Core Viewpoint - Moody's maintains Israel's long-term local and foreign currency rating at Baa1, warning that direct military conflict with Iran will further increase fiscal pressure [1] Group 1: Rating and Fiscal Pressure - Moody's indicates that geopolitical risks have led to a weakening of Israel's fiscal situation since October 2023 [1] - The agency expects Israel's debt-to-GDP ratio to peak at around 75% in the medium term due to increased defense spending and slowing economic growth [1] - Prior to the onset of military conflict with Iran, Moody's had projected this ratio to peak at 70% [1]

Core Insights - The introduction of the "Inspection Code" in Shanghai aims to optimize the business environment by reducing redundant inspections and enhancing regulatory efficiency [1][2][3] - The "Inspection Code" serves as a digital tool that transforms the relationship between regulators and regulated entities, fostering a two-way accountability mechanism [2][3] Group 1: Implementation and Mechanism - The "Inspection Code" consolidates multiple inspection tasks, significantly decreasing occurrences of redundant and arbitrary inspections [1] - A standardized model for administrative inspections has been developed, creating a unified technical standard and bridging gaps in early fragmented information systems [1][3] - The system allows for automatic coordination of inspection tasks among various departments, streamlining the process into a single, efficient joint inspection [1][3] Group 2: Regulatory Philosophy and Goals - The initiative aims to shift from a passive "problem-finding" approach to a proactive "risk-prevention" strategy, enhancing regulatory effectiveness [2] - Shanghai is developing a "risk + credit" graded regulatory model that assesses industry risks and enterprise credit status, allowing for tailored regulatory measures [2] - Enterprises with low risk and good credit will be included in a "no-feel regulation" list, minimizing on-site inspections and disruptions [2] Group 3: Broader Implications and National Impact - The "Inspection Code" serves as a model for nationwide regulatory innovation, emphasizing top-level design and cross-departmental information sharing [3] - The initiative aims to expand the "no-feel" regulation scope while ensuring compliance with safety and environmental standards [3] - By continuously promoting technological innovation and institutional reform, the initiative seeks to create a safer, more regulated, and prosperous market ecosystem [3]

穆迪：确认以色列的BAA1评级，维持负面展望。 ...

摘要 2025 年二季度央行货币政策显著转向配合财政政策，资金中枢下移， 但信贷边际变化和央行态度将影响资金宽松持续性，7 月中下旬税期带 来流动性压力，预计三季度信贷增长偏离宏观运行轨道概率不高，货币 政策难完全宽松。 三季度地方政府专项债和国债总供给量预计 1.1-1.2 万亿，八九月份增 至 1.4-1.5 万亿，央行或买国债应对流动性问题，政策性金融工具杠杆 效应或收敛，低于 2022 年水平。 2025 年保险资金因寿险保费增速放缓，对纯债需求减少，下半年难有 作为；自营类资产也面临类似情况，需关注品种差异和结构性机会，寻 找适合配置的新增量资金。 当前利率曲线空间节奏需后移，降息预期或在 9 月后形成。信用供给释 放有限，关注科创板块等特定领域，需深入挖掘结构性机会，10 年国债 标尺券空间若不打开，将限制利率曲线发展。 2025 年农商行交易活跃度下降，低利率高波动环境下，投资者更多权 衡不同取向和战略选择，而非频繁交易。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）市场流动性状况如何，央行货币政策对市场有何影响？ 固收 债市或仍在做多窗口 20250707 今年（2025 年），市场流动性状况总体上呈现易松难 ...

Group 1 - The first batch of 10 Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs (科创债ETF) was officially launched on July 7, marking a significant milestone in capital market services for technological innovation [1][2] - These ETFs provide conservative investors with a low-volatility tool to participate in the technology sector, offering high liquidity and low credit risk, making them a stable choice during periods of interest rate fluctuations [1][2] - The launch of these ETFs is supported by strong institutional and individual investor demand for asset allocation, particularly in the context of a slowing global economy and declining traditional investment product yields [2][3] Group 2 - The introduction of Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs fills a gap in the bond index products for the technology sector, enhancing the variety of credit bond ETFs available [3] - As of June 2025, the stock of Science and Technology Innovation bonds is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan, with 1.35 trillion yuan in exchange-traded Science and Technology Innovation company bonds [3][4] - Regulatory measures are being implemented to support the issuance and liquidity of Science and Technology Innovation bonds, which will further enhance the market capacity for these ETFs [3][6] Group 3 - The bond ETF market has seen unprecedented growth, with the total domestic bond ETF market size reaching 350 billion yuan, nearly doubling since the beginning of 2024 [5][6] - The advantages of credit bond ETFs, such as low fees, high transparency, and efficient trading mechanisms, have made them increasingly attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [6][7] - The growth of credit bond ETFs is expected to continue, driven by favorable policies and the increasing demand for diversified investment options [6][7]

欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： 供稿：德宏税务 来源云南税务 欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： 温馨提醒：蓝色柳林财税室为非官方平台，是由编者以学习笔记形式建立的平台，所有笔记写作记录的文章及转发的法律法规仅供读者学习 参考之用，并非实际办税费的标准，欢迎交流学习，共同分享学习经验成果。文章版权归原作者所有，如有不妥，请联系删除。 税务机关对涉税专业服务实行分类管理。 涉税专业服务包括一般涉税专业服务和特定涉 税专业服务。 船洗税专业服 其他税务事项代办 其他税务代理 特定涉税专业服务 税务合规计划 洗税鉴证 纳税情况宙查 ③ 涉税专业服务需要报送 0) 哪些信息? 何时报送? 税务机关应当加强对涉税专业服务机构 及涉税服务人员的实名制管理，涉税专业服 务机构及涉税服务人员应当以真实身份提供 涉税专业服务。 涉税专业服务机构应当于首次提供涉税 专业服务前，如实向税务机关报送机构及其 涉税服务人员的基本信息，并根据实际情况 及时更新相关信息。 依照法律法规、部门规章规定提供涉税 专业服务的其他人员，应当于首次提供服务 前，向户籍所在地、经常居住地或者提供服 务所在地的主管税务机关如实报送本人的基 本信息。 涉税专业服务机构及 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 信用"压利差"行情或延续 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 7 月信用债市场在增量资金驱动下或延续"压利差"行情，保险、理财等增量资金入场或将提 振需求，尤其利好中长久期中低评级品种。保险预定利率下调预期、理财跨季回流及净值化整 改进度过半或释放增量配置需求。资金面宽松与信用债 ETF 扩容构成支撑，中长久期券种因利 差收窄空间较大而表现较优，但需警惕行情过热后的估值波动风险。整体来看，结构性机会明 确，但需关注政策动向及资金面变化，建议布局增量资金目标品种并控制资质下沉边界。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 信用"压利差"行情或延续 [Table_Summa] 增量资金逻辑下，信用"压利差"行情或延续 7 月保险、理财等增量资金入场或将提振信用债需求，尤其利好中低 ...

保险行业 2025 年信用风险展望 作者：金融评级一部 谢冰姝 谷金钟 保险行业 2025 年信用风险展望 联合资信 金融评级一部 |谢冰姝 谷金钟 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 2024 年，人身险公司保费收入保持增长，保费收入增长主要靠寿险业务拉动；车 险仍为财产险公司最主要险种，同时多元化产品策略为财产险公司业务拓展开辟新的 发展空间；保险业资金运用余额保持增长，投资资产结构基本稳定，债券资产为主要 配置品种，受资本市场波动以及会计准则切换综合影响，行业综合投资收益率水平同 比显著提升；盈利方面，受新准则实施、资本市场回暖等综合因素影响，2024 年人身 险及财产险公司净利润同比均实现良好增长，但行业的主要利润实现仍集中于头部大 型保险公司；得益于内源性资本补充能力的增强以及外源性资本补充工具的合理运用， 2024 年行业偿付能力有所提升并保持充足水平。2025 年一季度，受预定利率的持续 下调及分红型产品市场接受度有待提升等因素的影响，人身险公司原保险保费收入较 去年同期略有下滑；财产险公司原保险保费收入稳步增长，产品结构相对稳定。 另一方面，2024 年以来，人身险公司逐步集中进 ...

以下文章来源于中欧基金 ，作者爱研究的欧欧 中欧基金 . 用长期业绩说话 而另一方面，虽然近期中东地缘冲突有所缓和，但资本市场对于黄金投资的热度却并未停歇，当前金价持 续在高位震荡，普通投资者该如何把握黄金投资的最核心逻辑？当前黄金投资又会面临哪些机遇和风险？ 此次， 我们邀请到了深耕黄金领域的中欧基金权益研究部副总监、基金经理任飞，以及重仓黄金10年的资 深投资者杨晓磊，共话三代人的黄金故事，一起探讨当前黄金投资的正确打开方式。 任飞： 若想读懂中国人血脉里的黄金情结，不妨先将目光投向上海局门路600号——诞生于1983年的卢工邮币卡市 场。作为全国最大的邮币卡市场之一，"卢工"不仅见证了无数黄金交易的精彩瞬间，更封存着上一代"老克 勒"们抢购"熊猫金币"的鲜活记忆。 黄金的故事也从未停止过书写：从2013年中国大妈单季豪购300吨黄金震动华尔街，到如今新一代年轻人将 黄金视为"翻身信仰"，三代人用不同的方式，讲述着中国人对黄金一脉相承的笃信。 中国人对黄金并不陌生，甚至有一些情怀和信仰在，比如在婚嫁、生育等重要时刻都会将金饰作为送礼的 最优选。我读的是国际金融专业，所以黄金作为一类偏宏观研究的大类资产，我 ...

Group 1 - The first round of ceasefire negotiations in Doha, Qatar, ended without agreement due to Israel's lack of sufficient authorization to discuss key issues such as ceasefire duration and prisoner release [2][3] - Israel's negotiating team was only authorized to discuss humanitarian aid distribution, which limited the scope of the talks [3] - The proposed ceasefire plan by Qatar required Hamas to release 10 Israeli captives and return 18 bodies within 60 days, while Israel insisted on retaining the right to resume military actions [3][5] Group 2 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's meeting with President Trump is focused on the Gaza ceasefire, Iran issues, and normalization of relations with Arab countries, with market attention on potential concessions from Trump regarding tariffs and military aid [2][6] - The meeting is the third between Trump and Netanyahu in six months, with three main focal points: specific terms of the Gaza ceasefire, Iran nuclear issues, and tariff policies [6] - Israel has reportedly rejected Hamas's demand for a "permanent ceasefire," preferring a phased temporary ceasefire instead [6] Group 3 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes are expected to be a key market catalyst, with a high probability of maintaining interest rates in July and a significant chance of a rate cut in September [7] - Long-term concerns about the U.S. dollar's credit risk are highlighted by the rising federal debt-to-GDP ratio and the declining share of the dollar in global reserves [9] - Geopolitical developments, including the Gaza ceasefire negotiations and the outcomes of the Trump-Netanyahu meeting, are likely to influence gold price fluctuations in the short term [9]