Economic Overview - In April, China's economy demonstrated resilience and stability despite external pressures, continuing a positive development trend [1][4] - The overall economic performance reflects strong domestic circulation and effective macro policies implemented by various regions and departments [1][4] Trade and Foreign Relations - China's goods import and export value in April reached 38,391 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, with exports growing by 9.3% and imports by 0.8% [13] - From January to April, total goods import and export value increased by 2.4% year-on-year, with exports growing by 7.5% and imports declining by 4.2% [13] - Trade with ASEAN and "Belt and Road" countries showed significant growth, with imports and exports to ASEAN increasing by 9.2% and to "Belt and Road" countries by 3.9% [8] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises in April grew by 6.1% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing increasing by 10% [17][10] - Equipment manufacturing saw a notable increase of 9.8%, contributing 55.9% to the overall industrial growth [2][17] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Social retail sales in April reached 37,174 billion yuan, growing by 5.1% year-on-year, driven by the effects of the "old for new" consumption policy [18] - The retail sales of household appliances and related products significantly boosted overall consumption, contributing 1.4 percentage points to the growth of social retail sales [11][18] Employment and Labor Market - The urban unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a slight decrease from the previous month, indicating overall stability in the employment situation [16] - The average urban unemployment rate from January to April was 5.2%, consistent with the same period last year [16] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment from January to April reached 147,024 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, while infrastructure investment grew by 5.8% [15] - High-tech industries, particularly in information services and aerospace manufacturing, saw substantial investment growth, with increases of 40.6% and 23.9% respectively [15][10] Price Trends - In April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices showing mixed trends [20] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also saw a decline, with industrial producer prices down by 2.7% year-on-year [20]

Group 1 - In April, China's overall export growth slowed to 8.1%, with industrial export delivery value showing a nominal growth of 0.9%, down from 7.7% in March [1] - Manufacturing investment growth for January to April was 8.8%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter, marking the lowest level of the year [1] - The real estate market showed signs of cooling, with some residents opting to wait, leading to declines in housing prices, sales, construction, and funding sources [1] Group 2 - The service sector demonstrated resilience against external shocks, with domestic travel during the Qingming Festival increasing by 6.3% in terms of visitor numbers and 6.7% in total spending [2] - The service production index in April grew by 6.0%, marking the second-highest monthly growth rate of the year [2] - Infrastructure investment from January to April increased by 5.8%, remaining steady compared to the first quarter, supported by easing local government debt issues and proactive fiscal policies [2] Group 3 - Despite external shocks, China's economic foundation remains stable, with strong resilience and potential, supported by coordinated macro policies [3] - A recent high-level economic meeting between China and the U.S. resulted in significant tariff reductions, with the U.S. canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating [3] - Following the announcement, global risk aversion decreased, leading to a drop in gold prices and an increase in stock markets, with major institutions raising their growth forecasts for China's economy [3] Group 4 - Recent financial policies announced by regulatory authorities include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in reserve requirements and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates [4] - The government emphasized strengthening domestic circulation to counter uncertainties in international circulation, aiming for enhanced economic resilience [4] - As these policies are implemented, the economic resilience of China is expected to further strengthen [4]

资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 直面关税逆风，4月我国经济平稳增长，呈现三个特征。一是外需保持高增，内需积极接棒。 4月人民币计价 出口金额同比增长9.3%，增速仍高于投资和消费。出口高增源自转口贸易和非美贸易伙伴需求韧性，中美双 边贸易收缩的拖累低于预期。投资和消费以高质量增长的确定性积极应对关税变局的不确定性。 二是新旧动 能转换加速。 4月装备制造业和高技术制造业支撑作用持续增强，新质生产力相关的3D打印设备、工业机器 人、新能源汽车等产量均同比增长四至六成。与此同时，一季度房地产业增加值占GDP比重继续回落，4月房 地产投资加速收缩。 三是供需格局尚未实质性转变，物价低位运行压力持续存在。 4月供给增速仍好于内需， 叠加能源价格拖累加剧，CPI、PPI通胀分别为-0.1%、-2.7%。 5月19日，国家统计局发布4月份国民经济运行数据。供给端，4月全国规上工业增加值同比增长6.1%（预期 5.2%），服务业生产指数当月同比增长6%。需求端，4月固定资产投资累计增长4%（预期4.2%），其中，基 建和制造业累计增速分别为10.9%（预期10%）和8.8%（预期9% ...

Group 1: Global Economic Trends - China is effectively countering external uncertainties through institutional openness and the implementation of the "dual circulation" development strategy, aiming to address the bottleneck of insufficient domestic demand and inject new momentum for high-quality economic development [1][3] Group 2: Sino-US Trade Relations and Foreign Investment - Despite challenges posed by the tariff war, China remains an attractive market due to its large market size, stable political environment, rich human capital, and improving institutional openness, which collectively create a strong magnet for foreign investment [3][4] - Chinese companies are encouraged to diversify their markets and reduce reliance on a single market by embracing technological innovation, cost reduction, and expanding their networks [3] Group 3: Outbound Investment - Outbound investment is viewed as a crucial strategy for Chinese companies to enhance their capabilities and achieve global expansion, supported by national policies that encourage enterprises to "go global" [4] Group 4: Bay Area Financial Cooperation - The Greater Bay Area should focus on cross-border financial cooperation, intellectual property protection, and industrial ecosystem development to attract foreign R&D centers, leveraging its geographical and resource advantages [5] Group 5: Domestic Circulation Challenges - Local protectionism and factor barriers are identified as major obstacles to the advancement of domestic circulation, necessitating a unified national approach to facilitate the free flow of key elements such as personnel, capital, and data [6] - The private economy plays a significant role in domestic circulation, contributing over 50% of tax revenue, 60% of GDP, and 70% of technological innovations, highlighting the need for supportive measures to address financing challenges and improve the business environment [6] Group 6: Importance of Technological Innovation - Technological innovation is deemed essential for addressing the issue of insufficient domestic demand, with recommendations to enhance consumer spending through increased income levels, improved income distribution, and more consumption scenarios [7] - A well-developed financial system is crucial for supporting technological innovation, with suggestions to further open capital markets to attract foreign institutional investors and reduce financing costs [7] Group 7: Financial Market Opening - The current environment presents a favorable opportunity for further financial market opening, but it should be approached cautiously to avoid the pitfalls experienced by South American countries due to excessive openness [8] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of institutional development and risk prevention in the process of financial market opening, ensuring orderly progress while enhancing transparency and regulatory oversight [8]

面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，中国经济表现如何？5月19日国家统计局最新 数据表明，4月份，中国经济顶住压力、稳定增长，延续向新向好发展态势。一系列释放出积极信号的 数据，足以令我们打消顾虑、坚定信心、安心发展。 4月份经济数据，充分彰显了国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性。 从需求来看，国内需求稳步扩大。 消费潜力持续释放。4月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长5.1%，其中，消费品以旧换新政策带动相关 商品销售大幅增长。在假日经济等带动下，服务零售也保持稳定增长。1至4月份，服务零售额同比增长 5.1%，连续两个月加快。 有效投资接续落地。1至4月份，固定资产投资同比增长4%。其中，设备工器具购置投资同比增长 18.2%，对全部投资增长的贡献率达到64.5%。 从供给来看，实体经济量增质升。 量，合理增长。4月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，是去年以来月度增速中较快的速度。其 中，4月份装备制造业增加值同比增长9.8%，实现持续较快增长，对规模以上工业增长的贡献率达到 55.9%。 也得益于加大外贸多元化发展、"不把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里"的出口策略——1至4月，我国对共建"一带 一路 ...

Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, China's GDP reached 31.8758 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2%[3] - The industrial added value grew by 6.5% year-on-year, while the service sector's added value increased by 5.3%[4] - Fixed asset investment rose by 4.2% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by 5.8%[16][20] Trade and Exports - Total goods trade in Q1 2025 was 10.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with exports at 6.13 trillion yuan, up 6.9%[28] - The export of mechanical and electrical products reached 5.29 trillion yuan, growing by 7.7%[28] - The share of domestic brand exports increased to 22.8%, reflecting a 10.2% growth in this segment[28] Price Stability - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices dropping by 1.5%[31] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the decline compared to previous quarters[33] Employment and Fiscal Policy - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.3% in Q1 2025, showing stability in the job market[38] - National general public budget revenue was 6.0 trillion yuan, down 1.1% year-on-year, while expenditures increased by 4.2% to 7.3 trillion yuan[40]

日期 2025 年 5 月 19 日 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：5月16日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2509 | 1472 ...

投资策略 | 定期报告 | 逆周期政策提振市场信心：——策略周报 | 2025-05-12 | | --- | --- | | 0512 | | | 物来顺应：——策略周报 0505 | 2025-05-06 | | 以稳为主：——策略周报 0428 | 2025-04-28 | | 缺乏稳定一致预期：——策略周报 0421 | 2025-04-20 | | 市场或仍将保持高波动：——策略周报 | 2025-04-17 | | 0414 | | | 关税风暴，关注国内政策对冲：——策略 | 2025-04-07 | | 周报 0407 | | | 从政策博弈到基本面验证：——策略周报 | 2025-03-30 | | 0331 | | | 情绪退潮、A 股高位回落：——策略周报 | 2025-03-24 | | 0324 | | 关税降级提振市场风险偏好 ——策略周报 0518 研究结论 风险提示 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 19 日 | 张书铭 | 021- ...

Key Points - The US and China have significantly reduced bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with the same percentage of counter-tariffs [1][4][10] - The Chinese government emphasizes strengthening domestic circulation as a strategic move for stable economic growth [2][4] - New regulations for major asset restructuring of listed companies have been implemented, introducing a phased payment mechanism and private equity fund arrangements [1][4] - The People's Bank of China reported a broad money (M2) balance of 325.17 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [1][3] - The US has lost its Aaa credit rating from major international credit rating agencies, indicating a decline in sovereign creditworthiness [1][10][11] - China's holdings of US Treasury bonds decreased by $18.9 billion, making it the third-largest holder, while the UK has become the second-largest [1][11]

Domestic Macro Policy - The State Council emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation to counter international uncertainties, focusing on long-term growth and stability[2] - Recent policies aim to enhance agricultural technology innovation and support urban renewal projects through increased central budget investments and special bonds[3] - A comprehensive financial policy package was announced, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1% cut in policy interest rates, alongside an increase of CNY 300 billion in technology innovation loans[17] Consumption and Financial Regulation - Provinces are issuing consumption vouchers exceeding CNY 1 billion, targeting integrated domestic and foreign trade, and enhancing consumer potential through various channels[19] - Financial regulatory bodies are reinforcing support for capital markets, including a commitment to stabilize the market and encourage long-term investments, with a recent approval of CNY 600 billion for insurance fund investments[21] Trade Relations - Recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a reduction of 91% in tariffs, with both sides agreeing to suspend additional tariffs for 90 days[24] - The UK and US have reached a trade agreement, with the UK making concessions on agricultural imports in exchange for reduced tariffs on automotive exports[28] Overseas Macro Policy - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%, citing increased uncertainty in economic outlook and inflation risks[27] - Global trade policies are evolving, with significant agreements being reached between the US and other nations, including India and Qatar, enhancing economic cooperation[29]