Group 1 - The outlook for May suggests that "signing for the sake of signing" may become a narrative in overseas markets, with expectations of further recovery in risk appetite and a focus on theme-based trading opportunities in A-shares due to low institutional holdings [1] - Economic impacts are already occurring, with three major trends expected to remain unchanged: the enhancement of China's independent technological capabilities, the reconstruction of European defense and the improvement of energy, infrastructure, and resource reserves, and the necessity for China to promote "dual circulation" to stimulate domestic demand [1] - Global market risk aversion has decreased, leading to a recovery in risk appetite, supported by liquidity and a slowdown in trade tensions, with domestic consumption improving due to the May Day holiday [1] Group 2 - The first quarter reports indicate that small-cap growth and technology sectors are likely to outperform in May, with significant improvements in small-cap performance compared to 2024 [2] - The TMT sector shows notable earnings improvements, particularly in sub-sectors like computers, media, and semiconductors [2] - Potential catalysts for technology in May include the anticipated release of new models such as DeepSeek's R2, suggesting a structurally driven market [2]

中信证券：A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题轮动特征 展望5月，中信证券预计风险偏好还有回升空间，A股将继续呈现风偏回暖、主题轮动的特征，以低机构持仓 的主题型交易机会为主。但从经济层面来看，真实的影响已经悄然发生，中信证券预计中美经济在二季度尾声 可能会面临新的变数。 配置上，除了短期的热点主题轮动，中信证券依然建议聚焦三个不变的大趋势：一是中国自主科技能力的提升 趋势不会动摇；二是欧洲重建自主防务，提升能源、基建和资源储备的趋势不会动摇；三是中国势必要走 通"双循环"，加速完善社会保障并激发内需潜力是政策的必选项。 广发证券：景气投资回归 短期A股考虑三重因素：一是一些负面的一季报靴子落地；二是TMT反应度模型已经处于下限位置；三是国内 外大厂在大模型、算力芯片、端侧、AI应用的进展不断，5月—6月继续看好科技股的机会。 中期角度来说，回到三类资产对应的三个模型，在出现地产周期大反弹或科技应用大爆发之前，中长期对中性 股息组合保持关注。另外，考虑到国内科技大厂资本开支正在加大、产业链订单开始释放，景气成长组合以及 所代表的景气投资风格，当前大概率仍会占优；但由于报表业绩体现方面存在不确定性，各类上市公司的表观 ...

特朗普刚上台就对华挥起关税大棒，想靠加税逼中国低头，重振美国经济，可这仗打得有点"搬石头砸脚"的味道，前财长耶伦站出来放话，美国经济被中 国捏着"命门"，关税战简直是自己给自己找麻烦。 2025年一季度GDP直接萎缩0.3%，耶伦的警告一语成谶，可特朗普团队还嘴硬，喊着"阵痛"就能翻盘，一边却又偷偷摸摸想和中国谈，这场关税战到底会 把美国经济拖向哪儿呢？ 文案|编辑：清 特朗普上任后，摆出一副要"让美国再次伟大"的架势，核心招数之一就是对华关税战，4月初，他推动"对等关税"政策，专门针对中国加征高关税，理由听 起来挺硬气：中国占了美国便宜，贸易逆差太大，必须用关税逼中国让步，顺便保护美国本土产业。特朗普的团队还放出豪言，称美国经济体量大、底子 厚，扛得住这场硬仗，短期阵痛换来的是长期繁荣。 这套逻辑乍听有几分道理，美国确实长期对华贸易逆差，2024年数据显示，逆差高达4000亿美元，特朗普团队认为，高关税能让中国商品变贵，美国消费 者转而买本土货，刺激国内制造业复苏。 同时，关税还能增加财政收入，填补政府开支缺口，更重要的是，特朗普想通过经济施压，逼中国在贸易谈判中妥协，开放市场、减少补贴，达成更有利 于美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agreement between the United States and Ukraine to establish a reconstruction investment fund is seen as a product of intense negotiations, with more symbolic significance than practical impact on the ongoing conflict and peace talks [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement includes provisions for the control and extraction of Ukraine's mineral resources [1] - The negotiations leading to the agreement were characterized by prolonged discussions and back-and-forth between the parties involved [1] Group 2: Analysis and Implications - Analysts suggest that the agreement appears extensive and large-scale but ultimately serves as a temporary measure rather than a solution to halt the violence on the battlefield [1] - The deal is viewed as a "band-aid" rather than a substantive step towards facilitating a ceasefire or advancing peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine [1]

每经编辑 杜宇 据央视新闻，乌克兰总统泽连斯基5月3日凌晨发布消息称，俄军5月2日夜间开始再次对乌克兰发动空袭。数十架攻击型无人机对哈尔科夫市进行了打击，数 座居民楼、企业和民用基础设施受损，已有超过40人受伤。救援人员和相关部门正在各处展开工作。 哈尔科夫是乌克兰第二大城市。 据央视新闻，俄罗斯国防部当地时间5月2日通报称，在过去一周，俄军打击了乌方军工企业、电子情报系统基地、武器弹药库等目标。俄防空部队则击落乌 军1架苏-27战机和1000余架无人机，并拦截了航空炸弹、"海马斯"火箭弹和2枚改装后的S-200导弹。另外，俄军还在黑海水域击毁乌军1艘美制快艇和多艘 无人艇。 图片来源：央视新闻 另据央视新闻，乌克兰第一副总理、经济部长2日表示，美乌于4月30日同意建立的"美国-乌克兰重建投资基金"，也就是此前所称的"美乌矿产协议"已被提 交至乌克兰议会。 据乌克兰国际文传电讯社2日报道，乌克兰最高拉达（议会）将于5月8日召开特别会议，审议这项美乌间达成的协议并进行投票表决。斯维里坚科表示，如 果议会顺利通过，"美国-乌克兰重建投资基金"预计将在一个月至一个半月内正式运作。乌方希望基金尽快启动，并将其视为促进 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the establishment of the "U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund," which is expected to be operational within one to one and a half months after approval by the Ukrainian parliament [1] - The fund was agreed upon on April 30 and has been submitted to the Ukrainian parliament for review and voting on May 8 [1] - The Ukrainian government views the fund as a crucial tool for promoting the economic recovery of Ukraine [1]

Group 1 - The Ukrainian Parliament (Verkhovna Rada) will hold a special session on May 8 to review and vote on the mineral resources agreement with the United States [1] - The agreement signed on April 30 establishes the U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, referred to as the U.S.-Ukraine mineral agreement [1]

当地时间5月2日，乌克兰第一副总理兼经济部长斯维里登科在接受乌媒采访时表示，乌克兰-美国重建 投资基金将在乌克兰最高拉达(议会)批准与美国达成的矿产协议后一个月或一个半月内开始运作。斯维 里登科表示，希望尽快启动该基金，其应成为乌经济关键部门复苏和发展的工具。此外她表示，乌克兰 寻求尽快解决与设立该基金有关的技术问题，以便该基金能够立即开始运作。(央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds aims to support the construction of major national strategies and key security capabilities, addressing the funding gap for extensive and complex projects [1][2]. Group 1: Funding Allocation and Project Scope - In 2024, China plans to allocate 700 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds for 1,465 "two major" projects, including urban underground pipeline upgrades exceeding 80,000 kilometers and sewage network renovations along the Yangtze River totaling 13,000 kilometers [1]. - The funding will also support comprehensive land management in arid regions covering nearly 40 million acres, as well as infrastructure projects such as railways, highways, and airports [1]. Group 2: Economic Policy and Leverage - The increase in ultra-long-term special government bonds is a key aspect of implementing a more proactive fiscal policy by 2025, aimed at boosting domestic demand amid economic recovery challenges [2]. - As of the end of 2024, the central and local government leverage ratios are 25.6% and 35.2%, respectively, indicating that the central government has more room for leverage compared to local governments [2]. Group 3: Investment Efficiency and Coordination - There is a need to dynamically optimize the allocation of ultra-long-term special government bonds, focusing on major strategic projects to enhance investment efficiency [3]. - A mechanism for regular evaluation and adjustment of the support scope for ultra-long-term special government bonds will be established to monitor effectiveness and inform future investment decisions [3]. Group 4: Integration of Hard and Soft Investments - The strategy emphasizes the importance of balancing "hard investments" with "soft construction," ensuring that project implementation is complemented by necessary reforms and innovations [4]. - For instance, improving the water pricing mechanism and market construction is essential to enhance the effectiveness of investments in water infrastructure projects [4]. Group 5: Diverse Funding Mechanisms - A multi-level funding mechanism will be developed to integrate central and local funds, as well as public and private investments, to maximize the overall effectiveness of funding [5]. - The strategy includes optimizing the support ratio for ultra-long-term special government bonds, potentially increasing support for significant public welfare projects to encourage local participation [5].

当地时间5月1日，乌政府在网站上公布了与美国签署的《关于建立重建投资基金的协议》文本。协议明 确乌克兰有权在本国领土、领海、专属经济区和大陆架范围内划定区域，用于自然资源勘探和开发。文 件特别指出，协议涵盖乌克兰境内多种矿产资源，以及石油、天然气和其他经双方协商确认的矿物或碳 氢化合物。 ...