Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market is pricing in a potential interest rate cut in December, although some committee members prefer to wait for further data [1] - The speaker believes the Fed can and should cut rates, potentially quicker, but respects concerns about inflation [1][2] - Current inflation metrics show core PCE at approximately 250 basis points (25%) over six months, with other metrics closer to 300 basis points (30%) [2] - The speaker argues that current inflationary expectations do not prevent the Fed from acting, citing 5-year inflation break-evens at 250 basis points (25%) [3] - The interest rate tool is less effective on capital expenditure (capex) for large companies funded by free cash flow, but significantly impacts small businesses and low-income individuals [15][16] - Keeping interest rates 100 basis points (1%) higher than necessary costs the US government $100 billion per annum, given that 90% of US Treasury financing is in two-year instruments [16] - A rate cut could help the housing market by lowering mortgage rates, stimulating home building, and increasing labor mobility [12][13] Labor Market Dynamics - Significant labor displacement is expected in the next few years due to technology advancements, as evidenced by announcements from companies like Amazon and UPS [4] - Productivity is increasing across various sectors, including inventory management, logistics, and predictive maintenance, leading to lower costs and increased M&A activity [6] - Companies are generally comfortable with their current labor force, with some freezing hiring and others proactively reducing labor [8] - Recent data, excluding the non-cyclical healthcare sector, indicates negative job growth, which is expected to persist [9] Economic Outlook & Risks - The US economy and companies are generally in good shape, but the labor market is not as strong [10] - The amount of US debt is a tail risk, especially given that 89% to 90% is short-term (two years), requiring constant refinancing [18][19] - The speaker believes the US can deleverage the economy if nominal GDP remains above the cost of debt, targeting 5% nominal GDP growth [21] - Complacency and excessive risk-taking in the market are concerns, but the speaker does not see a bubble in public markets due to strong free cash flow generation by major companies [23][25][26] - The economy is bifurcated, with strong capex and high-income spending, but weaker low-income spending [24]

Market Trust - US Treasuries remain the world's most trusted asset, despite concerns over deficits and attacks on the Fed [1]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Governor Waller calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in December https://t.co/U9Z0MvIBvT ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Fed Governor Christopher Waller calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in December. https://t.co/wWWeMCAP4i ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's actions and upcoming economic data are expected to significantly influence the cryptocurrency market's performance as 2025 concludes [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions are critical in shaping the future of cryptocurrencies [1] - Economic data releases will play a pivotal role in determining market trends for cryptocurrencies [1]

Trump's next Fed chair will face far more internal discord than Jerome Powell, @jonathanjlevin says (via @opinion) https://t.co/vGs04VrNlE ...

The dollar climbed to the highest level in three months, propelled by a weakening yen and the Federal Reserve pulling back from additional interest-rate cuts this year https://t.co/gEo82CkaiN ...

Let's bring in uh Randall Crosner, former Federal Reserve Board Governor, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Professor. Uh Randy, it's good to good to have you here. And uh it it was an interesting uh press conference obviously and it I think maybe has to be viewed through the filter of okay, we have no dot plot, so that's not going to speak for the the committee's outlook.Um Fed chair often wants to preserve some optionality, you know, make sure you're not locked into some kind of outcome in si ...

Stocks Fall Amid Trade, Tech and Fed Crosswinds. Get market insight on Bloomberg Surveillance. @ptsweeney and @norahmulinda are LIVE on YouTube https://t.co/m9IglISGoz ...

When it comes to the tilt of jobs versus the Fed's mandate on inflation and price stability, which do you think it should tilt more towards given what we've seen so far. >> Well, look, one of the very rare things would be to cut rates when you have 3% inflation or slightly under 3% wherever the number is. We always want to keep uh 1% real rate.So, this may be as far as you can push it right now. And maybe that's what the Kansas City Fed uh is concerned about. We'll have to see when we get a better briefing ...