黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-11 政策提振情绪，黑色大幅上行 钢材：政策提振情绪，钢价大幅上行 市场分析 昨日钢材期货大幅上行，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3123元/吨，涨幅1.96%，热卷主力合约收于3262元/吨，涨幅2.26%。 现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏好，现货成交达11.5万吨。 近期各项政策组合拳预期发酵，尤其是持续发酵的"防内卷"政策，不断改善商品市场情绪。最新钢联数据显示， 钢材总产量下滑，其中建材及板材产量下降明显，厂库微增，社库微降，淡季去库。整体看，当前钢材需求淡季， 但淡季成材累库不明显，成材内外需消费韧性较强，目前钢材基本面表现不弱。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格大幅上涨。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于763.5元/吨，涨幅3.67%。 现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格偏强运行，贸易商报价积极性一般，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多 以刚需为主。本期日均铁水产量239.81万吨，环比降低1.04万吨。昨日全国主港铁矿累计成交91.3万吨，环比下跌 3.08%；远期现货：远期现货累计成交79.0万吨（6笔），环比下跌49.36%(其 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the global refined oil transportation market is expected to experience a recovery in 2025, with the company's quarterly performance anticipated to improve sequentially [3][5] - The company is the only refined oil transportation company listed in A-shares, and its profitability has significantly increased over the past three years, with expectations for continued high profitability in 2025 [2][3] - The global refinery relocation trend is expected to benefit the industry, leading to a potential recovery in dividend distribution and accelerated shareholder returns [4][5] Group 2 - The report on Steady Medical indicates that the company is expected to maintain its earnings forecast, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 being 1.77, 2.18, and 2.49 yuan respectively [6][7] - The cotton soft towel and sanitary napkin business of the company is expected to see significant revenue growth in 2024, attributed to strategic transformations in product, channel, and brand marketing [7][8] - The company is focusing on high-quality product positioning and expanding its online and offline channels, which is expected to enhance brand visibility and drive revenue growth [8][27] Group 3 - The durable consumer goods industry report emphasizes the successful path of IQOS, highlighting the importance of product strength, marketing, and channel synergy in establishing brand value [9][10] - The Japanese market for HNB products has reached a penetration rate of over 40%, with significant growth potential as traditional cigarette markets shrink [9][11] - The report suggests that the competitive landscape in the HNB market is evolving, with major brands actively participating in market cultivation, leading to accelerated industry expansion [9][10] Group 4 - The military industry report indicates that the ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to drive long-term growth in the military sector, with increased defense spending expected [23][24] - Recent military agreements, such as the tank export deal between South Korea and Poland, highlight the strengthening of military cooperation and the potential for significant military sales contracts [25][26] - The report recommends various companies within the military sector, focusing on assembly, components, and systems, as the industry is poised for growth amid rising defense demands [26][27]

Group 1 - The securities sector is experiencing a significant rally due to market recovery and the concept of stablecoins, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, reaching a new high for the year [1] - The Securities ETF (512880) surged by 3%, with a net inflow exceeding 1 billion yuan in the past 10 days, and its current scale surpassing 31.2 billion yuan, ranking first among similar products [1] - Guosheng Jin控预计 its net profit for the first half of 2025 to be between 150 million and 220 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 236.85% to 394.05% [1] - Hadao股份预计 its net profit for the first half of 2025 to be 380 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 233.1%, and a non-recurring net profit of 361 million yuan, up 436.5% [1] Group 2 - A-share IPO approvals saw explosive growth in the first half of the year, with a total of 177 companies approved, an increase of 148 from the previous year, marking a growth rate of 510.3% [2] - In June alone, 150 companies were approved, accounting for 84.75% of the total, with June 30 seeing a record 41 approvals in a single day [2] - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from the market recovery and favorable policies, leading to further valuation recovery in the brokerage sector [2] Group 3 - Hong Kong has introduced a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins, with several companies applying for stablecoin licenses, indicating regulatory support for the business [2] - The frequency of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry has increased since 2024, reflecting regulatory policies aimed at enhancing industry concentration [2] - Notable mergers include Guolian + Minsheng, Zheshang + Guodu, and Ping An + Fangzheng, indicating a trend towards "strong alliances" or "regional collaboration" [2] Group 4 - Through mergers and restructuring, resource integration among companies with similar shareholders is expected to accelerate, enhancing profitability in the industry [3] - The policy support for building a strong financial nation through mergers and acquisitions is a long-term logic that should not be overlooked in the valuation of the securities industry [3] - The Securities ETF (512880) tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, providing exposure to major securities firms in A-shares, with a current scale exceeding 30 billion yuan and superior liquidity [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-11 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8700-8800（0）元/吨；421#硅在9000-9200 （50）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8200-8400（100）元/吨，99硅价格在8100-8300（50）元/吨。 SMM统计7月10日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计55.1万吨，较上周环比减少0.1万吨。其中社会普通仓库12.4万吨， 较上周环比减少0.2万吨，社会交割仓库42.7万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比增加0.1万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10300-10600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，本周国内DMC底部价格小幅上调至 10700元/吨，华东单体企业本周报价10700元/吨，较上周上涨400元/吨，其他单体企业报价上调至11000元/吨左右。 在此带动下，DMC下游各产品价格有小幅上调。 策略 基本面短期稍有好转，供应端西北大厂减产，西南开工低于往年，消费端环比有一定提升。但行业总库存水平较 高，反弹后有套保压力，且短期停产企业及西南丰水期均有复产可能，终端消费并未改善，基本面偏弱。工业硅 期货 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 7 月 11 日星期五 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-11） | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石盘面受情绪影响低位反弹，矿山季末冲量基本结束，澳 洲和巴西发运量均有一定程度下降，近端到港量也环比下行，后续供应依 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 然宽松。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍 | | | 铁矿石 | 上行 | 旧在去库，240 以上的高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水见顶情 | | | | | 况。供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。中 | | | | | 长期看，铁矿石中长期看整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对低位、港口库 | | | | | 存步入累库通道的局面，供需过剩格局不变，介于短期情绪扰动，短期大 | | | | | 幅拉涨并突破 740 元/吨一线，短期偏强为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。 | | | 煤焦 | 上行 | 消息面传出部分地区焦企或将复产 ...

港股通50ETF跟踪的是国证港股通50（港币）指数，该指数由深圳证券信息有限公司编制，从港股通可 投资范围内选取在香港交易所上市的大中型企业证券作为指数样本，覆盖金融、科技、消费等多个行业 领域，重点筛选具有市场代表性和良好流动性的成分股。指数采用大盘价值与成长风格相结合的配置策 略，全面反映通过港股通渠道投资的香港主板优质企业的整体表现，为投资者提供多元化的港股市场参 与工具。 东方财富证券指出，港股通50（港币）行业受多重因素影响。短期来看，金管局回收港元流动性导致流 动性边际收紧预期，压制港股表现，尤其是互联网科技板块在电商领域价格竞争加剧，盈利预期快速下 修，拖累整体市场。中期来看，全球流动性充裕背景下，港股仍是价值洼地，维持"震荡慢牛"格局判 断。政策方面，"反内卷"政策推进有望加快落后产能退出，改善相关行业ROE水平，对钢铁、建材、电 力设备及新能源等板块形成催化。此外，恒生科技、互联网、云计算、创新药等板块的ERP已修复至高 位，而高股息板块配置性价比短期下行但中长期价值仍在。行业轮动中可关注半导体设备、电池、工业 金属等边际改善机会。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月11日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价下行，布伦特09合约跌1.85%。特朗普威胁对巴西关税加征比例自4月初版本的10% 提升至50%，对等关税政策的反复仍令经济及油品需求面临不确定性。有消息称OPEC+9月完成释放 216.4万桶/天自愿减产额度后将暂停增产，但产量的回归及四季度需求环比回落仍将令供需承压。 旺季实货端编强表现暂对市场构成支撑,但布伦特突破70美元/桶后的进一步上行空间亦受限。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡。美联储6月会议纪要显示官员对降息看法分化，多数官员倾向于保持观望,特朗普 继续施压美联储应降息。美国关税执行截止日前不确定性仍强，风险情绪可能反复，贵金属延续震 荡。 【铜】 隔夜铜价震荡,市场继续关注特朗普关税消息，暂美股市场倾向"TACO"交易情绪。美国加征关 税，未来全球废铜贸易货源争抢将更紧张，市场也关注欧元区废旧金属出口政策。国内现铜报 78615元，上海升水降至15元,精度价差急降。特朗普关税言论压力再次放大,正逢国内谈季,可 能进一步打开跌势，空头持有参与。 (铝) 隔夜沪铝延续偏强震荡。近期产业淡季 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 观点参考 观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。6 月下旬以来，股指反弹较为明显，主要驱动力量来自于对 下半年的政策利好预期，包括对"反内卷"政策将会 ...

行 业 及 产 业 电力设备/ 光伏设备 2025 年 07 月 11 日 硅料硅片价格跳涨，反内卷催化产 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 马天一 A0230525040004 maty@swsresearch.com 研究支持 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 联系人 李冲 (8621)23297818× lichong@swsresearch.com ⚫ 硅料价格持续上涨，目前已经抬升至头部企业完全成本附近。在反内卷与行业自律的持 续推动下，硅料价格不断上涨，据测算行业头部硅料企业的完全成本在 4.2~5.1 万/吨 之间，目前现货报价已经接近 4.5 万/吨，按目前价格测算，部分企业单吨盈利已经达 到 3000 元。本轮反内卷为自上而下推行，在强约束下，预计涨价不会推动硅料开工率 提升，因此后续在行业自律和反内卷预期下，硅料价格有望持续上涨。 ⚫ 产业链价格开始逐级向下传导，后续有望看到组件价格提升。目前除了硅料报价提升之 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计全国247家钢厂样本：焦炭日均 产量47.46增0.03，产 能利用率87.52%增 0.06%；焦 炭库存 637.49增9.74，焦炭可用天数11.52天增0.30天；炼焦煤库存 789.6增8.39，焦煤可用天数12.51天增0.12天；喷吹煤库存 405.5减1.11，喷吹可用天数11.83天增0.03天。（单位：万 吨）评：从产业来看，焦煤短期基本面并无明显好转，甚至7月 份供应端存边际增长的预期。不过，受到美国推延关税豁免期 和国内"反内卷整治"等消息面利多带动，市场氛围持续好 转，带动期货价格向上反弹。整体来看，现阶段市场氛围良 好，短期预计焦煤期货维持偏强运行，继续关注相关政策动 态。 【短评-烧碱】 山东32%液碱820元/吨，环比上日+10元/ 吨；山东液碱暂稳，液氯价格稳定，氯碱利润-62元/吨；烧碱 周度产能利用率80.4%，环比-0.1%；液碱样本企业库存37.43万 吨，周下降2.58%；下游氧化铝周开工81%，周度+1%、粘胶短纤 周开工77.8%，环比+2.6%。评：目前烧碱装置开工高位较稳， 企业库存下降，下游氧化铝 ...