早间评论 西南期货研究所 2025 年 7 月 2 日星期三 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 | 国债： | 4 | | --- | --- | | 股指： | 5 | | 贵金属： 5 | | | 螺纹、热卷： 5 | | | 铁矿石： 6 | | | 焦煤焦炭： 6 | | | 铁合金： 7 | | | 原油： | 8 | | 燃料油： 9 | | | 合成橡胶： 9 | | | 天然橡胶： 10 | | | PVC： | 10 | | 尿素： | 11 | | 对二甲苯 | PX： 11 | | PTA： | 11 | | 乙二醇： 12 | | | 短纤： | 12 | | 瓶片： | 13 | | 纯碱： | 13 | | 玻璃： | 14 | | 烧碱： | 14 | | 纸浆： | 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | | 铜： | 16 | | --- | --- | | 锡： | 17 | | 镍： | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： 17 | | | 棕榈油： 18 | | | 菜粕、菜油： 19 | | | 棉花： | 19 | | 白糖： ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing a critical adjustment phase, influenced by mixed macroeconomic factors and technical indicators, leading to potential short-term volatility and risks of price corrections [1][10]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - There is a divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy, with the market anticipating at least one rate cut this year, but the timing and extent remain uncertain. Key upcoming data, such as non-farm payrolls and CPI, will be crucial in determining gold price movements [2]. - Geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China trade relations, continue to pose uncertainties that may support gold prices despite a reduction in market hedging behavior [3]. - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China, Turkey, and India, are still increasing their gold reserves, providing medium to long-term support for gold prices, although the pace of purchases has shown signs of slowing [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technical charts indicate short-term support levels at $2280 and $2255, with resistance levels at $2340 and $2365. The MACD on the daily chart has formed a bearish crossover, and the RSI has retreated to neutral territory, suggesting weakened momentum [5]. - A head-and-shoulders pattern has formed on the 4-hour chart, indicating that a drop below $2280 could lead to further testing of the $2250-$2230 range. Additionally, CFTC data shows a reduction in net long positions by hedge funds, reflecting cautious sentiment among institutions [5]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The short-term outlook is bearish with expectations of a corrective phase, likely maintaining a trading range between $2255 and $2340. Short-term traders are advised to adopt a buy-low, sell-high strategy while awaiting a clearer directional breakout [6]. - The medium-term view suggests positioning for potential gains on dips, especially if upcoming non-farm and inflation data disappoint, which could weaken the dollar and boost gold prices. A sustained move above $2300 and a breakout past $2345 could lead to targets of $2385-$2400 [7][8].

2025 年 7 月 2 日 货 行 情 前 瞻 研 究 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、螺纹钢、铁矿石、玻璃、PVC 期货将偏强震荡 白银、工业硅、焦煤、纯碱、PTA、豆粕期 货将偏弱震荡 原油期货将震荡整理 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2509 阻力位 3904 和 3931 点，支撑位 3867 和 3852 点；IH2509 阻力位 2703 和 2728 点，支撑位 2681 和 2667 点；IC2509 阻力位 5801 和 5838 ...

就7月而言，需要关注以下几点：第一，每年7—8月是中报交易窗口期，按照中报预告有条件强制披露 规则，利润增速>50%的沪深主板绩优公司需要在7月15日之前披露预告，建议关注中报情况。第二，美 国对其他国家和地区"对等关税"的90天豁免即将到期，当地时间6月26日，美国财政部宣布与七国集团 （G7）达成一项协议，该协议将使美国企业免于缴纳其他国家征收的一些税收，作为交换，美国将从 特朗普政府的相关税改法案中撤销第899条款提案。中国外交部及商务部多次声明，坚决反制任何牺牲 中国利益换取美方关税减免的交易，建议密切关注经贸磋商进展。第三，建议关注7月底召开的重要会 议。期指操作上，更多以自下而上视角审视市场结构，重点关注IM的滚动做多机会。（作者单位：一 德期货） （文章来源：期货日报） 6月30日，财政部、税务总局、商务部发布《关于境外投资者以分配利润直接投资税收抵免政策的公 告》，通过税收抵免机制引导外资长期留存并再投资，体现了我国在复杂国际经贸环境下巩固吸引外资 竞争力的战略意图。政策要求，在境外投资者境内再投资期限内，被投资企业从事的产业属于《鼓励外 商投资产业目录》所列的全国鼓励外商投资产业目录，半导体 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 7 月 2 日 中银晨会聚焦-20250702 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 产品组 证券分析师：王军 ■重点关注 【策略研究】2025 年中期策略报告*王君 徐沛东 郭晓希 徐亚 高天然。在科 技重估、关税冲击、政策储备等多维度下，怎么配 A 股才能成功突围？ 【宏观经济】一季度对外经济部门体检报告*管涛 刘立品 。2025 年一季度， 我国国际收支延续经常项目顺差、资本项目逆差的自主平衡格局，交易引起 的外汇储备资产减少但外汇储备余额增加，民间部门首次转为对外净资产。 | 市场指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3457.75 | 0.39 | | 深证成指 | 10476.29 | 0.11 | | 沪深 300 | 3942.76 | 0.17 | 行业表现（申万一级） | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | 指数名称 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综合 | 2.60 | 计算机 | (1.18) | ...

每经编辑｜彭水萍 直播嘉宾： 当前推动金价的核心动能在于避险属性的强化与全球"去美元化"趋势。避险属性来看，当前地缘政治冲 突频发，美国宏观政策的不稳定也加剧全球市场的不确定性。未来任何超预期的地缘政治事件都可能成 为金价上涨的催化剂。 杨晓磊 知名投顾主理人 彭悦 国泰基金量化投资部基金经理助理 直播时间： 2025年6月25日 摘要： 近期黄金价格因中东地缘冲突加剧快速上涨，随后因避险情绪回落及美联储偏鹰表态而回调，显示出短 期走势的高波动性。当前分析黄金的核心逻辑有所转变，以美国实际利率为锚的传统分析框架有一定程 度的失灵，金价更多反映的是对美元信用的对冲。 影响美元信用的因素主要来自两方面：一是美国自身的经济与财政状况，二是地缘政治冲突。美国经济 上行时，美元往往走强，投资者也会更愿意持有美元，金价这个时候往往会下跌。 美联储的货币政策走向也是影响金价的重要因素。美联储方面，2025年6月的联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）会议上，美联储以12:0的结果维持联邦基金利率目标区间于4.25%-4.5%区间不变，公布的点 阵图显示降息节奏放缓，整体表态中性偏鹰。鲍威尔强调利率预测可能会根据经济数据发生变化， ...

随着全球"去美元化"加速，中资企业海外发债币种结构显著多元化，离岸人民币、欧元、港币 等非美元债券发行占比持续提升。为全面反映市场动态，万得（Wind）新增中资离岸债承销 排行榜，以多币种发行数据为核心，覆盖美元、欧元、离岸人民币、港币等主要币种。 考虑到美元在全球外汇储备中占比仍达57.8%（IMF最新数据），万得在推出新榜单的同时保留了传统 中资美元债承销榜，兼顾市场多元参考需求。 据Wind最新统计显示，2025年上半年中资离岸债市场共新发行837只债券，合计规模达3990.44亿美元， 较去年同期实现12.74%的增长。然而，市场净融资缺口仍较为显著，存量债务的滚续压力仍存在。分 板块来看，离岸城投债上半年发行154只，规模155.88亿美元；离岸金融债发行417只，规模355.40亿美 元，两类债券在市场发行结构中占据重要位置。 在中资离岸债承销领域，2025年上半年各家机构表现如何？万得正式揭晓2025年上半年中资离岸债承销 排行榜，为您呈现市场参与者的最新竞争格局。 总承销排行榜 1.1 中资离岸债承销规模排行榜 2025年上半年中国银行共承销115只债，总承销金额56.3亿美元，位居第一；汇丰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline of the US dollar index is attributed to a crisis of confidence in the dollar, compounded by structural and cyclical factors, marking a shift from previous economic cycle-driven fluctuations [2][5][7]. Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index experienced a significant drop of over 10% in the first half of the year, falling from a peak of 110 in January to a low of 96.4578 by July 1, marking its lowest level since February 2022 [3][4]. - The decline began after the dollar index briefly touched the 110 mark, followed by a series of negative economic signals, including rising inflation and discussions of stagflation risks [3][5]. - Key events influencing the dollar's trajectory included changes in US tariff policies, which led to a drop below the 100 mark in April, and ongoing concerns about US economic performance [3][5]. Group 2: Non-US Currencies - In contrast to the dollar's decline, non-US currencies have generally appreciated, with the euro rising over 13% against the dollar in the first half of 2025, and the Chinese yuan showing resilience with a 1.82% appreciation in the onshore market [4][6]. - The strengthening of the yuan is attributed to both the passive appreciation effect from the dollar's weakness and robust domestic economic policies that support growth [6][8]. Group 3: Economic Factors and Outlook - Short-term factors contributing to the dollar's decline include expectations of a US economic slowdown and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while long-term concerns revolve around a broader credit crisis affecting the dollar's status [5][7]. - Analysts predict that the dollar index may continue to face downward pressure due to uncertainties in US trade policies, increasing concerns about US debt, and a shift in investor sentiment towards diversifying away from dollar assets [7][8]. - The expectation is that the dollar index will remain below 100, with a gradual appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, moving from a central rate of 7.1 towards 7.0 [8].

"我们讨论了关税、全球化的未来，以及大家对中东局势的担忧——这些都是当前最受关注的重大宏观 议题。" 在近期举行的2025年夏季达沃斯论坛期间，标普全球评级全球首席经济学家保罗·格伦瓦尔 （Paul Gruenwald）在接受南方财经记者专访时表示，今年上半年，全球经济在不确定性加剧的背景下 依然展现出一定韧性，但结构性分化趋势愈发明显。他指出，关税政策对全球经济的影响不仅体现在税 率本身，更在于其带来的高度不确定性。 展望下半年，格伦瓦尔指出，决定经济走向的关键变量之一是政策不确定性的缓解。他预计，美国经济 将在今年实现"软着陆"；欧元区经济则有望逐步回暖；而中国经济"看起来相当稳健"。对于新兴市场， 格伦瓦尔同样持相对乐观态度，表示只要油价保持低位、美元相对稳定，这些市场的表现预计将较为良 好。不过，他也坦言，全球增长将呈现"不平衡"特征——各经济体受制于不同的经济周期和政策环境 等，处境将不尽相同。 谈及人工智能，格伦瓦尔表示，人工智能等新技术的广泛应用，有望成为未来5到10年全球增长的重要 动力。 上调对中国的增长预测 全球财经连线：你对于这次论坛有什么感受？ 保罗·格伦瓦尔：非常忙碌。我们讨论了关税 ...

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Global stock market risk appetite has steadily increased, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching record closing highs [1] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6204.95 points, up 25% from its low on April 9, while the Nasdaq rose over 34% from its low [5] - The Korean Composite Index surged over 28%, leading global stock markets, while the German DAX index saw a cumulative increase of 20% [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - Gold prices rose significantly, with a 25.59% increase in the first half of the year, following a 19% rise in Q1 and a 6% increase in Q2 [1][8] - Platinum experienced a notable "catch-up" rally, with a cumulative increase of 48% in the first half of the year, while silver futures rose by 32.61% [1] - The COMEX gold futures saw a 5.67% increase in Q2, while platinum prices surged approximately 36.14% in the same period [8] Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index fell over 10% in the first half of the year, marking the largest decline since 1973, while non-US currencies strengthened [1][5] - The euro appreciated by 13.8% against the dollar, and both the yen and pound rose by 8% [1] Group 4: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices experienced wide fluctuations, with WTI crude oil reaching a high of nearly $80 per barrel and a low of around $55 [10] - OPEC+ has begun increasing production, with plans to add approximately 1.37 million barrels per day by July [11] - Analysts predict that oil prices may have reached their peak for the year, with expectations of a downward trend influenced by OPEC+ production increases [11]