全美房地产经纪人协会（NAR）首席经济学家劳伦斯·云：将5月的上涨归因于美国劳动力市场的韧性， 工资涨幅超过了房价上涨。 然而，"抵押贷款利率波动是购房决策的主要驱动因素，对住房负担能力的影响大于工资增长"。 ...

格林大华期货中国宏观经济半年报 从业资格：F0276812 2025年6月26日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 数据来源：wind，格林大华 1-5月份，设备工器具购置投资同比增长17.3% "两新"工作加力扩围提质带动效果持续显现，设备购置投资快速增长。1-5月份，设备工器具购置投资同比增 长17.3%，增速比全部投资高13.6个百分点；对全部投资增长的贡献率为63.6%，拉动全部投资增长2.3个百分点。 （2024年，设备工器具购置投资增长15.7%，2023年是6.6%）。6月26日国家发改委政策研究室副主任李超在发布 会上表示，抓紧推出加力实施设备更新贷款贴息政策，进一步降低经营主体设备更新融资成本。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 1-5月份，全国新建商品房销售面积同比下降2.9%，1-4月同比下降2.8% 1-5月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长3.7%，市场预期4.0%，1-4月份为4.0% 1-5月份，全国固定资产投资同比增长3.7%，市场预 ...

Economic Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes confidence and capability in promoting sustained and healthy domestic economic development despite complex external challenges [2] - The NDRC has implemented proactive macro policies to stabilize employment and promote high-quality development, resulting in overall stable economic operation [2] Employment Support Initiatives - The NDRC has launched the "Action Plan" to enhance employment and income for key groups through the "work-for-relief" policy, with a focus on increasing support for vulnerable populations [2][3] - A total of 16 billion yuan has been allocated for "work-for-relief" projects, expected to create job opportunities for 380,000 individuals [3] Policy Implementation and Funding - The NDRC plans to issue the third batch of funds for the "old-for-new" consumption policy in July, with a total support of 300 billion yuan for consumer goods [4][5] - The first two batches of funding for equipment updates have already allocated approximately 173 billion yuan, supporting around 7,500 projects across 16 sectors [4] Market Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has led to significant sales growth in related products, with sales exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan this year [5] - The NDRC aims to enhance the effectiveness of the "two new" policies by improving project management and ensuring timely funding distribution [5]

Core Viewpoint - The "Two New" policy is effectively boosting investment, consumption, and transformation in China, with significant sales growth in home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment, leading to over 1.4 trillion yuan in sales from trade-in programs this year [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation and Financial Support - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to issue the third batch of funding for consumer goods trade-in programs in July, ensuring a structured and balanced approach to fund allocation throughout the year [3][6] - A total of 300 billion yuan in long-term special government bonds will be allocated to support consumer goods trade-in initiatives, with 162 billion yuan already distributed in the first two batches [3][6] - The NDRC aims to enhance project management and financial oversight for equipment upgrades, with 200 billion yuan allocated for equipment updates this year [6] Group 2: Consumer Impact and Sales Data - As of May 31, 2025, the trade-in program has generated 1.1 trillion yuan in sales across five major categories, with approximately 175 million subsidies issued directly to consumers [5] - The program has seen significant participation, with 4.12 million applications for vehicle trade-ins and millions of purchases in home appliances and digital products [5] Group 3: Regional and Sectoral Developments - The Guangdong provincial government has confirmed that it will not prematurely end the trade-in policy, addressing concerns about temporary suspensions in certain cities due to system upgrades [5] - Recent policies from various departments emphasize financial support for key consumption areas, including trade-in programs for old vehicles and appliances, aiming to enhance consumer spending [7][8] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The 300 billion yuan in trade-in subsidies is projected to represent approximately 0.5% of the total disposable income and 0.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2024, potentially boosting retail sales growth by about 1 percentage point this year [8]

6月26日，国家发展改革委召开6月份新闻发布会。国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超 表示，有信心、有能力推动经济持续健康发展。她还表示， 将抓紧推出加力实施设备更新贷款贴息政 策，将在7月下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金 。 谈及"苏超"热度攀升，李超表示，这反映出群众对多元化和群众性的体育赛事、运动健身热情高、需求 大，也展现出我国的体育赛事和文化旅游等相关产业发展蕴含着巨大的潜力。 消费品以旧换新方面，按照既定工作安排，将在7月下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金；同时将协调 有关方面，坚持更加注重"时序性"和"均衡性"的原则，分领域制定落实到每月、每周的"国补"资金使用 计划，保障消费品以旧换新政策全年有序实施。与此同时，及时跟踪评估各领域工作进展，不断完善实 施机制，更好提升"两新"政策效能。 有信心、有能力推动经济持续健康发展 李超表示，当前，外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性有所增加，全球经贸稳定增长面临挑战，这些 都会影响我国经济平稳运行。但更要看到，近期世界银行、经合组织（OECD）分别将全球经济增长预 测下调0.4个百分点和0.2个百分点，而对中国经济增长预测维持总体稳定，德意志银行 ...

当地时间周三(6月25日)，美国联邦住房金融署(FHFA)命令住房贷款机构，考虑将加密货币作为住宅 抵押贷款风险评估的资产。该机构负责监管房利美和房地美这两家美国住房抵押贷款巨头。分析人 士表示，此举可能为借款人使用加密货币资产申请住房贷款敞开大门。 FHFA署长William Pulte当天在社交媒体上发文写道，"经过深入研究，并遵循特朗普总统将 美国打造成'加密货币之都'的愿景，今天我下令房利美和房地美着手准备，将加密货币列为抵 押贷款申请的认定资产。" 这一指令标志着美国政府支持企业在评估抵押贷款资质的资产审核标准上，可能迎来重大转 变，同时也与特朗普政府推动加密货币在美国普及的既定目标一脉相承。 FHFA具有监管房利美和房地美的权责，这两家机构自2008年次贷危机期间遭受重大损失后， 一直处于美国政府的控制之下，它们担保了全美超过一半的抵押贷款。 面对行业逆风，Pulte正寻求为购房者开拓更可行的借贷渠道，而加密货币也由此成为了其潜 在的突破口。 在周三签署的一份指令中，Pulte表示，考虑借款人的其他资产——如加密货币，或将使房利 美和房地美能够更为全面地评估借款人的财务状况，并可以"为信誉良好的借 ...

Core Viewpoint - The annualized yield of government bond reverse repos has been rising steadily as the end of the first half of 2025 approaches, with significant increases observed in both Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The annualized yield for the 1-day government bond reverse repo in the Shanghai market rose sharply by 13.17% on June 25, reaching 2% during intraday trading on June 26, with an intraday increase exceeding 10% [3]. - Similarly, the Shenzhen market's 1-day government bond reverse repo yield also saw a significant increase of 13.02% on June 25, with yields reaching 2% and intraday gains surpassing 12% [3]. - Other maturities of government bond reverse repos in both markets have also experienced varying degrees of yield increases recently [4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Environment - The overall interest rate level in the market has been on a downward trend in recent years, with the loan market quoted interest rates (LPR) remaining unchanged at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year and above as of June 20 [5][6]. - Deposit rates have also been declining, with major banks recently lowering their RMB deposit rates, including a 5 basis point reduction in the current deposit rate to 0.05% and a 15 basis point reduction for various fixed-term deposits [6][7]. Group 3: Reverse Repo Operation Guidelines - Investors can choose between Shanghai and Shenzhen markets for government bond reverse repos, with a minimum investment threshold of 1,000 yuan [8]. - There are various maturities available for reverse repos, including 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 4-day, 7-day, 14-day, 28-day, 91-day, and 182-day, allowing investors to select based on their cash flow needs and yield preferences [9]. - The process for placing orders involves selecting a sell option, and many brokerage platforms now offer user-friendly interfaces for executing reverse repo transactions [10][11].

又到年中节点。 | | | | 上交所回购 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅▼ 成交量 | | 持仓 年初至今 | 时间 | | GC002 | 1.950 | 0.175 | 9.86% 227.74亿 | | 10.48% | 11:29 | | GC004 | 1.960 | 0.115 | 6.23% 59.01亿 | l | 21.36% | 11:29 | | GC001 | 1.895 | 0.090 | 4.99% 5355.421 | | 5.87% | 11:29 | | GC003 | 1.950 | 0.065 | 3.45% 57.41亿 | . | 16.07% | 11:29 | | GC007 | 2.000 | 0.030 | 1.52% 893.58亿 | - | 13.96% | 11:29 | | GC014 | 1.800 | 0.010 | 0.56% 90.92亿 | | 3.75% | 11:29 | | | | | 深交所回购 | | | | | 名 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the importance of the "Two New" policies in stabilizing investment, expanding consumption, promoting transformation, and benefiting people's livelihoods, with a notable increase in sales of home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment [1] Group 1 - The NDRC reported that sales of products related to the trade-in program have exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan this year [1] - The NDRC plans to enhance the management of equipment update projects and accelerate project construction while strengthening fund supervision [1] - A new policy for equipment update loan interest subsidies will be introduced to further reduce financing costs for businesses [1]

Group 1 - The 2025 Lanzhou SME Financing Matchmaking Conference was held, attracting over 50 SMEs, financial institutions, and government representatives, resulting in a credit intention amount exceeding 80 million yuan [1] - The conference emphasized support for technology-based and specialized enterprises, marking a significant step in financial support for SME development in Lanzhou [1][3] - The city’s Industry and Information Technology Bureau detailed policies to support enterprise financing, while China Bank tailored differentiated financial products for SMEs based on their specific needs [3] Group 2 - The conference featured a key enterprise roadshow where representatives from specialized enterprises shared their technological innovations and financing needs, leading to on-site credit agreements with China Bank [3] - A total of 500 million yuan in financing needs were collected from participating enterprises, covering key industries such as automation, intelligent manufacturing, green manufacturing, and modern agriculture [3] - Lanzhou's financial office plans to collaborate with China Bank to implement "Inclusive Finance into Parks" activities, establishing dedicated service stations to enhance financial services for SMEs [4] Group 3 - By the first half of 2025, Lanzhou facilitated financing of 7.133 billion yuan for 144 industrial enterprises through the "Xin Yi Loan·Long Xin Tong" platform, indicating a rapid conversion of policy benefits into development momentum for enterprises [4] - The financial regulatory department responded to inquiries from enterprise representatives regarding credit loan application conditions and repayment optimization, aiming to promote a lending mechanism that supports SMEs [4]