Group 1 - The UK automotive industry is experiencing its most severe production downturn in decades, with May's total output plummeting 32.8% year-on-year to 49,810 vehicles, marking the lowest level since 1949, excluding the pandemic year of 2020 [1] - Cumulative production for the first five months of the year is approximately 348,200 vehicles, a 12.9% decline year-on-year, representing the lowest level for the same period since 1953 [1] - The UK automotive sector is facing a "low capacity crisis," with factories operating below capacity and increasing costs, leading to a decline in global competitiveness [1][3] Group 2 - Exports of UK cars to the US have dropped by 55.4% year-on-year, while exports to the EU market have decreased by 22.5%, prompting some manufacturers to halt exports or restructure production [1] - The recent trade agreement between the UK and the US is unlikely to fundamentally alleviate external pressures on the UK automotive industry, as it imposes a 10% additional tariff on the first 100,000 cars exported to the US, with a 25% tariff on any excess [2] - The UK government has announced a ten-year industrial development strategy aimed at supporting advanced manufacturing and clean energy, with a goal for the automotive sector to rank among the top 15 globally by 2030 and contribute approximately £50 billion (about $67.94 billion) to the economy over the next decade [2] Group 3 - Experts express skepticism regarding the effectiveness and timing of the government's industrial strategy, particularly in supporting the transition to electric vehicle production, citing high energy costs compared to the EU average [3] - Without decisive government intervention, the UK risks becoming merely a limited engineering development market rather than a true automotive manufacturing hub [3] Group 4 - Industry insiders are increasingly looking towards emerging markets, especially China, which has a rapidly growing electric vehicle sector and complete supply chain integration capabilities [4] - Attracting Chinese automotive manufacturers to invest in the UK should be a key focus of government policy, although high energy costs remain a significant barrier to investment [4]

农产品日报 | 2025-07-09 现货价格承压，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2935元/吨，较前日变动-2元/吨，幅度-0.07%；菜粕2509合约2576元/吨，较前日 变动-3元/吨，幅度-0.12%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2850元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差M09-85， 较前日变动-18；江苏地区豆粕现货2780元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M09-155，较前日变动-8；广东地区 豆粕现货价格2780元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M09-155，较前日变动-8。福建地区菜粕现货价格2580 元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM09+4，较前日变动+3。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部作物周报显示，截至7月6日当周，美国大豆优良率66%，一周前66%，上年同期68%， 与市场预期相符；大豆出苗率96%，一周前94%，上年同期98%；大豆开花率32%，一周前17%，上年同期32%； 大豆结荚率8%，一周前3%，上年同期8%。 市场分析 整体来看，近月到港维持千万吨级以上，油厂大豆和豆粕库存增加较快，预计在新季 ...

在上海虹桥机场，梅雨季过后的持续高温让停机坪化作50℃的巨大"烤盘"。中国航油虹桥航空加油站的 飞机加油员们面对酷暑迎难而上，坚守一线。暑运启动后，航班量伴随气温持续上升，全站日均完成航 班保障400余架次，加注航油3300余吨。为保障机坪作业人员能在高温环境下安全作业，虹桥航空加油 站党支部同步开展了"送清凉"慰问活动，每日为坚守岗位的一线员工送去防暑降温物资，传递组织关 怀；为一线员工购置了藿香正气水、清凉油等防暑降温药物，并设置应急医药箱，确保员工作业安全； 及时更换老旧饮水设备，优化员工休息环境。同时，党支部通过班前会做好员工健康评估，合理调配人 员和作业时间，避免长时间机坪作业，并及时做好高温天气下特种车辆设备检查及降温工作。 杭州"战场"守规范，汗衫浸透保安全 入夏以来，全国多地持续遭遇极端高温天气，华东地区热浪席卷。上海虹桥机场停机坪地表温度直逼 50℃，浙江机坪地表实测突破60℃，福建机坪地表温度甚至冲上70℃。当金属加油车被晒得烫手，橡胶 鞋底与地面接触时发出"滋滋"声响，酷暑"烤验"下，中国航油铁军始终坚守一线，以钢铁般的意志捍卫 着航空燃油供应的安全屏障。 中国航油高度重视暑期和汛期安全 ...

Group 1 - Apple announced a significant executive change with Jeff Williams transferring the COO role to Sabih Khan later this month, while Williams will continue to report to CEO Tim Cook and oversee the design team, Apple Watch, and health initiatives until his retirement later this year [1] - Jeff Williams has been with Apple since 1998, focusing on supply chain management and operations, and has played a crucial role in the development of Apple Watch and the company's health strategy [1] - Sabih Khan, who has been with Apple for 30 years and has been responsible for the global supply chain for the past six years, is seen as a suitable successor to Williams [2] Group 2 - Tim Cook praised Jeff Williams for his contributions, stating that without him, Apple would not have achieved its current success and highlighted the creation of one of the most respected global supply chains [2] - Sabih Khan is recognized as a strategist and a key architect of Apple's supply chain, having contributed to advanced manufacturing technologies and reducing Apple's carbon footprint by over 60% [2]

Group 1 - The core argument presented by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is that the notion of the renminbi becoming a major global reserve currency is a "fallacy," and he believes it will not achieve internationalization in the future [1][3] - Bessent's reasoning is based on the traditional view that "capital freedom of movement is a prerequisite for reserve currency," asserting that China's financial market is not sufficiently open, although technological advancements have rendered this standard outdated [3][5] - The cross-border payment system for renminbi is projected to handle 175.49 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 42.6% year-on-year increase, with participation from 1,683 financial institutions globally, creating a clearing network independent of the Western SWIFT system [3][9] Group 2 - Bessent's claim that 1.4 billion Chinese people wish to transfer assets abroad lacks data support; in 2024, the cross-border renminbi settlement volume is expected to reach 64.1 trillion yuan, with 74.5% of this being capital items primarily used for overseas investments by enterprises [5][7] - Nearly 50% of Chinese enterprises use renminbi for over 20% of their foreign investments, establishing a cycle of "using renminbi to procure Chinese manufacturing overseas" [5][7] - The inclusion of Chinese government bonds in major indices has led to a threefold increase in the scale of renminbi assets held by foreign central banks compared to five years ago, indicating a growing acceptance of the renminbi [5][7] Group 3 - The erosion of trust in the U.S. dollar is attributed to the U.S. itself, with a national debt of $36 trillion and a fiscal deficit of $1.7 trillion in 2023, leading to a decline in global confidence [7][9] - The weaponization of the dollar, exemplified by the freezing of Russian foreign reserves, has prompted many countries to reduce their dollar assets, with Saudi Arabia's dollar reserves dropping from 70% to 55% [7][9] - The rise of the renminbi is not merely a replacement for the dollar but represents a new paradigm, with cross-border supply chain finance addressing overseas receivables risks and enhancing the renminbi's role in the industrial chain [7][9] Group 4 - The digital renminbi pilot has expanded to 129 countries, with daily transaction peaks exceeding 1 trillion yuan, and new models are being explored to bind resources to currency [9] - The integration of onshore and offshore currency accounts in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and real-time cross-border payments through CIPS in ASEAN countries further facilitate renminbi internationalization [9] - The renminbi's internationalization is seen as an inevitable choice for mutual benefit, providing diverse asset allocation channels while mitigating exchange rate risks for other countries [9]

同样重要的是，投资者不应只关注一家企业的注册地，而应分析其更广泛的经济敞口。一家公司的收入基 础可能跨越多个地区，每个地区都面临不同的风险——尤其是在贸易紧张局势日益加剧的情况下。 虽然中美已暂时中止部分关税，但美国仍在考虑提高对欧洲商品的关税，进一步加剧了与欧盟的贸易争 端。尽管美国国际贸易法院5月28日就"解放日关税"作出了裁决，但整体不确定性仍然很高，使企业得长 期规划变得更复杂。 FactSet慧甚的GeoRev、供应链关系和RBICS数据能帮助投资者应对全球复杂性并量化企业的真实风险敞 口。其中，GeoRev提供了详细的地理收入分布，揭示了财务报表中未披露的区域性风险敞口，这在细分 市场数据有限的情况下至关重要，可以让投资者识别出贸易中断所影响的区域，例如正在进行的中美关税 冲突。 与此相辅相成的是，供应链关系数据反映了企业的一级和多层供应商及客户网络图谱，揭示了那些不易察 觉的潜在中断点。FactSet慧甚高级行业分类系统RBICS则结合了自上而下的市场相关性分析与自下而上 的产品细分分析，从而增强了行业和子行业层面的洞察。 上述三个工具共同帮助投资者评估企业在关键地理区域的风险暴露、供应链脆弱性 ...

Group 1 - OPEC+ surprised analysts by increasing production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding expectations of 411,000 barrels per day [1] - Eight OPEC+ members are expected to significantly increase production in September, with a total of 2.2 million barrels per day of previously reduced output returning to the market [1] - Despite the anticipated increase, analysts believe that the actual production increase may not be as substantial due to some producers operating below their quotas to compensate for previous overproduction [1] Group 2 - The current oil market appears tight in the short term, with no immediate concerns about oversupply, although a potential oversupply in the fall could pressure prices downward [1][4] - Saudi Arabia raised official crude prices for August shipments to Asia and Europe, betting on strong summer demand to absorb additional supply [1] - Brent crude prices are currently around $60 per barrel, which may encourage purchases from Asia, particularly from China [1] Group 3 - The recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, have led to fluctuations in oil prices, with a significant drop in imports expected in June due to high prices [2] - India's largest oil refiner views current Brent crude prices around $60 per barrel as a comfortable level, indicating potential for further price declines [2] - Analysts suggest that overall demand in Asia may be disappointing later in the summer due to the previous month's price spikes [2] Group 4 - ING analysts noted that the market remains tight in the short term, with expectations of oversupply materializing later in the year, which could lead to sustained downward pressure on prices [3] - The middle distillate market is tightening more than the crude oil market, with rising refining margins for natural gas [3] - U.S. middle distillate inventories are at their lowest levels in over two decades, indicating a potential supply constraint [3] Group 5 - Saxo Bank's report indicates that Saudi Aramco's price increases suggest a tight physical market capable of absorbing additional supply [4] - Short-term risks for oil prices appear controlled, with previous overproduction compensations offsetting new supply [4] - Analysts expect that unless there is a significant escalation in Middle Eastern tensions, oil prices are unlikely to exceed $70 per barrel for an extended period [4]

日经GO Switch 2供应短缺状况或于明年春季缓解 原创 阅读全文 ...

以山东地区为基准，今日 32%离子膜碱收于 810 元/吨，较上期价格环比+2.33%。主力下游企业采购液 碱价格上调且受液氯补贴影响，区域内企业开工负荷变动，供应量减少，液碱价格上调。 【市场状况分析】 期货研究 烧碱：短期偏强震荡 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 09合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2408 810 2531 123 2025 年 7 月 9 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 近期烧碱期货价格反弹，主要因液氯降价速度超预期，未来因液氯扰动导致烧碱被动减产可能性上升。 短期现货方面出现反弹，主要因价格低位，刺激市场阶段性补库需求。 从基本面看，7 月烧碱检修产能较 6 月减少明显，7 月检修主要集中在西北、华东，山东前期检修装置 将陆续重启。同时，烧碱 6-7 月份新增产能或达到 110 万吨，因此供应压力仍较大。需求端，非铝需求支撑 偏弱，氧化铝的烧碱库存偏高，不过出口方向支撑尚可，低价补库意愿较强。成本端，虽然 7 月份电价继续 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 09 日 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：巴基斯坦批准进口 50 万吨食糖；巴西中南部 MIX 同比大幅提高；印度季风降水高于 LPA； 巴西 6 月出口 336 万吨，同比增加 5%。中国 5 月进口食糖 35 万吨。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 24/25 榨季国内食糖产量为 1116 万吨，消费量为 1580 万吨，进口量为 500 万 吨；CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 1120 万吨，消费量为 1590 万吨，进口量为 500 万吨。中国糖业 协会数据显示，截至 5 月底，24/25 榨季全国共生产食糖 1116 万吨（+120 万吨），全国累计销售食糖 811 万 吨（+152 万吨），累计销糖率 72.7%。中国海关数据显示，截至 5 月底，24/25 榨季中国进口食糖 210 万吨 （-104 万吨）。 白糖：巴西出口增加 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...