US consumer confidence fell in August on more concerns regarding jobs and income https://t.co/ZT0U2oOryM ...

Economic Indicators - This week features key economic data releases [1] - August 26: CB Consumer Confidence data release [1] - August 27: GfK Consumer Confidence data release [1] - August 28: GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q2 data release [1] Market Focus - The market is watching for consumer confidence and GDP growth data [1]

Consumer Confidence - South Korea's consumer confidence reached a seven-year high [1] Economic Factors - Surging stock prices and resilient exports contributed to the rise in consumer confidence [1] - Uncertainties surrounding US tariffs were offset by positive economic factors [1] Monetary Policy - The improved consumer confidence gives the central bank added incentive to maintain a steady policy this week [1]

US-Russia Relations & Diplomacy - The White House is shifting its tone on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggesting the US role is contingent on Ukraine and Russia resolving complex issues [4] - Previous promises of quick resolution to the conflict have proven difficult to achieve [3] - There is skepticism about the effectiveness of sanctions in compelling Russia to engage in a ceasefire [7] - Time benefits Putin in the current situation [12] Domestic Politics & Investigations - Investigations started under the Biden administration, emphasizing that no one is above the law [16] - The Trump administration is reportedly wanting to hold individuals accountable for alleged mortgage fraud [18] - Democrats should focus on pocketbook issues rather than Beltway issues [20] Economic Concerns & Strategy - Consumer sentiment is as low as it was in the Biden administration [21] - There are record increases in insurance rates expected to impact consumers [22] - Democrats need to lay the groundwork for an economic argument that they can do better, as people are suffering [22] - The administration is trying to rebrand its bill as a working family tax cut, emphasizing no tax on tips or overtime with limitations [25] - The stock market is not the economy, and consumer feelings are crucial, especially among independent voters who don't feel economically secure [30] - There are record defaults in credit cards and car loans, indicating a challenging economy for average people [31][32]

The home construction ETF, the ITB, is having its best day since July 22nd. Our next guest says the rally is long overdue. Let's bring in UBS home builders analyst John Lvalo.John, why is it overdue. Hey, Morgan, thanks so much for having me. Interestingly, this is sort of the next leg of a rally that began at the beginning of earning season, and it's something that we had highlighted in our preview note, and we our preview note was titled bear trap.And really what we were suggesting is that investor sentim ...

Danish consumer confidence slipped to a three-month low, with Novo’s share plunge overshadowing a robust labor market and higher purchasing power https://t.co/ZMzZ88TLsb ...

Australia’s consumer confidence surged in August after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates for the third time this year and signaled further easing is likely. https://t.co/e5zl05f0ie ...

Home builders sentiment pulling back in August as elevated mortgage rates, weak buyer traffic, ongoing supply side challenges, all weighing on the market. This comes as Warren Buffett's Bergkshire Hathaway increased its exposure to the sector last week. It did add shares of LAR.It initiated a stake as well in Dr. . Horton. Wed Bush analyst Jay McCandal joins us now.He's got his outlook for the sector. We also got some sentiment numbers at the top of the hour. Jay, despite what was a fall in mortgage rates, ...

Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations - Consumer views have worsened, reversing some improvements seen earlier, with a worsening outlook for unemployment and inflation [1] - High prices, especially for durable goods, are driving consumer concerns, leading to a pessimistic view of the future [2] - Short and long-run inflation expectations have increased, halting a previous trend of receding expectations, a concern for policymakers [4] - Tariff developments are likely contributing to consumer worries about prices and inflation [5] - A University of Michigan report indicates 58% of consumers plan to cut back on spending [8] - Over 60% of consumers expect unemployment rates to rise, nearly double the rate from the previous year [9] - Consumers lack confidence in their future incomes, making it difficult to sustain robust spending [10] Partisan Views & Interest Rates - Partisan differences persist in economic and inflation views, although both Democrats and Republicans have moderated their expectations from earlier in the year [6][7] - Republicans are more likely to expect interest rates to fall compared to Democrats and Independents [14] - Public rhetoric about rate cuts may be influencing consumer expectations, although consumers generally don't closely follow specific data or FOMC announcements [14]

Summary of Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index and Labor Market Insights Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. economy, specifically consumer confidence and labor market conditions as indicated by the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index [1][4]. Key Points 1. **Consumer Confidence Index**: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 97.2 in July from an upwardly revised 95.2, driven by an increase in the expectations sub-index, which went up to 74.4 from 69.9 [3][4]. 2. **Consumer Sentiment Improvement**: Consumer sentiment has shown improvement from recent lows, with inflation expectations decreasing, which has positively influenced business and income expectations for the next six months [4][5]. 3. **Cautious Consumer Behavior**: Despite the improvement, confidence indices remain below the levels at the beginning of the year and pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that consumers may continue to be cautious in their spending decisions [4][5]. 4. **Labor Market Differential**: The labor market differential, which measures the difference between respondents saying jobs are hard to get versus those saying jobs are plentiful, has been on a downward trend, indicating a loosening labor market. A larger share of respondents reported that jobs are hard to get in July, supporting forecasts for an increase in the unemployment rate [5][6]. 5. **Spending Growth**: Hard spending data indicates that consumer spending growth is slowing compared to last year, and this trend may continue [4][5]. Additional Insights - **Inflation Expectations**: The decline in inflation expectations has been a significant factor in improving business and income outlooks, although the overall consumer confidence remains cautious [4][5]. - **Unemployment Rate Forecast**: The report supports a forecast for an increasing unemployment rate due to the rising number of respondents indicating difficulty in finding jobs [5][6]. This summary encapsulates the essential findings and insights from the Conference Board report, highlighting the current state of consumer confidence and labor market conditions in the U.S. economy.