V i e w p o i n t | 05 Jun 2025 18:23:54 ET │ 28 pages Global Macro Strategy - Views and Trade Ideas Consumer prices move first, growth fundamentals come second CITI'S TAKE Hard data in the US has finally started to soften, with a longer lag to soft data that has been in place post-COVID. Equity markets have correctly ignored this, given the backward-looking nature of data. We remain overweight equities and go long NDX/RTY trade (equity view and trade idea owned by Giammarco Miani) as the AI trade is recove ...

Core Insights - Warren Buffett will step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of this year, marking the end of an era for the investment conglomerate he has led since 1965 [1] - Berkshire Hathaway has increased its exposure to technology trends and growth stocks, particularly in the realm of artificial intelligence (AI) [2] Group 1: Berkshire Hathaway's Investment Strategy - Berkshire Hathaway has been reducing its stock holdings and increasing its cash position, reflecting concerns about market valuations relative to macroeconomic and geopolitical risks [5] - The company has significantly reduced its holdings in Apple, which may indicate specific concerns regarding the business despite Apple remaining the largest stock holding in Berkshire's portfolio [9] Group 2: Apple Inc. - Apple has a market capitalization of $3 trillion and constitutes 21.6% of Berkshire's total stock portfolio, making it the largest publicly traded company in the portfolio [4] - Apple faces challenges in the AI space, particularly with its Siri platform, which has not met performance expectations [6] - The company is also experiencing difficulties in the Chinese market, with delays in the rollout of its AI platform and soft sales for the iPhone 16 [7][8] Group 3: Amazon.com Inc. - Amazon represents a smaller percentage of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, with its investment being made by one of the portfolio's managers rather than Buffett himself [10] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is a key growth driver for the company, holding a 30% market share in cloud services and expected to be a multi-hundred-billion dollar revenue business [11][12] - AWS sales increased by 17% year over year in the first quarter, contributing significantly to Amazon's operating income [13]

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology's stock has surged 37% recently, driven by a recovery in technology stocks and the anticipated positive impact of AI on its upcoming fiscal Q3 results [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance and Guidance - Micron's fiscal Q3 guidance projects revenue of $8.8 billion, a significant increase from $6.8 billion in the same period last year [4] - Adjusted earnings are expected to rise by over 2.5 times year-over-year, with potential for exceeding guidance due to high demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI GPUs [4][9] Group 2: Demand for High-Bandwidth Memory - Micron's HBM is being utilized in Nvidia's latest GB200 and GB300 Blackwell systems, which have shown strong performance, with Nvidia's data center revenue increasing 73% year-over-year to $39 billion [5][6] - The transition to Blackwell GPUs, which feature larger HBM chips, is expected to drive further demand for Micron's products [6][7] Group 3: Pricing and Market Dynamics - Micron plans to increase HBM chip prices by 11% this year, reflecting strong demand and limited supply, with the company already sold out of its HBM capacity for 2025 [8] - The integration of HBM into more AI accelerators by other chipmakers like Broadcom and Marvell Technology is likely to expand Micron's market opportunities [9][10] Group 4: Investment Considerations - Despite the recent stock rally, Micron is trading at 23 times earnings, with a forward earnings multiple of 9, indicating strong growth potential [11] - Consensus estimates predict a 437% increase in earnings this year, followed by a 57% increase next fiscal year, with a median 12-month price target of $130 suggesting a 27% upside [12]

Amazon's (AMZN 2.77%) reach stretches wide and deep. If you're like tens of millions of Americans, you rely on it to buy essentials and other items. But even if you aren't, you might be using the websites it powers through Amazon Web Services (AWS) or watching content from its film studios (it owns MGM and operates Amazon Prime Video).Amazon stock has created incredible shareholder value over the past few years as the company has built itself into the giant it is today. But is it still a massive wealth buil ...

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its significant growth potential, solid financial health, and attractive valuation, especially as its stock is currently trading down nearly 20% from its recent high [1] Group 1: Growth Opportunities - Energy Transfer has established one of the largest integrated midstream systems in the U.S., which allows it to capitalize on rising volumes and price spreads across the energy value chain [2] - The company is focusing on growth, planning to spend approximately $5 billion in capital expenditures this year, up from $3 billion in 2024, with major projects like the Hugh Brinson pipeline aimed at meeting increasing natural gas demand [5] - Energy Transfer is also ready to make a final investment decision on its Lake Charles LNG facility, having signed a deal to fund 30% of the construction costs [6] Group 2: Financial Position - The company has improved its financial standing significantly, with its distribution now above pre-2020 levels and a leverage ratio at the low end of its target range of 4 to 4.5 times adjusted EBITDA [8] - Approximately 90% of Energy Transfer's EBITDA is expected to come from fee-based services this year, providing insulation from commodity price fluctuations [9] - The current quarterly distribution is $0.3275 per share, yielding 7.3%, with management targeting annual growth of 3% to 5% in distributions [10] Group 3: Valuation - Energy Transfer is trading at a forward enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple of just 8, significantly lower than the historical average of 13.7 for midstream MLPs between 2011 and 2016 [11]

今天分享的是：IEA国际能源署：2025年世界能源投资报告（英文版） 报告共计：255页 《IEA国际能源署：2025年世界能源投资报告》聚焦全球能源投资格局，揭示了能源转型与传统能源投资的动态变化，核心内容如下： 全球能源投资整体态势 2025年全球能源投资预计达3.3万亿美元，较2024年实际增长2%。其中，清洁能源投资（涵盖可再生能源、核能、电网等）达2.2万亿美元，占总投资的 2/3，约为化石燃料投资（1.1万亿美元）的两倍，凸显能源转型的强劲势头。不过，经济与贸易前景的不确定性使部分投资者对新项目持观望态度，但现有 项目的支出暂未受显著影响。 电力部门：转型核心引擎 电力部门成为投资重点，2025年投资预计达1.5万亿美元，较化石燃料供应投资高出50%。可再生能源主导增长，光伏投资达4500亿美元，成为最大单项投 资领域，中国光伏出口在发展中经济体市场占比显著提升，巴基斯坦2024年进口量达19GW。电池储能投资增长至660亿美元，但电网投资增速滞后，虽全 球年投入达4000亿美元，但在许可证审批、供应链瓶颈等因素制约下，难以匹配可再生能源部署速度，需向发电投资水平靠拢。核能投资五年增长50%，小 ...

Core Viewpoint - Apple is experiencing significant challenges, including a 20% decline in stock price this year, the worst performance since at least 2010, with limited catalysts for recovery in the near term due to the absence of a major iPhone upgrade cycle [1][8]. Group 1: AI and Product Development - At the upcoming WWDC, Apple's lag in artificial intelligence (AI) compared to competitors like Microsoft and Google is expected to be a major topic, highlighting the slow progress in AI and the overdue upgrade of Siri [3][6]. - Analysts note that Apple is likely to be more cautious in its presentations, avoiding overpromising on features that are not yet ready [4]. - The company is not currently monetizing its generative AI features, which could limit short-term growth as it seeks to boost hardware sales, particularly for iPhones, which have seen flat revenue for two years [6][7]. Group 2: External Pressures - Apple faces additional pressures, including tariffs that threaten hardware profit margins and scrutiny over its services division, particularly regarding App Store fees and payments from Google for being its default search engine [5][6]. - The competition is intensifying from unexpected sources, such as OpenAI's collaboration with former Apple designer Jony Ive to create new AI devices that could disrupt the smartphone market [7][8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that for Apple's stock to perform well, a catalyst such as an iPhone replacement cycle is necessary, which is not anticipated in the next 12 months [6][7]. - Despite having a loyal user base of 2.35 billion active devices, Apple’s dominance is challenged by external risks, including tariffs and legal battles, alongside its internal struggles with AI development [8].

Key Takeaways APLD secured up to $5B from Macquarie and $375M from SMBC to fund hyperscale infrastructure growth. APLD's Ellendale campus will deliver 400 MW, with the first 100MW building set to be launched in Q4 2025. APLD is exploring a REIT shift and Cloud Services exit to align with HPC and hyperscale strategy.Applied Digital (APLD) is advancing an ambitious expansion strategy to support hyperscale infrastructure, anchored by its Ellendale campus build-out and strengthened by major institutional part ...

Group 1 - The company is exploring ways to expand its customer base by making its products available in gyms and launching a peer-to-peer marketplace for used equipment [1][2] - Peloton plans to distribute its machines to commercial gyms through its subsidiary Precor and is working to integrate Peloton workouts with compatible Precor equipment [1] - The newly launched peer-to-peer marketplace, Repowered, aims to provide a more streamlined and premium experience for second-hand customers compared to traditional platforms like Facebook Marketplace [2] Group 2 - The company aims to leverage AI to enhance personalization for its members by creating individualized programs that match them with the right classes and instructors [3]

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源：内容编译自电子时报 。 尽管SpaceX尚未自行生产芯片，但据报道，该公司正在向扇出型面板级封装（FOPLP）领域扩 张，并计划在德克萨斯州建造一座芯片封装工厂。据《电子时报》报道，马斯克的公司目前大部分 芯片的封装工作都由欧洲公司意法半导体（STMicroelectronics）完成，但该公司也将无法完成的 订单转包给台湾公司群创光电（Innolux）。 然而，作为美国推动半导体独立发展的一部分，SpaceX 也在推动芯片自主生产。该公司去年在德 克萨斯州巴斯特罗普开设了美国最大的印刷电路板 (PCB) 制造工厂，旨在满足 Starlink 的需求。 这至关重要，因为它可以帮助马斯克建立一条垂直整合的卫星生产线，从而降低成本并能够根据需 要 快 速做出 调 整 。 芯 片 封 装 是 SpaceX 合乎逻辑的下一步，尤 其 是 考 虑 到 一 些 FOPLP 工艺与 PCB 制造类似，例如镀铜、激光直接成像和半加成工艺。 除了将芯片制造业务迁回美国本土之外，垂直整合对SpaceX的长期盈利能力也至关重要。其拥有 7600颗卫星的网络，是目前全球最大的在轨卫星网 ...