记者从市房地产中介协会获悉，今年上半年，深圳房地产市场好于去年同期。一手商品住宅成交15101 套，较去年同期增长24.4%；二手房录得35106套，较去年同期增长30.7%，整体保持较好运行态势。 2025年6月，全市预售新房共成交2054套。2025年上半年，预售新房成交16522套，较2024年上半年同期 增长11.9%，其中住宅成交15101套，较去年同期增长24.4%。 同时，二手房在售量持续增加。截至2025年6月30日，全市有效在售二手房源73858套，对比上月同期增 加2067套，环比增长2.9%。从月度走势看，在春节假期复工后，市场二手房在售量呈现持续增长态 势，业主出售意愿在增强。 记者了解到，今年上半年，二手房成交以刚需为主，改善需求逐步释放。据统计，今年上半年成交小于 90平方米的房源占总量55.9%，小面积房源仍是市场成交主力，但对比2024年上半年61.4%的占比看， 有明显下滑，反映出改善型需求在逐步释放。 （文章来源：深圳商报） 据市房地产中介协会统计，2025年6月，全市二手房录得5546套，环比下降3.2%，同比增长4.5%。上半 年二手房市场呈现"凸"形走势，春节假期结束 ...

A 11 1/1 3 FA 8 %3 k t was a 祝宝良进一步分析，当前经济运行中的物价持续下行反映出内需疲弱、信心不足、企业流动性紧张、资产负债表受损等问题，需要通过更强财政手段进行干 预。 住房和城乡建设部原副部长仇保兴认为，中国房地产调控政策仍具备显著实施空间，其制度优势集中体现于央地协同的综合调控体系，当前亟待系统性提升 政策工具运用能力，破解部分地方政府存在的路径依赖问题。 仇保兴强调，在存量房去化领域，保障房供给模式已具备转向收储机制的一定条件，其实施路径需突破三重障碍：第一，市场化定价工具缺失导致的资产保 值与去库存目标冲突；第二，地方住建系统"重开发轻盘活"的职能惯性；第三，商业地产转型的制度空白。 仇保兴指出，从长效动能释放视角，需着力激活三大要素流动引擎：第一，建立社保跨区流转机制，释放亿级流动人口住房消费潜力；第二，创新老旧社区 自主重建模式，以产权年限延长与容积率补偿政策撬动社会资本；第三，发展农房长期租赁市场，通过"20+10"租约制与租金管控机制保障居住权益，预计 年均带动投资规模达四万亿元。 中国人民大学国际关系学院教授金灿荣指出，虽然国际形势复杂多变，但发生对中国构成重 ...

同样是120多平的房子，现在的新盘，客厅加餐厅能干到50平米，大阳台恨不得能开派对！ 你敢相信这是122平的户型吗？做了三个卫生间，三个卫生间啊。 还是一个大横厅设计，如果家里人多，客厅完全可以再开出来一个书房。 这就是第四代住宅的魅力。你让那些二手房怎么活？ 你再看看前几年那些140多平的所谓"豪宅"，客厅餐厅挤一块儿才30多平，阳台小得可怜，站俩人转身 都费劲。这差距，明眼人一看就懂，对吧？ 关键问题来了：现在新房子品质蹭蹭涨，但价格呢？有些地方可能微涨了点，但这点涨幅，跟品质提升 的幅度比起来，简直不值一提！ 这就导致了一个啥情况？买房的人现在都精了，他们拿新房的品质和价格当尺子，去量二手房。一比 划，心里那杆秤就歪了。 比如，你看中一个地段，新房143平，实打实套内143平（现在流行零公摊或者低公摊），总价300万。 旁边同地段有个二手房，也标着143平，但公摊吃掉了不少，实际套内可能就114平，房东要价280万。 你掐指一算：新房每平套内单价300万/143≈2.1万，二手房呢？280万/114≈2.45万！ 实际单价二手比新房还贵！更别提新房小区环境更好、楼间距更宽、电梯更快、物业更智能。 你说， ...

Group 1 - The national strategy for the real estate market in the second half of the year includes building a new development model and optimizing existing policies to promote the construction of "good houses" [1] - The Beijing meeting emphasized that housing issues are crucial for both people's livelihoods and economic development, advocating for a strategic approach to avoid repeating past mistakes [3] - The meeting signaled the need to accelerate the establishment of a multi-supply housing system and improve the housing security system, focusing on supporting young talents and recent graduates [4][6] Group 2 - The focus on a "guarantee + market" housing supply system aims to meet diverse housing needs, particularly for young people and new citizens, ensuring they can afford quality housing [6] - There is significant potential for the real estate market to develop further, with an emphasis on releasing market potential and promoting the construction of "good houses" [6][10] - Policy adjustments may include relaxing restrictions on non-local buyers and providing incentives for families with multiple children, which could positively impact market expectations and stabilize the economy [8] Group 3 - The renovation of old residential areas is seen as both a social necessity and a new economic growth point, with a focus on improving living conditions and enhancing property quality [10] - The trend towards "good houses" is gaining traction, particularly in the context of improving housing for families with greater needs, emphasizing the importance of location near public transport [10]

下半年，宏观政策将加大货币财政政策力度及其协同配合，推动新动能稳步成长，保持经济稳定增长和 物价处于合理水平，高质量实现既定经济增长目标。 当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻，世界经济增长动能减弱，贸易壁垒增多，主要经济体经济表现有所分化， 通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性。我国经济稳中有进，各地区各部门加紧实施更加积极有为的宏 观政策，着力扩大国内需求，推进科技创新和产业创新融合，有效应对外部变化。下半年，宏观政策将 加大货币财政政策力度及其协同配合，推动新动能稳步成长，保持经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平， 高质量实现既定经济增长目标。 展望一：新质生产力加速成长 新质生产力是中国经济高质量发展的动力源。2023年，我国战略性新兴产业增加值占国内生产总值 （GDP）超过13%，到2025年该比重有望超过17%。 上半年，我国加大力度培育新质生产力，战略性新兴产业与未来产业发展不断取得新的成果，对内需增 长做出了积极贡献。一是在政策支持和市场需求的双重驱动下，半导体产业延续了向上周期。2025年中 国半导体市场规模预计突破1800亿美元，占全球30%，国产化率有望提升至50%。二是人工智能领域发 展迅速。国产大模型表 ...

今年上半年，千亿房企阵营再度收缩。 据中指院数据，2025年1-6月百强房企销售总额为18364.1亿元，同比下降11.8%；权益销 售额为12812.7亿元，权益销售面积为6570.6万平方米。 而曾经被视为规模房企门槛的"千亿销售额"，如今成为不少公司难以逾越的高峰。 2025年上半年，销售额超千亿房企仅剩4家，较去年同期减少2家。具体来看，上半年仅保利 发展、中海地产、华润置地、招商蛇口四家房企销售额突破千亿关口。 其中，保利发展以1452亿元销售额守住第一的位置，绿城中国、中海地产紧随其后，销售额 分别为1221亿元和1201.3亿元，华润置地以1103亿元位列第四。 同时，行业洗牌速度超过市场预期， 曾经的行业龙头万科已滑出前五，以686亿元销售额降 至行业第七 ，而一些央国企凭借融资优势和稳健经营，销售业绩上升明显。 湘财证券数据显示，今年1-6月，中国金茂、越秀地产、建发房产2025年以来销售业绩表现 优异，这三家公司全口径累计销售金额分别同比增加7%、10.8%以及19.6%。 尽管上半年房企整体业绩表现欠佳， 但从单月销售情况来看，房企6月单月的部分销售指标， 较5月略有好转 。 面对行业深 ...

陆挺认为，首先要进一步稳定居民的财富水平，特别是稳定股市和楼市，中国居民大量财富集中于房地产，房 地产稳定了老百姓才有消费的底气。 近日，野村证券中国首席经济学家陆挺接受了证券时报·券商中国记者采访。在采访中，针对消费、房地产 问题都进行了深入的讨论。 陆挺表示，以旧换新政策帮助了全国消费在前5个月实现了较好的增长，但是从中长期来看，促进消费还需要 更多变革，比如进一步稳定股市和楼市，稳定居民财富；改善当下收入以及未来的收入预期；优化财富分配， 适当提高农村养老金水平；发挥各地主观能动性，像"苏超"一样创造更多消费场景。 对于房地产，陆挺表示，稳定房地产市场不仅需要降息和取消限购等传统工具，更重要的是推动房地产市场债 务的出清。从过去几十年世界各国处理金融危机和房地产危机的经验来看，以中央财政为基础，由中央政府出 面进行大规模市场清理，是应对此类危机的关键。 提升消费需要进一步完善社保体系 国家统计局数据显示，中国5月社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%，比上月加快1.3个百分点。5月消费增速创 下2024年以来新高，消费品以旧换新政策是重要原因之一。陆挺及研究团队此前上调了对2025年全年中国GDP 增长的预 ...

Group 1: Dollar Depreciation and Global Financial Trends - The dollar is expected to depreciate by over 10% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest decline for this period since 1973 [1] - Despite the dollar's depreciation, central bank leaders believe that its status as the world's reserve currency is unlikely to change in the short term, with the dollar accounting for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves compared to 20% for the euro [1] - The market sentiment often diverges from actual performance, as evidenced by the strong performance of the US stock market despite predictions of a declining dollar [3] Group 2: Real Estate Market Concerns - A report from a major overseas bank indicates that real estate demand may decline by an additional 50%, which could significantly impact consumption and investment, given that approximately 60% of wealth is concentrated in real estate [5] Group 3: A-share Market Resilience - A-share market shows signs of resilience, with ETF fund flows shifting from net outflows to net inflows since June 13, indicating that smart money is quietly positioning itself [6] - The relationship between real estate and stock market investments suggests that as real estate becomes less attractive, funds will seek new opportunities in the stock market [8] Group 4: Retail Investor Challenges - Retail investors often fall into cognitive traps, such as equating stock price movements with trading activity, which can lead to misinterpretations of market trends [10] - The phenomenon of institutional buying not leading to stock price increases highlights the importance of trading activity over mere holding volume [10] - In a volatile market, institutions are continuously testing and adjusting their strategies, which can provide insights into the quality of their holdings [12] Group 5: Recommendations for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors are advised to focus on building their own investment analysis frameworks and utilizing professional quantitative tools to better understand market dynamics [14] - Emphasizing patience and discipline is crucial in navigating the complexities of the current financial landscape, where valuable data often lies in the details [14]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in the competitive landscape of Guangdong's real estate sector, with a notable increase in the presence of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) among the top firms [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Concentration and Competitiveness - The market concentration among the top 100 real estate firms in Guangdong has decreased, with their sales accounting for 73.1% of the total provincial sales in 2024, down from 84.3% in 2020 [3][7] - The proportion of central SOEs among the top 10 firms has increased from 40% in 2020 to 80% in 2025, indicating a growing dominance of state-owned entities in the market [3][4] - Only 4 out of the top 10 firms from 2020 remain in the 2025 report, reflecting a significant turnover in the competitive landscape [3][4] Group 2: Financial Performance and Trends - The average revenue of listed real estate firms in Guangdong for 2024 is projected to be 773.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing financial pressure [10][12] - The average gross profit margin for these firms has declined to 8.09% in 2024, down 6.84 percentage points from the previous year, highlighting the challenges in maintaining profitability [10][12] - The average net profit for listed firms remains negative at -4.11 billion yuan, with some leading firms managing to maintain stable margins due to cautious investment strategies [12][13] Group 3: Land Acquisition and Investment Strategies - In 2024, the total land acquisition amount for typical firms in Guangdong was 143.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.6% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in land purchases [8][9] - The land acquisition strategy remains focused on major cities, with Guangzhou and Shenzhen accounting for 55.6% and 36.9% of total land acquisition amounts, respectively [9][8] - The proportion of land acquisition by central SOEs is 59%, while local state-owned enterprises have increased their share to 35% [8][9] Group 4: Market Outlook and Future Trends - The report suggests that while the rapid growth phase of the real estate market has ended, demand in Guangdong will remain substantial due to urbanization and population growth [13] - The market is expected to experience further differentiation, with core cities continuing to thrive while smaller cities may face challenges [13]

2025年已过半，国内房地产市场整体呈现平稳态势。据中指研究院监测，在去年一揽子政策支持下，房 地产市场延续修复态势，止跌回稳取得一定成效。年初以来，市场恢复更多集中于核心城市，"好城市 +好房子"表现出较强韧性，土地市场也有所恢复，但二季度以来市场边际有所减弱。 千亿销售房企数减少 数据显示，今年上半年，销售额前100位房企，共计销售1.84万亿元，同比下降11.8%，降幅较1—5月扩 大1个百分点。其中，6月份，TOP100房企销售额同比下降18.5%，较5月单月降幅扩大1.2个百分点。 根据房企销售额排序，TOP10房企主要以央国企为主，其中，保利发展、绿城中国、中海地产为前三， 分别销售1452亿元、1221亿元、1201.4亿元。位列第十的滨江集团销售额为527.5亿元。这也是唯一进入 销售额前十的民营房企。 今年上半年，销售总额超千亿房企共计4家，较去年同期减少2家，百亿房企46家，较去年同期增加2 家。TOP100房企权益销售额为1.28万亿元，权益销售面积为6570.6万平方米。 2025年上半年，包括保利发展、中海地产和绿城中国等20家代表房企，47.8%的销售业绩来源于二线城 市，为主要业 ...