🇺🇸 TRUMP SAYS FED POWELL IS TOOLATE IN CUTTING INTEREST RATES. https://t.co/ruQhKFdBMj ...

Taking a look at Treasury yields. Uh the tenure at 4.4% uh 2% this morning, the 2-year at 3.9%. Joining us now, Pria Misra, the fixed income portfolio manager at JP Morgan Asset Management.Pria, great to have you with us. Thanks for having um what are we seeing priced into treasuries right now. Have we seen the effects of the tax bill. Have we seen the assumption that the Fed is going to cut rates.I mean, what are we looking at. I love that question because there's so many crossurrens with with interest rat ...

The ECB must keep all its options open and should neither promise nor exclude another cut in interest rates, according to Governing Council member Joachim Nagel https://t.co/ur7kr9Hxt1 ...

Market Outlook - Verdens Capital advisors haven't set a specific S&P 500 target for a year, focusing on earnings as the primary driver [3] - The market's continued record highs, despite unresolved tariff issues, make the industry cautious about the second half of the year [6] - Concerns exist regarding the long-term economic impact of global debt exceeding 100% of GDP in many developed economies [8] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The industry notes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to delay interest rate cuts due to uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation [9][10] - The potential September rate cut by the Fed is now viewed as a 50-50 chance, contingent on upcoming data and tariff implications [15] - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by the need to balance concerns about slowing growth and a potentially cracking labor market with the unknown impact of tariffs on inflation [12][13][14] Trade and Tariffs - The market initially reacted negatively to the Trump administration's worst-case tariff scenarios, but rebounded when less severe outcomes materialized [5][6] - The postponement of tariffs to August delays the Fed's ability to assess their impact on inflation [9] - The ultimate impact of tariffs on businesses and consumers remains uncertain, requiring a wait-and-see approach [14]

Group 1 - Investors should prepare for weaker stock market performance in the next six months according to Vanguard's outlook [1] - Vanguard's global head of rates, Roger Hallam, anticipates a slowdown in growth during the second half of the year [1] - The labor market is expected to gradually cool while inflation rises, leading to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2 - Hallam believes that prioritizing jobs will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates towards the end of the year [2] - This environment is expected to create a favorable condition for bonds, encouraging clients to allocate more to fixed income [2] - Vanguard is launching three U.S. government bond exchange-traded funds, including the Vanguard Government Securities Active ETF (VGVT) [2]

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged caught markets off guard, leading to criticism that the bank’s radio silence had left markets without guidance https://t.co/dopQH0y46x ...

Trade and Tariffs - The market is showing fatigue towards tariff headlines, anticipating room for negotiation in trade talks [2] - The market expects potential trade deals, preferring them over high tariffs, leading to current calmness [3] - Average tariff levels are expected to be slightly higher, but not reaching the high levels seen in early April [5] - Uncertainty remains regarding how much tariffs will be passed on to corporations versus absorbed by consumers, impacting consumer spending patterns [10] Monetary Policy and Fiscal Outlook - The Federal Reserve's September decision will heavily rely on the jobs report [7][8] - Tariffs are seen as a revenue source to fund additional spending, potentially leading the US Treasury to issue more short-term debt to keep funding costs down [13] - Aggressive rate cuts by the Fed could lead to higher back-end yields, advocating for curve steepness [19] - The market is closely watching the private sector's willingness to buy government bonds, as they are now the primary price setters [14][15] UK Gilts Market - Concerns persist regarding the UK's fiscal situation and funding, especially with slowing growth [20] - Stability and the Bank of England's proactive rate cuts could make gilts attractive [22]

Interest Rate Policy - Fed watchers suggest that Powell's successor is unlikely to deliver interest rate cuts as quickly as Trump desires [1]

Malaysia lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time in five years, acting after US President Donald Trump increased a threatened tariff on the Southeast Asian country to 25% https://t.co/qSPuj21zG8 ...

Tariff concerns will likely weigh on Malaysia’s currency and economy in the near term, according to analysts, after the country’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time in five years. https://t.co/iK7LTQX9fs ...