地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/27 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价窄幅震荡，美油主力合约收涨 0.46%，报 65.22 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 0.41%，报 66.70 美元/桶。美国原油库存超预期下降支撑油价， 但中东局势缓和限制涨幅。光大期货指出，油价短期或维持区间震荡，需关注 欧佩克+产量政策变化。 2. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.04%报 3341.6 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.22%报 36.55 美元/盎司。美联储内部对降息时机存在 分歧，特朗普政府考虑提前宣布鲍威尔继任人选，引发对美联储独立性的担忧。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘全线上涨，LME 期锌涨 2.42%报 2770.00 美元/吨，LME 期 铜涨 1.89%报 9896.00 美元/吨，LME 期锡涨 1.86%报 33810.00 美元/吨。美联储 降息预期升温提振金属价格，铜市场表现尤为强劲。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1. 国家金融监督管理总局、中国人民银行联合发布《银行业保险 ...

在这个充满政治戏剧和市场猜测的季节里，唐纳德·特朗普总统再次成为了头条新闻的制造者，这次的 目标是美国经济的守护者——联邦储备系统。 据知情人士透露，特朗普正考虑打破传统，大幅提前宣布下一任美联储主席的人选，这距离现任主席杰 罗姆·鲍威尔的任期结束还有近一年的时间。 这场不同寻常的"选秀"不仅是对鲍威尔的公开施压，更是一场试图在正式交接前就影响货币政策的"后 座司机"策略，让华尔街的交易员们既感到困惑，又嗅到了潜在的交易机会。 特朗普对鲍威尔的不满早已不是秘密。他认为鲍威尔在降息问题上过于"谨慎"，未能充分利用货币政策 来"涡轮增压"经济，配合他那"一个、大、美丽的法案"（The One, Big, Beautiful Bill）所描绘的增长蓝 图。 白宫的官方说法是，美联储应该追求"以增长为导向"的政策，但翻译过来，这通常意味着：总统希望看 到更低的利率，而且是越快越好。 现在，特朗普的耐心似乎已经耗尽。他正在考虑在今年秋天，甚至可能在夏天就宣布他心目中的下一任 美联储掌门人。这比通常的过渡期提前了整整半年。 这个想法的核心是创造一个"候任主席"，让这位被选中人能够提前进入公众视野，通过公开发言来塑造 市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is conducting a transaction to acquire all shares of Hangzhou Bicheng Digital Technology Co., Ltd. and has engaged Shanghai Zhonghua Asset Appraisal Co., Ltd. as the evaluation agency to assess the market value of the target assets [1][2]. Group 1: Independence and Reasonableness of the Evaluation - The evaluation agency, Shanghai Zhonghua, has no related party relationships with the company or the transaction counterpart, ensuring its independence [1]. - The assumptions made in the evaluation report comply with national laws and regulations, and are reasonable according to market practices and asset appraisal standards [1][2]. Group 2: Evaluation Methodology and Purpose - The purpose of the evaluation is to determine the market value of the target assets as of the evaluation benchmark date, providing a reference for the transaction [2]. - The evaluation methods used are appropriate, and the conclusions drawn are reasonable, reflecting the actual situation of the evaluated assets [2]. Group 3: Fairness of the Transaction Price - The transaction price will be based on the evaluation report, adjusted for cash dividends during the transition period, ensuring fairness and reasonableness without harming the interests of the company and minority shareholders [2].

26日周四，尽管美国经济数据好坏参半，美股三大指数依然走高，标普500指数逼近历史新高，AI乐观 预期推动科技股继续领涨。同时，市场正在加码押注年内将有两次降息，首次降息时间可能在9月，7月 降息的概率仍维持在20%左右。降息预期增强，推动美股、美债走高，美元指数跌至两年新低。欧股回 吐涨幅，油价两日连涨，现货黄金跌幅扩大，加密货币冲高回落。 美股盘前公布数据显示，坏的方面，美国一季度GDP终值下修至萎缩0.5%；5月商品贸易逆差意外扩 大，出口创下疫情以来最大降幅；美国续请失业救济人数升至三年半最高。好的方面，美国上周首申失 业救济人数小幅下滑。数据略显疲软，但市场认为这反而更可能促使美联储降息。 另外，即使鲍威尔还没离职，报道称特朗普可能最早在今年9月宣布鲍威尔的接替人选，通过鸽派的"影 子美联储主席"来影响市场，增强美联储提前降息预期。美联储官员依旧有分歧，周四旧金山联储主席 戴利表示，目前越来越多的证据表明，关税不太可能引发持续性通胀上升。但里士满联储主席巴金则 说，关税很可能会推高物价，美联储应继续观望。 以下为核心资产走势： 美股三大指数走高，道指盘中涨约0.6%，标普500指数涨超0.4%，纳指 ...

金十数据6月26日讯，美国经济在第一季度收缩幅度大于此前预期之后仍保持弹性。5月耐用品订单增长 16.4%，每周申请失业救济人数温和增长23.6万人，第一季度GDP收缩0.5%，而不是之前预计的0.2%。 在美联储独立性受到威胁之际，美元保持了隔夜的下行轨迹。《华尔街日报》报道称，特朗普可能会比 平时更早任命鲍威尔主席的继任者，以削弱目前的鹰派立场。Bannockburn的Marc Chandler写道："如此 直接地影响美联储的企图，不会受到投资者的欢迎。" 分析师：美元因美联储独立性受威胁而走弱 ...

由于投资者美联储独立性受损的新信号感到不安，美元指数被迅速推至三年多来最低水平。 Monex Europe宏观研究主管尼克•里斯（Nick Rees）表示，市场面临的重大短期风险是，对美联储的批评仍在继续。 美元指数跌至2022年以来的最低水平 加拿大皇家银行蓝湾资产管理高级投资组合经理卡斯帕·亨泽（Kaspar Hense）表示："在机构公信力受损的环境下，我们做空美元。" 他补充称，若哈塞特或贝森特这类人物上任并"无视基本面风险而降息，市场仍会剧烈波动"。据报道，下一任美联储主席的主要候 选人包括前美联储理事沃什、国家经济委员会主任哈塞特、现任美联储理事沃勒和财政部长贝森特。 法国兴业银行首席外汇策略师基特·朱克斯（Kit Juckes）称："市场正在定价特朗普任命至少表面上更支持其政策的人选。"本周早些 时候，特朗普新任命的美联储高级银行监管者鲍曼表示"降息时机渐近"。随着降息预期升温，美元进一步走弱。交易员目前预计7月 降息概率近25%，高于上周的12.5%。 特朗普在贸易和安全问题上与长期盟友的对抗，以及对美联储的抨击，令德国重新审视其存放在纽约联储的央行黄金储备。路透社 上月报道，欧洲央行监管机构 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar has fallen to multi-year lows against the euro and Swiss franc due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and credibility, influenced by President Trump's potential plans to replace Chairman Powell before his term ends in 11 months [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July have increased significantly, with a 25% probability of a cut compared to 12% a week prior, and an anticipated reduction of 64 basis points by year-end [1] - The euro has risen by 0.6% to 1.1729 USD, marking its highest level since September 2021, while the British pound has increased by 0.65% to 1.3753 USD, also a peak since October 2021 [2] Group 2 - The Japanese yen has strengthened as traders await the Bank of Japan's next moves, with expectations of a moderate interest rate path supporting the yen's appreciation [4] - Morgan Stanley has warned that the impact of tariffs could slow US economic growth and increase inflation, with a 40% chance of recession, indicating a potential end to the era of US exceptionalism [4] - A recent survey indicates that central banks managing trillions in reserves are considering reallocating funds from the dollar to gold, euros, and renminbi, with one-third planning to increase gold investments in the next one to two years [5][8]

Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's criticism of current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his intention to announce a successor as early as September, which would break historical transition norms [1][4]. - Potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman include Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Scott Bessent, and David Malpass, each with varying degrees of alignment with Trump's economic policies [2]. - Trump's plan to announce a successor earlier than usual aims to create a "shadow Fed Chairman" to influence market expectations regarding future interest rates and apply pressure on Powell [4][5]. Group 2 - The proposed early announcement of a successor would establish a new model for Federal Reserve leadership transitions, allowing the nominee to influence market expectations while in a "Chairman-in-waiting" role [4]. - Trump's ongoing public pressure on Powell, including threats of dismissal, has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, challenging the traditional understanding that a Chairman would not be removed without misconduct [5][7]. - Powell's recent testimony highlighted concerns about rising inflation due to tariffs, indirectly responding to Trump's trade policies and interest rate demands, indicating a potential conflict between political pressures and economic data [8]. Group 3 - Analysts warn that Trump's actions may set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence and credibility if future leaders prioritize political preferences over economic indicators [9]. - The Trump administration's legal challenges to the independence of federal agencies further complicate the situation, as it seeks to empower the president to dismiss officials from independent institutions [9].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is expected to remain under pressure until the expiration of the "reciprocal tariffs" suspension period on July 9, due to concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and credibility [1] Group 1: Currency Performance - The US dollar has fallen to multi-year lows against the euro and Swiss franc [1] - Market concerns about the Federal Reserve's future independence are undermining confidence in US monetary policy [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The concerns regarding the Federal Reserve could pose risks to the outlook for US interest rates [1] - Statements from the Trump administration may further exacerbate pressure on the dollar leading up to the tariff suspension deadline [1]

美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔昨晚重申了"不急于降息"的言论，但同日美国总统特朗普的一则消息引 起了广泛关注。特朗普表示，他认识的人大概只有三四个，幸运的是，鲍威尔很快就会下台，并对鲍威 尔的智力和工作表现进行了批评。这一系列言论似乎暗示着特朗普即将宣布美联储主席的继任者名单。 值得一提的是，全球关注的黄金市场近期陷入沉寂，正在酝酿下一轮的大涨或大跌。鉴于特朗普的性格 特点，当他频繁提起某件事时，可能会突然做出决定。因此，即使下一秒宣布新的美联储主席人选，也 不要感到意外，市场随时可能发生剧烈变化。 来源：热点快报 根据目前的消息，特朗普的美联储主席继任者名单上可能有四个人选。首先是前美联储理事凯文·沃 什，他是最鹰派也是最激进的候选人，据称是特朗普本人最看好的人选。其次是现任美联储理事沃勒， 他是一个技术派人物，延续性较强，并且是第一个宣布支持7月降息的联储官员。第三位是白宫国家经 济委员会主任哈塞特，他具有强烈的政治色彩，并在昨晚突然表示美联储目前有足够的降息空间。最后 是财政部长贝森特，他是一个市场友好型的人物，得到了特朗普盟友的力推。 特朗普势必会选择一位"喜欢降息的人"作为下一任美联储主席，这引发了对 ...