Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K in June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised May figure of +144K [1][2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, resulting in a total increase of +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The government sector contributed significantly to job gains in June with +73K, while the private sector saw mixed results, including a loss of -56K in Professional/Business Services [4][5] - Healthcare added +39K jobs and Social Assistance +19K, but traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Federal Reserve Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying any cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market concerns [7][8] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, aligning with expectations and showing improvement from the record low of -$138 billion in March [9]

锂行业专题报告解读 20250703 摘要 碳酸锂价格短期内或反弹至 6.7 万-7 万元/吨，若国内大型锂云母矿停产， 有望突破 7 万元。中长期看，价格中枢预计在 7 万元上下震荡，需求好 时或达 7-8 万元，需求弱时则为 6-7 万元。 当前碳酸锂价格已接近行业成本曲线的 70 分位线和现金成本曲线的 80 分位线，配置锂矿股性价比高。碳酸锂价格每上涨 1 万元，相关股票预 计平均涨幅约 30%。 澳洲部分锂矿因出口价下跌已停产，但未出现大规模停产信号。澳洲锂 辉石矿成本显著下降，但仍高于中国进口价，短期内难见新的停产迹象， 预计 2026 年可能出现更多产能出清。 南美盐湖开发进展缓慢，成本因海外通胀而显著提高，即使是最低成本 的阿卡塔玛盐湖也约为 4 万元/吨，部分项目成本更高，导致企业面临成 本压力。 非洲锂矿成为中资企业重点开发区域，成本已降至 6-7 万元/吨，现金成 本 5-6 万元/吨。尽管当前价格下多数矿山亏损，但头部厂商财务状况良 好，预计将继续投放产能并优化成本。 Q&A 最近碳酸锂期货主力合约价格出现明显反弹的原因是什么？ 短期内碳酸锂价格可能达到多少？ 短期内，碳酸锂价格可能上 ...

大额存单一直是商业银行揽储利器，也是不少高净值投资者理财的首选，为何现在集体下架？ 近日，工行、建行、招行等多家大中型商业银行以及多地农村商业银行纷纷下架5年期大额存单产品 ， 3年期大额存单投放量也较少。 5年期大额存单下架，意味着投资者依赖中长期储蓄实现家庭财富保值增值的机会越来越少，做好多元 财富投资尤为必要。 "随着存款利率走低，投资者转向银行理财等资产管理业务时，应基于家庭财务状况与风险承受能力， 明确短期、中期、长期理财目标，短期资金优先配置货币基金等流动性强的产品。"中国银行研究院研 究员梁斯认为，投资者应进行跨产品对比，关注利率走势与期限结构，选择综合收益更优的产品。通过 深入研读产品说明书，明晰收益计算方式、申赎规则及费率结构，避免因信息不对称影响投资决策。 专家建议，在低利率时代的家庭理财规划中，一方面要采用"固收+"策略，配置中短期债基；另一方面 通过全球资产配置捕捉全球范围内的经济增长机会。据了解，目前国内已有不少全球资产配置的基金组 合。 梁斯认为，投资者还可适度配置高评级债券及债券型基金，利用其收益稳定性与储蓄形成互补，获取稳 定收益。风险偏好较高的投资者可布局权益类资产，通过指数 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体上涨，截止到收盘，还在4.9星。 大中小盘股都上涨，涨幅也相近。 价值风格微涨微跌，成长风格比较强势。 2.月薪宝、365等策略，属于固收+类品种。 这些品种通常是含有股票、债券等不同资产。 这两年受益于存款利率下降，固收+类品种，2023年之后的收益比之前高了不少。 收益来自三个部分： （1）股票部分 像365、月薪宝，底层持有的股票部分，是偏价值风格。 价值风格，代表指数是红利、价值、低波动、自由现金流等策略指数。 价值风格的特点： 科技、创业板、包括医药生物科技等上涨较多。 港股昨天上涨，今天略微下跌。 港股红利继续上涨。 最近12周港股红利只有一周下跌，这在历史上也比较少见。 人民币港币美元，今年利率齐齐下降，对港股红利也是利好。 除了港股红利之外的港股，最近低迷一些。 港股前段时间连续上涨，比A股多涨了15-20%。 最近变成A股补涨，港股低迷一些，风水轮流转。 港股过去一两年上涨，经常是进三退一或者进三退二这样。 后面港股二季度如果业绩继续增长，也会有下一波行情的。 1. 今年上半年结束了。 月薪宝在最近，也创下历史新高。 打算对月薪宝组合做调仓 ...

俄罗斯诺里尔斯克镍公司（Nornickel）：预计2026年全球钯金将实现供需平衡。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials indicate that if the labor market shows signs of weakness, the timing for restarting interest rate cuts may come sooner, influenced by pressure from Trump [1][2] - Trump's immigration policies are complicating the Fed's ability to assess the true state of the labor market, making it difficult to determine whether employment slowdowns are due to decreased labor demand or reduced labor supply [2][3] - Analysts expect a significant slowdown in immigration this year, which could lead employers to raise wages to fill positions, potentially causing shortages in certain goods or services [2][3] Group 2 - The balance of labor supply and demand has changed, with economists noting that the monthly job growth needs to be compared against a new equilibrium level that reflects labor market conditions [3][4] - The expected job growth figures, even if around 110,000, may not provide a clear consensus on whether they exceed or fall below the supply-demand balance [4][5] - Economists are shifting focus from monthly job growth to unemployment rates as a more direct measure of labor market health, although this approach has its limitations [5][6] Group 3 - The Fed's recent decision to maintain interest rates reflects a cautious approach, with officials acknowledging the need for more data before making any changes [6][7] - Concerns are raised that if the slowdown in job growth is due to reduced labor supply rather than weak demand, cutting rates could lead to higher inflation [6][7] - The potential for inflation to accelerate due to Trump's trade and immigration policies adds to the complexity of the Fed's decision-making process [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Companies must prepare for increased costs when exporting to the United States for an extended period, as tariffs are unlikely to be lifted soon [1] Group 1 - The Singapore Deputy Prime Minister emphasized that businesses should not expect tariffs to be removed after the U.S. government changes in four years [1] - There is a growing consensus among both U.S. political parties on using tariffs to achieve trade balance and encourage the return of key industries [1] - Companies need to be ready for more scrutiny regarding their production and supply chains [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that CPP Investments is initiating a global investment strategy adjustment, gradually closing private equity operations in Latin America, including Brazil, due to various macroeconomic challenges [1] - CPP Investments had previously viewed Latin America as a high-growth potential region, investing in infrastructure, consumer, and fintech projects, particularly in Brazil's energy and transportation sectors [1] - The tightening global liquidity and sustained high interest rates by the Federal Reserve have led to valuation pressures and increased uncertainty in emerging markets, prompting CPP Investments to reassess its asset portfolio [1] Group 2 - Some analysts suggest that the withdrawal of international long-term capital may create opportunities for other types of capital, particularly from Asian sovereign funds and policy financial instruments, to enter the Latin American market [2] - Chinese enterprises and policy banks have been increasing their investments in Latin America, establishing a robust investment network in sectors such as energy, infrastructure, agriculture, and telecommunications [2] - The collaboration between Chinese capital and Latin American countries is based on long-term strategic alignment, project integration, and innovative local currency settlement paths, which may provide resilience against economic cycles [2]

新华财经北京7月3日电日本央行审议委员Hajime Takata在日本中部三重县向当地商界领袖发表演讲时警 告称，尽管面临美国可能提高关税的压力，日本央行的加息周期仅会"短暂暂停"，之后将重启。Takata 维持其鹰派立场，认为在经历一段"观望期"后，应继续调整政策方向以应对经济变化。 面对美国总统特朗普提出的将关税提高至35%的威胁，Takata指出，即便在这种不确定性增加的背景 下，日本央行仍在寻找进一步加息的机会，以响应美国政策的变化，并重新回到加息周期。他强调，鉴 于当前高度不确定性的存在，央行需要更加灵活地执行货币政策，避免过度悲观。 然而，与Takata的乐观态度不同，日本央行行长植田和男则表现得更为谨慎。他多次强调核心通胀率仍 低于2%的目标，并希望看到明确上行趋势后再考虑重启加息。此外，他还关注美国贸易政策对日本经 济潜在影响的规模。 值得注意的是，尽管日本的通胀增速处于G7最高水平，且关键生活成本指标创下两年新高，但日本央 行对于近期由食品特别是大米价格上涨导致的通胀飙升持审慎态度。央行行长植田和男认为这种压力将 会消散，因此并未计划改变政策利率。 在全球主要央行纷纷因通胀而加息的大环境下， ...

Core Viewpoint - Haitong International projects that Xiaomi's YU7 may achieve monthly deliveries exceeding 40,000 units by the end of the year, despite a slight decline in June sales [1] Industry Summary - Major automakers in China are launching promotional discounts to capture market share as they report June sales figures [1] - The competitive landscape is expected to shift towards service upgrades, quality and price balance, and technological advancements as regulatory pressures increase [1] Company Summary - Xiaomi's automobile sales in June surpassed 25,000 units, reflecting a month-over-month decline of approximately 3,000 units [1] - The YU7 model was launched on June 26, securing over 240,000 orders within 18 hours, indicating strong market interest [1] - The main challenge for Xiaomi lies in the delivery process, with the pace of the factory's second-phase capacity release being a critical variable [1]