为什么人口对经济的影响那么大？ 从事经济研究的人士研究人口变化，当然是为了看清楚人口对经济的影响，因为人口从出生到工作之前及 退休之后都属于被抚养人口，成为社会负担，只有在成为劳动力的这一阶段为家庭和社会做出贡献，包括 薪酬和税赋。 由于现在劳动年龄人口数量的变化取决于20年前后出生人口数量，那么，我们是否现在就可以计算出未来 中国劳动力的数量及抚养比例的变化？答案是肯定的。 例如，我国的第二次婴儿潮的时间是从1962-1974年，持续了12年，之后计划生育政策趋于严厉，出生人 口数量显著下降。由此带来1980-2010年这30年的人口抚养比大幅下降， 从平均每10个人养7个人降至每 10个人养3.4个人。 这轮超大的人口红利是改革开放前的鼓励生育政策和计划生育政策的合力结果，与此 对应的是1980-2010年的平均GDP增速在10%左右，累计增长约20倍。而同期美国只增长了2.8倍。 2010年以后，我国的人口抚养比例开始上升，GDP增速也从两位数降至个位数，如今已经降至5%，对应 的抚养比例升至10个人养4.8个人。预计到2050年进一步上升至6.8个人。抚养比例的上升，将增加家庭开 支和国家的财政压力。 ...

证券研究报告 | 固定收益研究*动态点评 2025 年 07 月 02 日 固定收益研究 市场一致预期的形成与央行对一致预期的引导 去年以来至今年年中，央行多次在货币政策委员会例会和货币政策执行报告 中表示要评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化，防止单边一致预期的 强化。这两年来，央行一直通过多种措施来积极引导市场合理预期。 比如去年央行多次通过发文和对农商行等市场参与主体进行窗口指导，甚至 禁止部分市场主体买入长债，以起到交易警示作用。去年 12 月 18 日央行约 谈了债市行情中部分交易激进的金融机构，要求加强债券投资稳健性；12 月 末，央行又对三家金融机构因债券市场违规行为开出了重磅罚单。 再比如去年四季度在政治局会议释放适度宽松的货币政策和年底机构抢配的 共同因素下，十年期国债利率直接从 2.1%附近击穿 2.0%的新低后又快速打 到了 1.6%左右。今年 1 月初，央行就通过流动性操作的边际变化来影响市场， 金融时报也开始提示避免对货币宽松政策过度解读。一季度，央行资金供给 继续紧平衡，连续回笼并减少投放，恰逢银行信贷"开门红"，资金需求体量 较大，使得资金利率一度攀升，DR007 一度维持 2 ...

Group 1 - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on creating a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in international expansion and explore collaborative transformation paths [1] - The summit was co-hosted by the Globalization Council of Chinese Enterprises, emphasizing the need for resource integration and dialogue on international rules amidst global industrial chain restructuring [1] Group 2 - Wei Jianguo, former Vice Minister of Commerce, highlighted the shift of the Chinese economy from factor-driven to rule-driven, suggesting three strategic steps for Chinese enterprises [3] - The first step involves proactively aligning with international trade rules, particularly the CPTPP and DEPA agreements, to enhance China's global trade engagement [3] - The second step focuses on improving the business environment by establishing policies for digital economy market access and expanding digital service trade in the telecommunications sector [3] - The third step aims to position China as a leader in digital and green economies, encouraging collaboration with other countries to develop international standards in these fields [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the approval of Bai Yushi as the president of Hengfeng Bank, emphasizing the importance of continuous learning and compliance awareness for senior management [2] - Bai Yushi has a strong academic background with a master's degree in economics and holds multiple professional certifications, including CPA, CFA, and FRM [2] - Since June 2022, Bai Yushi has held various positions within Hengfeng Bank, demonstrating a progressive career path in financial management [2] Group 2 - Hengfeng Bank has a total asset of 1.54 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 6.64% [4] - The bank achieved an operating income of 25.775 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.98%, and a net profit of 5.357 billion yuan, showing a growth of 4.30% [4] - The average return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) for the bank are 0.37% and 3.83%, respectively, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.49%, which has decreased by 0.23 percentage points since the beginning of the year [4]

流动性日报 | 2025-07-02 市场流动性概况 2025-07-01，股指板块成交4106.63亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.21%；持仓金额10034.62亿元，较上一交易日变动 +0.21%；成交持仓比为40.50%。 国债板块成交3200.69亿元，较上一交易日变动-11.61%；持仓金额8820.22亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.85%；成交 持仓比为36.65%。 基本金属板块成交2443.06亿元，较上一交易日变动-12.17%；持仓金额4165.17亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.71%； 成交持仓比为101.08%。 贵金属板块成交3018.92亿元，较上一交易日变动-29.62%；持仓金额4323.91亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.23%；成 交持仓比为73.66%。 能源化工板块成交3830.54亿元，较上一交易日变动-17.67%；持仓金额3926.70亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.32%； 成交持仓比为81.19%。 农产品板块成交2502.53亿元，较上一交易日变动-16.80%；持仓金额5479.43亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.40%；成交 持仓比为41.71%。 黑色建材板块成交210 ...

Group 1 - The core objective of Binzhou City is to narrow the urban-rural development gap and improve residents' living standards through a people-centered urbanization strategy [1] - The city is implementing a comprehensive reform of the household registration system, removing unnecessary restrictions to facilitate urban settlement for migrants [2] - A total of over 40,000 residence permits were issued to eligible migrants in 2023, supporting the urbanization of agricultural transfer populations [2] Group 2 - The city has introduced a cost-sharing mechanism for the urbanization of agricultural transfer populations, enhancing the basic pension insurance system and encouraging participation [2] - By integrating talent recruitment and retention mechanisms, the city has attracted 13,700 young talents and established two national postdoctoral research stations [2] - The city has initiated various programs to promote entrepreneurship among returning graduates and veterans, enhancing local employment opportunities [2] Group 3 - Binzhou City has established a collaborative platform for industry, education, and research, enhancing resource sharing and complementarity among various sectors [3] - The city has organized vocational skill competitions to promote skill development and has established 93 specialized classes in collaboration with local enterprises [3] - The employment rate for students in "order-based" training programs has reached 33%, indicating a strong alignment between education and industry needs [3] Group 4 - A new agricultural input distribution system has been developed, including a provincial agricultural input warehouse and multiple county-level distribution centers [4] - The city has implemented a land trusteeship model that has increased grain yield by 15% and reduced costs by approximately 100 yuan per mu [4] - A total of 1.04 billion yuan has been allocated to support seven agricultural projects through the cooperative development fund [4]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/7/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.51 | 14.09 | DR007 | 1.91 | 20.92 | | | GC001 | 1.46 | -68.00 | GC007 | 1.58 | -11.00 | | 10 GD | SHBOR 3M | 1.63 | -0.20 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | I | 1年期国债 | 1.34 | -0.50 | 5年期国债 | 1.49 | 0.50 | | N | 10年期国债 | 1.65 | 0.10 | 10年期美债 | 4.24 | -5.00 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了1310亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.40%,投标 量1 ...

智通财经APP获悉，希尔威金属矿业(SVM.US)周二收涨6.40%，报4.49美元，该股今年以来累计上涨 50%。 值得一提的是，公开资料显示，希尔威主要对白银、黄金、铅锌等有色金属和贵金属矿山进行收购、勘 探、开发和生产。该公司的EL Domo铜金矿项目已完成可行性研究报告，资源量为1010万吨，含有金属 量：金22.9吨、银438.2吨、铜20.8万吨、锌25.5万吨、铅2.3万吨，品位分别为金2.28g/t、银43.6g/t、铜 2.07%、锌2.55%、铅0.23%。该项目投资2.48亿美元，将建成一座可开采15年的露天/井下矿山，10年后 转为地下开采。目前该项目正在建设中，预计2026年下半年投产。 此外，分析人士认为，美国"大而美"法案投票过程中产生的乐观情绪可能是铜拉升的主要原因。另一方 面，美元指数跌破97大关，上半年跌幅超过10%，创下1973年以来的最差上半年表现。高盛目前预计美 联储将于2025年9月起实施三次25个基点的降息，而之前的预测是12月只进行一次降息。中长期美元流 动性有望持续宽松，利好有色金属。 消息面上，黄金连续第二个交易日上涨，一度上涨1.7%，进一步收复过去两周的 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of central bank monetary policy statements in revealing market expectations, particularly focusing on the "hawkish-dovish signals" from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan in 2025 [1] Group 1: Quantitative Decoding of Hawkish-Dovish Signals - The Federal Reserve's May 2025 statement highlighted a "no rush to cut rates" stance, removing the phrase "risks are roughly balanced," which led to a 1.5% fluctuation in gold T+D within one hour [3] - The European Central Bank's June 2025 statement omitted the term "restrictive" and lowered inflation forecasts, resulting in a 2.3% expansion in euro gold premiums [4] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rates in June 2025 but planned to gradually reduce government bond purchases starting in 2026, causing a 1.8% fluctuation in yen gold premiums [5] Group 2: Market Reaction Mechanisms - During the March 2025 U.S. stock market circuit breaker, the VIX index surged to 52.33, yet gold ETF holdings briefly flowed out, indicating a "pseudo-safe haven" sentiment in the market [6] - A divergence between the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI at 47.1 (contraction) and the Eurozone PMI at 48.5 (near expansion) in April 2025 led to a 10% pricing discrepancy between the dollar index and euro gold premiums, allowing for a strategy of "long COMEX gold + short Shanghai gold T+D" to capture exchange rate recovery with an annualized return of 12%-15% [7] Group 3: Practical Response Strategies - A keyword sensitivity model was developed using JPMorgan's AI model to analyze core terms such as "policy path," "inflation expectations," and "financial conditions," indicating that each additional mention of "upside inflation risk" in the Fed's statement increases the probability of a 3-5 basis point rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields by 62% [8] - In extreme market conditions, it is advised to reserve 30% margin redundancy and utilize "gold options strategies" to hedge volatility risks, with the cost of buying straddle options (strike price $3200/ounce) being 40% lower than simple holdings [9] - Monitoring the time lag between central bank policy statements and data releases is crucial; for instance, if the U.S. non-farm payroll data falls short of expectations by 150,000 after the Fed's June statement, gold may experience a rebound typically ranging from 1.5%-2.5% [10]

流动性进一步宽松，贵金属板块展望 20250701 摘要 特朗普政府关税威胁及非农数据下滑曾引发市场波动，推动金价上涨， 但贸易紧张局势缓解后金价高位横盘。关注 2025 年下半年，预计流动 性宽松和风险偏好上行将继续支撑金价。 大美丽法案预计未来十年增加 2.4 万亿美元财政赤字，短期内加剧债务 压力并削弱美元信用，利好黄金等贵金属。美国国会预算办公室预测该 法案将显著增加财政支出，进一步加剧美元信用担忧。 短期投资建议关注受益于流动性宽松和风险偏好上行的贵金属与工业金 属组合，如黄金与铜或白银组合，并关注中报可能业绩超预期的标的， 如山东黄金等公司。 调降银行资本杠杆率（SLR）以刺激银行购买美债的空间有限。即使放 松监管，每年增加的购债规模也远小于未来几年的巨额财政支出，化债 效果可能不明显。 稳定币与美债需求绑定，可能带来短期限国库券购买需求，但长期美债 需求仍是重点。新增需求可能被高估，实际效果有待观察。渣打银行预 测到 2028 年稳定币规模可达 2 万亿美元。 Q&A 2025 年上半年贵金属市场的表现如何？主要驱动因素是什么？ 2025 年上半年，黄金价格上涨了 24%，在 4 月 22 日达 ...