助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 沪铜产业日报 2025/5/13 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 78,090.00 490.00 | -170.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) +20.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 9,556.50 181,940.00 | +36.00↑ -5790.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | 10,832.00 | +5188.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 190,750.00 | -1025.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 80,705.00 | -8602.0 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has postponed its expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates until the end of the year and has lowered the probability of a U.S. recession [1] - The European Central Bank will maintain its aggressive stimulus policies from the past decade during its strategic assessment, avoiding calls for self-criticism after experiencing high inflation and significant losses [1] - Traders have reduced their bets on the Bank of England, expecting the rate cut to be less than 50 basis points by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Masayoshi Amamiya, stated that if the global economy shows signs of recovery, Japan's economy is likely to rebound, which would enhance overall inflation and inflation expectations [1] - Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, plans to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during the upcoming G7 meeting in Canada to discuss foreign exchange issues [1] - The Chinese yuan's midpoint against the U.S. dollar was raised by 75 points to 7.1991, marking the highest level since April 7, 2025, with the largest increase since January 21, 2025 [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1.8 trillion yuan seven-day reverse repurchase operation today, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [1]

Group 1 - The eurozone benchmark German government bond yield has risen to a one-month high, indicating a significant decrease in market expectations for an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) [2] - ECB Governing Council member Schnabel stated that the central bank should stop cutting rates due to rising price pressures from global economic turmoil, with inflation potentially exceeding the 2% target in the medium term [2] - The market anticipates the ECB's deposit rate in December to be 1.75%, higher than previous expectations of 1.55% to 1.67% [2] Group 2 - The euro to USD exchange rate is facing strong resistance at 1.1570 and is currently testing key trend support, with downside risks accumulating near the 50-day moving average at 1.1070 [3] - The currency pair has formed a series of lower highs and lows over the past month, indicating a weakening upward momentum, confirmed by the daily MACD indicator [3] - If the support at the 50-day moving average around 1.1070 is breached, further declines may occur, targeting the range of the March high of 1.1025 to 1.0950 [3]

欧洲央行管委警告 必须对下一步降息保持谨慎 金十数据5月13日讯，欧洲央行两名管委会成员表示，鉴于美国总统特朗普的经济政策存在高度不确定 性，欧洲央行在决定下一步利率举措时必须谨慎。欧洲央行管委内格尔和管委艾斯克里瓦强调了美国新 政府带来的挑战，包括在欧元区制定货币政策的困难。"我们在评估当前形势时需要保持谦逊，"艾斯克 里瓦表示，并补充称欧洲央行必须收集更多信息，"努力理清哪些因素占上风。"内格尔则表示："关于 货币政策的决定，重要的是要保持谨慎，不要过度强调可能很快改变的具体公告。" ...

欧洲央行管委内格尔：我们不应该对个别公告反应过度。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank have decreased, with the year-end deposit rate now projected to be 1.75%, up from 1.67% last Friday [1]

接受调查的经济学家认为，欧洲央行今年的降息幅度将超出此前预期，因通胀率到2026年初预计将低于 该行目标。一项月度调查显示，在七次下调利率25个基点后，欧洲央行可能在6月和9月进一步采取行 动。这将使存款利率从目前的2.25%降至1.75%。 ...

欧洲央行管委西姆库斯：欧洲央行6月份有必要降息。 ...

欧洲央行管委西姆库斯：尚不清楚6月份之后的降息是否会在7月或9月进行。 ...

欧洲央行管委Simkus：年初以来的地缘政治对经济来说是个坏消息。 欧元区的通货膨胀取决于欧盟对美国的报复。 通胀面临下行压力。 欧洲央行6月份的预测可能会更糟一些。 欧元走强将抑制通胀。 对于欧洲央行的利率，没有一个核心设想。 欧洲央行6月降息是必要的。 ...