Economic Impact of War & Sanctions - Despite war and sanctions, Russia's economy has shown resilience, even outpacing some advanced nations in growth in 2024 [1][5] - Initial expectations of sanctions crippling the Russian economy, such as "turning the ruble to rubble," did not fully materialize [4] - Russia reoriented its economy by shifting export markets to China and India, primarily for fuel exports, mitigating the impact of sanctions [7] - The war has acted as a stimulus, with military spending increasing from approximately $50 billion to nearly $150 billion annually since 2022 [2][3] Financial Sustainability & Future Outlook - Russia is currently spending more than it earns, depleting its reserves to supplement its budget [9] - At the current rate of expenditure, Russia's reserves are projected to be depleted around 2030 [9] - Oil and gas sector contributes about 20% of Russia's GDP, but analysts warn that current spending levels are unsustainable [8] - Potential secondary sanctions, such as 100% tariffs on those buying Russian oil, could be catastrophic if major buyers like China and India cease purchases, as oil and gas revenues account for 1/3 to 1/2 of Russia's annual budget [10] Geopolitical & Economic Risks - Increased military spending has led to a decrease in unemployment, reaching a 30-year low [8] - While wage inflation has outpaced general inflation, improving the standard of living for Russians, this is considered unsustainable [12] - Experts anticipate Russia will maintain elevated defense spending even after a potential ceasefire, driven by perceived threats [13][14]

Watch: Russia’s economy has been thriving despite huge military expenses and waves of sanctions. But how long can it continue? https://t.co/IxWY2TUFMK ...

Financial Markets Overview - The Dow is up 12% [1] - The S&P is up almost 14% [1] - NASDAQ is surging 18% [1] - The Bloomberg MAG Seven Index is up 19% [1] - Spot gold is up eight dollars the ounce, 3371% [1] - West Texas Intermediate crude is down 15% to 6629% [1] US Economic Policy & BLS - President Trump intends to announce a new Fed Governor and BLS Commissioner soon [1] - The President alleges the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data was rigged, but no evidence has been provided [1][2] - The former BLS chief is out, and the President will nominate a replacement [1] - Congress has been starving the statistical agencies of cash for years [2] - The response rate for the first May survey, which was revised downward significantly by the third one in July, was 42%, The final number was 89% response rate [2] Federal Reserve Board - Adriana Googler's departure creates an opportunity to nominate a new Fed Governor [1] - Jay Powell could stay on as governor until 2028, even if his term as chair is over in 2026 [2] - The market would assume that whoever is chosen would be that [2] International Trade & Tariffs - President Trump said he would hike India's tariff rate for buying Russian oil [1] - India responded, saying the targeting of the country is unjustified and unreasonable and will take necessary measures to safeguard its interests [1] - The PURL is a financing mechanism worth about 500 million euros, 570 $8 million [10] US-NATO-Ukraine - The U S would be providing more weaponry to Ukraine, but that distribution would be handled by NATO, and that NATO countries would pay for it [8] - The announcement of 570 $8 million worth of American weapons, munitions going to the Netherlands and then provided to the Ukraine is a big step forward [11]

Tonight, President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff set to travel to Russia ahead of the president's Friday deadline for the Kremlin to halt its war against Ukraine. 6 months into office, Trump suggesting his patience with President Vladimir Putin has waned. >> We had numerous good conversations where we could have ended this thing >> and all of a sudden bombs start flying.A source familiar with the administration's plans tells NBC News that in addition to Wickoff's meetings in Russia, the White House's ...

Tightening sanctions from America have forced Iran to explore new ways to pay for the foreign goods it so desperately needs. Flooding the Gulf with fruits and vegetables is one of them https://t.co/0of2ncbrXS ...

Donald Trump has placed sanctions on a Brazilian Supreme Court Judge under the Magnitsky Act—legislation that has previously been used against genocidal Burmese generals and corrupt Russian officials https://t.co/QE1TwNjMY7 ...

The US imposed sanctions on members of the Palestine Liberation Organization and Palestinian Authority, a counter-action to moves from European countries toward recognizing a Palestinian state. https://t.co/Qm1CT5huQc ...

The US has previously vowed “maximum pressure” against Iran to curb its crude imports, and slapped sweeping sanctions on vessels and people it claims are involved in the trade https://t.co/iyTorYE5Cl ...

The US Treasury Department imposed its most sweeping Iran-related sanctions in seven years https://t.co/9eykoR5r0e ...

Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - Consumption growth has slowed significantly, from 3% last year to only 1% this year, marking the first two descents since 1993 focused on consumer behavior and the labor market [1] - With inflation around 2-4% and short rates at 43%, the Fed's monetary policy is considered too restrictive, suggesting potential for more rate cuts than the dot plot indicates [1] Geopolitical Risks & US-China Relations - Despite potential diplomatic efforts, both the US and China are reportedly preparing for potential conflict over Taiwan [1] - The exchange of Nvidia H20 chips for rare earth magnets is viewed as a questionable transaction, potentially enabling China's military advancements [1] - Concessions to China are seen as enabling the modernization of their combat forces, particularly in AI capabilities [1] US-Russia Relations & Sanctions - President Trump is setting a deadline for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, threatening stricter sanctions if no progress is made [1] - The US has the ability to impose more impactful sanctions on Russia by targeting remaining foreign correspondent banks that facilitate dollar transactions [2][3]