USDT, are pegged to fiat currencies, providing a more stable alternative compared to other cryptocurrencies [1][4]. - The market for stablecoins has gained traction globally, particularly following legislative progress in the US and Hong Kong [1]. - The exchange process for stablecoins involves "U merchants" who facilitate the conversion between stablecoins and fiat currencies, often charging fees and setting minimum transaction amounts [3]. Group 3: Regulatory and Compliance Issues - The use of stablecoins for cross-border payments in China faces significant regulatory challenges, as current laws prohibit the use of virtual currencies for such transactions [4][5]. - Legal experts emphasize that while personal trading of virtual currencies may be permissible, using them for business transactions is fraught with compliance risks [5].

日前，有消费者在社交平台指出，法国高端护肤品牌伊菲丹（EviDenS de Beauté）三重胶原全面隔离防 晒霜（EviDenS de Beauté The Total Shield SPF50 PA++++）未在中国内地完成本地检测及备案，引发市 场对其合规性的广泛质疑。 根据中国《化妆品监督管理条例》，防晒类产品属于特殊化妆品，需通过人体功效评价试验并取得注册 证后方可销售。 伊菲丹方面回应观察者网时表示，伊菲丹三重胶原全面隔离防晒霜是一款跨境进口商品（海外原装入 境）。根据中国现行的跨境电子商务零售进口监管政策，该类商品遵循原产国的法律法规和质量安全标 准，并可免于办理中国化妆品注册证（即无"国妆特进字"号）。 品牌方提供的检测报告显示，该产品在原产国已严格按照国际公认的防晒功效评价标准（ISO 24444） 进行检测，由权威第三方实验室 AMA Laboratories, Inc. 完成测试（测试参考号: MS15.UVA.PPD.O0504.MATT.ISO10），并取得相应上市许可。检测结果明确证明该产品达到并符合标 示的 SPF50 和 PA++++ 高倍防护等级，完全满足欧盟、日本及美国等地 ...

Core Insights - The cancellation of the T86 exemption policy by the U.S. has significantly impacted cross-border e-commerce, pushing sellers to seek new markets while facing increased operational challenges [1][2][5] - Companies like SHEIN and Temu, which previously benefited from the exemption, are now experiencing a decline in user engagement and are accelerating their expansion into overseas markets [2][3] - Emerging markets such as Japan, Europe, and Latin America are being considered for expansion due to their growth potential, although challenges like compliance and logistics remain [3][4][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. has reduced the tax exemption for small packages, leading to a shift in the business model for cross-border sellers [1][2] - SHEIN and Temu have seen significant drops in daily active users, with SHEIN's U.S. monthly active users decreasing by 30% in May compared to March [1][2] - The cancellation of the exemption policy has forced companies to adapt quickly, with many looking towards markets like Japan, which offers lower logistics costs and a high consumer acceptance rate [3][4] Group 2: Regional Opportunities - Japan is emerging as a preferred market due to its proximity, high consumer income, and low return rates, making it attractive for cross-border sellers [3][4] - The European market presents strong consumer purchasing power but comes with complex compliance requirements, such as VAT registration [4] - Latin America, particularly Brazil and Mexico, is showing rapid growth in e-commerce, with expected revenue growth rates of 17.6% and 19% respectively [4][5] Group 3: Operational Challenges - The shift from fully managed to semi-managed models increases operational burdens on sellers, requiring them to handle logistics and customs themselves [7] - The need for local warehousing and the associated costs pose significant challenges, especially in distant markets like Latin America [4][6] - Companies must now focus on localizing their operations and understanding consumer behavior to remain competitive in the evolving landscape of cross-border e-commerce [7][8]

Group 1 - The company Lakala (300773.SZ) has announced plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as part of its international development strategy [2] - The company aims to enhance its competitiveness in the international market by promoting the application of digital currency in cross-border scenarios [2] - Currently, the company is in discussions with intermediaries regarding the specifics of the H-share listing, which is a complex and systematic process [2] Group 2 - Lakala was established in 2005 and became a leading third-party payment institution in China after obtaining a payment business license from the People's Bank of China in 2011 [3] - The company provides comprehensive digital business solutions for merchants, enterprises, and financial institutions, focusing on various sectors such as dining, retail, automotive, and tourism [3] - Lakala is deepening its "Payment+" strategy and integrating AI into its business to support high-quality development of the real economy [3] Group 3 - In 2024, Lakala reported a revenue of 5.759 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 351 million yuan, down 23.26% [4] - In the first quarter of 2025, the company's revenue was 1.299 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.01%, with a net profit of 101 million yuan, down 51.71% [4] - Lakala has no controlling shareholder or actual controller, with Lenovo Holdings being the largest shareholder, holding a 26.14% stake, which may provide support and potential synergies for the company [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 39.00, representing a 7% upside from the current price of RMB 31.92 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company has established a cross-border payment subsidiary, NovaPay, and obtained a USA MSB license, which lays the foundation for its cross-border payment operations [5][11]. - The MSB license allows the company to legally operate in various currency-related services, including currency exchange, remittance, and digital currency transactions [12]. - The report highlights the promising cross-border payment market driven by RMB internationalization and the increasing demand for localized payment solutions as Chinese enterprises expand overseas [13]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financials indicate a revenue increase from RMB 8,250 million in 2023 to RMB 11,705 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow significantly from RMB 1,004 million in 2023 to RMB 1,916 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 22.0% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast is set at RMB 1.30 for 2025, RMB 1.52 for 2026, and RMB 1.86 for 2027, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30x for 2025 [5][10].