如何看待反内卷进程？ 当前光伏投资机会展望 20250710 摘要 Q&A 光伏行业目前的供给侧改革进展如何？ 多晶硅行业通过 CPI 年度大会及月度例会，对企业生产配额进行管控， 旨在恢复产业链报价并降低开工率，类似于 OPEC 模式，通过行政手段 干预市场供需关系。 协鑫科技提出产能并购整合方案，通过金融机构支持，头部公司联合并 购低效产能，以实现产能出清和可控，该方案已获政府确认并推进。 近期多晶硅价格显著上涨，n 型居民料报价从 33.5 元/公斤上涨至 40 元 /公斤，预计本周内最高报价可能达到 45 元/公斤，安泰科对报价的严格 要求进一步支撑价格上涨趋势。 光伏需求总体稳定，地面电站需求受集中式项目企稳支撑，工商业分布 式项目自发自用未受政策影响，海外需求预计自 7 月起环比复苏，出口 退税取消政策亦有助推作用。 2025 年 7 月全行业多晶硅排产为 10.4 万吨，环比小幅上升，主要由于 云南地区丰水期产能复产，预计八九月份西南、西北地区部分产能将持 续复产。 哪些光伏标的值得关注？ 多晶硅价格未来几个月的走势如何？ 多晶硅价格预计将继续上涨。根据 SMM 官方报价，上周 n 型居民料报价 ...

地产 如何看待 Q3 交易节奏？20250710 摘要 截至 6 月，多数城市房价跌破去年 9 月水平，4-6 月 50 城房价持续下跌。 预计 7 月中央城市工作会议和政治局会议前后，市场对交易层面的宽松 政策将有所预期，同时地产板块估值滞涨存在补涨需求。 常规政策如放松限购、调整首付比例、降息及税收优惠效果可能有限。 超常规政策可参考海外经验，如深度降息、量化宽松及中央加杠杆。结 构性工具若指向房贷，如提供更低利率再贷款，或公积金贷款利率大幅 下降，可刺激购房需求。 城中村改造货币化安置值得期待，住建部提出的 100 万套改造计划集中 在一二线城市，若完全落实，可形成数万亿资金支持。此外，发行特别 债券或中央财政支持也可提高家庭贷款额度。 二季度市场数据挑战政策目标，预计三季度持续存在宽松预期，形成交 易窗口，主要节点在 7 月和 9 月。7 月交易级别可能低于 9 月，因压力 相对较小，政策对冲动能也较小。 2025 年二季度宏观经济数据表现尚可，GDP 实际增速超过 5%，消费 和出口维持较好水平。产业数据虽有恶化，但未触及政策阈值，7 月大 力度宽松政策必要性不高。 Q&A 如何看待今年第三季度房地 ...

光伏行业当前的供需情况呈现出明显的割裂状态。从需求端来看，电力投资企 业在电价和电量不确定的前提下趋于谨慎，导致下游装机增长存在疑问。虽然 难以得出明确结论，但市场需要时间来验证未来能否维持高增长。而从供给端 来看，产能过剩已成为共识。硅料作为光伏产业链中的关键环节，其产量决定 了下游产能的实际规模。如果硅料供应不足，下游产能将无法充分发挥。此外， 组件价格也受到政策干预，通过锁定成本价格来支撑上游环节。这种双重干预 使得市场表现出冰火两重天的状态。 政策对光伏行业有何影响？ 政策对光伏行业产生了显著影响。首先，通过计划经济手段干预市场，以加速 产能出清并决定哪些主体能够留存。例如，136 号文具有划时代意义，它使得 未来电力投资企业的电价发生变化，并呈下降趋势。同时，通过政策干预，希 望以组件为代表的新规产业链环节能够实现盈利，从而快速完成供给侧改革。 然而，这种政策之间双手互搏的情况导致市场出现割裂，一方面要求度电成本 更低，另一方面要求系统成本更高。这种矛盾使得市场处于前所未有的不确定 状态。 硅料产业专家交流 20250710 摘要 光伏行业正经历政策与市场双重干预，一方面通过计划经济手段加速产 能出 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-07-11 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3123 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 60 元/吨（1.958%）。当日注册仓单 54625 吨, 环比增加 9720 吨。主力合约持仓量为 223.0035 万手，环比增加 55094 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3190 元/吨, 环比增加 30 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3262 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 72 元/吨（2.257%）。 当日注册仓单 64587 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 159.7104 万手，环比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The newly revised Mineral Resources Law, effective from July 1, 2025, represents a comprehensive and systematic overhaul of the existing law, providing a strong legal guarantee for the high-quality development of China's mining industry in the new era [1] Legislative Process - The Mineral Resources Law was originally established in 1986 and has undergone partial amendments in 1996 and 2009. The 1986 law laid the foundation for rapid development in the mining sector during the reform and opening-up period by ensuring state ownership and rational development of mineral resources [3] - The need for reform has been recognized due to emerging issues in the mining sector, such as the need for a robust national mineral resource security system and the lack of institutional confirmation for market-oriented reforms. This has led to multiple proposals for amendments from various stakeholders since 2008 [4] Policy Background - The central government has emphasized the importance of mineral resource security and development, with directives from President Xi Jinping to enhance exploration efforts and improve the level of resource development and protection. Various policy documents have been issued to support the revision of the Mineral Resources Law [5] Key Institutional Considerations - The revised law incorporates principles of national security, market-oriented reforms, and ecological sustainability. It expands from 7 chapters and 53 articles to 8 chapters and 80 articles, establishing a legal framework that aligns with the new requirements for high-quality development in the mining sector [8] - A new mineral resource security system is established to enhance risk prevention and ensure national mineral resource safety [9] - The law aims to improve the paid transfer system for mineral resources, defining rights related to exploration and mining, and establishing a competitive bidding process for mining rights [9] - It addresses long-standing issues related to land use in mining, ensuring that land planning considers mining needs and establishing a system for land acquisition for strategic mineral resources [9] Modern Management and Environmental Protection - The law enhances the management of mineral exploration and extraction through various systems, including a streamlined approval process and incentives for responsible mining practices [10] - It emphasizes ecological restoration in mining areas, mandating government oversight and establishing clear responsibilities for ecological rehabilitation [10] Conclusion - The revised Mineral Resources Law institutionalizes the directives from the central government regarding high-quality development in the mining sector, aiming to stabilize expectations and promote long-term benefits for the industry [11]

必读要闻一：不止是硅片硅料！光伏组件含税含运均价也迎来上调 据SMM数据显示，7月9日，光伏组件含税含运均价上调，上调幅度0.3%-1.5%不等。此外，据市场消息显示，多家硅片企业上调了硅片报价，不同尺寸的硅 片价格涨幅在8%—11.7%。业内人士反馈，本次硅片报价上调的主要原因是上游硅料涨价引发的传导效应；但是，由于国内光伏市场终端需求增速放缓，下 游电池环节能否接受本次硅片提价还有待观察。 组件涨价的决心背后，是资本对供给侧改革落地预期的持续升温。数据显示，硅料现货价格已经连续两周上涨。上游环节成本上涨通过产业链直接传导至下 游，直接抬升组件生产成本。申港证券刘宁认为，从目前的情况来看，光伏行业破除"内卷式"竞争，是当前政策与企业自救的重要议题，有望推动从"价格 血拼"向"优质优价"转型。国联民生证券张磊预计光伏供需关系或将于2026年出现实质性改善，2027-2028年陆续恢复至合理供需比。 必读要闻二：华为智能辅助驾驶总里程超30亿公里 必读要闻三：开启万物智联新时代，产业有望迎来机遇期 据媒体报道，如今，5g进入"价值挖掘"的深水区，伴随着人工智能迅速崛起，低空经济、卫星互联网等领域兴起，国家之间围 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities emphasizes that driving price recovery in the photovoltaic (PV) industry is an effective measure and an important first step towards achieving "anti-involution" in the sector [1][6] Price Recovery and Market Dynamics - A reasonable recovery in the industry chain prices is seen as a key method for "anti-involution" and a prerequisite for supply-side reform [2] - The current "anti-involution" initiative aims to address low-price disorderly competition among companies, with market regulation being a direct demand and supply-side reform as a medium to long-term goal [2] - Recent price increases in silicon materials have reached approximately 45,000 yuan per ton, marking a 25% increase, while N-type materials have seen a 6%-7% rise in average transaction prices [2][3] Impact on Supply Chain and Competition - The price increases are expected to have a cascading effect down the supply chain, with N-type silicon wafer prices rising by 8%-12% due to upstream silicon material price adjustments [2] - The differentiation in pricing among manufacturers is anticipated, with lower-cost producers gaining market advantages while higher-cost firms may face inventory buildup and financial strain [3] Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the immediate effects of price recovery, achieving the exit of outdated production capacity and restructuring the supply side will not be a quick process [4] - The industry is currently experiencing a slowdown in demand growth, particularly after a recent surge in installations, which may limit the tolerance for price increases in the supply chain [4] - A substantial improvement in market supply-demand relationships is necessary for further price recovery in the industry chain [4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on leading companies within the PV main industry chain that possess long-term competitiveness and the potential for price and volume recovery as the industry undergoes capacity reduction [6]

Group 1 - The core objective of the "anti-involution" policy is to address low-price and disorderly competition, guiding companies to enhance product quality and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity, thereby optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure to improve China's global economic and industrial competitiveness [1] - The "anti-involution" policy shares similarities with the supply-side structural reform initiated in 2015, focusing on technological innovation, product differentiation, and sustainable development of the industrial chain [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic context for "anti-involution" is more complex compared to previous reforms, and it encompasses a broader range of industries, including emerging sectors like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, in addition to traditional industries [2] - The focus of the "anti-involution" policy is on enhancing domestic core competitiveness and transitioning from quantity competition to quality improvement, emphasizing green and low-carbon transformation [2] - The policy measures for "anti-involution" are more diversified and rely on the construction of a unified national market, emphasizing legal frameworks and fair competition, unlike the more administrative measures used in the supply-side structural reform [2] Group 3 - Both the 2015 supply-side structural reform and "anti-involution" aim to resolve structural issues in the economy, optimizing resource allocation and improving economic quality and efficiency [3] - The supply-side structural reform was primarily focused on eliminating ineffective low-end supply and optimizing economic structure, while "anti-involution" addresses the challenges of disordered low-price competition that harms cash flow and industry health [3] - The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to have a longer duration, focusing on long-term institutional construction to enhance industry competitiveness [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel industry is facing challenges from "involution" competition, necessitating a collective effort from both the steel and automotive sectors to prioritize industry benefits over individual company interests [1] Group 1: Industry Challenges - The steel industry is experiencing intensified homogenization competition, leading to declining product prices and an imbalanced market structure [1] - The black industrial chain is facing a significant imbalance in profit distribution, with steel mills overly reliant on low raw material prices, while coal companies are struggling with losses due to three consecutive years of price declines [2] - The midstream trading sector lacks a "buffer" function, exacerbating short-term price volatility and hindering long-term industry stability [2] Group 2: Strategic Recommendations - To combat "involution," the focus should be on optimizing demand structure and restructuring profit distribution mechanisms to facilitate a transition towards high-quality development [2] - The current "反内卷" (anti-involution) movement emphasizes market mechanisms and industry self-discipline, promoting an increase in electric arc furnace steelmaking and technological upgrades for efficiency and green transformation [1] - The industry has made progress in capacity regulation and the exit of outdated capacity, but market supply and demand remain mismatched due to fluctuations in terminal demand [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The "反内卷" movement is becoming a key variable influencing future market trends, with black commodity prices at relatively low levels and significant price elasticity [3] - The sustainability of the anti-involution trend will depend on the introduction of specific policies targeting the steel industry [2][3] - Without substantial policy measures, there is a risk of market sentiment cooling, which could lead to price volatility [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating," with short - term prices expected to be on the stronger side [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - Macro - favorable news such as "anti - involution," Shanxi's crude steel reduction, and "urban renewal" has fermented, leading to a significant upward movement in prices. The market is dominated by macro - policy imagination during the off - season. The fundamentals have no significant contradictions, and the rally in the futures market has spurred downstream restocking, causing spot prices to rise in resonance. In the short term, prices are expected to run strongly [1][2]. - The expectation of a new round of supply - side reform for steel is increasing, and the warming market sentiment has spurred speculative demand, forming a positive feedback for the industrial chain. Against the backdrop of decent spot fundamentals, the futures market is expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [6]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The market sentiment is good, and the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations [2]. Carbon Element - In Shanxi, the coal mines affected by previous accidents are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production. Overall, supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [6]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal and a high - level urban renewal meeting has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [6]. Steel - The supply - side contraction expectation formed by the "anti - involution" policy and Shanxi's production - limit news, as well as the demand - side improvement expectation such as "urban renewal," have jointly promoted the futures market to be strong. After the futures rally, spot trading sentiment has improved. This week, the supply and demand of rebar have both decreased, and inventory has continued to decline; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both decreased, and inventory has slightly increased; the supply and demand of the five major steel products have both decreased, and inventory changes are limited, with the absolute inventory at a relatively low level over the years. In the short term, with the warming of the macro - sentiment and no obvious negative factors in the fundamentals, steel prices are expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume has decreased. From the fundamental perspective, overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter volume rush this week, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but fallen short of expectations, and there may be a concentrated arrival in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Steel mills' profitability has slightly improved, and the iron - making volume has decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrivals and high demand, port inventories have slightly decreased, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. With good market sentiment and decent fundamentals, the futures price is expected to run strongly with oscillations. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise rather than fall [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The fundamentals are stable, and the price is oscillating. The apparent demand and production of rebar have slightly decreased, in line with off - season characteristics, and the total inventory has continued to decline, indicating some resilience in off - season demand. After the market sentiment has warmed up, raw material prices have risen significantly, and the futures price has oscillated upward. This week, the average daily arrival volume of scrap steel has slightly increased but is still lower than the same period last year, and resources are slightly tight. After the rise in steel prices, the profitability of some electric furnaces has recovered, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased; the iron - making volume of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also decreased. Although the arrival volume has slightly increased this week, the daily consumption is at a relatively high level in the same period, and factory inventories have slightly decreased [10]. Coke - The futures price of coke has strengthened following coking coal. On the supply side, most coke enterprises are maintaining normal production, while a small number of enterprises with poor profitability have reduced production, and coke production has slightly decreased. On the demand side, the average daily iron - making volume has decreased this week but remains at a high level year - on - year. Steel mills' profitability is good, and they are actively restocking. Recently, the futures market has been strong, and arbitrage demand has been actively purchasing, leading to a rapid reduction in coke inventories of coke enterprises. The current supply - demand pattern of coke has further improved. In the short term, coke prices are likely to rise rather than fall under the strong pull of raw coal prices [10][11][13]. Coking Coal - Market sentiment has been high, and coking coal prices have continued to rise. On the supply side, coal mines affected by previous accidents in Shanxi are gradually resuming supply, but some mines in Shanxi and Shaanxi are still reducing production, and overall supply is slowly recovering. At the import end, the Mongolia - China border will be closed for 5 days starting tomorrow due to the Naadam Festival, but recent customs clearance has been at a high level, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production has slightly decreased, and there is still short - term rigid demand for coking coal. Downstream procurement sentiment is positive, and the coking coal trading atmosphere is good. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent at present, and attention should be paid to coal mine resumption and Mongolian coal imports. Upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories, and the positive market sentiment remains, so the futures market is expected to be supported in the short term [11][12][13]. Glass - The news of stronger - than - expected urban renewal has driven up the futures price. In the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. Although downstream restocking at the beginning of the month has led to good production and sales, the sustainability is to be observed. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is still on the rise. Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. The market is waiting and seeing. In the short term, one should wait and see the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, downstream expectations may improve, leading to a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long run, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [14]. Soda Ash - The supply - side over - supply pattern has not changed. The market has spread the news of "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry, with an expected significant reduction in daily melting, and the current daily melting of photovoltaic glass has slightly decreased, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with weak demand expectations. The downstream demand for light soda ash is weak, and manufacturers have continued to cut prices. Sentiment is interfering with the futures market, and the long - term over - supply pattern is difficult to change. Although the short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, the over - supply problem still exists after the positive feedback. Enterprises are advised to seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and in the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [6][14][16]. Manganese Silicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia has caused the manganese silicon futures price to open and close higher, but this news has been proven false. Port inventories have slightly increased, and with the arrival of low - priced ores in the future, there is still room for ore prices to decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon is becoming looser, and it is more difficult to reduce inventories. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector [3][6][16]. Ferrosilicon - The sharp rise in coking coal futures prices has raised expectations of an increase in energy prices, strengthening the cost support for ferrosilicon. Recently, the sentiment in the black chain has been positive, and the news of peak - period power rationing and the cancellation of electricity subsidies in Ningxia and Qinghai has caused the ferrosilicon futures price to rise strongly, but this news has been proven false. During the steel tender period, the amount of low - priced goods in the market has decreased, and the strong futures market has driven up the spot price. The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened. The supply of ferrosilicon is increasing. The downstream demand for steelmaking remains resilient. Attention should be paid to the price of this round of steel tenders. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the sector. However, there is a possibility of filling the supply - demand gap in the future, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of ferrosilicon's electricity cost [18][19].