穷在闹市无人问，富在深山有远亲。黄金价格在相对低位的时候，说实话有几个人会发现牛市来临，有几个人在300多人民币的时候进场做多拿两年黄金价 格涨到了现在快800一克了，似乎都发现黄金上涨，没有人不知道黄金上涨，而且投资者是络绎不绝的选择进场，总害怕错过最后的上涨！ 说实话，我知道要上涨的，但是我也没有想到黄金价格涨这么高，也超出了我的认知范围了，而此刻黄金已经来到了历史高点了，我不管别人认为黄金会涨 到那里去，或者机构借助媒体报道黄金要涨到哪里去，我并这样认为，因为市场有市场的规律，金融有金融规则，不可能打破这个规则和金融秩序。 黄金上涨逻辑： 如果发生战争，黄金100%要出现上涨！ 还有各国央行的增持黄金会让黄金上涨。 可能我没有想到那些原因可以在评论区来弥补我所说空缺，这些都是造成黄金上涨原因，目前黄金上涨这些因素都具备！俄罗斯乌克兰战争都好几年了，还 没有结束。 美联储也进入降息周期当中，这也是给黄金带来上涨的原因。 通胀似乎现在慢慢没有太大的通胀了，由于毛衣战造成的是通缩，看看我们国内经济内卷到什么程度了。 全世界经济并未想象的那么好，看着很好，实质都不怎么样。 美联储降息释放流动性黄金要上涨！ 通胀 ...

在这场讨论中，一些用户描述了被门夹伤的痛苦经历：金属门框合拢瞬间带来的剧痛、迅速肿胀的指节，甚至有人晒 出了指甲血肿甚至手指骨折的照片。一位设计师在回答中详细记录了自己购买智能门锁后遭遇的夹手事故：当无名指 被门缝咬住时，有触电般的麻痹感。 与此同时，社交媒体上传播的"黄瓜测试"视频直观暴露了现阶段门锁产品的设计缺陷——传统门锁关闭时轻松夹断黄 瓜的画面，被网友称为"震撼的安全教育"。 有业内人士将此现象指向锁体结构缺陷。"大部分锁体的锁芯孔中心到门边的距离仅60mm，叠加现代流行的推拉式把 手设计后，锁身与门框间的预留空间通常不足5mm，用户开关门时手指几乎紧贴门框边缘。物理空间的局促使得动作 稍有偏差，手指便会被快速闭合的门缝咬住。" 具体来看，这些锁体虽符合国家标准要求，但60毫米的距离不足以保障手指的安全操作空间。对于门夹手这一安全风 险，多数品牌既未有效预防，也缺乏事后补救措施。 主流判断认为，当千万家庭每日高频使用的智能门锁存在设计缺陷时，仅靠用户小心操作并非解决之道。只有从设计 源头重构安全逻辑，才能真正实现"想怎么开就怎么开"的自由操作。"真正安全的防盗门，既要防得住外部的侵入，更 要守得住用 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货大面积收涨，白银涨幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20250609 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读 本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 1、宏观精要 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the pig farming industry is experiencing a short-term decline in pig prices due to accelerated weight reduction and increased slaughtering, but this is expected to lead to a price rebound around mid-June 2025 as supply contracts and inventory levels drop [1] - The China Livestock Breeding Index (930707) has shown positive performance with key stocks such as Shennong Group (605296) rising by 4.67%, Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) by 4.64%, and Muyuan Foods (002714) by 4.18% [1] - According to Everbright Securities, the industry capacity cycle has bottomed out, and the current high inventory levels are expected to decline, which may trigger a long-term profit uptrend in the sector after the inventory reduction phase ends [1] Group 2 - The Livestock ETF (159867) has increased by 1.31%, with the latest price reported at 0.62 yuan, reflecting the overall performance of the livestock breeding sector [1] - The China Livestock Breeding Index is designed to track the performance of listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for 68.9% of the index [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Haida Group (002311), Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, indicating a concentrated market structure [2]

老二手房类似"红利股"，次新房类似"高估值价值股"， 老现房类似"伪成长股"，压力最 大，新好房类似"成长股"，是推动新房价格回升的主要力量。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 目前百城住宅租金价格环比跌幅有所收窄，5月上海、广州住宅租金环比回升，北京、深圳环比回落； 30个二线城市中，住宅租金环比上涨、持平和下跌的城市分别为16个、1个和13个；成都、天津、武 汉、乌鲁木齐的租金比较坚挺。 当前中国人均住房面积已超过40平方米，与发达国家相当，房地产的功能不再仅仅是满足居民基本居 住需求，还带有改善性目的，从"有房住"向"住得好"转变，房子的估值逻辑也在发生变化。 一、大多数房产 终将成为"价值股" 随着市场的逐步成熟与稳定，大部分房产会逐渐演变为"价值股"，稳定、低估值且有一定的租金回报 率。 少数优质的房产，凭借其独特的品质，可能暂时成为"成长股"，但这类房产终究是少数。 租售比是房产的PE，租金是房产的EPS，租售比（租金回报率）决定了房产作为投资品的性价比。 目 前 百 城 租 金 回 报 率 在 2.3%-2.4% ， 从 投 资 角 度 看 ， 租 金 回 报 率 的 合 理 区 间 应 该 在 ...

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 重视稀土产业链的供给侧逻辑 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 23 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 08 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 美债危机叠加关税冲击，关注黄金板块的 | 2025-06-03 | | --- | --- | | 投 资 机 会 ： — — 有 色 钢 铁 行 业 周 观 点 | | | （2025 年第 22 周） | | | 积极关注稀土等战略金属板块的投资机 | 2025-05-18 | | 会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 | | | 20 周） | | | 铁矿价格出现明显松动，继续关注钢铁板 | 2025-05-11 | | 块的投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点 | | | （2025 年第 19 周） | | 有关分 ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年6月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：偏弱 锌：过剩或将兑现，价格偏承压 冶炼利润较为充裕 -1800 -1300 -800 -300 200 700 1200 1700 2200 2700 01-01 01-13 01-25 02-06 02-18 03-02 03-14 03-26 04-07 04-19 05-01 05-13 05-25 06-06 06-18 06-30 07-12 07-24 08-05 08-17 08-29 09-10 09-22 10-04 10-17 10-29 11-10 11-22 12-04 12-16 12-28 元/吨 冶炼利润（考虑副产品） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 社库低位企稳 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 01-02 01- ...

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Hupu by Xunlei for 500 million RMB raises questions about the valuation of male consumer power and community value, suggesting that the price may be misleading [1] Group 1: Community Value and Comparison - Hupu, a community with a strong male demographic, peaked at nearly 100 million registered users and over 90 million monthly active users, contrasting sharply with Xiaohongshu, which has over 500 million registered users and a valuation approximately 400 times that of Hupu [2] - The disparity in user numbers and valuations between Xiaohongshu and Hupu does not indicate the decline of communities or differences in male and female consumer power, but rather stems from their distinct business models [2][3] - Hupu's business model relies heavily on advertising, with over 90% of its revenue coming from this source, while Xiaohongshu operates on a dual model of advertising and e-commerce [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior Insights - Research indicates that while women dominate spending in categories like beauty and fashion, men spend more on electronics, automobiles, and high-priced durable goods [6][7] - In 2022, the average annual spending for 90s generation women was 45,000 RMB, compared to 41,000 RMB for men, showing a narrowing gap in consumer spending [7] - Male investors in the A-share market represent about 62% of individual investors, with an average holding value 1.3 times that of female investors, highlighting the significant financial consumption power of men [8] Group 3: Changing Gender Dynamics in Consumption - The lines between male and female consumer interests are blurring, with younger generations showing overlapping interests in categories like digital products, gaming, and beauty [9][10] - The rise of "post-genderism" suggests that individuals are increasingly making choices based on interests rather than gender, with both men and women participating in traditionally gendered activities [12][13] - The focus on community and shared interests is becoming a more significant driver of consumer behavior than traditional gender roles [13]

Core Viewpoint - The management logic of cultural arts can be summarized in four key principles: respect for two rules, enhance cost awareness, consider various interests, and achieve a dual effect of social and economic benefits [1] Group 1: Respecting Development Logic - The development of the cultural industry requires a balance between cultural and market rules. Solely following cultural rules may lead to brilliant ideas that lack market promotion, while only adhering to market rules risks reducing cultural arts to profit-driven tools [2] - Cost awareness is crucial, as many cultural projects fail due to a lack of focus on costs. Overemphasis on visual spectacle can overshadow narrative charm, resulting in projects that are "flashy but impractical" [2] Group 2: Achieving Dual Benefits - The ultimate goal of this management logic is to unify social and economic benefits. Projects with high social benefits but low short-term economic returns may receive government subsidies, while those with low social benefits could be constrained through measures like a "cultural pollution tax" [4] Group 3: Application to New Trends - When applying this logic to new trends like AIGC, the core principles remain applicable. Industry participants should leverage technology while ensuring market-driven resource allocation, especially during exploratory phases, to avoid excessive administrative intervention [5] Group 4: Urban Development and Business Environment - The key to promoting cultural industry development in cities lies in building a favorable business environment, which requires a breakthrough in thought processes. Many initiatives are often imitative rather than innovative, which can hinder progress [6] - A significant transformation in the business environment necessitates a re-evaluation of government functions to reduce institutional transaction costs, as observed in some coastal developed regions with efficient government characteristics [6] Group 5: Service-Oriented Approach - The business environment fundamentally revolves around people. A service-oriented approach, characterized by a "storekeeper" mentality of being responsive to businesses, is essential for enhancing enterprise satisfaction and measuring the quality of the business environment [7] Group 6: Publication of the Book - The book "The Management Logic of Cultural Arts" includes 55 theoretical articles published from 2013 to 2023, and it is the first collection from the western region included in the "Woodpecker Series" initiated by various cultural organizations in China [8]

MME团队 投稿 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 逻辑推理是人类智能的核心能力，也是多模态大语言模型 (MLLMs) 的关键能力。随着DeepSeek-R1等具备强大推理能力的LLM的出现，研 究人员开始探索如何将推理能力引入多模态大模型(MLLMs)。 然而，现有的benchmark大多缺乏对逻辑推理类型的明确分类，以及对逻辑推理的理解不够清晰，常将感知能力或知识广度与推理能力混 淆。 在此背景下，复旦大学及香港中文大学MMLab联合上海人工智能实验室等多家单位，提出了MME-Reasoning，旨在全面的评估多模态大模 型的推理能力。 结果显示，最优模型得分仅60%左右。 MME-Reasoning：全面评估多模态推理能力 根据Charles Sanders Peirce的分类标准，推理分为三类：演绎推理 (Deductive)、归纳推理 (Inductive) 以及溯因推理 (Abductive)。 MME-Reasoning以此分类作为标准来全面的测评多模态大模型的推理能力。 演绎推理 (Deductive reasoning) 使用规则和前提来推导出结论。 归纳推理 (Inductive reas ...