当地时间5月4日，第28届东盟与中日韩（10+3）财长和央行行长会议在意大利米兰举行，会议正式同 意扩大"清迈倡议"多边化融资模式适用范围，使之不仅适用于金融危机，也适用于传染病大流行和自然 灾害发生之际。 自2008年"清迈倡议"提出后，就一直作为区域金融安全网的重要组成部分，在维护区域金融稳定方面发 挥了积极作用。此次扩大适用范围，意味着在面临非传统安全风险时，区域内的国家将能够更灵活、更 有效地利用这一机制来应对挑战，体现了东盟与中日韩国家间加强合作、共同应对全球性挑战的决心。 特朗普此番全球关税大战，引发了美元为基础的全球金融市场的连锁反应。中国在坚决反击美国关税胁 迫的同时，学者们也开始深度探讨，在全球贸易体系、金融体系被动摇的当下，东亚地区有可能参照欧 洲一体化和欧元形成的道路吗？特别是人民币国际化呼声日渐高涨，中国将如何发挥好全球经济和金融 的稳定器作用？ 就这些问题，观察者网连线曾经参与人民币国际化路线设计的原中国银行首席经济学家、前中国宏观经 济学会副会长曹远征。 【对话/观察者网 高艳平】 美元作为国际货币的根基被动摇 观察者网：关于贸易战的本质，年初您在接受我们的"问诊2025中国经济" ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 5 月 7 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 中美贸易紧张形势缓和前景以及美乌签署矿产协议，一度将伦敦黄金压低至 3200 美元/盎司附近；但特朗普转身又对电影行业发出新的关税威胁，且重启对 乌克兰军售，因此避险需求在短期走弱后重新强化，印度与巴基斯坦的潜在冲突 也吸引市场的注意，5 月 6 日伦敦黄金持续反弹至 3400 美元/盎司附近，人民币 兑美元汇率升值使得国内金银相对偏弱。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局进入 乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中线上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent ASEAN+3 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting has established a new rapid financing tool under the Chiang Mai Initiative, allowing for contributions in currencies like the Renminbi, marking a significant step towards the internationalization of the Renminbi and diversification of the international monetary system [1][2]. Group 1: Rapid Financing Tool - The introduction of a rapid financing tool using freely usable currencies like the Renminbi expands the resources available under the Chiang Mai Initiative, highlighting regional characteristics and indicating positive progress towards a diversified international monetary system [1]. - This tool aims to enhance the effectiveness of the Chiang Mai Initiative, providing crucial support for regional stability and development [1]. Group 2: Renminbi's Role - Analysts believe that this move will have profound implications for the internationalization of the Renminbi, as its inclusion in the Special Drawing Rights basket was significantly influenced by its status as a freely usable currency [1][2]. - The Renminbi's role as a regional safe-haven currency has become more pronounced, aiding countries in managing global economic instability and promoting cross-border usage in Southeast Asia [2]. Group 3: Chiang Mai Initiative Improvements - Over the past 20 years, the Chiang Mai Initiative has improved its rescue capabilities, governance structure, and institutional framework, becoming an essential part of the global financial safety net [2]. - The initiative has not yet been activated by member countries, but there is a growing call to enhance its usability [2]. - Recent discussions indicate significant progress in improving the functionality and usability of the Chiang Mai Initiative, particularly in addressing short-term capital flow risks through a rapid financing mechanism [2][3]. Group 4: Capital Contribution Transition - The initiative is transitioning from a multilateral swap agreement to a true regional financial safety net by establishing a technical working group to facilitate capital contributions [3]. - Current rules require that 60% of the Chiang Mai Initiative funds be linked to IMF loan conditions, with the remaining 40% subject to member countries' discretion; discussions are underway to potentially lower this linkage ratio, enhancing the initiative's independence and flexibility [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Asian currencies are experiencing a strong appreciation against the US dollar, driven by factors such as improved global market risk appetite, significant holdings of dollar assets by Asian exporters and insurers, and a slowdown in the US economy [1][2][3] - The offshore RMB has seen a substantial increase, with a rise of over 600 basis points on May 2 and more than 100 basis points on May 5, reaching a five-month high [2] - The New Taiwan Dollar has appreciated nearly 7% against the US dollar in recent trading days, marking its highest level since February 2023 [2] Group 2 - Global investors are adjusting their portfolios, leading to downward pressure on the US dollar, with non-US investors holding approximately $22 trillion in US assets, which constitutes about one-third of their total investment portfolio [3] - The performance of US tech stocks remains robust, but many companies express concerns about future prospects, leading investors to sell off US stocks at high prices [3] - The significant drop in oil prices has reduced import costs for Asian countries, potentially expanding trade surpluses and further supporting the appreciation of Asian currencies [3][5] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the long-term downtrend of the US dollar is unlikely to reverse fundamentally, with weakened confidence in US assets and limited potential for dollar rebounds [4][5] - The ongoing fiscal and current account deficits in the US are seen as constraints on the dollar's strength, while foreign investors are reducing their holdings of US assets [5] - The global rebalancing of asset allocation may just be beginning, as non-US governments are likely to stimulate their economies through fiscal policies, promoting capital repatriation [5]

Group 1: Retail and Consumer Market - During the "May Day" holiday, key retail and catering enterprises in China saw sales increase by 6.3% year-on-year, with home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment experiencing double-digit growth [1] - The sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment grew by 15.5%, 13.7%, and 10.5% respectively during the holiday period [1] - E-commerce platforms reported a more than 20% year-on-year increase in sales of smart home products [1] Group 2: Transportation and Mobility - From May 1 to May 5, the total cross-regional movement of people in China reached 1.467 billion, averaging 293 million per day, a year-on-year increase of 8.0% [1] - Railway passenger volume during this period was 101.69 million, with a daily average of 20.34 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [1] - Road transportation, including both non-commercial and commercial passenger traffic, accounted for 1.345 billion movements, averaging 269 million per day, up by 7.6% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Financial and Economic Developments - The People's Bank of China announced the establishment of a rapid financing tool funded by freely usable currencies like the RMB, marking a significant step in the diversification of the international monetary system [1] - The 137th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) concluded with a record number of overseas buyers, totaling 288,900 from 219 countries and regions, a 17.3% increase from the previous year [1] - The fair reported an on-site intended export transaction volume of $25.44 billion, up 3% year-on-year [1] Group 4: Automotive Industry - BYD announced that its sales of new energy vehicles reached 380,100 units in April 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.33% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to April 2025, BYD sold 1.3809 million new energy vehicles, marking a 46.98% increase year-on-year [1] Group 5: Real Estate Market - In Shanghai, 11 new residential projects were approved before the "May Day" holiday, with a total of 1,577 units entering the market, primarily high-end improvement products [1] - Despite many residents traveling during the holiday, the new housing market in Shanghai remained active, with several projects triggering sales limits and point systems due to high demand [1] Group 6: Corporate Developments - Xiaomi's subsidiary, Xiaomi Home, underwent a business change, with Lei Jun transitioning from executive director to director, and the business scope expanded to include smart home consumer device sales [1]

蓝佛安表示，10+3区域经济展现较强韧性、拥有较大增长空间，但也面临复杂严峻的内外部挑战。各 方应坚定落实10+3领导人会议共识，坚持多边主义和自由贸易，加强宏观政策沟通协调，深化域内贸 易投资合作，维护产供链稳定畅通，为区域经济金融稳定和一体化进程做出更大贡献。中方愿与10+3 各方一道，坚持开放包容，团结协作，不断深化区域财金合作，以本区域的稳定性和确定性应对世界的 不稳定和不确定。 第28届东盟与中日韩(10+3)财长和央行行长会议5月4日在意大利米兰举行。会议主要讨论了全球和区域 宏观经济形势、10+3区域财金合作等议题，并发表了联合声明。各方在深化区域内政策协调和加强区 域金融安全网等领域达成一系列共识。财政部部长蓝佛安出席会议并表示，当前世界经济格局深刻调 整，不稳定不确定性因素明显增多。中方愿与10+3各方一道，不断深化区域财金合作。中国人民银行 行长潘功胜出席会议并指出，进一步完善清迈倡议机制、强化本区域金融安全网至关重要。 会议各方就美关税政策对全球和区域宏观经济形势造成的影响、完善清迈倡议多边化(CMIM)机制和 10+3宏观经济研究办公室(AMRO)等议题深入交换了意见。蓝佛安代表中方宣 ...

从黄金类资产的交易结构上，近期观察到黄金 ETF 规模大幅增长，仅国内的黄金 ETF 在 4 月份规模上 涨超过 500 亿，对应 50-60 吨黄金现货需求。 A 股的黄金股票也纷纷创出年内新高，成交量显著放 大。以上现象说明投资者对黄金的投资热情迅速提升，出现短期交易拥挤的现象。 报告导读： 从交易结构的视角分析黄金的价格节奏。 从微观供需层面看，各国央行购金成为驱动金价上涨的重要动力， 2024 年各经济体央行购金约 1044 吨。随着金价的快速爬升，投资需求逐渐接力成为短期的主导力量， 2024 年投资需求量为 1179 吨，然 而金价高企同时也抑制了金饰类消费需求， 2024 年全球金饰消费量约 1877 吨环比 2023 年下降 11% ，工业领域的黄金需求量占比较低且稳定 2024 年仅为 326 吨。 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号 ...

截至北京时间5月5日18:18，纽约黄金期货报3322.4美元/盎司，日内涨幅超2.4%。现货黄金报3313.62美 元/盎司，日内涨幅超2.2%。 据央视新闻报道，全球贸易紧张局势缓和、投资者避险情绪降温，加之美元指数小幅反弹，上周四国际 金价跌至两周来低点，上周累计下跌1.67%，已连续第二周下跌。 金价又反弹了，纽约黄金期货、现货黄金纷纷突破3300美元/盎司。 自4月22日突破3500美元/盎司、创历史新高后，近期国际金价经历一轮过山车走势。 兴业研究则表示，由于全球产业链重构以及货币体系重构，金价大周期依旧看好。但没有品种的价格是 只涨不跌，阶段性顶底往往是交易出来而非预测出来的。 民生证券认为，技术层面黄金过去积累对应的上涨空间已基本兑现，未来价格继续上行需要进一步积累 或者有新增增量资金入场，短期或较为疲软。综合来说，黄金短期或阶段性休整，但是长期上涨逻辑不 变。 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 来源：综合自央视新闻、券商研报、Wind 世界黄金协会发布的报告显示，一季度全球金价20次突破历史新高，受此影响，全球金饰消费总量同比 下降21%，为2020年以 ...

本文字数：702，阅读时长大约1分钟 据央视新闻报道，5月4日至5日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜率团赴意大利米兰出席东盟与中日韩 （10+3）财长和央行行长会，并作为10+3财金合作机制联合主席主持相关讨论，与会议各方就美关 税政策对全球和区域宏观经济形势造成的影响、完善清迈倡议多边化（CMIM）机制和10+3宏观经 济研究办公室（AMRO）等议题深入交换了意见，并推动各方在深化区域内政策协调和加强区域金 融安全网等领域达成一系列共识。 会议一致通过了在清迈倡议多边化下新设以人民币等可自由使用 货币出资的快速融资工具相关安排，并明确了清迈倡议机制化下一步讨论方向。 2025.05. 05 中日韩三方同期举行了财长和央行行长会，就经济形势和区域内财金合作交流意见。潘功胜 呼吁区 域国家团结一致应对美关税冲击，介绍了中方相关宏观经济政策。 潘功胜还在会间与日本财长加藤 正信、韩国央行行长李昌镛、马来西亚央行行长拉希德进行双边会谈，就全球不确定性对各国影响交 换了意见。 微信编辑 | 七三 多地宣布发钱奖励结婚！ 潘功胜指出，当前单边主义正冲击以规则为基础的多边经贸体系和国际治理体系，全球经济不确定性 上升，10+3区 ...

中国人民银行行长潘功胜出席并主持东盟与中日韩财长和央行行长会 责编：叶舒筠 校对： 吕久彪 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes 2025年5月4日至5日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜率团赴意大利米兰出席东盟与中日韩（10+3）财长和央行行长 会，并作为10+3财金合作机制联合主席主持相关讨论，与会议各方就美关税政策对全球和区域宏观经济形势 造成的影响、完善清迈倡议多边化（CMIM）机制和10+3宏观经济研究办公室（AMRO）等议题深入交换了意 见，并推动各方在深化区域内政策协调和加强区域金融安全网等领域达成一系列共识。会议一致通过了在清迈 倡议多边化下新设以人民币等可自由使用货币出资的快速融资工具相关安排，并明确了清迈倡议机制化下一步 讨论方向。 潘功胜指出，当前单边主义正冲击以规则为基础的多边经贸体系和国际治理体系，全球经济不确定性上升， 10+3区域面临的经济和金融风险亦显著上升。在此背景下，进一步完善清迈倡议机制、强化本区域金融安全 网至关重要。引 ...