瑞士5月生产者/进口物价指数月率 -0.5%，前值0.10%。 ...

V i e w p o i n t | Limited signs of tariff impact in PPI prices CITI'S TAKE Producer prices rose a modest 0.1%MoM in May after declining (although with upward revisions) in April, suggesting still very limited signs of abnormally strong price increases due to tariffs. Of course, May could still be too soon to see much tariff impact on prices and we still expect to see higher goods prices by late-summer/early-fall. Goods prices in PPI could be even stronger than in CPI, reflecting a wider range of goods rat ...

当地时间6月13日，东京都议会选举进入拉票阶段，正式投票将于6月22日进行。 值得注意的是，东京都议会选举每4年举行一次，国会参议院改选每3年举行一次，今年恰逢两次选 举同一年举行，且前后相差30天左右。因此，今年的东京都议会选举被视为国会参议院改选的"前 奏"。 关注什么 2025.06. 15 本文字数：1918，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 潘寅茹 今夏，对于日本首相石破茂而言，将注定步履艰难。其间的重头戏便是7月底即将开始的参议院选 举。而在选举前，石破茂还需挺过有"日本大选风向标"之称的东京都议会选举。 随着选举日期的逐渐临近，石破茂在上周最新一次的发言中表示，将加薪和提振经济增长作为今夏选 举前的首要竞选承诺。根据石破茂的表述，他力争使得日本的名义国内生产总值（GDP）于2040年 达到1000万亿日元，并将平均工资在目前水平的基础上提高50%或更多。2024年日本的名义GDP达 到创纪录的609万亿日元。 目前，由于没有一个政党在拥有127席的东京都议会中占据绝对多数，因此，石破茂所在的自民党能 否保住现有议席，也就备受关注。 日本当地媒体上周的最新民调显示，石破的支持率上升了6个百分 ...

Core Insights - The release of Labubu's new products from the "THE MONSTERS" series by Pop Mart has led to a significant demand, resulting in immediate sellouts both online and offline [1][2][5] - The phenomenon of scalping has emerged, with scalpers using various methods to purchase the products in bulk and resell them at inflated prices, raising concerns about market order and consumer rights [2][5][6] Product Launch and Demand - On June 12, Pop Mart launched new products including the Labubu THE MONSTERS series figurines priced at 66 yuan and the Labubu shrimp earphone bag priced at 99 yuan, which sold out quickly [1] - The following day, the Labubu blind boxes were also sold out in physical stores and vending machines, indicating high consumer interest [1][2] Scalping and Market Impact - Reports indicate that scalpers are using software and occupying vending machines to buy out the products, leading to conflicts with regular consumers [2][3][4] - The resale prices for the THE MONSTERS series figurines range from 80 yuan to 1300 yuan, while the shrimp earphone bags are sold for over 100 yuan to more than 1000 yuan on secondary platforms [5] Legal Concerns and Recommendations - Legal experts have noted that the actions of scalpers may violate multiple laws, including the potential for criminal charges if the behavior is deemed severe [2][6][7] - Recommendations include implementing purchase limits and real-name verification on e-commerce platforms to curb scalping, as well as the need for legislative measures to define and penalize scalping behavior [6][7]

月度商品价格预测： 黄金区间震荡，铜、油震荡上行。 内需： 地产需求疲软，汽车有所改善；节后服务消费热度减退。 ①新房和乘用车回升、二手房走弱，家电月均销售价同比增速多数下跌。6月新房销量增速降幅略有收窄，而二手房延续价升量跌。商品消费中，乘用车零售由降 转升、而批发有所回落，半钢胎开工率回升。本周家电销售均价多数回升，6月月均销售价同比增速多数下跌。 ②节后服务消费热度减退。节后第一周，电影票房收入下降，同比增速再度转负，酒店平均每间可售房收入续降，同比降幅走扩；商圈人流指数延续小幅下行，但 同比增速略升；在天气因素的叠加影响下，本周上海迪士尼乐园客流明显下降，同比降幅有所走扩。 外需： "抢出口"力度趋弱，美国加征钢制家电关税。 核 心 内 容 ①6月高频出口数量指标全线回落，运价同比增速大幅下行，指向出口整体放缓。 ②由于担心7月对等关税到期的不确定性，美国集装箱预订有所回落，中国至美国集装箱到港周同比降至低位，而传统转口贸易地区港口停靠量周同比同样回落至 低位，指向整体抢出口力度趋弱。 ③韩国6月前10天出口同比增速回升，品类中半导体和船拉动明显。美对多种钢制家用电器加征50%的关税。 生产： 淡季特 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the growth in social financing scale driven primarily by government and corporate bonds, indicating a shift towards direct financing methods [1][2] - As of May 2025, the total social financing scale reached 426.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, remaining stable compared to the previous month [1] - The balance of loans to the real economy was 262.86 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 7%, but a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] Group 2 - Government bonds accounted for 20.5% of the total social financing scale, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 2.1 percentage points, while corporate bonds made up 7.7%, down 0.4 percentage points [1] - The net financing of government bonds in the first five months of 2025 reached 6.31 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.81 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [1][2] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has been a key factor in replacing bank loans, which may temporarily affect credit volume but ultimately helps alleviate local debt risks [3][4] Group 3 - The trend of bonds substituting loans is becoming more pronounced, with nearly 90% of the social financing scale consisting of bonds and loans, indicating their complementary roles in supporting economic stability [3] - The average yield of 5-year AAA-rated corporate bonds fell to 1.97% in May, encouraging companies to increase bond financing to lower overall financing costs [2][3] - The growth in fixed asset investment funding sources, including government bonds, increased by 16.7% year-on-year, significantly outpacing other funding sources [4] Group 4 - The broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, with a growth of 2.3% [5] - The manufacturing PMI improved by 0.5 percentage points in May, indicating a marginal recovery in social confidence and economic activity [5][6] - The consumer price index (CPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, while the core CPI rose by 0.6%, suggesting ongoing low inflation levels influenced by supply-demand imbalances [6]

进入2025年后，物价低位运行。CPI于1月份小幅反弹至0.5%，但随后两个月连续出现负增长，2月和3 月分别录得-0.2%和-0.1%的增速，4月小幅回升至-0.1%。 综合市场分析来看，今年以来，物价总体保持低位运行，国内实体经济供需矛盾是主要原因，国际能源 价格下降的外部输入性因素也有影响。 业内专家指出，近年来，我国经济结构加快转型升级，部分行业供给持续超过需求，这些因素对物价回 升都有一定影响。但支持物价回升的积极因素也在不断累积。各项宏观政策加力扩内需，政策效果逐步 显现。供给侧政策调整的作用也在不断增强，供需实现良性循环，对于促进物价回升将有积极作用。 值得注意的是，促进物价合理回升需要规范部分行业的过度竞争问题。市场专家指出，当前物价低位运 行与部分行业的内卷式竞争也有关系。近段时间，部分车企新一轮降价行为引发社会关注。钢铁工业协 会指出，汽车企业卷价格让上游钢铁企业也感受到了较大经营压力。 业内专家表示，如果一个行业只拼价格、不拼质量，卷没了合理的利润空间，不仅不利于企业技术创 新，也不利于保证产品质量，还可能把影响外溢到供应链上下游企业，导致整个产业链和行业低价过度 竞争；反垄断不仅要反哄 ...

德国5月批发物价指数年率 0.4%，前值0.8%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price index in Germany for May decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, compared to a previous value of -0.1% [1] Group 1 - The current wholesale price index indicates a continued decline in prices, suggesting potential deflationary pressures in the German economy [1]

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. for May showed a modest increase, with core PPI reaching its lowest level since August 2024, indicating that tariffs have not significantly pressured consumer and business prices [1][3] Group 1: PPI Overview - The PPI rose by only 0.1% month-over-month in May, below economists' expectations of 0.2%. Core PPI also increased by 0.1%, with goods prices (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.2% and service prices by 0.1% [3][5] - The report reflects a continuation of the mild performance seen in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the past four months, suggesting that the impact of tariff increases on the American public has been relatively subdued so far [3][5] Group 2: Profit Margins and Price Trends - Wholesale and retail profit margins expanded in May, particularly in the vehicle and machinery wholesale sectors, following a contraction in April. This indicates that businesses are absorbing tariff costs without passing them on to consumers [3][5] - Food prices saw a slight increase of 0.1% after two months of decline, while energy costs remained stable. Intermediate demand processing goods costs showed minimal increases, and raw goods prices have declined for three consecutive months [5][6] Group 3: Specific Price Changes - The final demand services index rose by 0.1% in May, rebounding from a 0.4% decline in April, primarily due to a 0.4% increase in trade service profit margins. Notable increases were seen in mechanical and vehicle wholesale profit margins, which surged by 2.9% [5][6] - In the final demand goods category, prices increased by 0.2% in May, with tobacco products rising by 0.9%. Conversely, airline fuel prices dropped by 8.2% [5][6] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the PPI report, traders fully priced in the scenario of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year [9] - The dollar index fell approximately 20 points to 97.70, while U.S. stock futures saw a slight uptick, with the Nasdaq 100 futures narrowing their decline to 0.5% [10][11]