资金面小幅收敛，债市情绪偏弱 上周（5.12-5.18），中美关税政策的调整对全球资本市场带来正面影响，尤其是权益类市场重获资金关注，也造成了债市短期的压力，资金面出现了小幅收 敛，债市情绪偏弱。 公开数据统计，上周央行公开市场开展4860亿7天逆回购操作，到期8361亿，全周净回笼3501亿元，全周DR007围绕于1.50%波动，资金价格后半周有所抬 升。 每经记者｜任飞 每经编辑｜叶峰 上周，国债期货震荡走弱，资金面又一次出现收敛。债市情绪偏弱背景下，基金投资收益率并不理想，不过，市场中并不缺少做多的理由。总体来看，目前 影响债市的关键是不确定性因素对短期市场情绪的扰动，不过，有分析指出，利多事件的冲击对于债市的影响在今年来看是一个非常迅速的过程，债券资产 依然在年内有配置的必要和机会。 资金面是市场最为关注的因素，就目前市场的预期来看，有分析指出，预计税期资金面均衡略转紧，市场情绪整体偏弱。 根据上海东证期货的研报分析，由于中美贸易谈判进展超预期，资金面边际收敛，国债期货震荡调整，5年期到7年期品种调整幅度相对较大。 从基金的表现来看，中长期纯债基金平均业绩表现不及短债基金。Wind统计显示，短债基金上 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of port and shipping stocks driven by policy adjustments and the upcoming traditional shipping peak season, leading to a surge in stock prices and shipping indices [1][4] - The shipping index (European line) futures main contract rose to 2387 points, with a weekly increase of approximately 54% [1] - Analysts suggest that the adjustment of US-China tariff policies and the approach of the traditional shipping peak season are key drivers for the surge in the sector, with expectations of a pulse-like increase in cargo volume on Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific routes [1][4] Group 2 - Despite the sector's strong performance, several companies have issued risk warnings due to significant stock price fluctuations, with Nanjing Port announcing a cumulative price deviation of over 40% in just four trading days [2] - Lianyungang also issued multiple announcements regarding abnormal stock price fluctuations, reporting a 48.01% year-on-year decline in net profit for Q1 2025 [2][3] - Ningbo Shipping reported a significant drop in net profit for 2024, down 80.2% year-on-year, and warned investors about trading risks [3] Group 3 - The shipping and port sector has seen a strong market trend since May 14, with speculation that the tariff pause may lead to increased demand for shipping services [4] - Some analysts predict that the "rush to ship" phenomenon could drive freight rates to new highs in June, although there are concerns about the sustainability of this trend [4][5] - Current freight rates remain weak, with the Shanghai shipping exchange reporting a slight decline in rates for exports to Europe, indicating potential challenges ahead for the industry [5]

Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices showed fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing flat, the Shenzhen Component down 0.08%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.33%. Over 3,300 stocks rose in the two markets, with a total trading volume of approximately 1.09 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Shipping and Port Sector - The port and shipping sector saw significant gains, with Lianyungang (601008.SH), Nanjing Port (002040.SZ), and Ningbo Maritime (600798.SH) rising by 10%. Ningbo Ocean Shipping (601022.SH) also experienced a substantial increase [2] - Huayuan Securities noted that the 90-day US-China tariff window has triggered a surge in shipping demand on US routes, which is expected to boost both volume and price. Additionally, Asian route shipping rates may benefit from spillover effects, positively impacting related companies' performance [2] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector strengthened, with Shahe Co. (000014.SZ) rising by 10%, and Vanke A (000002.SZ), Poly Developments (600048.SH), Tianbao Infrastructure (000965.SZ), and Shibei Hi-Tech (600604.SZ) also seeing increases [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the real estate market stabilized in April due to various policies aimed at promoting recovery. Future demand for green, smart, and safe housing is expected to grow, with significant prospects for upgrading old residential areas and improving real estate construction quality [2] Group 4: Mergers and Acquisitions - Mergers and acquisitions concept stocks showed strong movements, with Guangzhi Technology (300489.SZ) and Jinlihua Electric (300069.SZ) rising by 20%, and Zongyi Co. (600770.SH), Binhai Energy (000695.SZ), and Jinhongshun (603922.SH) increasing by 10% [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission recently announced amendments to the "Management Measures for Major Asset Restructuring of Listed Companies," encouraging private equity funds to participate in mergers and acquisitions, establishing simplified review procedures, and introducing a phased payment mechanism [3] Group 5: Food Processing Sector - The food processing and manufacturing sector performed well, with Three Squirrels (300783.SZ), Liangpinpuzi (603719.SZ), Jinzhai Food (003000.SZ), and Maiqu'er (002719.SZ) all seeing increases [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly released the "Measures for Promoting and Managing the Catering Industry," which will take effect on June 15, 2025. The measures include 25 provisions aimed at promoting the industry, including support for international cooperation, digital development, and local specialty catering cultivation [4]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：矿端扰动再起 成本端支撑走强 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 19 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】 ...

研究报告 甲醇周报 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 19 日星期一 基本面改善有限，反弹还需宏观面提振 华龙期货投资咨询部 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周甲醇基本面未有实质性改善，但受宏观面利好的提振， 甲醇期货震荡反弹，截至上周五下午收盘，甲醇加权收于 2298 元/吨，较前一周上涨 2.64%。 【基本面】 上周，国内甲醇生产企业检修多于复产，甲醇供给再次下 降。需求方面，上周甲醇下游烯烃行业开工延续低位，需求预 期仍然偏弱。库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产企业库存上升，待 发订单上升，港口库存下降。利润方面，上周甲醇生产企业利 润涨跌互现。综合来看，上周甲醇基本面供需双弱，基本面没 有实质性改善。 【后市展望】 本周甲醇基本面没有实质性改变。供给端，本周甲醇生产 企业继续检修多于复产，供给或继续下降。需求端，由于烯烃 处于检修季，甲醇 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-甲醇】江苏太仓甲醇市场价2375元/吨，下降50元/ 吨 ； 甲 醇 开 工 88.47% ， 周 下 降 3.7% ； 下 游 总 产 能 利 用 率 71.01%，周下降0.48%；中国甲醇港口样本库存48.39万吨，周 下降7.8万吨；甲醇样本生产企业库存33.58万吨，周增加3.19 万吨，样本企业订单待发27.36万吨，周增加3.58万吨。评：成 本端煤炭价格预期偏弱，当前甲醇利润尚可，国内甲醇开工预 期高位运行，下游需求较稳，本周显性外轮到港量预期环比增 加，港口甲醇库存或累库。内地甲醇市场偏弱，企业竞拍成交 一般，港口甲醇市场现货基差企稳，商谈成交一般。预计甲醇 09合约短期震荡偏弱运行，下方支撑2265一线，建议观望或回 调短线做多。 【短评-黄金】美联储主席鲍威尔在一份备忘录中表示，美 联储计划在未来几年将员工人数削减10%，包括为一些年长员工 提供延迟辞职的选择。评：美联储面临裁员问题，并且上周鲍 威尔对美联储未来政策框架提出新的假设，美联储降息问题将 变得更加扑朔迷离。黄金将陷入高位震荡，关注黄金和白银是 否走分化行情。 姓名：蒯三可 投资咨询中心 2 ...

2025年05月17日 证券研究报告|策略研究|策略点评 作者 董忠云 分析师 SAC 执业证书：S0640515120001 联系电话:010-59562478 邮箱：dongzy@avicsec.com 符肠 分析师 SAC 执业证书：S0640514070001 联系电话:010-59562469 邮箱:fuyyjs@avicsec.com 庞晨 研究助理 SAC 执业证书:S0640124040009 联系电话: 邮箱:pangc@avicsec.com 王警仪 研究助理 SAC 执业证书：S0640123090015 联系电话: 邮箱：wangjybj@avicsec.com 杨子萌 SAC 执业证书:S0640124060008 联系电话: 邮箱:yangzm@avicsec.com 相关研究报告 中航策略周报:《中美关税战或进入拉锯战 阶段,沿政策发力方向布局》 中航策略周报:《二季度国内对冲政策有望 提速,沿政策发力方向布局》 中航策略周报:《强化底线思维,谋定而后 动,哑铃风格有望回归》 中航策略周报:《4月政治局会议临近,政策 博弈线索有哪些》 中航策略周报:《复盘上轮贸易摩擦,本轮 中方 ...

Market Overview - Major indices experienced fluctuations and closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.36%, while the North Exchange 50 Index rose by 1.32% [1] - The port and shipping sector continued to show strength, with Nanjing Port and Ningbo Maritime both achieving five consecutive trading limits. Following the adjustment of tariffs between China and the U.S., shipping demand surged, with average booking volumes for container transport soaring by 277% [1] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector showed robust performance, with several stocks such as Konggang Co., Ltd. and Shahe Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit. The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have begun to show effects, with transaction prices stabilizing and increased activity in some first- and second-tier cities [1][4] - A total of 32 stocks in the ST sector also reached their daily limit, indicating strong market interest [4] Mergers and Acquisitions - The mergers and acquisitions concept saw significant gains, with stocks like Guangzhi Technology and Xiamen Port reaching their daily limits. This surge was influenced by the recent announcement from the China Securities Regulatory Commission regarding amendments to the management measures for major asset restructuring of listed companies [2][5] Individual Stock Performance - Among the tradable A-shares, over 2900 stocks rose while 2305 fell, with 93 stocks hitting the daily limit and only one stock hitting the lower limit. New listings included N Taili, which opened with a 163.93% increase, and N Weigao, which opened with an 88.64% increase [3] - The average market capitalization of stocks that hit the daily limit was 5.6 billion, with 42 stocks having a market capitalization below 3 billion [6] Sector Highlights - The real estate, power equipment, and construction decoration sectors had the highest number of stocks hitting the daily limit, with 11, 8, and 6 stocks respectively [3] - The port and shipping sector, along with the real estate sector, showed significant activity, with multiple stocks achieving consecutive trading limits [1][4]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡 | 多空交织，油价盘整。美伊核问题谈判取得进展，地缘缓和；中美关税超预期下降，宏 | | | | 观面改善，市场风险偏好上升；OPEC+扩产，油价上方空间有限。SC【455-475】 | | LPG | 震荡 | 成本端原油反弹 VS 下游需求不佳，LPG 震荡调整。成本端原油反弹，供需基本面偏空， | | | | 下游利润不佳，PDH 开工率下降，港口库存连续累库。PG【4240-4285】 | | L | 5 震荡 | 月下旬装置检修计划增多，叠加短期出口补库支撑，预期盘面区间震荡；中期看，高投 | | | | 产周期压制反弹空间，关注高空机会。L【7200-7350】 | | PP | 5 震荡 | 月下旬装置计划检修偏少叠加月内存新装置投产计划，供给充沛，内需淡季，基本面供 | | | | 需格局偏弱，反弹偏空。PP【7080-7155】 | | PVC | 震荡 | 本周装置重启计划增多，开工存上行预期，地板出口预期好转，盘面低估值支撑。高开 | | | | 工叠加弱内需压制反弹高度，关注 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-05-19 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2509：2860至2920区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆窄幅震荡，新季美国大豆种植天气有利和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关 口上方震荡等待中美关税战后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕横盘震 荡，5月进口大豆到港增多和未来美豆进口或恢复，但油厂豆粕库存处于低位现货偏强支 撑期货盘面底部，整体或维持震荡偏弱格局。中性 2.基差：现货2920（华东），基差21，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存10.12万吨，上周8.21万吨，环比增加23.26%，去年同期55.92万吨， 同比减少81 ...