2025 年 05 月 07 日 策略类●证券研究报告 政策强化股市震荡偏强的趋势 事件点评 投资要点 事件：2025 年 5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行、国家金融监 督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳 预期"有关情况。 发布会侧重落实政治局会议的政策方向，货币宽松和支持科技创新是重点。（1） 央行出台的 10 项政策措施主要集中在货币宽松、稳定楼市和消费、支持科技创新、 稳定股市：一是降准 0.5 个百分点释放长期流动性约 1 万亿、下调 7 天逆回购利率 0.1 个百分点、下调结构性货币政策工具利率 0.25 个百分点，这些均是为了给市场 增加长期流动性、降低融资成本；二是降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分 点，目的是刺激居民购房需求、稳定楼市；三是设立 5000 亿服务消费与养老再贷 款，目的是进一步提振消费；四是将科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度由 5000 亿增 加到 8000 亿，同时创设科技创新债券风险分担工具，支持科技创新的政策导向明 确。五是将互换便利 5000 亿元和股票回购增持再贷款 3000 亿元额度合并使用， 总额度 ...

5月7日，国新办举行新闻发布会，邀请中国人民银行、金融监管总局和证监会共同介绍"一揽子金融政策支持 稳市场稳预期"有关情况。本次一揽子金融政策着力于五个方面，即稳市场、稳预期、扩内需、促科创、扶企 业。锚定上述目标，货币政策、金融监管政策和资本市场政策环环相扣、组合发力，兼顾稳定与发展，对实体 经济和资本市场提供全方位支持。 一、政策梳理：金融政策全方位发力 一是货币政策，包括三大类共十项措施。 总量上，如期落地全面降准降息，对已适用存款准备金率最低标准 的汽车金融公司和金融租赁公司的法准率阶段性调降至0，降息同时涉及逆回购利率、LPR、结构性货币工具 利率以及公积金贷款利率；结构上，新增"服务消费与养老再贷款"，创设"科技创新债券风险分担工具"，扩大 已有的"科技创新和技术改造再贷款"，合并两项支持资本市场的货币政策工具，旨在支持科技创新、扩大消 费、稳定股市。 表1：十项货币政策增量措施 | 三大类 | 政策意图 | 十项措施 | | --- | --- | --- | | 数量型 | 保持流动性 | 降低存款准备金利率 0.5pct，将向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿。 | | 政策 | 充裕 | 完善 ...

2. 政策跟踪： 加快建成具有全球影响力的科技创新高地 2.1 中央政治局会议："坚定不移办好自己的事" 中共中央政治局4月25日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议对外部风险高度警惕，对 内强调"办好自己的事"，并将"稳就业"放在更加突出位置。针对当前国际形势，政治局会议将其上升为"国 际经贸斗争"，与"反腐败斗争"措辞一致。在外部高度不确定性环境下，会议更加关注内部的高质量发展， 强调"坚定不移办好自己的事"，"着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期"。 未来，政策的灵活性和超常规性将兼备，会议提出"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规 逆周期调节"。因当前美国政策的高度不确定性，我国经济表现的可预测性也有所下降。再结合政治局会 议"要强化底线思维，充分备足预案"的表述，预计后续政策高度关注经济数据的边际变化，在数据波动加大 的时间段再度加码，保证经济增长的稳定性。 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 政策跟踪 政治局会议要求对既定政策的快速落实，明确提出"加紧实施"，"既定政策早出台早见效"。首先，政治 局会议敦促既定政策落地，预计两会相关政策后续落实速度将进一步 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 05 月 07 日 "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"发布有哪些增量信息？ ——政策专题（0507） "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"发布会超预期部署超过 20 项增量政策， 落地全面降准降息、四月政治局会议提到的新增结构性货币政策工具、以及经 济主题记者会提到的公募基金改革方案等政策，诚意满满，有望推动市场风险 偏好持续上行。 ❑ 风险提示：政策理解不全面、经济数据及政策不及预期、海外政策超预期收 紧。 专题报告 相关报告 1、《四月政治局会议有哪些要 点？——政策专题（0425）》 2025-4-25 2、《历史上，我国出台过哪些 促消费政策 —— 扩内需政策 研究专题（一）》2025-04-07 3、《经济主题记者会值得重点 关注的 19 条重要增量信息—— 政策点评报告》2025-03-07 4、《2025 年政府工作报告怎么 看？对 A 股有什么影响？—— 政策专题》2025-03-05 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 郭佳宜 S1090525040003 guojiayi@cmschina.co ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China announced a series of monetary policy measures including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [3][4] - The central bank also lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 0.1 percentage points from 1.5% to 1.4%, which will lead to a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3][4] Group 2: Economic Growth and Demand Expansion - The measures aim to address external shocks, expand domestic demand, and reduce the cost of bank liabilities, especially in light of ongoing global trade tensions and low domestic inflation [4][5] - The central bank is also focusing on boosting consumer spending and investment by lowering the reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and leasing companies to 0% and establishing a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and pension re-loan" to support financial institutions in these sectors [6][8] Group 3: Support for Enterprises and Foreign Trade - Increased financing support for small and micro enterprises is a priority, with an additional 300 billion yuan allocated for agricultural and small enterprise re-loans, bringing the total to 3 trillion yuan [8][9] - The financial regulatory authority plans to implement a series of policies to stabilize foreign trade, including enhancing export credit insurance and providing tailored financial services for affected enterprises [9][10] Group 4: Real Estate Market Stability - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization after a prolonged adjustment, with first-tier cities experiencing a rebound in second-hand housing prices [12][13] - Measures include lowering mortgage rates and public housing loan rates to alleviate the financial burden on homebuyers and stimulate demand [13][14] Group 5: Capital Market Stability - The China Securities Regulatory Commission expressed confidence in stabilizing the stock market, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering from previous lows and showing an 8.91% increase [17][18] - Future policies will focus on internal stability, institutional reforms, and external openness to enhance market resilience [17][22] Group 6: Technological Innovation Financing - The government aims to establish a comprehensive financial system to support technological innovation through various financing channels, including loans, equity financing, and bond issuance [23][24] - Specific measures include promoting the issuance of technology innovation bonds and enhancing insurance coverage for technology enterprises [26][29]

5月7日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券 监督管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，贯彻4月25日中央政治局会议精神，进一步实施好适度宽松的货币 政策，推动经济高质量发展，人民银行将加大宏观调控强度，推出一揽子货币政策措施。其中，他提到，通 过降准等措施，加大中长期流动性供给，保持市场流动性充裕；下调政策利率，降低结构性货币政策工具利 率，同时调降公积金贷款利率。创设并加力实施结构性货币政策工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、普惠金融 等领域。降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。 ▲发布会现场 中国人民大学中国资本市场研究院联席院长赵锡军表示，这一揽子政策有很强的前瞻性和针对性，有很强的 政策力度，包含了丰富的结构性工具。浙商资产研究院总经理冯毅表示，出台降准降息等一揽子货币政策， 对推动经济高质量发展以及扩大内需都有更好的促进作用。 一揽子政策主打前瞻性和针对性 潘功胜在发布会上称，去年12月中央经济工作会议和今年政府工作报告都明确提出，今年要实施适度宽松的 ...

Group 1 - Xi Jinping departed Beijing for Moscow to conduct a state visit and attend the 80th anniversary celebration of the victory in the Great Patriotic War [2][20] - Xi Jinping published a signed article titled "Learning from History to Create the Future" in the Russian media [3] - The Chinese government announced a package of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations [6] Group 2 - During the "May Day" holiday, over 1.4 billion people traveled, indicating a vibrant and dynamic China [7][8] - The national consumption industry saw a year-on-year sales revenue increase of 15.2% during the "May Day" holiday, with significant growth in home appliances and communication equipment sales [13] - The logistics industry in China continued to expand, with the logistics prosperity index reaching 51.1 in April [12] Group 3 - In the first quarter, large-scale light industry enterprises achieved revenue of 5.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [10] - The foreign exchange reserves of China reached 32,817 billion USD at the end of April, reflecting a stable economic outlook [11] - The largest "photovoltaic hydrogen storage integration" project in China has commenced full operation, generating over 4.6 billion kWh of electricity annually [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, which includes measures such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates to support the real economy and boost market confidence [1][3][4]. Financial Policy Measures - The financial policy package includes a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates, a 0.25 percentage point reduction in structural monetary policy tool rates, and a 0.25 percentage point decrease in personal housing provident fund loan rates [1]. - The implementation of these policies is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the financial market and reduce the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by about 0.1 percentage points [1][3]. Support for the Real Economy - The policies are designed to lower the overall financing costs for society, thereby supporting stable growth in the real economy [3]. - There is a focus on providing targeted support for small and micro enterprises, as well as private enterprises, to ensure that funds are directed to where they are most needed [4][7]. Market Stability and Confidence - The stability of capital markets is crucial for the overall economic and social landscape, and the policies aim to enhance market monitoring and risk assessment to address external shocks [5][6]. - The role of central financial institutions, such as the Central Huijin Investment, is emphasized as a means to stabilize market confidence and expectations [6]. Focus Areas for Immediate Impact - Short-term efforts will concentrate on supporting key sectors such as technological innovation, consumption, and real estate, which are expected to yield quicker results [7]. - The policies are not a one-time solution but require ongoing coordination with medium- and long-term strategies to foster a conducive environment for high-quality development and modernization [7].

揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期 关键时间节点的发布会 核心观点: 分析师 杨超 ☎：010-8092-7696 网: yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030004 研究助理:王雪莹、周美丽 相关研究 | 2025-05-05，年报和一季报有哪些亮点? | | --- | | 2025-05-04. "五一"假期事件梳理及市场展望 | | 2025-04-25,"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"聚焦哪些 | | 方面? -- 4 月中央政治局会议解读 | | 2025-04-23,公募基金一季度持仓释放哪些信号? | | 2025-04-08. 中国版平准基金横空出世提振市场信心 | | 2025-04-08,汇金入市,坚定看多 | | 2025-04-03, "对等关税"冲击市场配置预期 | | 2025-04-03,港股 2025 年二季度投资展望:从估值修 | | 复到盈利兑现 | | 2025-04-02,2025年二季度 A 股投资展望:风格切换, | | 均衡配置 | | 2025-03-22. 港股市场 2025年以来行情拆解 | | 2025-03- ...

行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 及 产 业 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 研究支持 金黎丹 A0230123060002 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 金黎丹 (8621)23297818× jinld@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 05 月 07 日 增量政策巩固市场回稳向好势头， 看好非银 Beta 属性 看好 ——国新办"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"发布 会点评 事件：5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关 情况，中国人民银行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽、中国证监会主席吴清出席会 议。 ⚫ 央行：推出一揽子货币政策措施，主要有三大类（数量型政策、价格型政策、结构型政 策）共十项措施。价格工具方面，全面降准 0.5%，政策利率下调 0.1%，结构性货币政 策工具利率下调 0.25% ...