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如何反驳“都不想生孩子,人类就灭绝了”
Hu Xiu· 2025-07-01 06:08
Group 1 - The article discusses the misconceptions surrounding childbirth and population decline, emphasizing that historical population drops were primarily due to wars and plagues rather than birth rates [2][4][7] - It argues that childbirth is a self-regulating behavior influenced by basic human value judgments, where the decision to have children is based on perceived benefits and hardships [3][6] - The text highlights that in modern societies with high living standards, the birth rate tends to stabilize as individuals have more freedom to choose whether or not to have children [5][6] Group 2 - The article critiques the notion that a lack of childbirth will lead to human extinction, labeling it as a simplistic and flawed argument that ignores individual differences and choices [7][8] - It points out that societal pressures and expectations can lead to misguided beliefs about reproduction, suggesting that people should have the freedom to make personal choices regarding family planning [6][8] - The discussion includes the impact of economic conditions on the decision to have children, noting that many young people refrain from childbirth due to financial constraints and a sense of responsibility [7]
壹快评丨少拧螺丝多松手,升腾经济烟火气
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 05:51
Core Viewpoint - The vitality of the economy and society is rooted in a relaxed regulatory environment that allows for freedom and creativity, encapsulated in the principle of "law permits what is not prohibited" [1][6]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - Beijing's recent announcement allows large public events and temporary commercial activities without prior approval from fire safety departments, aiming to revive urban vibrancy and economic activity [2][4]. - The shift from strict regulations to a more permissive approach is expected to restore the lively atmosphere of cities, which has been diminished by excessive regulation in the past [2][3]. Group 2: Economic and Social Vitality - Economic vitality is not achieved through strict control but through creating a legal and free order that respects individual rights to pursue happiness [3][5]. - The recent changes in Beijing serve as a model for other regions, encouraging a return of public life and economic activity that has been stifled by overregulation [3][4]. Group 3: Governance and Public Services - Effective governance should replace excessive control with public services that ensure safety and order without stifling economic activity [4][5]. - There is a need for a balanced approach that allows for economic freedom while maintaining necessary safety regulations, ensuring that public safety is integrated into business operations [5][6]. Group 4: Consumer Awareness - Increasing consumer awareness of rights and risks is essential, with a focus on educating the public about safety measures and potential hazards in commercial activities [6]. - The promotion of risk awareness among consumers will help safeguard the vibrant street life and economic activities that are being encouraged by the new regulations [6].
中国燃气(00384.HK):毛差稳健提升 自由现金流再创新高
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-01 02:31
接驳业务继续承压,降幅同比有所收窄。2024/25 财年公司新增居民用户140.05 万户,同比下滑15.5% (去年同比下滑28%)。在接驳用户增量中,存量用户占比达到34.5%,同比增长2.7 个百分点。 2024/25 财年接驳及工程业务合计税前利润仅占公司全部业务税前利润的16.4%,接驳业务对利润贡献 度持续下降。根据公司业绩指引,2025/26 财年新增接驳用户数量小幅下降至100-120 万户,接驳用户 数有望降幅进一步收窄,接驳业务未来对公司整体业绩影响可控。 增值业务与综合能源稳健成长,打造公司成长新动能。2024/25 财年,公司增值业务收入达37.32 亿港 元,同比增长2.1%,经营利润17.5 亿港元,同比增长10.6%。公司以"壹品慧"平台业务作为增值服务业 务主要服务载体,通过增加服务范围及网格精细化管理,盈利能力持续提升。综合能源业务方面,公司 全年供能规模达77.6 亿KWh,切入工商业用户侧储能、绿电、综合能效等业务领域,为客户打绿色低 碳综合能源服务生态,提供多元能源解决方案。 机构:申万宏源研究 研究员:王璐/朱赫 中国燃气发布2024/25 财年业绩。2024/25 ...
中国燃气(0384.HK):一次性项目影响2025财年盈利 2026财年现金流确定性仍待提高
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-01 02:31
机构:交银国际 研究员:郑民康/文昊 较多一次性项目影响2025 财年盈利,自由现金流有较大改善。中燃2025财年报表盈利同比增2.1%,核 心盈利同比降约14%,低于我们预期,主因:1)下半财年零售气量同比下滑1% ,因公司受暖冬影响约 5 个月,导致居民售气同比下跌4%;2)由于船舶出售,期內减少2.6 亿港元的租赁收入;3)2024 财年 有1.5 亿港元的一次性的退税没有在2025 财年再出现。 虽然如此,公司售气毛差同比增约4 分至每方0.54 元人民币,新增居民接驳同比仅下跌15%至150 万 戶,仍高于我们预期的125 万戶,增值业务经营利润同比增长10.6%,合乎预期。同时公司自由现金流 达到新高46.6 亿港元,末期分红亦维持在0.35 港元,合乎预期。 公司目前6.8%的股息率为我们覆盖的燃气分销商中最高,但我们认为目前公司约10 倍2026 财年市盈率 已是合理水平。目前我们认为提高评级仍需要等待盈利/现金流稳定度再提高,从而在股息率和估值上 有更好的平衡点。维持中性评级。 2026/27 财年自由现金流仍有望覆盖目前年度分红。公司2026 财年指引偏向保守:1)零售气增长2%, 售气毛 ...
定安:筑牢红色堡垒 办好百姓实事
Hai Nan Ri Bao· 2025-07-01 01:27
Group 1: Core Activities and Initiatives - The celebration of the 104th anniversary of the Communist Party of China is marked by various activities such as seminars and themed party days, aimed at promoting high-quality development through high-quality party building [2] - The county has implemented three major measures: cultivating advanced models, innovating learning methods, and deepening community service to enhance the capabilities of party members and officials [2][5] - The county aims to create a "double first-class" cadre team by promoting exemplary models and encouraging a competitive atmosphere among party members [5] Group 2: Economic Development and Community Engagement - In Gao Tang Village, the collective income increased by 110,000 yuan last year, with an expected increase of 230,000 yuan this year, driven by the cultivation of popular flower varieties [3][4] - A new environmentally friendly particle production project is set to begin in the village, with an investment of over 7 million yuan, expected to produce 200 to 300 cubic meters of particles daily [4] - The county is focusing on establishing rural revitalization demonstration points by the end of the year, promoting successful models for community development [5] Group 3: Educational and Cultural Initiatives - The county has innovated its patriotic education approach by incorporating various formats such as poetry recitation and storytelling to engage children more effectively [6][7] - A "Five Olds" lecture group has been formed, leveraging retired professionals to enhance the quality of educational outreach [7] - The county promotes a culture of learning and policy understanding among officials through various initiatives, including thematic speeches and community engagement activities [8] Group 4: Infrastructure and Public Services - The renovation of the Pai Po Bridge is underway to address safety concerns, with 40% of the work completed and expected to finish by September [9] - The county has repaired multiple roads and installed over 300 streetlights to improve community safety and accessibility [9][10] - A total of 563 community issues have been collected and 559 resolved, demonstrating the county's commitment to addressing public concerns [10]
跟着巴菲特投资!国内首只“300现金流ETF联接基金”今日重磅首发!
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-07-01 00:55
2025年7月1日,A股迎来重磅投资新工具——国内首只*跟踪沪深300自由现金流指数场外基金——华宝 沪深300自由现金流ETF联接基金(A类024367;C类024368)盛大发售。该基金以"真金白银"的自由现 金流为选股核心,深度聚焦沪深300指数中自由现金流最强的50家"现金奶牛",剔除金融、地产行业, 前五大行业(石油石化、煤炭、通信等)占比达59%,为投资者在波动市场中提供了兼具防御性与收益 潜力的稀缺"现金牛"配置工具。 *注:300现金流ETF及其联接基金是国内首只跟踪沪深300自由现金流指数的场内及场外基金。 一、价值投资大师的"黄金指标"落地A股 "自由现金流是企业真正的生命力。"这一被巴菲特、芒格等投资大师奉为圭臬的核心理念,正成为A股 市场的投资新共识。不同于传统红利策略仅关注股息率,自由现金流指标聚焦企业支付必要开支后可自 由支配的"真金白银",既能衡量盈利质量,又能评估股东回报潜力。数据显示,2017年以来,沪深300 自由现金流全收益指数年化收益率达14.17%,累计涨幅194.87%,大幅跑赢沪深300指数及传统红利策 略指数,印证了该策略在A股市场的有效性。 数据来源于Wind ...
基金圈“现金奶牛”新物种来了!这次是“场外版”
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-07-01 00:51
Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Huashang CSI 300 Free Cash Flow ETF Connect Fund" marks a significant development in the domestic fund issuance market, focusing on companies with high free cash flow, which is seen as a key indicator of corporate value and shareholder returns [1][2][3]. Group 1: Fund Launch and Strategy - The "Huashang CSI 300 Free Cash Flow ETF Connect Fund" (Class A: 024367; Class C: 024368) is officially launched, following the earlier release of the 300 Cash Flow ETF (562080) [1][3]. - These funds are among the first in China to track the CSI 300 Free Cash Flow Index, which selects 50 companies from the CSI 300 Index with high free cash flow rates [3]. - The strategy focuses on large-cap blue-chip companies, referred to as "cash cows," which are characterized by high profitability, potential shareholder returns, and low valuations [1][2]. Group 2: Importance of Free Cash Flow - Free cash flow is emphasized as a critical measure of a company's true profitability and its ability to distribute cash to shareholders, as highlighted by investment legends like Warren Buffett and Philip Fisher [2]. - High free cash flow typically indicates better earnings quality and lower company valuations, allowing for dividends or stock buybacks, which enhance shareholder returns [2][7]. - The current economic environment, characterized by uncertainty and a shift towards high-quality development, positions "cash cow" companies favorably due to their strong operational quality and dividend yields [7]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - Since 2017, the cumulative return of the 300 Cash Flow Total Return Index has reached 194.87%, with an annualized return of 14.17%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 and related indices [4]. - The 300 Cash Flow Total Return Index has demonstrated a higher Sharpe ratio compared to the CSI 300 Dividend Strategy Index, indicating a better risk-return profile [6]. - The index's volatility and maximum drawdown have been lower than those of similar strategy indices, showcasing its defensive attributes [6]. Group 4: Investment Implications - The 300 Cash Flow Index is designed to exclude financial and real estate sectors, focusing on pure high cash flow core assets, making it suitable for investors looking to avoid these sectors [7]. - The launch of the "Huashang CSI 300 Free Cash Flow ETF Connect Fund" provides a new investment tool for both onshore and offshore investors to access A-share large-cap blue-chip "cash cows" [7].
价平质优胜过万千包装 让舌尖体验返璞归真
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-06-30 18:18
Core Insights - The concept of "snack freedom" reflects consumers' desire to eliminate excessive pricing and marketing tactics, returning snacks to their essential value as everyday items rather than luxury goods [1][2] - The emotional value associated with snacks is increasingly recognized, as consumers seek immediate gratification and comfort in a fast-paced, anxiety-inducing society [1][2] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The snack wholesale model allows for reasonable profit margins at each stage, replacing inefficient models with more effective ones to provide cost-effective products to consumers [2] - Scale effects in wholesale platforms help to dilute fixed costs, enabling better brand marketing and emotional value offerings [2] - Despite challenges such as poor profitability, homogenization, and quality control issues, the snack wholesale model significantly reshapes the retail value chain and meets the demands of the lower-tier market [2] Group 2: Consumer Experience - The snack wholesale model empowers consumers by returning the choice of quality and price to them, contrasting with traditional channels that struggle to balance these factors [2] - As product prices align more closely with their true value, the consumer experience is simplified, emphasizing the joy of enjoying snacks without the burden of premium pricing [2]
高志凯:特朗普总说中国“强奸美国”,疯了,有什么乐趣?
凤凰网财经· 2025-06-30 14:22
高志凯表示,美国从未想过放弃世界第一的位置,其核心纠结在于绝不允许中国成为世界第一。当前美 国深陷"两个噩梦":一是无端担心中国超越自己,二是臆想中国超越后会称霸。 但对于"中国称霸论",高志凯明确表示中国无论强弱都不会称霸。"从中国历史来看,自秦朝以 后,'霸'并非正面词汇,中国强盛时期追求的是成为"仁义之君",会对世界上两百多个国家一视同仁, 无论大小。尤其对于美国这样武装到牙齿的大国,中国更无必要与之争霸"。 高志凯还提到,特朗普在第一任期内,曾多次公开宣称'中国强奸美国'。对此,我在国际场合明确回 应:"所谓'强奸美国',究竟有何意义?美国作为武装到牙齿的超级大国,谁会荒唐到试图'强奸'它?这 样做又能带来什么好处?"面对这样的质问,美国人往往无言以对,因为他们根本无法解释这种说法的 合理性。 凤凰网财经讯6月28-29日,"2025中国企业出海高峰论坛"在深圳举行,本次论坛由凤凰网主办,雪花超 高端系列品牌-醴首席赞助合作,中国企业出海全球化理事会联合主办,以"为开放的世界"为主题,旨 在全球产业链深度重构之际,为中国企业搭建思想碰撞、资源对接、规则对话的高端平台,系统性破解 出海难题,共探生态共赢 ...
李强:维护自由贸易和多边主义;沪深交易所:拟将ST股票扩大涨跌幅至10%|每周金融评论(2025.6.23-2025.6.29)
清华金融评论· 2025-06-30 11:12
Financial Weekly 母周令题课次 目录 CONTENTS 热点聚焦 FOCUS ◎ 中国人民银行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费 的指导意见》 MEETINGS ◎ 李强:维护自由贸易和多边主义、促进世界经济稳定发展 車大政策 POLICES ◎ 国家发改委:第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于7月下达 ◎ 国家金融监管总局、央行联合发布《银行业保险业普惠金融 高质量发展实施方案》 EVENTS ◎ 沪深交易所:拟将主板风险警示股票价格的涨跌幅限制比例 调整为10%。 投资、消费、出口是拉动经济增长的"三驾马车",促进消费是我国推动经济增长的重要手段。关于促消费,我国近年来聚焦产品 领域,有序推进消费品以旧换新。当前又将促消费举措推广到服务领域,更是要设立服务消费与养老再贷款,额度达5000亿元, 同时在产品消费、服务消费双管齐下,也有利于提高人民生活水平,实现经济增长目标。(观察员/王茅) 重大 会议 李强:维护自由贸易和多边主义,促进世界经济稳定发展 01 6月25日,国务院总理李强在天津出席2025年夏季达沃斯论坛开幕式并致辞。李强表示,我们应当顺应正道和大势,拿出智慧和 担当,采取积 ...