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多空交织,豆粕横盘震荡
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 02:07
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 多空交织,豆粕横盘震荡 (豆粕周报5.12-5.16) 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 基本面影响因素概览 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆产区天气短期良 | 偏空 | 美国大豆产区天气短期正 | | | 好 | | 常。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆冲高回落,中美关税 | 偏多 | 进口成本预计震荡偏强,中 | | | 短期妥协 | | 性或偏多 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期偏淡,油厂 | 偏空 | 需求短期偏淡,油厂开机预 | | | 压榨量低位回升 | | 计维持继续回升, ...
东盟观察丨经济基本面支撑亚太股市多周上涨,泰国和马来西亚后续或降息
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-19 00:04
Group 1: Market Performance - The majority of Asia-Pacific stock markets recorded gains last week, with the Jakarta Composite Index leading with a weekly increase of 4.01% [1] - Other notable performances include the Nikkei 225 Index rising by 0.67%, the KOSPI Index increasing by 1.92%, and the S&P/ASX200 Index up by 1.37% [1][2] - Most Asia-Pacific stock markets have seen five consecutive weeks of increases, although some indices experienced slight pullbacks [2] Group 2: Economic Factors - The reduction of bilateral tariffs between the US and China has alleviated market tensions and boosted investor confidence, contributing to the rise in Asia-Pacific stock markets [2] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.4%, which has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [2][3] - Economic fundamentals, such as better-than-expected export growth in China and Japan, are providing internal support for the rise in Asia-Pacific stock markets [2][3] Group 3: Foreign Investment - There has been a significant influx of foreign capital into Asia-Pacific markets, with overseas investors net buying over 8 trillion yen (approximately $57 billion) in Japanese stocks and bonds in April, the highest level since 2005 [3] - Thailand's stock market also saw strong foreign interest, with international funds net buying $9.95 million in Thai stocks, marking the highest level since February [4] Group 4: Currency Trends - Despite the rise in stock markets, most Asia-Pacific currencies depreciated against the US dollar last week, with the Thai baht down 1.12% and the Singapore dollar down 0.19% [5] - The future performance of Asia-Pacific currencies will largely depend on US Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations and China's economic policies [5] Group 5: Central Bank Actions - Central banks in Thailand and Malaysia may consider interest rate cuts to support their economies, while Indonesia and the Philippines have less incentive to lower rates [6] - The IMF has noted that Singapore's fiscal and monetary policies are adequately supporting its economy, with sufficient fiscal space to provide targeted support if needed [5] Group 6: Trade Dynamics - South Korea's exports to China have rebounded, with exports to China accounting for 21.8% of total exports in early May, driven by stable demand and deepening industrial ties [7][8] - Cooperation between Chinese and South Korean companies in sectors like electric vehicles and cosmetics is enhancing trade, with significant growth in exports of related materials and products [8]
浙商早知道-20250519
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 23:43
证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期:2025 年 05 月 19 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 19 日 :张延兵 执业证书编号:S1230511010020 :021-80106048 :zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 【浙商固收 覃汉/沈聂萍】债券市场专题研究:跌到年线位置的 TS 或将企稳——20250516 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/李沛】A 股策略周报:冲高回落波动增大,调结构、控回撤——20250517 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 浙商早报 1 重要观点 1.1 【浙商固收 覃汉/沈聂萍】债券市场专题研究:跌到年线位置的 TS 或将企稳——20250516 重要观点 3)驱动因素 4 月以来,围绕中美关税政策,长端已经出现了 2 次单日快速定价。短期看,长债赔率问题导致市场对于 诸多因素的定价敏感度大幅降低。由于全球资本市场投资者对于特朗普关税政策变化节奏的预警普遍不是非 常充分,所以国内债市才会出现利率走势单日大幅逆转的恐慌性行情。除此以外,长端对于双降、政治局会 议、资金价格等常规因素或小超预 ...
不负横盘,只争分厘
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-18 14:26
[Table_Title] 不负横盘,只争分厘 [Table_Summary] 5 月 12-16 日,关键信息接踵而至。中美关税税率大幅缓和,4 月出 口数据超预期走强,但 PPI 同比与新增信贷则显著偏弱,空头力量占据上 峰,债市进入阶段性防御,收益率普遍上行。 ►债市"三维度"长期逻辑未变,但短期交易节奏被打乱 关税方面,虽然多项附加条款尚未被取消,美国对华综合税率仍在 40%左右,但对等关税超过 100%的降幅超出市场预期,这也意味中美之 间从 4 月中下旬的完全脱钩重新回到了"可贸易"的状态,且对抗关系的缓 和也在一定程度上为转口企业服下一颗定心丸,即贸易预期好转。美线、 欧线航运价格快速上涨,反映国内"抢出口"、"抢转口"处于旺盛状态。 基本面维度,通胀、金融数据接力出炉,内需难增或依然是当前经济 的主要掣肘。PPI 数据表现虽好于预期,但同比 -2.7%的读数难言乐观, 且一季度"信贷开门红"的透支效应开始反映在 4 月数据之中,新增贷款规 模不及预期,同时贴现票据与非银贷款等冲量分项占比极高,1-4 月累计 新增居民贷款也创下近十年最低水平。 证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 对应至政策预期层面,外 ...
“发货越快越好!”中美互降关税后多地外贸企业开足马力赶订单
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-18 14:09
Group 1 - After the latest adjustments in China-US tariff policies, many foreign trade companies have resumed their supply to the US market and restarted production and promotion of export products [1][7] - In Longgang, Zhejiang, a surge in foreign trade has been observed with numerous US orders returning, leading to a busy production environment in packaging companies [3] - A high-tech company focused on food packaging is currently rushing to fulfill a batch of orders worth nearly $200,000 for the US market [5] Group 2 - Following the announcement of reduced tariffs, many foreign trade companies in Xiamen, Fujian, received urgent order requests from US clients [7] - A packaging technology company in Zhejiang has prioritized US orders, aiming for rapid delivery within 90 days and plans to establish subsidiaries in Mexico and Europe to adapt to tariff measures [8] - A shoe company reported that over 60% of its overseas business comes from the US, and after the tariff adjustments, it has started shipping previously accumulated inventory and received numerous new orders [10][11] Group 3 - A textile export company in Xiamen is actively shipping out previously accumulated inventory worth 10 million yuan and has received new orders totaling $2.7 million [13] - The general manager of a textile import-export company in Fujian emphasized the need to diversify by developing markets in other countries and launching a domestic brand this year [15]
如何把握汽车行业的投资节奏?
Huaan Securities· 2025-05-18 13:47
策略研究 周度报告 如何把握汽车行业的投资节奏? [Table_RptDate] 报告日期: 2025-05-18 [Table_Author] 分析师:郑小霞 执业证书号:S0010520080007 电话:13391921291 邮箱:zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师:刘超 执业证书号:S0010520090001 电话:13269985073 邮箱:liuchao@hazq.com 分析师:张运智 执业证书号:S0010523070001 电话:13699270398 邮箱:zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师:任思雨 执业证书号:S0010523070003 电话:18501373409 邮箱:rensy@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略周报《如何看待军工行情的持 续性?—第 19 周》2025-05-11 2.策略周报《如何看待银行股大跌及 配置价值?—第 18 周》2025-05-05 3.策略月报《持盈保泰—2025 年 5 月 A 股市场研判及配置机会》2025-04-27 4.策略周报《消费行业轮动,行至何阶 段?—第 16 周》2025-04-20 敬请参阅末页重要声明及评 ...
周一,开盘必读!
格兰投研· 2025-05-18 13:28
老规矩,先讲点宏观 川普又放炮, 昨天,川普又在社交平台上发帖,要求降息,继续给美联储施压。 但其实市场对美联储降息的预期反而减少了。 上周老美和我们发表联合声明,降关税的幅度是比较超预期的。新增的 34% 对等关税暂停了 24% ,只要 10% ,再加上之前芬太尼的 20%。 一共 30% ,比市场普遍预期的 54%少了不少。 关税超预期利好,美国经济衰退的可能性就会降低,美股市场没有那么多弯弯绕,直接上涨。 美联储自然也就不着急降息了。 华尔街的交易员,也把对美联储今年降息的押注从 75 个基点降到了约 55 个基点。 主要是因为关税的利好。 截至 到 今年 一季度 ,美联邦政府利息支出占总经常支出 的 比重 , 已经来到了 1 5.55% 。 现在节流太难了。 按照去年美国联邦政府经常性支出比重排序,社保开支 22% 、健康开支 13.5% 、医保开支 12% 、国防 开支 12.6% ,都属于深水区,再动,很不容易,马斯克不已经干不下去了吗? 能稍微运作一下的,只有债务利息开支 。这也是川普天天催饭原因。毕竟鲍威尔只要能配合降息,就能少 还不少利息、也能让国债收益率直接降下来。 周末交流下来,华尔街现 ...
352家美企联名施压后,美国财长终于松口:对华关税或有变化!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-18 08:04
Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated potential changes to tariffs on Chinese goods, responding to pressure from 352 American companies facing supply chain disruptions and rising costs [1][3][5] - The proposed adjustments are likely to focus on non-strategic consumer goods and intermediate products, aiming to alleviate inflation and reduce production costs for U.S. businesses [5][9][11] - Despite the Treasury's intentions, significant political hurdles remain, including opposition from hawkish lawmakers and the U.S. Trade Representative, who views tariffs as a critical leverage point [7][9][19] Group 2 - The ongoing inflation in the U.S., which has exceeded 5% for 18 consecutive months, and supply chain issues are driving the need for tariff adjustments [3][11][15] - The U.S. manufacturing sector has seen average cost increases of 12%, with household appliance prices rising by 23%, impacting low-income families significantly [11][13] - China's response includes a willingness to engage in dialogue, with high-level officials indicating that any negotiations must respect China's core interests [9][15][19] Group 3 - The potential tariff changes reflect a broader shift in U.S.-China relations, moving from confrontation to tentative engagement, driven by economic pressures on both sides [15][19] - The complexity of political dynamics in the U.S. suggests that any significant tariff relief will require extensive negotiations and may not occur swiftly [19] - The global economic landscape is also affected, with the WTO warning that continued trade tensions could lower global growth by 0.8% by 2025 [13][15]
黄金下跌的原因:其一中美关税和谈成功,其二美股美元开始回暖
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-18 06:37
现在我们要判断这一次黄金下跌是短期因素影响,还是开始走出下跌通道。我觉得目前黄金应该是进入 了一个调整周期,而不是短期波动,开始走入下行调整阶段。为什么?因为中美关税和谈之后,短期内 基本不会有大的波动,协议可能会执行一到三年,特朗普虽然可能搞新动作,但对世界不稳定因素的影 响会慢慢减小 —— 边际效应在递减,毕竟上一次关税战闹得那么凶最后也和谈了,市场对未来新动作 的担忧没那么强烈了。当市场担忧减少,黄金因避险情绪推动上涨的动力就没那么大,所以随着世界局 势慢慢稳定,黄金价格会逐步下行。 黄金最近开始下跌了,从国际金价 3500 美元跌到现在 3200 美元,国内的黄金首饰金价已经跌破了千 元。接下来黄金会怎么走?这一轮黄金暴跌的核心因素是什么?普通人现在到底应不应该砸锅卖铁去买 黄金?现在是不是合适抄底的时机?咱们今天来好好聊一聊。 首先这一轮黄金暴跌的底层逻辑是什么?就是中美之间的关税和谈。中美关税和谈成功之后,美股涨 了,美元涨了,那么黄金自然就得跌了 —— 因为美股上涨后,资金开始追逐风险资产,对避险资产的 需求就开始下降。第二个原因是美元跟黄金的跷跷板效应,美元涨黄金跌、美元跌黄金涨,这是几十年 ...
全球金融论坛|清华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩:制度性开放与内需提振须“双轮驱动”
本报记者 秦玉芳 深圳报道 田轩表示,在当前关税战背景下,可以看到我国在前几年提出的"双循环"格局和战略非常具有前瞻性, 特别是推进国内大循环对于应对当下不确定性显得尤为重要。不过,当前构建国内大循环仍面临内需不 足的现状,主要体现在企业投资意愿下降、居民消费意愿不振等方面。对此,田轩提出三点建议: 一是要进一步建设统一大市场,打通区域间人员、资本、数据等流动要素的壁垒,破除地方保护主义, 让生产要素高效流动。 二是动态评估现有"促消费"政策的有效性,是否真的起到了畅通国内大循环或者帮助企业发展新质生产 力和提振内需的作用;若实际效果未达预期,后续支持政策可能需要进一步加码。 田轩表示,尽管中美关税摩擦加剧了外贸企业压力,但中国市场的吸引力并未减弱。资本永远流向高回 报之地。当前中国企业估值处于低位,经济基本面稳健,叠加庞大的高素质人口和全球最大工程师群 体,形成了独特优势。同时,国家经贸、金融等制度持续开放,进一步增强了中国市场对外商投资的吸 引力。这一趋势,不会因为中美关税博弈而改变。 对于外贸企业来说,田轩认为,近期中美关税战对外贸企业造成了一定的冲击,当下对这些企业的政策 支持非常重要,如税收减免、贷 ...