巴菲特早期的投资收益非常高，我们从下表可以看到，1957-1968年，他的合伙公司收益远超道 琼斯指数。而巴菲特从1966年就不再接受新投资者，在1967年10月写给合伙人的信中他说 到："我觉得自己已经跟不上目前市场的形势了。"1968年，他的业绩领先道琼斯指数50个点。在 被《商业周刊》评为"全美最优秀的投资经理"时，巴菲特宣布准备离开投资界。 当我们站在现在的时点往那时看，那时正值美股战后大牛市的超级周期，幸运的巴菲特在职业生 涯的早期就遇到了一个 "超级周期" ，而他对周期拐点的直觉和急流勇退的智慧更让人佩服。 周期具有创造和吞噬财富的巨大力量。长期持续上扬的周期是"超级周期"，最显著的收益集中在 这样的周期。 下文摘自高盛奥本海默新书《周期与财富》。 这一时期通常被称作资本主义的黄金年代。在这一时期，美国通过马歇尔计划（或称欧洲复兴计 划）帮助欧洲经济复苏，有效推动了经济的爆发式增长和失业的减少。需求端受二战后"婴儿 潮"的影响也得到了进一步的增强。 2. 1982—2000年：现代周期 超级周期 1. 1949—1968年：二战后的爆发式增长 解决通胀问题是1982年后的这轮长期牛市的关键驱动因素 ...

今年以来，量化私募因为稳定的业绩表现备受市场关注，不少管理人也是抓住时机招揽人才。 量化私募已经成为资管圈的重要人才高地，吸引众多海外机构顶尖人才回流。今年3月，世坤投资高级执行研 究总监兼中国区副总经理方壮熙，正式加盟国内量化机构宁波平方和投资管理合伙企业（有限合伙）（以下简 称"平方和投资"）。另据记者了解，梁劼在世坤时曾是方壮熙下属。 从今年上半年情况看，量化策略继续受到资金追捧。私募排排网数据显示，上半年备案量化私募产品2448只， 占到备案产品总量的44.83%，较去年上半年同比增幅67.10%，较去年下半年环比增幅116.45%。 百亿量化私募成为上半年私募产品备案主力。私募排排网数据显示，上半年共有1775家私募证券管理人有备案 产品。从管理人类型来看，其中主观私募高达1007家，占比56.73%。混合私募和量化私募分别有372家和331 家，分别占比20.96%和18.65%。另外有65家私募管理人类型不详。 从管理人规模来看，0—10亿元小规模私募管理人数量达1371家，占比为77.24%。10亿 元 —50亿 元 中等规模 私募管理人数量为276家，占比为15.55%。50亿 元 以上大规 ...

上半年超九成百亿私募盈利 量化私募领跑 智通财经7月8日电，今年上半年市场流动性改善，小盘成长风格指数强势，此背景下，百亿私募整体业 绩亮眼。私募排排网数据显示，有业绩展示的50家百亿私募上半年平均收益率达10.93%，跑赢同期沪 深300指数0.03%的涨幅。其中，47家实现正收益，占比高达94%。百亿量化私募表现尤为突出，有业绩 展示的32家百亿量化私募上半年均实现正收益，平均收益率达13.72%。其中，稳博投资、进化论资 产、信弘天禾、天演资本、龙旗科技等收益居前。主观百亿私募受策略局限性影响，平均收益率为 5.51%，表现相对落后。（智通财经记者 闫军） ...

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 编者按 在财富管理的大航海时代，私募基金以其灵活的策略、专业的团队和追求绝对收益的目标，吸引了越来越多高净值投资者的目光。然而，这个 行业也因其信息较少、不对称等特性，蒙上了一层神秘的面纱。策略如何运作？团队水平如何？短、中、长期业绩表现如何？风险控制究竟如 何......这些问题，往往是投资者在做出决策时，最难穿透的"迷雾"。正是基于此，私募排排网隆重推出 " 深度揭秘100家私募 " 栏目。为投资者 拨开云雾，提供真正有价值的深度洞察。 首期我们将揭秘 量化巨头幻方量化 ，该公司管理业绩和规模均位居国内前列。 下面，就让我们一起深入了解幻方量化。（ 点此看幻方量化旗 下基金业绩、核心团队、路演 ） （下期，你最想了解哪家私募？欢迎留言提名，呼声热度高的会优先推出！） | 幻方中证1000量化多策略2号 | 中证1000指增 | | --- | --- | | 九章幻方中证500量化多策略1号 | 中证500指增 | | 九章幻方中证500量化进取1号 | 中证500指增 | | 幻方量化信淮500指数专享19号7期 | 中证500指增 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-08 股债维持震荡 股指期货：全A指数窄幅震荡 股指期权：主线维持备兑 国债期货：维持震荡 股指期货方面，昨日A股市场窄幅震荡，全A指数上下波动不到0. 4%，其中地产、公用事业领涨，电信、医疗保健领跌，热点方向并无过多 共性。个股方面,涨停家数76家，集中在电力、稳定币等相关概念。展望 后市，近期市场有量减的趋势，一方面关税消息众多，市场担心不确定 性，另一方面，前期热点方向如医疗大跌也诱发了止盈情绪，同时反内卷 方向如光伏未能接棒成为阶段主线，轮动加快扰动资金布局信心。故短线 仍以震荡市对待，短期观望。 股指期权方面，考虑到上周标的整体表现偏强，部分标的来到局部高 位，周初阶段性回调风险较大。尽管标的出现回调迹象，但昨日振幅偏 低，故周初流动性较弱，较上周五下降超50%。波动率方面，创业板ETF和 500ETF波动率下降显著，细分来看交易驱动相异。创业板ETF认沽端波动 率领跌，表征短线认沽平仓；而500ETF期权认沽侧上涨，而认购端波动率 下行，暗示市场有建仓领口策略的迹象。情绪指标方面，交易型资金情绪 中 ...

一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.70 | 49.50 | 49.50 | | 20250630 | 2025/06 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.50 | 50.30 | 50.50 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 22870.00 11599.00 | 20623.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M1(货币):同比 | % | 2.30 | 1.50 | -0.8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) considers large-scale asset purchases as the best unconventional monetary policy tool for managing monetary policy, especially when interest rates are at zero [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the ECB's governing council, emphasizes that quantitative easing (QE) should be the preferred option for achieving lasting changes in monetary policy [1]. - Villeroy expresses a preference for QE over negative interest rate policies, despite past criticisms regarding potential side effects such as asset bubbles and increased inequality [1]. - The ECB's evaluation report suggests a possible future reactivation of QE, although some officials indicate that its use may be more restrained [1]. Group 2: Policy Effectiveness - Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB's executive board, notes that the cost-benefit ratio of QE for stimulating the economy is no longer ideal, while long-term refinancing operations have shown significant effectiveness in restoring bank lending [1]. - Philip Lane, the ECB's chief economist, states that the intensity of any policy response will depend on the severity of the underlying issues [1]. Group 3: Risk Management - Villeroy asserts that the ECB's recent evaluation clarifies the principle of "moderate" use of such tools and suggests that negative impacts can be mitigated [2]. - He mentions that there are various ways to control the potential risks associated with the composition of the central bank's balance sheet due to QE [2].

Industry Overview - Battery trays are crucial components of the power system in electric vehicles, accounting for 20%-30% of the battery system's weight and requiring high precision, corrosion resistance, high-temperature resistance, and impact resistance [1][4] - The battery tray industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with market size projected to increase from 2.63 billion yuan in 2020 to 33.93 billion yuan by 2024, maintaining a double-digit growth rate [7][8] Market Demand - The demand for battery trays is primarily driven by the electric vehicle market, with the market size for electric vehicle battery trays expected to reach 28.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing 84% of the total market [8] - The energy storage system market is also growing rapidly, with a projected market size of 5.429 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 16% of the total market [8] Competitive Landscape - The battery tray industry features a concentrated market share among key players, including traditional component manufacturers, battery manufacturers, and material extension companies [12] - Major participants include Huayu Automotive, Huada Technology, Lingyun Industrial, and Ningde Times, among others, with a focus on aluminum alloy and high-strength steel products [14][15] Production Capacity Dynamics - Leading companies are accelerating production capacity to capture market share, with Jiangsu Tianjun Precision Technology Co., Ltd. planning to invest in 14 high-standard production lines for battery trays, aiming for an annual output of approximately 400,000 units [15] - YouSheng Aluminum's battery tray series is experiencing significant revenue growth, with a 59.85% increase in 2024, contributing to 29.77% of the company's total revenue [23][25] Trends in the Battery Tray Industry - The industry is witnessing a shift towards lightweight, integrated, and modular products, with aluminum alloys remaining the dominant material due to their excellent strength-to-weight ratio and processability [29][30] - Innovations in battery pack structure technologies (CTP/CTC/CTB) are driving the need for battery trays to integrate more functions, requiring higher rigidity, strength, and thermal management compatibility [30]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced tariffs on imports from 14 countries, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% depending on the country, effective from August 1 [2] - The tariffs include 25% on Japan and South Korea, 30% on Bosnia and South Africa, and up to 40% on Laos and Myanmar [2] - Trump warned of reciprocal tariffs if Japan and South Korea respond with their own increases [2] Group 2 - China's National Development and Reform Commission allocated an additional 10 billion yuan for employment support projects, aiming to create jobs for 310,000 individuals [3] - The investment will fund 1,975 projects, with 45.9% of the budget allocated for labor remuneration [3] Group 3 - The State Council's Food Safety Committee proposed a reward mechanism to encourage food industry employees to report safety risks, aiming for implementation by the end of 2026 [4] - The mechanism will initially target key sectors and larger businesses before expanding to other food production and import/export entities [4] Group 4 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment emphasized the need for high standards in marine ecological protection and comprehensive governance of key sea areas [7] - The ministry aims to enhance the efficiency of environmental resource allocation and strengthen carbon market construction [7] Group 5 - China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the formal release of the international standard for autonomous vehicle testing, ISO 34505:2025, which fills a gap in testing scenario generation [8] - The standard was developed with collaboration from Chinese and German experts and aims to establish evaluation methods for autonomous driving systems [8] Group 6 - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets increased by 0.4% compared to the previous week, with the current price at 20.66 yuan per kilogram [11] - The overall agricultural product wholesale price index rose by 0.34 points, indicating a general increase in food prices [11] Group 7 - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion at the end of June, marking a $32.2 billion increase from May, representing a 0.98% rise [12] - The gold reserves also increased, reaching 7.39 million ounces, continuing an eight-month growth trend [12] Group 8 - The Shanghai government introduced measures to promote the high-quality development of the software and information services industry, including a pilot policy for foreign-funded game companies [14] - This initiative is expected to enhance the growth potential for foreign enterprises in the gaming sector [14] Group 9 - Chery Automobile established a domestic business division, which includes four sub-divisions, but clarified that this restructuring does not involve changes in brand positioning [25] - The adjustment aims to focus on strategic alignment and resource integration [25] Group 10 - The new quantitative trading regulations, effective from July 7, focus on enhancing supervision of high-frequency trading and outline specific management requirements [27] - The regulations aim to address abnormal trading behaviors and improve market stability [27]

Group 1: Securities Asset Management Business - Nine securities firms have asset management business scales exceeding 100 billion, with CITIC Securities leading at 343.24 billion [1][2] - The total number of securities asset management products reached 22,482, with a total scale of 5.93 trillion, accounting for 9.23% of the overall asset management market [1][2] - FOF products show significant return differentiation, with strategic allocation products performing exceptionally well, indicating market preference for specific strategies [2] Group 2: Bond ETFs - The first batch of 10 sci-tech bond ETFs sold out on the first day, each with a fundraising cap of 3 billion, indicating strong market demand [3] - The total scale of bond ETFs reached 389.94 billion before the launch of the new products, with expectations to surpass 400 billion following the successful fundraising [3] - The success of these bond ETFs may enhance brand influence for related companies and attract more investors to the bond ETF sector [3] Group 3: Private Securities Products - The number of newly registered private securities products doubled compared to the previous month, with a total of 1,100 products registered in June, marking a significant increase [5] - In the first half of the year, the number of new private securities investment funds reached 5,461, a year-on-year increase of 53.61% [5] - The increase in private product registrations reflects a growing expectation for capital market recovery and a shift in funds towards private sectors [5][6] Group 4: Talent Movement in Asset Management - Sun Jianbo, a former champion fund manager, joined Wanlian Asset Management as Vice General Manager, indicating a significant talent movement in the asset management industry [4] - Wanlian Asset Management aims to expand its capital and pursue public fund licenses, reflecting a strategic focus on growth in asset management [4] - The influx of experienced professionals into the asset management sector may enhance competition and resource allocation within the industry [4]