证券研究报告·行业点评报告·工程机械 工程机械行业点评报告 6 月挖机内销韧性凸显，出口高景气延续 2025 年 07 月 09 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 国内市场：6 月挖掘机内销增速转正，需求韧性凸显 2025 年 6 月挖掘机销量 18804 台，同比+13%，其中国内挖机销量 8136 台，同比+6%，恢复正增长。1-6 月国内挖机累计销量 65637 台，同比+22.9%， 整体景气度向上。6 月装载机销量 12014 台，同比+11%，其中国内销量 6015 台，同比+14%。5 月国内挖机销量波动导致市场预期较低，6 月已有 所恢复，我们认为全年来看工程机械仍能够实现可观增长，主要由于：① 当前短期波动主要由于资金到位节奏：下游并非缺乏项目，而是地方政府 资金到位率的短期波动影响开工继而影响销量。展望后续，中央资金对应 的水利款项将在 2025 年持续形成支撑，地方政府资金也将随着化债压力 逐渐减小而逐步倾斜至工程开工端，农村水利带来的中小挖需求有望成为 内需韧性的核心来源。②存量更新替换需求仍在：上一轮挖机上行周期为 2015-20 ...

Core Viewpoint - CBOT corn futures fell below $4 per bushel due to concerns over demand stemming from President Trump's latest tariff measures, while crop growth conditions in the U.S. suggest potential increases in yield [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Chicago corn futures dropped by 1.7% to $3.9675 per bushel, marking the lowest level since August [1] - The decline in corn prices reflects heightened market anxiety regarding demand forecasts [1] Group 2: Government Actions - The U.S. government announced tariffs on several major agricultural trading partners, including Japan and South Korea [1] - Although tariffs were announced, Trump postponed the implementation date to August 1 [1] Group 3: Crop Conditions - Current crop growth conditions in the U.S. indicate a potential increase in corn production [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that U.S. natural gas production and demand will reach record highs by 2025, followed by a decline in 2026 [1] Industry Summary - The EIA anticipates a peak in natural gas production and demand in 2025, indicating a significant growth trend in the industry leading up to that year [1] - The expected decline in 2026 suggests potential volatility in the natural gas market, which could impact pricing and investment strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report projects an increase in U.S. crude oil demand growth to 30,000 barrels per day by 2026, up from a previous estimate of 20,000 barrels per day [1] Industry Summary - The report indicates a significant upward revision in the forecast for U.S. crude oil demand growth, reflecting a more optimistic outlook for the energy sector [1] - The increase in demand growth may influence market dynamics, pricing, and investment strategies within the oil industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of companies withdrawing their IPO applications from the ChiNext board to apply for the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) reflects a natural outcome of differentiated financing needs and competitive dynamics within the multi-tiered capital market, with BSE showing a higher tolerance for growth potential compared to the stricter requirements of the ChiNext board [1][4][5]. Group 1: Company Movements - Three biopharmaceutical companies, Beijing Beier Bioengineering Co., Ltd. (Beier Bio), Sichuan Meikang Pharmaceutical Software Research and Development Co., Ltd. (Meikang), and Shanghai Baiying Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (Baiying), have recently shifted their IPO applications from the ChiNext board to the BSE [1][4]. - Beier Bio was the first among these companies to apply for an IPO on the ChiNext board, with its application being accepted on July 13, 2020, but it withdrew its application on February 10, 2021 [4][5]. - Meikang and Baiying also had similar experiences, with their ChiNext IPO applications being accepted in June 2023 and subsequently terminated in mid-2024 [4][5]. Group 2: Market Positioning and Requirements - The BSE is positioned as a primary platform for innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, while the ChiNext board has stricter requirements, such as needing a net profit of over 50 million yuan in the last two years or a market value exceeding 1 billion yuan [5][6]. - In contrast, the BSE requires only a net profit of over 800,000 yuan in the last two years or revenue exceeding 10 million yuan in the most recent year, making it more suitable for high-growth, asset-light companies [5][6]. - The BSE's focus on niche "bottleneck" technologies and its more lenient financial standards make it attractive for companies in the technology breakthrough or market introduction phases [5][9]. Group 3: Fundraising and Financial Performance - Baiying's proposed fundraising amount for its BSE IPO is significantly reduced to 491 million yuan from 1.05 billion yuan during its ChiNext application, indicating a strategic shift in funding needs [6][7]. - Beier Bio aims to raise 537 million yuan for its BSE IPO, which is higher than its previous target of 367 million yuan on the ChiNext board [6][7]. - Meikang plans to raise the least amount among the three, with a target of 385 million yuan, down from 435 million yuan during its ChiNext application [7]. Group 4: Financial Indicators - Beier Bio reported a decline in net profit for 2024, with figures of 441.84 million yuan, 1.49 billion yuan, and 1.4 billion yuan for the years 2022 to 2024, respectively [8][9]. - Meikang also experienced a decrease in net profit, with figures of 71.60 million yuan, 95.12 million yuan, and 91.09 million yuan for the same period [8][9]. - In contrast, Baiying showed continuous growth in net profit, with figures of 57.65 million yuan, 84.02 million yuan, and 124 million yuan from 2022 to 2024 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing high volatility and mixed opinions regarding its future trajectory, particularly for the second half of 2025, influenced by geopolitical factors, central bank policies, and economic data [1][5][7]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Gold prices have shown a significant upward trend earlier this year but have entered a phase of fluctuation since mid-June, with current prices around $3,330 per ounce [1][3]. - As of July 8, 2023, COMEX gold futures were reported at $3,343 per ounce, while London spot gold was at $3,333 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Short-term factors supporting gold prices include expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases [3][5]. - Conversely, potential downward pressures include technical resistance, increased speculative trading, and weak physical demand [3][7]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - A recent survey indicated that nearly 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next year, with 95% expecting continued gold accumulation [5][6]. - China's gold reserves increased to approximately 2,298.55 tons as of June, marking the eighth consecutive month of accumulation [6]. Group 4: Economic Data and Predictions - U.S. economic data and market expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts are critical in determining gold price movements [7]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup express concerns that the anticipated rate cuts may lead to a decrease in gold prices, with Citigroup predicting a drop to between $2,500 and $2,700 per ounce by Q2 2026 [7][8]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, there is a long-term optimistic view on gold's value as a hedge against currency devaluation and inflation, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and a low-interest-rate environment [8].

高盛表示，AI芯片对光模块的配比率正在显著提升，这支撑了数据中心对高速光模块的需求，将光模块厂商2025-2027年 的净利润预测上调42%，目标价提升23%-82%。展望后续，高盛预计一线厂商估值收敛、二线厂商受益于需求外溢将成 为两大投资主线。。 硬·AI 作者 | 李笑寅 编辑 | 硬 AI 随着AI技术的迅猛发展，AI芯片与光模块的"配比率"持续提升，成为推动光模块行业增长的重要引擎。 据追风交易台消息，高盛分析师Jin Guo、Allen Chang在其最新研报中表示，AI芯片与光收发器配比率持 续上升的趋势将显著增强行业长期发展韧性。 01 配比率提升驱动下 光模块需求有强劲支撑 AI芯片与光模块的配比率提升是行业增长的核心驱动力。 报告显示，基于厂商发布的参考设计，GPU/ASIC与光收发器的配比率呈明显上升趋势。 比如，H100和GB200的配比率约为1:3（每GPU需要3个800G光收发模块），而B300提升至1:4.5，特定 ASIC训练集群甚至达到1:8。这一变化源于新芯片更高的带宽需求以及网络架构从400G向800G甚至1.6T 的升级。 报告强调， 这种趋势意味着即使AI芯片销量增长 ...

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-12 01-24 02-05 02-17 02-29 03-12 03-24 04-05 04-17 04-29 05-11 05-23 06-04 06-16 06-28 07-10 07-22 08-03 08-15 08-27 09-08 09-20 10-02 10-14 10-26 11-07 11-19 12-01 12-13 12-25 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热卷--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 | | 黑色产业数据每日监测（7.08） | | --- | - ...

报告导读： 我们判断" 430 、 531 "新政出台后，受新能源项目收益率进一步降低且不确 定性增加影响， 2025 年 1-5 月抢装过后，下半年起新能源发展将进入下半场，电煤边 际冲击减小，电煤消费的拐点或将在 2027 年出现。 投资建议 ： 近年来伴随着新能源装机高增，新能源发电量高速增长，对煤电的挤压效益日益明显，市场 担忧在新能源的挤压下未来煤电将进入负增长阶段，从而导致电煤消费进入下行通道。而我们认为新能源 高速发展时代已过， 2025 年起随着新能源" 430 、 531 "新政出台，并且考虑到当前电网巨大的消纳压 力和新能源项目盈利性下降明显，我们判断未来新能源发电将减速，对煤电的边际冲击减弱，我们测算电 煤的需求拐点或将在 2027 年。从板块推荐角度，我们推荐业绩风险释放，板块龙头企业。 报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称：新能源步入下半场，电煤压力最大已过 报告日期：2025.07.07 报告作者： 黄涛 （分析师），登记编号： S 0880515090001 邓铖琦 ( 分析师 ) ，登记编号：S 0880523050003 扫码关注 星标不迷路 ...

【聚烯烃周报】产能投放压力仍大，需求弱势 研究员：周琴 期货从业证号：F3076447 投资咨询证号：Z0015943 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | PE周度数据追踪 | 11 | | 第三章 | PP周度数据追踪 | 27 | GALAXYFUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 三季度PP、PE仍有较大产能投放压力，四季度投产节奏放缓，尤其是塑料下半年标品投产预期仅50万吨，标品投产压力较上半年明显减 轻。但并非供应收紧，上半年检修高位，下半年存量开工存回升预期，终端需求同比弱势，目前看不到能扭转需求弱势的强有力因素，因 此也缺乏上涨动力，策略上仍以逢高沽空为主。 【策略】 单边：中短期偏空思路对待。 套利：暂时观望； 期权：暂时观望。（观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据） GALAXYFUTURES 2 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | PE周度数据追踪 | 9 ...