美联储主席鲍威尔：4.2%的失业率位于可持续的长期失业率预估的低端。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the supply and demand dynamics in the labor market are keeping the unemployment rate at a reasonable level [1] Group 1 - The labor market's supply and demand relationship is a key factor in maintaining a stable unemployment rate [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：失业率一直保持在较窄的范围内，且处于较低水平。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that unusual fluctuations in net exports complicate GDP measurements [1] Group 2 - Unemployment rate projections for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4% respectively, with slight increases from previous estimates [4] - Core PCE inflation expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1% respectively, indicating upward revisions [4] - Federal funds rate projections for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.9%, 3.6%, and 3.4% respectively, with increases noted for 2026 and 2027 [4]

Economic Forecasts - The GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 1.4%, 1.6%, and 1.8% respectively, with a long-term forecast also at 1.8% [2] - The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.5% in 2025 and 2026, slightly decreasing to 4.4% in 2027, with a long-term expectation of 4.2% [2] - PCE inflation is forecasted at 3.0% for 2025, decreasing to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with a long-term target of 2.0% [2] - Core PCE inflation is anticipated to be 3.1% in 2025, dropping to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with a long-term goal of 2.0% [2] - The federal funds rate is projected to be 3.9% in 2025, 3.6% in 2026, and 3.4% in 2027, with a long-term expectation of 3.0% [2]

美联诸FOMC声明未提及失业率和通胀上升的风险。 ...

美联储FOMC经济预期：经济增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率也略高于三月份的预期。 ...

美联储经济预期中的图表显示，FOMC与会者中多数认为失业率面临的不确定性更高，风险偏向上行。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's FOMC has updated its economic projections for the unemployment rate at the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027, with median expectations of 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4% respectively, indicating a slight increase from the previous projections of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% made in March [1] Summary by Category - **Unemployment Rate Projections** - The median unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2025 is 4.5% [1] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2026 is 4.5% [1] - The median unemployment rate forecast for the end of 2027 is 4.4% [1] - Previous projections from March indicated lower rates of 4.4% for 2025, 4.3% for 2026, and 4.3% for 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's FOMC economic projections indicate a slight increase in the unemployment rate expectations for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 compared to previous forecasts [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Projections - The median unemployment rate expectations for the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 4.5%, 4.5%, and 4.4% respectively [1] - In March, the unemployment rate expectations were lower at 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.3% for the same years [1]