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热点思考|财政“前置”后该关注什么?(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-06-01 02:31
1-4月广义财政支出进度达28.4%,高于过去五年均值(28.2%),展现出财政对经济的有力支撑。 2025 年一季度广义财政支出增速为 5.6%,超过名义 GDP 增速,也是2023 年以来一季度财政最好表现。值得 注意的是,2025 年 4 月广义财政支出同比提升至 12.9%,加之财政发债速度依然积极,预计二季度支出 增速仍将保持相对高位。 广义财政支出的增长并非得益于收入改善,1-4 月广义财政收入累计同比为 - 1.3%,较预算目标低 1.5 个 百分点,主要受税收和土地出让收入下滑影响。 1-4 月税收累计同比为 - 2.1%,低于年初预算目标 (3.7%)5.8 个百分点;非税收入再度成为稳定一般公共预算收入的主力。同期,土地出让收入累计同比 低至 - 11.4%,同比减少 1196 亿元。 摘要 财政债务融资和支出结构明显"前置",稳定上半年经济表现,后续财政路径如何演绎,增量政策会采取 何种方式?本文分析,可供参考。 2025年财政最鲜明的特征是什么?财政融资前置提振支出表现 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人| 贾东旭 践中得到充分验证。2022 年首批3000亿资金实现两个月内全部落地 ...
热点思考|财政“前置”后该关注什么?(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
申万宏源宏观· 2025-05-30 14:20
摘要 广义财政支出的高增长,更多依赖政府债务发行前置,尤其是国债的快速发行。 1-4 月政府债净融资 4.8 万亿元,同比多增 3.6 万亿元,成为广义财政支出的核心支撑。截至 2025 年 5 月 24 日,国债已发行规 模达预算目标的 42.7%,远超 2020-2024 年均值。 后续财政走势如何?增量政策的出台或可平滑财政支出节奏,巩固经济恢复态势。 2025 年财政政策更为积极,全年安排政府债净融资规模达 13.86 万亿元。 截至 5 月底,政府债已净融资 6.3 万亿元,尚余 7.5 万亿元待发行。具体来看,2025 年新增债务构成包括:赤字 56600 亿元、超长期特 别国债 13000 亿元、注资特别国债 5000 亿元、新增专项债 44000 亿元、化债资金 20000 亿元,整体较 2024 年多增 2.9 万亿元。 在政府债融资规模保持既定安排的假设下,预计至 9 月底政府债净融资将维持高位。 4月政治局会议提 出"加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用",后续地方政府有望落实。鉴于今年国债净融 资增量可观,其发行节奏或延续年初以来态势。综合来看,二季度政府债净融资同比多增或达 ...
青矩技术(836208) - 投资者关系活动记录表
2025-05-29 12:10
□媒体采访 证券代码:836208 证券简称:青矩技术 公告编号:2025-053 青矩技术股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整,没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连 带法律责任。 一、 投资者关系活动类别 □特定对象调研 √业绩说明会 □现场参观 □新闻发布会 □分析师会议 □路演活动 □其他 二、 投资者关系活动情况 活动时间:2025 年 5 月 28 日 活动地点:全景网"投资者关系互动平台"(https://ir.p5w.net) 参会单位及人员:通过网络方式参加公司 2024 年度业绩说明会的投资者 上市公司接待人员:青矩技术董事长陈永宏,董事、总裁张超,董事、副总 裁、财务负责人、董事会秘书杨林栋;中信建投保荐代表人苏华椿 三、 投资者关系活动主要内容 问题 1:如顺利收购北京求实工程管理有限公司 45.12%股权,将对公司产生 哪些积极影响。 回答:北京求实工程管理有限公司在科研中心、体育场馆、医疗设施、高端 商业及酒店、城市更新改造等民用建筑领域积淀深厚,同时多年深耕半导体研发 厂房、生物医 ...
第二届山东省职业技能大赛开赛
Da Zhong Ri Bao· 2025-05-28 00:59
工业机器人系统操作、增材制造、3D数字游戏艺术……每个赛场上,都活跃着来自全省各地的高 精尖技术人才。"此次大赛在赛项设置上紧密对接先进制造业,充分衔接新基建新职业,所有项目均服 务于实体经济。在竞赛规则上,将行业与生产实践中的操作标准充分融入比赛规则、比赛技术,引领技 能人才培养方向,做到以赛促学、以赛促教、以赛促训。"省人力资源社会保障厅相关负责人说。 在信息网络布线赛场外,4名来自滨州市鲁北技师学院的学生全神贯注地观察着赛场上选手们的操 作手法。"我们学的是信息技术专业,通过观看不同选手的操作流程,能够给我的专业学习带来很多正 向参考。"鲁北技师学院学生赵晓鸣告诉记者,为有机会亲眼看见技能高手现场比拼,他们几个同学由 老师带队专程赴济南观赛。 第二届山东省职业技能大赛开赛 工厂搬进赛场,千余技术能手同台炫技 一人手持示教器,与机器臂人机交互,指挥其进行零件安装;一人坐在电脑前,通过数据实时传 输,让生产线其他自动化设备与机器臂实现协同操作……5月27日,在第二届山东省职业技能大赛工业 机器人系统操作比赛场地,以双人协作模式参赛的选手们聚精会神地进行着技能比拼。"这个作业模式 完全模拟在智能工厂生产时的场 ...
中金:大缸径发动机乘AIDC基建东风,全产业链国产替代可期
中金点睛· 2025-05-27 23:39
中金研究 近年来,国内外头部云计算厂商持续加码AI基建。大缸径发动机是数据中心备用电源柴油发电机组的核心零部件,技术门槛较高,国产化率较低。 我 们认为,当下AIDC建设需求高增,数据中心用柴油发电机组及大缸径发动机迎来量价齐升机遇,全产业链国产替代已成趋势,建议关注自主品牌大缸 径发动机厂商及其供应链厂商。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 大缸径发动机高壁垒高价值,市场规模广阔。 围绕核心部件气缸,发动机具备缸径、行程、缸数、排量等物理参数,直接影响发动机的动力性与经济性 表现。一般而言,发动机缸径越大、排量越高、马力越大,对应着结构更加复杂、技术难度越高、价值量越大。大缸径发动机是指排量在16L及以上、功 率在550kW及以上且缸径在150mm及以上的发动机,主要用在发电、船舶、工业领域,系高技术壁垒、高价值量的发动机产品。我们测算得到大缸径发动 机2023年全球规模超千亿元人民币。 乘AIDC基建东风,大缸径柴油发动机需求高增。 大缸径发动机是数据中心备用电源柴油发电机组的核心部件,决定柴油发电机组的核心功率。我们产业 链调研得到大缸径发动机占柴油发电机组BOM成本约70-80%。受AI驱动下 ...
干事岂能“假把式”(金台潮声·作风建设系列谈⑨)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-05-27 22:40
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for accountability and proactive behavior among officials, highlighting the detrimental effects of inaction and superficial efforts in governance [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Issues Identified - Various forms of inaction are observed, including superficial engagement and a lack of genuine problem-solving efforts among some officials [1] - The phenomenon of "fake efforts" is linked to a decline in commitment to public service and is seen as a manifestation of bureaucratic and formalistic tendencies [1][2] Group 2: Consequences of Inaction - The "frog boiling" effect of complacency can erode the spirit of progress and diminish work capabilities [2] - A lack of a scientific evaluation system can lead to a "broken window" effect, where the inaction of a few undermines the efforts of diligent workers, creating a negative ecosystem [2] - Inaction and slow responses from officials can damage the credibility of the party and government, creating barriers between the government and the public [2] Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - Establishing a comprehensive evaluation mechanism is crucial, focusing on both immediate and long-term performance, linking results to promotions and rewards [3] - Strengthening ideological foundations is necessary to inspire genuine commitment and action among officials, integrating the spirit of collective responsibility into their mindset [3][4] - A scientific evaluation system should accurately distinguish between genuine efforts and superficial actions, fostering a culture of accountability and proactive engagement [4]
世纪互联上涨3.42%,报6.19美元/股,总市值16.65亿美元
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-05-27 13:52
5月27日,世纪互联(VNET)开盘上涨3.42%,截至21:31,报6.19美元/股,成交149.6万美元,总市值 16.65亿美元。 大事提醒: 本文源自:金融界 5月28日,世纪互联将于(美东)盘前披露2025财年一季报(数据来源于纳斯达克官网,预计披露日期为 美国当地时间,实际披露日期以公司公告为准)。 作者:行情君 资料显示,世纪互联(VNET.US)成立于1996年,是科创型数字新基建龙头企业、中国第一家美股IDC上市 公司,也是国内唯一一家以"基地型+城市型"IDC业务同步发展的头部IDC企业。世纪互联致力于为客户 提供业界领先的数据中心、智算中心(AIDC)、网络以及基于数据中心的云计算交换连接、混合交付等 云计算综合服务及解决方案,打造具有核心技术、超大规模运营能力、高附加值的数字基础设施运营平 台。 世纪互联在全国30多个城市运营超过50座数据中心,基地型业务运营容量超过480MW,城市型业务运营机 柜数超过52000个。在京津冀、长三角、粤港澳等区域构建了规模化的数据中心产业集群,形成了稳固、 庞大、全连接的数字化核心底座,不仅满足企业在一线城市的业务布局,更可提供一线城市向边缘城市数 ...
绿岛风:以创新之姿 驱动室内空气系统变革
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-05-27 13:44
Core Insights - The company Green Island Wind has become a key player in the indoor air quality industry, responding to increasing consumer awareness across various sectors including commercial, residential, and industrial [1][2] - Innovation is the core driving force behind the company's development, with a total R&D investment of 78.89 million yuan from 2020 to 2024, and high-tech product sales revenue reaching 1.75 billion yuan [2] - The company is transitioning from a product-centric model to a service-oriented approach, offering comprehensive solutions for various industries [3] Company Development - Green Island Wind was founded in 1992 as "Hongyi Electric" and entered the ventilation industry, launching its first product, a wind curtain machine, in 2001 [1] - The company officially entered the fresh air system market around 2009 and became a pioneer in this field, later being recognized as the "first fresh air stock" in China's A-share market in 2021 [1] - The company has established strong partnerships in the commercial sector, with 70% of Luckin Coffee's stores using its wind curtain products [2] Market Position and Growth - In 2024, Green Island Wind's sales of specialized ventilation products for hotel bathrooms are expected to exceed 300,000 units, capturing a market share of 14% [2] - The company has been listed among the top 500 manufacturing enterprises in Guangdong Province, with an output value surpassing 600 million yuan [2] - The fresh air system market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 30%, driven by policy, technology, and consumer demand [2] Future Outlook - Green Island Wind plans to continue focusing on residential, commercial, and industrial applications, particularly in empowering new infrastructure and new productivity in sectors like data centers and renewable energy factories [3]
发挥商事争端多元解纷优势 长三角庭外重组中心在上海成立
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-05-27 06:45
Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Yangtze River Delta Out-of-Court Restructuring Center aims to enhance the business environment in Shanghai by providing a one-stop professional service for companies facing debt or financial difficulties, thereby promoting market-oriented, legal, and international business practices [1][2]. Group 1: Establishment and Objectives - The Yangtze River Delta Out-of-Court Restructuring Center was launched to respond to the Shanghai Municipal Government's initiative to improve the business environment [1]. - The center focuses on creating a market-oriented, legal, and international business environment, helping distressed but viable companies to recover [1][3]. Group 2: Services and Technology Integration - The center offers a comprehensive range of services, including a roster of mediators and restructuring consultants, expert consultation, and a database of professional service institutions [1][2]. - A strategic partnership with Alibaba Assets and Lvxin Media has led to the creation of an online platform that utilizes blockchain, smart contracts, and big data for debt information matching and restructuring negotiations [2]. Group 3: Ecosystem and Expert Involvement - The event saw the introduction of an expert consultation database, a professional service institution database, and an investor database, involving top experts, leading law firms, and major investment institutions [2][3]. - The center aims to build a three-in-one ecosystem of "think tank support - professional services - capital protection" to enhance the efficiency of business dispute resolution [2]. Group 4: Future Directions - The forum emphasized innovation in mechanisms, technological empowerment, and ecosystem aggregation, marking a new phase in the collaborative development of commercial dispute resolution in the Yangtze River Delta [3]. - The center will continue to explore market-oriented, legal, and international paths for commercial dispute resolution, contributing to the dual circulation development pattern [3].
美国没料到,普京突然出手,中国石油如今已经偷偷处于领先地位
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-27 03:44
Core Insights - China has maintained its position as the world's largest oil consumer for three consecutive years, with an average daily consumption exceeding 14 million barrels [1] - A strategic shift in global energy dynamics is underway, highlighted by Russia's decision to increase oil supply to China via Kazakhstan, breaking a two-decade technical monopoly [1][3] - The development of energy infrastructure and technology in China is rapidly advancing, with significant achievements in deep-water drilling and shale gas production [3][5] Group 1: Oil Consumption and Supply Dynamics - China's average daily oil consumption has surpassed 14 million barrels, solidifying its status as the top global consumer [1] - In 2023, China's imports of Russian crude oil increased by 28% year-on-year, exceeding 90 million tons, as Western sanctions reduced Russian oil exports to Europe by 42% [3] - The agreement to increase oil supply through the Kazakhstan pipeline will raise annual transport capacity to 12.5 million tons, enhancing China's refining capacity in Kazakhstan by 27% [1][3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The successful drilling of the Tazhong 1 well at a depth of 10,038 meters has set a new record for onshore drilling in Asia, enabling China to master ultra-deep oil and gas extraction technology [3] - The "Deep Sea No. 1" project has achieved a 95% localization rate in underwater production systems, reducing operational costs by 40% compared to international peers [3] - The development of the "Xuanji" rotary steering system has significantly shortened drilling cycles and reduced costs, demonstrating rapid technological advancement in shale gas extraction [3][5] Group 3: Global Energy Strategy - China's overseas oil and gas equity production has reached 120 million tons, covering 32 oil-producing countries, establishing a four-pole linkage across the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, and the Americas [5] - The strategic oil reserve has surpassed 500 million barrels, ensuring a safety line equivalent to 90 days of net imports, supported by a unique three-tier system of commercial, strategic, and enterprise reserves [5] - China's diversified oil import strategy has resulted in a decrease in the concentration of its top ten suppliers to 68%, allowing for better cost control during international price fluctuations [5] Group 4: Energy Governance and Cooperation - The International Energy Agency noted that China is reshaping global energy governance with its model of "technology output + capacity cooperation + infrastructure connectivity," providing an alternative to traditional Western approaches [6] - The rapid development of energy projects in Iraq has been recognized as a benchmark for Middle Eastern energy cooperation, showcasing China's efficiency and speed in project execution [6][8] - China's global energy strategy is characterized by a comprehensive innovation in technology standards, operational models, and strategic thinking, challenging traditional energy power dynamics [8]