文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 3 月工业企业利润数据：利润增速转正 3 月，根据统计局数据，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 2.5% ，前值为 -0.3% 。库存方面，截止至今年 3 月，库存同比 4.2% ，前值为 4.2% 。 量、价、利润率拆分来看 ， 量增价落，收入增速回升，利润率弱于去年同期。 PPI 同比， 3 月同比为 -2.5% ， 2 月为 -2.2% 。工业增加值 3 月增速为 7.7% ， 1-2 月为 5.9% ；收入端 3 月增速为 4.42% ， 1- 2 月为 2.8% 。利润率方面， 3 月为 4.97% ，去年同期（可比口径）为 5.06% 。利润率拆分来看， 3 月毛 利率为 14.2% ，去年同期为 14.5% ；费用率 8.21% ，去年同期为 8.41% ；其他损益收入比为 1.0% ，去 年同期为 0.92% 。 分行业来看 ， 3 月，采矿业增速为 -26.03% ，前值为 -25.2% ；制造业增速为 11.9% ，前值为 4.8% ；电 热气水 ...

0:00 南方财经全媒体记者 李依农 上海报道 时隔7个月规上工业利润重回正增长 时隔7个月，全国规模以上工业企业累计利润重回正增长。 4月27日，国家统计局公布数据显示，1—3月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额15093.6亿元，同 比增长0.8%。3月份，规模以上工业企业利润由1—2月份下降0.3%转为增长2.6%，企业当月利润也有所 改善。 如何解读这份数据？在当前外部环境仍然复杂的背景下，工业企业利润增速出现回升，主要体现出哪些 积极变化？后续能否延续改善态势？一起来听听财信金控首席经济学家伍超明的分析。 微观主体信心有所恢复 伍超明：一季度规上工业企业利润由降转增、全面回升，取得良好开局，但企业经营仍面临不少困难与 挑战。主要可以从四个方面来看。 一是量与利润率的改善是工业企业利润增速由负转正的主因。今年以来"抢出口效应"和"两新""两重"政 策的托举支撑了两大因素的改善。 二是制造业尤其是高技术制造业成为拉动利润增长的重要力量。一季度规上制造业利润同比增长 7.6%，高出全部工业6.8个百分点；高技术制造业利润增速由1-2月份的-5.8%提高到3月份的3.8%，是重 要边际拉动力量。 三是微观 ...

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In Q1 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 15,093.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[1] - The profit growth rate shifted from decline to increase, primarily driven by the "Two New" policies[1] - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors significantly contributed to profit growth, with equipment manufacturing profits rising by 6.4%[3] Group 2: Price and Cost Dynamics - In March 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, exerting pressure on profit growth[2] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises was 4.7% in Q1 2025, indicating room for improvement, especially in the manufacturing sector with a margin of approximately 3.91%[2] - The industrial capacity utilization rate was 74.1%, showing a seasonal decline compared to Q4 2024, leading to a slight increase in unit costs[2] Group 3: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The "Two New" policies are expected to continue supporting profit recovery, although price adjustments are still needed[1] - The U.S. tariff war is estimated to impact industrial profits minimally, accounting for about CNY 2,000 billion or 2.7% of total profits in 2024[4] - Demand-side recovery is anticipated to strengthen in the second half of 2025, potentially leading to improved profit margins for industrial enterprises[5]

Group 1: Profit Recovery - In March 2025, industrial enterprises' profits showed a year-on-year increase of +2.6%, reversing the cumulative decline of -0.3% observed in January-February 2025[4] - Cumulative profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to March 2025 was +0.8%, compared to -0.3% for January-February 2025[2] - The cumulative revenue growth for industrial enterprises from January to March 2025 was +3.4%, up from +2.8% in January-February 2025[2] Group 2: Driving Factors - Industrial production maintained a rapid growth rate, with the industrial added value in March 2025 increasing by +7.7% year-on-year, an acceleration of 1.8 percentage points from January-February 2025[5] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises improved to 5.0% in March 2025, up from 4.5% in January-February 2025[6] - The PPI (Producer Price Index) year-on-year decline expanded to -2.5% in March 2025, indicating pressures from falling energy prices and weak export prices[4] Group 3: Sector Performance - Manufacturing profits increased by +7.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, while mining profits decreased by -25.5%[15] - The profit margin for the manufacturing sector rose to 3.91% in the first quarter of 2025, an increase of 0.19 percentage points from January-February 2025[15] - The share of manufacturing profits in March 2025 rose to 74.1%, compared to 68.3% in the same month last year[15] Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming U.S. tariff policies are expected to impact domestic exports and corporate profits, creating uncertainty in the market[3] - The April Politburo meeting emphasized high-quality development to counter external uncertainties, focusing on stabilizing and expanding the domestic market[3] - The recovery of industrial profits is contingent on continued policy support and the ability to adapt to external economic changes[37]

Core Viewpoint - In the first quarter of 2025, China's industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 1.509 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with March showing a 2.6% increase, indicating a positive shift in profit growth after a period of decline [1][2][3]. Group 1: Profit Growth and Economic Indicators - The profit growth of industrial enterprises turned positive for the first time since August 2024, supported by improved macroeconomic policies and a strong increase in industrial added value, which rose by 6.5% year-on-year in the first quarter [2][3]. - The manufacturing sector's profit margin improved slightly, with a cumulative profit margin of 4.7% in the first quarter, up by 0.17 percentage points from the previous quarter, while the profit margin for manufacturing shifted from negative to positive [2][3]. - The increase in profits was primarily driven by volume growth, with revenue rising by 3.4% in the first quarter, supported by strong domestic and international demand [2][3]. Group 2: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the positive profit growth, challenges remain, including increased turnover days for finished goods and accounts receivable, indicating pressure on cash flow for industrial enterprises [3][4]. - The external environment is becoming more challenging due to factors like "reciprocal tariffs," which may impact export performance, and persistent low prices affecting profit margins [4][5]. - The Central Political Bureau's recent meeting emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to support industrial enterprises, particularly in light of external shocks and the need for integration of domestic and foreign trade [5].

Domestic News - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized that parties involved in the sale of overseas ports by CK Hutchison must not evade antitrust reviews and cannot implement the concentration before approval, or they will face legal consequences [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and six other departments announced an increase in the cash tax refund limit to 20,000 RMB to optimize the outbound tax refund policy and expand inbound consumption [1] - In the first quarter of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 1,509.36 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [2][3] Industrial Sector - The profit of state-controlled enterprises decreased by 1.4% year-on-year to 559.95 billion RMB, while profits of joint-stock enterprises grew by 0.1% to 1,110.15 billion RMB, foreign and Hong Kong-Macau-Taiwan invested enterprises saw a profit increase of 2.8% to 388.35 billion RMB, and private enterprises experienced a slight decline of 0.3% to 370.97 billion RMB [2] - The profit growth in the first quarter of 2025 marked a recovery from a 3.3% decline in the previous year, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing being significant contributors, showing profit increases of 6.4% and a turnaround from a 5.8% decline to a 3.5% growth, respectively [3] Aviation Industry - The civil aviation industry in China recorded a total passenger transport volume of 190 million in the first quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [4] Digital Skills Development - A plan was issued to enhance digital literacy and skills across the population by 2025, aiming for significant improvements in digital resource supply, talent development, and narrowing the digital skills gap [4]

建筑装饰 2025 年 04 月 27 日 加力实施"两重"建设，国内投资有望提振 看好 ——申万宏源建筑周报（20250421-20250425） 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 唐猛 A0230523080003 tangmeng@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 ⚫ 一周板块回顾：板块表现方面，SW 建筑装饰指数+0.76%，沪深 300 指数+0.38%，相对收益为+0.38pct。周涨幅最大的三个子行业分别为 基建国企（+2.34%）、设计咨询（+1.55%）、专业工程（+1.44%）， 对应行业内三个公司：ST 交投（+17.01%）、汉嘉设计（+31.37%）、 三维化学（+21.83%）；年涨幅最大的三个子行业分别是国际工程 （+3.87%）、钢结构（+ ...

Core Insights - National scale industrial enterprises in China achieved a total profit of 15,093.6 billion yuan in the first quarter, marking a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - The profit growth in March was 2.6%, reversing a decline of 0.3% in January-February, indicating an improvement in corporate profits [1] - The overall industrial profit trend shifted from a 3.3% decline in the previous year to a positive growth of 0.8% in the first quarter, ending a continuous decline since the third quarter of the previous year [1] Group 1: Profit by Industry - In the first quarter, the mining industry reported a total profit of 2,204.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.5% [3] - The manufacturing sector achieved a profit of 10,826.4 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.6% [3] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector saw profits of 2,062.8 billion yuan, increasing by 5.4% [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Out of 41 major industrial categories, 24 experienced year-on-year profit growth, indicating a growth rate of nearly 60% [3] - The equipment manufacturing sector emerged as a significant contributor to profit growth, with a 6.4% increase in profits, accounting for 32.0% of total profits among large-scale industrial enterprises [3] - The contribution of the equipment manufacturing sector to overall profit growth was 2.0 percentage points, showing an increase in its impact compared to earlier months [3] Group 3: Policy Impact - The "two new" policies significantly boosted profits, with specialized and general equipment industries seeing profit increases of 14.2% and 9.5%, respectively, surpassing the average industrial profit growth [4] - Specific sectors such as electronic and electrical machinery manufacturing experienced rapid profit growth rates of 56.3% and 24.6% [4] - The consumer goods sector benefited from policies promoting the replacement of old products, with industries like wearable smart devices and kitchen appliances seeing profit increases of 78.8% and 21.7% [4] Group 4: Financial Metrics - The profit margin for large-scale industrial enterprises was 4.70% in the first quarter, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points year-on-year [5] - As of the end of March, accounts receivable for large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 25.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [6] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased to 70.9 days, reflecting a rise of 4.0 days year-on-year [6]

一季度规模以上工业企业利润由降转增 ——国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁解读2025年1—3月份工业企业利润数据 一季度，各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，着力打好宏观政策"组合拳"，政策效应 持续释放，带动工业企业利润由降转增，装备制造业、高技术制造业利润支撑作用明显，工业经济发展 质效持续提升。 工业企业利润由降转增。一季度，全国规模以上工业企业利润由上年全年同比下降3.3%转为增长 0.8%，扭转了自上年三季度以来企业累计利润持续下降的态势。3月份，规模以上工业企业利润由1—2 月份下降0.3%转为增长2.6%，企业当月利润有所改善。 工业企业营收增长持续加快。随着工业生产增长加快，带动工业企业营收继续改善。一季度，全国规模 以上工业企业营业收入同比增长3.4%，增速较1—2月份加快0.6个百分点；3月份，规模以上工业企业营 收增长4.2%，较1—2月份加快1.4个百分点。工业企业营收累计增速自上年12月份以来持续加快，为企 业盈利恢复创造有利条件。 近六成行业利润实现增长，制造业改善明显。一季度，在41个工业大类行业中，有24个行业利润同比增 长，增长面近六成；有24个行业利润增速较1—2月 ...

一季度全国规模以上工业企业利润由去年全年下降3.3%转为增长0.8%，其中装备制造业和高技术制造 业成为重要支撑。装备制造业利润同比增长6.4%，高技术制造业利润则由下降5.8%转为增长3.5%。此 外，受"两新"政策影响，专用设备和通用设备行业利润大幅增长。尽管外部环境复杂，但宏观政策效果 显现，工业经济持续恢复。(国家统计局) ...