2025年07月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | 【基本面跟踪】 | 镍：上方弹性受限，镍价低位承压 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：库存轻微消化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：震荡运行，关注后续仓单体量 | 4 | | 工业硅：情绪扰动增加 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注政策端落地情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 9 日 镍：上方弹性受限，镍价低位承压 不锈钢：库存轻微消化，钢价修复但弹性有限 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 120,370 | -170 | -350 | 2,920 | -1,830 | 1 ...

【玻璃现货行情】 玻璃：沙河成交均价1100元/吨上下。 【供需】 截至2025年7月3日，全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.78万吨，比26日+0.64%。本周（20250627-0703）全国浮 法玻璃产量110.34万吨，环比+1.15%，同比-7.46%。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 【分析】 玻璃：前期相关政策扰动，市场对于玻璃有减产预期带动盘面大幅反弹。盘面情绪带动现货端大幅好 转，叠加月初授信，产销走强，基差结构激发了部分投机需求，关注持续性以及是否能形成正反馈。当 前处于夏季梅雨淡季，深加工订单偏弱，lowe开工率持续偏低，玻璃刚需端有一定压力，长远看最终行 业需要产能出清来解决过剩困境，因此还需等待更多冷修兑现或能带来盘面真正的反转。盘面反弹后市 场认为利多有限，近日重新 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/09 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/02 125 1917 81550 25097 -740.05 287.80 30.0 48.0 96.20 93250 31900 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 2025/07/07 100 1001 84589 21682 -1002.36 174.64 29.0 63.0 79.80 97400 36875 2025/07/08 80 1048 84589 19109 -844.96 44.77 29.0 63.0 51.31 102500 37100 变化 -20 47 0 - ...

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 9 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩 ...

文字早评 2025/07/09 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 宏观消息面： 1、美财长称未来数周拟与中方会谈 推动中美贸易等议题磋商。 2、北方稀土：6 月份稀土产品出口接单有了一定的恢复 公司对未来稀土价格走势持乐观看法。 3、乘联分会：6 月全国乘用车市场零售 211 万辆 同比增长 18.6%。 4、关于硅料收储 通威股份回应：没有更确切消息。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.40%/-0.85%/-1.00%/-1.92%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.33%/-1.19%/-2.00%/-4.15%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.44%/-1.53%/-2.68%/-5.62%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.52%/-0.71%/-0.71%/-0.70%。 交易逻辑：海外方面，近期主要关注点在美国对各国征收关税带来的影响。国内方面，重点关注 7 月份 "中央政治局会议"预期。当前国债利率处于低位，股债收益比较高，淤积在金融系统的资金有望流入 高收益资产，经济也有望在众多政策的助力下企稳。建议逢低做多与经济高度相关的 IH 或者 IF 股指期 货，亦可择机做多 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-07-09 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3063 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 2 元/吨（0.065%）。当日注册仓单 44905 吨, 环比增加 8464 吨。主力合约持仓量为 216.8547 万手，环比减少 28783 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3160 元/吨, 环比持平; 上海汇总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比持平。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘价为 3191 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 0 元/吨（0%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比持平。主力合约持仓量为 159.3691 万手，环比增加 8136 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lier Chemical is expected to significantly increase its profitability in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 265 million to 275 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 185.24% to 196.00% due to rising prices and sales of its core product, glyphosate, alongside cost optimization efforts [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2023, Lier Chemical's revenue was 7.851 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.55% year-on-year, and the net profit was 604 million yuan, down 66.68% [2]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.311 billion yuan, a decline of 6.88% year-on-year, with a net profit of 215 million yuan, a drop of 64.34% [2]. - The company anticipates a strong recovery in 2025, with a significant increase in net profit driven by improved market conditions and strategic initiatives [2][3]. Group 2: Product and Market Dynamics - The price of glyphosate remains low, but the price of Lier Chemical's other core product, glufosinate, has rebounded from 23,500 yuan per ton in April 2025 to 25,500 yuan per ton by July 7, 2025, marking an increase of 8.5% [3]. - The company has expanded its market share in key regions such as Brazil and Argentina through a dual strategy of targeting large clients and overseas registrations [3]. - Domestic demand for glufosinate is rapidly increasing due to the promotion of genetically modified crops, supporting the company's production capacity growth [3]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - Lier Chemical has established seven production bases in China, enhancing its competitive edge and ensuring a stable global supply chain [1][4]. - The company holds over 50% market share in glufosinate domestically and approximately 30% globally, benefiting from economies of scale [4]. - As of 2024, Lier Chemical's production capacities include 86,300 tons for active ingredients, 81,200 tons for formulations, and 123,500 tons for chemical products, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 43.4%, 36.2%, and 50.6% [4]. - The company is also pursuing acquisitions to further expand its industry chain, including a proposed acquisition of Shandong Huimeng Biotechnology Co., Ltd. [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant challenges in its photovoltaic business, with a notable decline in revenue and profitability, particularly in solar cell backsheet products, which have seen a drastic drop in sales and margins due to increased market competition and price reductions [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.485 billion yuan, a nearly 30% decrease year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 62 million yuan, marking two consecutive years of losses [1][2]. - The revenue from solar cell backsheet products plummeted by 76%, with a gross margin dropping by 20 percentage points to -18.13% [1][2]. Inventory and Impairment - As of June 30, 2025, the company identified further impairment signs in its photovoltaic-related inventory, estimating a potential impairment amount not exceeding 3 million yuan, which will be disclosed in the 2025 semi-annual report [1][5]. - The ending inventory balance stood at 308 million yuan, with the provision for inventory impairment increasing from 5.18% at the beginning of the period to 5.58% at the end [1][5]. Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - The solar photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with a 40% drop in component bidding prices and a 33.9% decrease in export value for photovoltaic products [2][3]. - The market for solar cell backsheet products is shrinking, with the share of single-glass components using these products dropping from 60% to 15% [2][3]. Customer and Revenue Analysis - The company’s main customers in the photovoltaic sector have also reported significant declines in revenue and profits, impacting the company's sales [3][4]. - The company operates on a direct transaction model with photovoltaic module manufacturers, which has been adversely affected by the overall market conditions [3][4]. Cost Structure and Pricing - The cost structure for solar cell backsheet products shows that over 70% of costs are attributed to materials, with transportation costs increasing due to geographical factors, adding approximately 0.4 yuan per square meter compared to competitors [5][6]. - The average selling price of solar cell backsheet products has decreased by 20% year-on-year, further squeezing margins [5][6]. Strategic Adjustments - In response to the challenging market environment, the company is optimizing its product structure by ceasing production of unprofitable solar cell backsheet products and actively developing new products [5][6]. - The company is also expanding into new business areas, including high-performance separation membranes, aligning with national carbon neutrality goals [6][7].

上述内容详见公司 2025 年 4 月 22 日刊登在《证券时报》 《中国证券报》 《上海证券报》 《证券日报》及巨潮资讯网 www.cninfo.com.cn 上的相关公告（公告编号：2025-019）。 证券代码：002489 证券简称：浙江永强 公告编号：2025-030 浙江永强集团股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误 导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、对外投资概述 浙江永强集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年4月18日召开第六届董事会 第二十四次会议审议并通过，增加对全资子公司永强（香港）有限公司（以下简称"香港 永强"）的投资，追加投资额不超过1亿美元，并授权香港永强根据其公司及子公司的经营 情况及资金需求，择机对其子公司进行增加投资或进行其他对外投资等。 注册资本：2.52亿泰铢 股权结构：新加坡永强持股 90%，香港永强持股 10%。 香港永强与其全资子公司 JJD INVEST PTE. LTD.（以下简称"新加坡永强"）于 2025 年 2 月在泰国共同投资设立子公司 JJD 金属家具（泰国）有限公司（以下简称"泰国永强"）， 泰国永 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing severe price competition, leading to significant losses for companies, prompting a call for "anti-involution" measures to ensure sustainable development and product quality improvement [1][3][10]. Industry Overview - The Central Economic Committee has mandated the regulation of low-price competition in the photovoltaic sector, aiming to enhance product quality and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity [1][10]. - The photovoltaic sector has seen a strong rebound in stock prices since early July, with companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Longi Green Energy experiencing significant gains [1]. Financial Performance - Longi Green Energy reported a revenue of 82.58 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 36.23%, with losses exceeding 8.6 billion yuan, marking a staggering drop of 180.15% [3][6]. - The gross margin for Longi's silicon wafer and rod segments was reported at -14.31%, a decline of 30.19%, while the module and battery segments had a gross margin of only 6.27%, down 12.11% [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to excessive competition and price drops that have resulted in many companies operating at a loss [3][7]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has significantly decreased, with a 24% drop for 2.0mm glass and an 18% drop for 3.2mm glass expected in the first half of 2025 [7][10]. Production Adjustments - In response to the ongoing price competition, major photovoltaic glass manufacturers have agreed to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July [8][10]. - Many silicon wafer manufacturers are also planning to cut their operating rates by approximately 40% to mitigate losses and stabilize prices [10]. Regulatory Response - The manufacturing sector's recent meetings have emphasized the need for comprehensive governance of low-price competition and the promotion of product quality to achieve healthy and sustainable industry growth [1][10].